Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[ZeGerman]

How much of Europe’s gas storage is filled

Tracking the latest figures as the EU races to fill storage sites to an 80% target by Oct.1, when the European heating season begins.

graphics.reuters.com

Europe's gas prices reach three-month low as demand falls

Gas prices have fallen as the EU's gas storage facilities hit 90% of capacity. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Opec can reduce production but worldwide recession is coming. Last time it caused a fivefold decrease of gas and oil prices.

Russia managed to dampen the economic hit from sanctions with the high gas/oil prices….but that is going to end soon…

 

[Cash GK]

Really naive to think so.......

On top of my head, the first thing US can do, and most probably WILL DO in the near future is increase oil production and drive down the price, US wasn't really depending on Oil and Gas sector to survive, with price cap, and if US expand shale oil/gas extraction by 2 Millon barrel a day to 4 million barrel a day, it will drive oil price down to below $60, which mean Russia will be losing money by selling oil to China and India on discount. That's number 1.

Another thing US can do is to go after ALL essential machine and tooling, US provide a lot of advance machine tooling to Russia even after sanction because it deems essential for Russian Population (Same reason why Samsung or Apple has not left Russia), if that stop, in 3 to 6 months, it will take down Russian advance production capability, and they can't buy them from China, because US sell them to China. Things like integrated IC circuit and High Density Aluminium product.

Things EU can do is first of all, CUT RUSSIA COMPLETELY off SWIFT. This still has not done. Second, EU can dip into their vast undersea shale, which would also drive oil and gas price down. And finally, EU

If you find a post triggering then report it instead of responding in kind or worse. You could be penalized for this post but I have showed leniency for now.


But USA is NOT trying to colonize Syria and other countries.

A war can be fought for fulfillment of LIMITED political objectives in a particular region:

Americans wanted to dismantle Al-Qaeda Network in Afghanistan (Operation Enduring Freedom) = objective accomplished.
Americans wanted to bring an end to Saddam regime in Iraq (Operation Iraqi Freedom) = objective accomplished.
Americans wanted to bring an end to Qaddafi regime in Libya (Operation Odyssey Dawn) = objective accomplished.
Americans wanted to bring an end to ISIS

You are a funny ma You still believe in that shit.... usa sale one botel in tthree deferent labels 🏷

1 Democracy: Iraq war was fought with democracy tital
2 Humenrights:. Syrian war was fought with all three titles. Human rights terrorism and democracy
3 Terrorism.:Afghanistan war was fought with label of terrorism
These are their textbook methods for every war..

 

[jhungary]

lol, Russian at its best.......

Putin : IT's EU fault for creating the Energy Crisis

Also Putin : Russia can still send gas to Europe thru Nord Stream 2.....

I mean, com'on.......

You are a funny ma You still believe in that shit.... usa sale one botel in tthree deferent labels 🏷

1 Democracy: Iraq war was fought with democracy tital
2 Humenrights:. Syrian war was fought with all three titles. Human rights terrorism and democracy
3 Terrorism.:Afghanistan war was fought with label of terrorism
These are their textbook methods for every war..

Well, I don't just "Believe" in that shit, I believe in what my friend LIVING IN RUSSIA had told me.

Again, if you think Russia is that rosy, maybe you should move to Russia from where ever you are??

 

[MeFishToo]

The planned oil price cap is unlikely to be successful.. the West can declare it, but the Global South (and especially OPEC) won't adhere to it.. the fact that OPEC chose to decrease production even at the risk of provoking the US's wrath is proof that they wont allow the West to dictate the price of oil... same with the rest of the Global South, most are commodity producers and exporters, if the West succeeded in capping (or fixing) the price of Russian oil, what will keep the West from doing the same with other commodities and against other countries whenever they feel like it..?



If oil price goes down to below $60, shale oil producers will go out of business... even at $80, most shale oil producer will be thinking very hard before investing in additional production again.. $100 oil is likely the price where shale oil producers will start to feel comfortable to begin large scale investment and production.

Lets say Shale oil production needs a price above $80. Then OPEC has to keep the price below those $80, because of the massive shale oil deposits on North America. Combined shale oil deposits in Europe are even on par with Russia. OPEC has somewhat monopoly on cheap oil, but not on oil as such. Oil prices above $100 is abnormal.

 

[The SC]

 

[jhungary]

If oil price goes down to below $60, shale oil producers will go out of business... even at $80, most shale oil producer will be thinking very hard before investing in additional production again.. $100 oil is likely the price where shale oil producers will start to feel comfortable to begin large scale investment and production.

No, shale oil company will not go out of business, Russia will. Oil took around 50 a barrel to extra, then you have tax and finally refining them into final product, there are a lot of profit margin for oil company.

Bear in mind Brent Price is hovering around 53 - 64 between 18'- 19' then drop to < 40 during COVID. If US Shale oil producer will go out of business below 60, they would have 4 or 5 years ago.

$100 a barrel is NOT AT ALL sustainable, that's what OPEC want, but that's not consumer want, and that's what US President wouldn't allow because POTUS need population support to be re-elected, you can't get re-elected if oil is at $100 a barrel..

The planned oil price cap is unlikely to be successful.. the West can declare it, but the Global South (and especially OPEC) won't adhere to it.. the fact that OPEC chose to decrease production even at the risk of provoking the US's wrath is proof that they wont allow the West to dictate the price of oil... same with the rest of the Global South, most are commodity producers and exporters, if the West succeeded in capping (or fixing) the price of Russian oil, what will keep the West from doing the same with other commodities and against other countries whenever they feel like it..?

THe problem is, it's NOT OPEC who dictate oil price, it's always the consumer, for example, during COVID shut down, everyone not buying oil, Brent Dropped below $40 a barrel, do you think OPEC want to get $40 a barrel? I don't think so.

