Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Viet]

NATO Is a defensive pact? Hahhahaha. Okok.


Yes, Russia is having problems by growing and having import substitution while inflation is the only real growth in the West.

Yes NATO is defensive. Russia nuclear missiles from Königsberg just take minutes to nuke Europe, turning everything to ashes. Do you seriously think anyone in Europe would attack Russia? For what reason. Europe just needs cheap oil and gas from Russia, nothing else.

 

[vizier]

russians would target only areas who supports nazi ukraina regime, they have enough intel from field, they are not stupid.

meanwhile, tactical collapse of uaf in various directions continue, we should expect big gains by russian army in next months as the ukraina is second or none on list for weapons and more importantly ammunitions from west.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717808387537142232

Reports claim that Ukraine pours a high portion of its troops to Adviivka front including spec ops forces. Russia can expect Ukranian fpv drone attacks and artillery strikes and should prepare-dig in accordingly to newly established positions. If Russia gains air control soon by destorying Ukr sam systems(Ukr airforce is almost destroyed. Polish pilots claiming Ukranian pilots can do an f16 stunt later on so an eye needs to be kept open at all times for that surprise F16 attack by Awacs A-150 and other Su-35 patrols) those plain fields can and will be bombed with more ease. Still fab-500-1500 would be a good long range option if incoming Ukr troop positions are detected by Uavs(Orlan or high altitude variants)

 

[jhungary]

More articles that make like Putin is a genius / all knowing and Hamas or Arabs idiotic robots that can be manipulated by superior white Russians.

I am not in support of how Hamas went about it, but give them some credit for dreaming up something violent on their own withour Putin's wisdom. US intelligence knew when Russians were ordering more toilet paper to invade Ukraine months before, but somehow this bold move with Hamas went unnoticed? Hamas is capable of running its own terror campaign.

It was said that both US and Egypt warned Israel for something to happen in October and was ignored by the IDF.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/13/politics/us-intelligence-warnings-potential-gaza-clash-days-before-attack/index.html

Not sure how much is true in this, but asked an intelligence op friends in the Pentagon, my friend did not deny that.

 

[mulj]

Let's be honest. Ukraine has a government with a President whose mandate comes from Ukrainian people via Presidential elections. Russia does not gets to decide this matter for Ukrainian people. This is a common sense observation that seems to be missing. But dictator apologists do not seem to understand how democracy works. Ukraine was not attacking and colonizing other countries like Hitler, Russia is. The Nazi trope is to justify ongoing Russian colonization project.

honestly it is irrelevant now, west piped it to the drain all that democracy legitimacy stuff with ongoing palestine collective punishment by them, so nobody cares about technicalities anymore and might is right is new measure of things.
it is sad situation but eventually it had to emerge in that direction due common law of physics, now russia is gaining moral upper hand and everything that follows it.

Reports claim that Ukraine pours a high portion of its troops to Adviivka front including spec ops forces. Russia can expect Ukranian fpv drone attacks and artillery strikes and should prepare-dig in accordingly to newly established positions. If Russia gains air control soon by destorying Ukr sam systems(Ukr airforce is almost destroyed. Polish pilots claiming Ukranian pilots can do an f16 stunt later on so an eye needs to be kept open at all times for that surprise F16 attack by Awacs A-150 and other Su-35 patrols) those plain fields can and will be bombed with more ease. Still fab-500-1500 would be a good long range option if incoming Ukr troop positions are detected by Uavs(Orlan or high altitude variants)

i do not know if you are familiar with fact that in last couple of weeks uaf lost dozen of aircrafts due new russian missiles and it caused panic in western circles due f-35 vulnerability, apparently russians adapted and enhanced their toys to counter western armament, they also introduced their own "atmacking" capabilities by hitting uaf air defence assets, i think they are safe in that regard, drone saturation is another thing and can be dealt with massive SPAG deployment.

 

[jhungary]

In frontal assaults it is very risky before enemy artillery is suppressed but in encircled areas and limited enemy artillery like inside Avdiivka eastern parts city infiltration is possible in my opinion with smoke screens and apcs. Holding ground has better chance hiding inside buildings inside the city.

