Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685394448530743296

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685392145497075712

 

[Paul2]

And here he outs White House's bet on "Russia wearing out"

1. Politicians don't say such things revealing war strategy
2. If they knows, that the enemy knows that they know, the enemy will change his strategy
3. Russia has long corrected for this strategy by matching forward cheap, replaceable, low value units, which Russia had in abundance. That has happened closer to October
4. Russia can push forward canno fodder with 1 mortar and machine gun per section for a really long time

 

[aviator_fan]

Just like bakhmut was debunked

You still in that delusion: even the Wagner forces that were instrumental in taking it realized it wasn't worth it. Wagner announced its withdrawal after 'taking it over' because they knew their positions would be exposed and it had no strategic significance to gain that town. And then finally retribution was a attack Russian forces on way to Moscow.

That action and humiliation of Russians to have its own fighting force rebel against it, make a path towards the capital and then reach a negotiated settlement was worth 'losing' Bakhmut way more than you can imagine

And here he outs White House's bet on "Russia wearing out"

1. Politicians don't say such things revealing war strategy
2. If they knows, that the enemy knows that they know, the enemy will change his strategy
3. Russia has long corrected for this strategy by matching forward cheap, replaceable, low value units, which Russia had in abundance. That has happened closer to October
4. Russia can push forward canno fodder with 1 mortar and machine gun per section for a really long time

Nothing revealing here. This is a well known conjecture that idea is to humiliate and thwart advance. Lets see where you see this 'Russia push forward' plan work out while their economy tanks and inflation escalates

 

[F-22Raptor]

And here he outs White House's bet on "Russia wearing out"

1. Politicians don't say such things revealing war strategy
2. If they knows, that the enemy knows that they know, the enemy will change his strategy
3. Russia has long corrected for this strategy by matching forward cheap, replaceable, low value units, which Russia had in abundance. That has happened closer to October
4. Russia can push forward canno fodder with 1 mortar and machine gun per section for a really long time

Russia can’t sustain this war at its current armor loss rates. Another year, maybe two.

Total tank losses alone will reach 3,000 by the end of the year.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685595281474088960

 

[Viet]

Putin sees money on his eyes.
99 percent of wars is always about money, lands, people and minerals.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685302899281100801

 

[aviator_fan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685486180693938176

Today there was another drone strike towards Moscow. These attempts don't result in strategic gain for Ukraine. I don't know what their plan was by conducting this attack. But as these increase Kyiv and other parts would be targeted more with attacks by Russia. It will only result in escalation of the conflict not in favor for Ukraine. These would result in further escalation like already Russia retreated from the grain deal.

Maybe Russian allied countries like China and Iran can offer a dense shorad-air defence line sourth of Moscow to stop low flying drones. In return for a negotiated deescalation zone like for example Russia won't conduct attacks to Kyiv,Lviv, Ternopil and similar areas west of Dnieper. The defense line would stop future attacks practically even if Ukraine is unwilling to stop these attacks and Russia won't conduct escalatory attacks towards Ukranian mentioned regions after these types of failed attacks as a one sided deescalation decision. This would in turn deescalate the conflict in my opinion from the Ukranian side as well opposing the current policies of their govt. Hitting moscow with drones won't grant any gain for Ukraine anyways other than the escalation of the conflict. The ad equipment should not be used in conflict zones by Russia but only south of Moscow as a security line and deescalation option for Russia to hit less parts of Ukraine. Also it would be an opportunity for Nato to conduct sigint data for Chinese and possible Iraninan shorads by drones so these countries would take this into account and take measures like connecting the shorads to main Russian radar network and not emitting their latest eccm to Ukranian drones and other possible measures. Usa and other Ukr allied countries don't advocate Ukraine hitting parts like Moscow at least not openly. This measure would also result in stopping of Russian attacks west of Dnieper except several regions like Odessa and west Kherson. There is nothing to say in my opinion from Ukranian side towards this type of measure.

Odessa for the list is a different issue however which can be included to non-hitting zones if Ukraine stops hitting Crimea. In return it can be negotiated with Russia that they would pull out significant part of their aviation from Crimea to airbases deep inside their territories and won't use Crimean airbases for attack inside Ukraine. They would use the bases only temporarily and defensively if counteroffensive happens like to host helicopters and Su25s. Aviation pull out is probably the current case as well since this area is continiously targeted by Ukraine Russia could have already pulled their air forces considerably from that area. West of Kherson can be used as a grouping point for a Ukranian bridgehead operation to estern Kherson so it can't be included to the list as well as other cities of Ukraine east of Dniepr yet. Also Russian cities close to Ukraine can still be targeted by Ukraine but Russia can opt for hitting east of Dnieper in such cases instead of deescalation zones like Kyiv. Also airbases that are detected to be used to carry out storm shadow cruise missile attacks can't be included as well. The deescalation measure for these airbases can be Russia won't attack deescalation zone airbases unless as a one time retaliatory attack against a Ukranian storm shadow cruise missile attack or similar everytime an attack is detected coming from one of these airbases. If f16s are transferred airbases hosting the planes west of Dnieper cannot be included to the list as well. Also in east of Dnieper hitting the arms depots and supply depots as well as a/d of Ukraine is enough to stop counteroffensives as a priority target. Manpower like Ukr. conscript groupings dormitories etc. are not direct threats to Russian positions unless actively charging to breach Russian lines so it would be a good deescalation measure to put these types of targets as a reduced level of threat and focus on other targets.