The factor that determined oil price more or less based on consumer demand. Which mean how much the developed economy need. Which in term mean who have the best economic activities would dictate the oil price, because if their demand high, oil price high, and their demand low, oil price lower. That's the battle between US, EU and China. Each has roughly 1/4 share of world economy, which today is more like a Mexican standoff....

 

[Paul2]

But then that would mean we are facing a Russia that with nothing left to lose other than potato.....Russia may actually goes with Nuclear Option.

I would argue that USA desperately needs something to make its Western allies to fear Russia more to restart the Western alliance.

If few megatons looming above EU capitals is not a threat big enough. It's only logical to  force that scenario; while the cost is  only few megatons, and not the disintegration of Western alliance as a whole.

The cost for the US of a Suez scenario will be incomparable to what UK had in Suez. We had the US to take over, but there will be no big brother for the US.

Really, few mirvs flying into an EU capital, now, and moscow being subsequently Drezdenised by a combined NATO force would be the  BEST possible scenario for the Western alliance.

 

[kingQamaR]

Fracking isn't going to produce cheap energy though and won't lower prices because they're set globally. It's a supply stop gap until cheap renewables take over - No amount of shale gas from hundreds of wells dotted across rural England would be enough to lower the European price any time soon. And with the best will in the world, private companies are not going to sell the shale gas they produce to UK consumers below the market price. They are not charities, but then again energy companies will make a tidy proffit

 

[Hack-Hook]

This war is pretty much about Bragging, from all the killing and bombing both side posted on social media, if you think Iranian drone work like what they say, they wouldn't post feed of those drone like they did with TB-2 or Switchblade? I found it hard to believe.

Also, it is the RUSSIAN, not Iranian who are using those drone, if they killed Ukrainian Artillery with those, they will MOST CERTAINLY post the kill shot online.

if we want brag , we do like what we did with Kurd terrorists in Iraq send a uav with the capability and that film it, why destroy good cameras and communication device on a suicide uavs that supposed to hit stationary target, to raise production cost and make the design more complex ?
and no war is not about bragging , its about killing and destroying enemy equipment

You mean what never work like that? The logistic or how Shahed was used?

logistics .for example you don't stash 100 missile beside himrass , or 500 shell beside each cannon it defeat the mobility ideology behind the system

 

[kingQamaR]

If the Germans got their finger out as in supplying the Ukraine with the promised Depard anti aircraft tanks they could take out these drones with ease as their radar can deal with up to 200 targets at any one time and using AI can prioritise targets in nano seconds and deal with them just as quick.

 

[MeFishToo]

Fracking isn't going to produce cheap energy though and won't lower prices because they're set globally. It's a supply stop gap until cheap renewables take over - No amount of shale gas from hundreds of wells dotted across rural England would be enough to lower the European price any time soon. And with the best will in the world, private companies are not going to sell the shale gas they produce to UK consumers below the market price. They are not charities, but then again energy companies will make a tidy proffit

Energy prices in a country is mostly defined by taxes or subsidies. Gasoline prices vary from $0.02 to $3 per liter across the world. Its just a matter of politics. More than half the price of gasoline in my country is taxes.

The major peak in natural gas prices is leading industries to temporarily shift to coal or other forms of energy. Eventually falling demands for an unstable energy source will make gas prices fall back to normal.

Next year were all fine. Maybe Putin will even be asking for forgiveness ..

 

[MeFishToo]

If the Germans got their finger out as in supplying the Ukraine with the promised Depard anti aircraft tanks they could take out these drones with ease as their radar can deal with up to 200 targets at any one time and using AI can prioritise targets in nano seconds and deal with them just as quick.

I just dont think Germany has a fleet of working Gepards standing ready. Germany just woke up after decades of a collective naive understanding of the security situation in Europe - like most european countries. People honestly believed war was something from the past never to happen again.
They may have a hi-tech arms industry, but mostly meant for export.

 

[Paul2]

I just dont think Germany has a fleet of working Gepards standing ready. Germany just woke up after decades of a collective naive understanding of the security situation in Europe - like most european countries. People honestly believed war was something from the past never to happen again.
They may have a hi-tech arms industry, but mostly meant for export.

Three critical theses:

1. European major powers categorically refused to believe in 2nd military in the world sitting at its doorsteps coming, and raping them
2. To this day, these fools are still trying to play games with moscow, and not take it seriously. Like the foolish idea of keeping russia alive to "ballance" the US
3. Point 1, and point 2, put Major Powers in opposition to the US — the only power out there in the world to save their asses if commies are to go for them

The conception of the Western alliance is dysfunctional, and not viable if US needs to defend EU, while EU does not want to be defended, clinging to the insane belief that "this can't happen to us," and that crazy Ivan will, for some reason, not rape them, like he did Ukrainians.

In years prior to WW2, the folly of The Major Powers was underestimating the German military, while now their folly is refusing to believe the threat exists as such.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580295103088066560

 

[kingQamaR]

I just dont think Germany has a fleet of working Gepards standing ready. Germany just woke up after decades of a collective naive understanding of the security situation in Europe - like most european countries. People honestly believed war was something from the past never to happen again.
They may have a hi-tech arms industry, but mostly meant for export.

Germany handed Ukraine another six Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled artillery guns along with ammunition.

This follows from the updated list of military supplies, posted on the of the German Federal Government, Ukrinform reports.

A total of 6,000 anti-aircraft munitions pieces go along with the self-propelled guns. Also, 3,000 shells for 155-mm artillery were handed over.

Thus, the Armed Forces of Ukraine already have in service a total of 30 Gepards