Last time the pincer movement was in open area in Avdiivka and before soldiers were able to dig in Ukraine transferred artillery to that region and stopped advance of Russian pincers. If Russia had more high altitude drone presence there next time it will be much more difficult for Ukranians. Manpads cannot reach 6000m and Ukr does not have sufficient airforce. Even if they detect it above there is not much to do unless they transfer high end systems like S300 or Buk in those areas.

Depends on what you mean by "more difficult"

An open assault on a static defensiable ground like the Russian pulled in Avdiivka is a hard feat to pull out, and even with modern mechanised military with proper air support would have suffer tremendous losses even if they can pull it out, and this version of Russian military just don't have enough power to do that. So with proper air support, (that is if they can get proper air support), this is only make Russian life a bit easier, but that is by no mean easy for Russian to pull out, and I just don't see it from a Command and Control point of view that Russia can pull this out with the current force they have. The issue with Russian force now is they need them to fill the line, there are only two choices for Russia if Avdiivka is on the table, withdraw some troop off the frontline and train them and then retrain them along with the entire command structure, or reuse the general troop that had been in place for Russian military and they aren't up to the task and would only get slaughtered.

However, this isn't really the only problem, or even the major problem Russia had, the problem I see is that Russia don't need to attempt this frontal assault from the beginning, if it was Russian 2022, they would have just place artillery around and bomb it to the ground like Mariupol style or at least Severodonetsk style. Doing what they did in Avdiivka is extremely stupid for Russia, now that tells me two things, either Russia do not have enough munition to level Avdiivka that's why they didn't do it, or Russia overflow with manpower and wanted to lose some........That is the only 2 reasons I can think of pulling stunt like this to begin with.

 

[vizier]

honestly it is irrelevant now, west piped it to the drain all that democracy legitimacy stuff with ongoing palestine collective punishment by them, so nobody cares about technicalities anymore and might is right is new measure of things.
it is sad situation but eventually it had to emerge in that direction due common law of physics, now russia is gaining moral upper hand and everything that follows it.


i do not know if you are familiar with fact that in last couple of weeks uaf lost dozen of aircrafts due new russian missiles and it caused panic in western circles due f-35 vulnerability, apparently russians adapted and enhanced their toys to counter western armament, they also introduced their own "atmacking" capabilities by hitting uaf air defence assets, i think they are safe in that regard, drone saturation is another thing and can be dealt with massive SPAG deployment.

If Ukr sams are decimated enough high altitude Uavs(Orion,Mohajer-6) can do wonders just like in Karabagh conflict with immunity from anti air attacks. Especially these are open plain fields and Ukranian vehicles like artillery will be exposed. One exception is just like Atacms secret delivery of F16s to Ukraine or F16s taking off from Romania or Poland, refuelling mid air and some Polish pilots are sent with F16s to take down Russian planes and drones and do some ground attack claiming these are Ukranian F16s and Ukr pilots(it will take a long time to train Ukranian pilots so the best option is someone else using these F16s to break sieges in Avdiivka and other areas). In that case to break down the surprise of F16s, Russian A-150 awacs can provide info as well as long range radars of Su-35s that would inform other interceptor planes and S300+s to the scene.

 

[mulj]

If Ukr sams are decimated enough high altitude Uavs(Orion,Mohajer-6) can do wonders just like in Karabagh conflict with immunity from anti air attacks. Especially these are open plain fields and Ukranian vehicles like artillery will be exposed. One exception is just like Atacms secret delivery of F16s to Ukraine or F16s taking off from Romania or Poland, refuelling mid air and some Polish pilots are sent with F16s to take down Russian planes and drones and do some ground attack claiming these are Ukranian F16s and Ukr pilots(it will take a long time to train Ukranian pilots so the best option is someone else using these F16s to break sieges in Avdiivka and other areas). In that case to break down the surprise of F16s, Russian A-150 awacs can provide info as well as long range radars of Su-35s that would inform other interceptor planes and S300+s to the scene.

that would be operational strategic change in decisive manner, for now russians are decimating and pummeling uaf field units if avdivka falls in next weeks their population in doneck area will be at ease from uaf shelling, that is huge moral boost for them.
on the other hand counter scenario that you mentioned is lees likely to happen from two reasons, it would mean open nato agression if polish pilots included and time and training for uaf pilots to do so, no f16 in their hand for certain time ahead.