Since the stronger side here is Russia they can make more flexible decisions to offer deescalation options towards Ukraine especially if some support and security guarantees are provided by their allies. If deescalation measures work I think this will turn Ukranian conflict to a local conflict first not involving whole of Ukraine and the threat level excuses put forward by war escalation supporters can be reduced considerably. Then a negotiation option can emerge for both sides again where 4 regions returning back to Ukraine in a process without a war which can be negotiated with a new Minsk 2 type of agreement imporving its flaws and giving both sides security guarantees. Otherwise this escalation spiral will continue for the worse as everyone guesses.

There is certainly strategic gain: its intended to make Putin look weak. For the price of a few drones in the capital of the attacking country, it makes Putin look weak, not able to protect its citizens, and if it erodes citizen morale by another 1%, then its worth it.

Same strategy employed by Taliban and suicide bombings in the heart of Kabul killing civilians. Its for the same effect (successfully), but with a much higher loss of life.

And this escalation path is debunked: you think Russia is 'sparing' anything of significance. They have been attacking every where that it makes sense and waste ammunition. Last week it was Odessa. When they stop attacking Kiev, its not because Russia has become compassionate. Its because they are making sure the missiles they use (and preserve) has some impact. Lobbing out missiles at the capital knocking out concrete buildings for no effect is useless.

Either its a full negotiated settlement or nothing. It can't be a tit for tat: Ukraine doesn't attack Moscow if Russia doesn't attack Odessa but attacks cities everwhere else.

 

[Hack-Hook]

It is pointless responding to you. Any sane person can see the russian barrel is pointing away from the column and the smoke from the barrel when it fires (and the explosions near the column happen without the russian tank firing). You just refuse to admit this footage and header is a pro russian attempt to shape the narrative.

have you considered something else for example artillery or lancet or atgm , if they are not moving it can't be mines

 

[ZeGerman]

have you considered something else for example artillery or lancet or atgm , if they are not moving it can't be mines

To me it looked like multiple causes.
When this video was first posted by russian twitterbots that was also the “gist”. That they fell trap into a preset “killbox”.

Now it suddenly turned into “hero lone tank”

 

[Hack-Hook]

To me it looked like multiple causes.
When this video was first posted by russian twitterbots that was also the “gist”. That they fell trap into a preset “killbox”.

Now it suddenly turned into “hero lone tank”

there never is a hero lone anything . anything alone will be obliterated in any scenario in warfare
claiming a lone tank destroyed the column is as ridiculous as the claims of 95% kinzhal interception Ukraine were made

 

[MeFishToo]

have you considered something else for example artillery or lancet or atgm , if they are not moving it can't be mines

What makes you think they arent moving? I never said they werent. Thats the pro russian take on it, trying to explain how a russian tank is destrying them while pointing its barrel in another direction and no smoke comming from it.
Its from the start of the offensive. Not the first footage showing ukrainian vehicles being damaged by mines trying to bypass another vehicle damaged by a mine.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685686657100414976

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685659533752872960

 

[Viet]

Russia can’t sustain this war at its current armor loss rates. Another year, maybe two.

Total tank losses alone will reach 3,000 by the end of the year.

Russia is a poor version of USSR.

Putin makes Russia poorer.

USSR had industrial might, lots of allies. The Soviet Union shared with the US half of the world.

What has Russia? What Putin has achieved? Almost zero. Nuclear, weapons, oil, gas industry. Then comes nothing. Even grains in Russia are of lower quality than those in Ukraine. That’s why even Africa wants Ukraine grains. China wants Ukraine grains.

 

[Vergennes]

Imagine losing in a few days the progress it took you weeks to achieve despite throwing everything in that front and russian milbloggers and vatniks telling us how Russians would push the Ukrainians back to the oskil river.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685689071589343232

 

[aziqbal]

Russia can’t sustain this war at its current armor loss rates. Another year, maybe two.

Total tank losses alone will reach 3,000 by the end of the year.

please at some time common sense has to prevail

Russia cant sustain a war? its like saying Ocean ran out of water

its impossible