 

[Deino]

Who CARES

This really isn't about Russia, who is far from the perfect state


We don't need Russians to win because they are good and moral and right

We need the Russians to win to defeat a western alliance who's hypocrisy and hubris has become unbearable

What a twisted logic, so you support a murder and robber and rapist only since you don't like an unknown and innocent neighbour who is supported by one "who's hypocrisy and hubris has become unbearable!" I hope for you that not you will have one day such a murder and robber and rapist in your neighbourhood

 

[jhungary]

If Ukr sams are decimated enough high altitude Uavs(Orion,Mohajer-6) can do wonders just like in Karabagh conflict with immunity from anti air attacks. Especially these are open plain fields and Ukranian vehicles like artillery will be exposed. One exception is just like Atacms secret delivery of F16s to Ukraine or F16s taking off from Romania or Poland, refuelling mid air and some Polish pilots are sent with F16s to take down Russian planes and drones and do some ground attack claiming these are Ukranian F16s and Ukr pilots(it will take a long time to train Ukranian pilots so the best option is someone else using these F16s to break sieges in Avdiivka and other areas). In that case to break down the surprise of F16s, Russian A-150 awacs can provide info as well as long range radars of Su-35s that would inform other interceptor planes and S300+s to the scene.

If it was this easy, the Russian would have tried that last May, or December, or even this May.

There is a very old saying, "you can't shoot what you can't see" and it's very obviously from day 1, Russia did not have a very good battlespace awareness. Which is odd given Russia should have enough equipment to do the task at hand, may not be as well as NATO, but certainly would have enough for Ukraine, you don't need NATO version of Battlespace awareness to fight in Ukraine.

The problem for these drone is, you need to know where your target is from, and the only way for you to do is to fly sorties over Ukraine and map out the threat. This is what and how we use EF-111 Raven during Desert Storm, otherwise they won't turn on their radar if you aren't attacking, which mean RuAF would need to shoulder majority of the work if they were gunning for Ukrainian SAM, which would mean attrition for Russian Air Force. and this is something I have a feeling Russia don't want to put their position in, again, it's quite evident that they don't even launch sorties to protect Russian Occupation Zone from Ballistic Missile or even drone threat, or even drone threat inside Russia.

And unless Russia start pushing their Air Asset inside Ukraine, they aren't going to be able to target SAM structure, and for the Ukrainian, their Anti-Air Defence would just get better as time went on with more Western Donation with more IRIS-T and NASAM or even Patriot promised by the West, so it's not going to be easier down the road for Russia.

 

[vizier]

Depends on what you mean by "more difficult"

An open assault on a static defensiable ground like the Russian pulled in Avdiivka is a hard feat to pull out, and even with modern mechanised military with proper air support would have suffer tremendous losses even if they can pull it out, and this version of Russian military just don't have enough power to do that. So with proper air support, (that is if they can get proper air support), this is only make Russian life a bit easier, but that is by no mean easy for Russian to pull out, and I just don't see it from a Command and Control point of view that Russia can pull this out with the current force they have. The issue with Russian force now is they need them to fill the line, there are only two choices for Russia if Avdiivka is on the table, withdraw some troop off the frontline and train them and then retrain them along with the entire command structure, or reuse the general troop that had been in place for Russian military and they aren't up to the task and would only get slaughtered.

However, this isn't really the only problem, or even the major problem Russia had, the problem I see is that Russia don't need to attempt this frontal assault from the beginning, if it was Russian 2022, they would have just place artillery around and bomb it to the ground like Mariupol style or at least Severodonetsk style. Doing what they did in Avdiivka is extremely stupid for Russia, now that tells me two things, either Russia do not have enough munition to level Avdiivka that's why they didn't do it, or Russia overflow with manpower and wanted to lose some........That is the only 2 reasons I can think of pulling stunt like this to begin with.

Pincer movement will enclose around 15k Ukranian troops in Avdiivka. If they are taken prisoner then it will force Zelensky to the table. Maybe that was the Russian planned risk to be taken instead of house to house long time consuming costly conflict like in Bakhmut. But the mistake prior was not calculation of Ukranian drone coordinated artillery precision strikes and cluster ammunition so holding ground was very difficult and costly for Russians. As you mentioned combined attack will be very difficult for Russia but layer by layer each defense of Ukraine can be penetrated in an orderly fashion seperately by airforce-droneforces and land forces and Ukraine cannot resupply them. First airforce-elint can attack sams just like Usa had taken time to degrade Iraqi sam systems and then entered. Second stage would be Orion high altitude drones to enter and clean out artillery and other vehicles Karabagh style. Third the land forces can demine the area around Avidiivka and close the pincers and dig in before Ukraine brings in more artillery-fpv support. If Ukraine brings in support and dont have high altitude sams they will still be hunted by Orion drones from 7000m. The problem is Russia needs to take care of Ukranian sam systems completely first around Avdiivka and other areas of contact.

 

[mulj]

What a twisted logic, so you support a murder and robber and rapist only since you don't like an unknown and innocent neighbour who is supported by one "who's hypocrisy and hubris has become unbearable!" I hope for you that not you will have one day such a murder and robber and rapist in your neighbourhood

you do that in palestine, no more moral lectures.

 

[jhungary]

Pincer movement will enclose around 15k Ukranian troops in Avdiivka. If they are taken prisoner then it will force Zelensky to the table. Maybe that was the Russian planned risk to be taken instead of house to house long time consuming costly conflict like in Bakhmut. But the mistake prior was not calculation of Ukranian drone coordinated artillery precision strikes and cluster ammunition so holding ground was very difficult and costly for Russians. As you mentioned combined attack will be very difficult for Russia but layer by layer each defense of Ukraine can be penetrated in an orderly fashion seperately by airforce-droneforces and land forces and Ukraine cannot resupply them. First airforce-elint can attack sams just like Usa had taken time to degrade Iraqi sam systems and then entered. Second stage would be Orion high altitude drones to enter and clean out artillery and other vehicles Karabagh style. Third the land forces can demine the area around Avidiivka and close the pincers and dig in before Ukraine brings in more artillery-fpv support. If Ukraine brings in support and dont have high altitude sams they will still be hunted by Orion drones from 7000m. The problem is Russia needs to take care of Ukranian sam systems completely first around Avdiivka and other areas of contact.

Well, that is IF they can put enough force to pincer on Avdiivka, and that's a big IF that's what I was saying. I mean If I can pincer any enemy, then by that definition I will win every battle.........

You can't just go and have the recruit to do this and expect them to succeed, they will end up charging into the enemy defence because you don't have enough training and experience to do group maneuver, let alone complicated act like going house to house and door to door.

Again, if you choose the wrong way to fight according to your troop, then that's the definition of command failure, because you are supposed to know your limit and your troop limits. And as I said either they were pushed to this attack or they are just breaking out a dice and let the luck of the draw and decided on launching a frontal assault on open ground, eitherway that's a command failure, and that's the worse kind in an active war.

If Russia want to take Avdviika, they need to have enough trained troop to push it more, drone alone will not help them in this venture, because it's the command and troop problem, apart from they suddenly appointed some genius tactician and everyone under his command know what to do, that's no way, no how, they will need to get to that level before they can try something on that. And the problem is, they aren't at that level, and that is not even RuAF suddenly become competent can help, because at the end of the day, you still need to go in and finish the job. You can't have the Air Force or Drone to fight 95% of the battle for you...That's the issue here.

 

[vizier]

If it was this easy, the Russian would have tried that last May, or December, or even this May.

There is a very old saying, "you can't shoot what you can't see" and it's very obviously from day 1, Russia did not have a very good battlespace awareness. Which is odd given Russia should have enough equipment to do the task at hand, may not be as well as NATO, but certainly would have enough for Ukraine, you don't need NATO version of Battlespace awareness to fight in Ukraine.

The problem for these drone is, you need to know where your target is from, and the only way for you to do is to fly sorties over Ukraine and map out the threat. This is what and how we use EF-111 Raven during Desert Storm, otherwise they won't turn on their radar if you aren't attacking, which mean RuAF would need to shoulder majority of the work if they were gunning for Ukrainian SAM, which would mean attrition for Russian Air Force. and this is something I have a feeling Russia don't want to put their position in, again, it's quite evident that they don't even launch sorties to protect Russian Occupation Zone from Ballistic Missile or even drone threat, or even drone threat inside Russia.

And unless Russia start pushing their Air Asset inside Ukraine, they aren't going to be able to target SAM structure, and for the Ukrainian, their Anti-Air Defence would just get better as time went on with more Western Donation with more IRIS-T and NASAM or even Patriot promised by the West, so it's not going to be easier down the road for Russia.

Nasams has 50km range. iris-t is about 30km. Russian basic Fab-250 is 80km. What Russia lacks is sufficient elint-pods on planes and sufficient high altitude drone production(Orion). When radars are silent some number of Orion can enter to hunt for Ukranian artillery even if they are downed by opening Ukranian radars(Orions need to have rwrs installed to alert elint aircraft) later on Sams like iris-T, Nasams are much more costly than Orion. Some R 37 a2a hypersonic long range missiles can be converted to air to ground anti radar role to hunt Patriots with less costs as well but systems like Patriot are not mobile. They are around Kiev and similar. I dont think Ukraine can bring them easily close to Avdiivka or similar.

 

[jhungary]

Nasams has 50km range. iris-t is about 30km. Russian basic Fab-250 is 80km. What Russia lacks is sufficient elint-pods on planes and sufficient high altitude drone production(Orion). When radars are silent some number of Orion can enter to hunt for Ukranian artillery even if they are downed by opening Ukranian radars later on Sams like iris-T, Nasams are much more costly than Orion. Some R 37 a2a hypersonic long range missiles can be converted to air to ground anti radar role to hunt Patriots with less costs as well but systems like Patriot are not mobile. They are around Kiev and similar. I dont think Ukraine can bring them easily close to Avdiivka or similar.

Again, you need to know where those are before you can attack, no one will turn on their radar if you don't fly your sorties inside their attack range, I mean nobody is going to turn on their radar if they can't attack, that's the problem it's not whether you can reach stand off range.......

There are 2 issue.

1.) You need to get them when they target you, because that's how you know where they are, it's no point to have a formation flying bait and then leave and have another group to come in and finish the job, they may move.

2.) You need to have the capability to attack the entire system in one go, for example, a Patriot System is not just 1 truck, it's 12 systems, with land base radar, search radar and multiple TEL, if you go in and cannot completely destroyed the ENTIRE system, that's pointless. Because each system have backup to the backup. Which mean if you hit a TEL here and there, it won't eat up to their Anti-Air Capability. Which mean you are talking about a major Air Op with maybe even up to 50% of Russian Air Asset flying into Ukraine and attack anything and everything at once, and that is going to have serious attrition for Russia, because you will be reached in order for you to reach someone. And as I said, this is what Russia don't want to do.

I mean, if they aren't even putting out sorties on their own soil and try to fend off drone and missile attack and what not, what make you think they will do it to cover the entire Ukraine............

 

[hussain0216]

What a twisted logic, so you support a murder and robber and rapist only since you don't like an unknown and innocent neighbour who is supported by one "who's hypocrisy and hubris has become unbearable!" I hope for you that not you will have one day such a murder and robber and rapist in your neighbourhood

Why is it only acceptable for the west to support murder and slaughter in Gaza?

Why are white lives worth more then Palestinians?