At this point the battle will be decided in Bakhmut, kramatorsk and slovansk.. All of Ukraines forces once defeated there it could be over as Ukraine may not have anything left to protect other places..
Zelensky is being bullish about Bakhmut but also Ukraines best forces and over 50% of its forces were located anyways in that sector since 2015 facing of the rebels..
@jhungary what is your take on this
My take? I think I have made my assertion many time before. But I will group up my thought here.
If I were the Russian
Leave Bakhmut now, it's taking too long and having to exert your force too long to try to take the city, I know there is going to be an Ukrainian counter offensive coming, but I don't know where. If I were the Russian, I would need those troop building defensive position around the likely point of attack. Any day the Russian keep devoting resource to try and take Bakhmut is a day they could have use those resource to build defensive line around critical location.
Offensive is you take 1 step forward 2 steps back, if the Spring offensive for Russia only can get to Bakhmut, which mean you will be expected to get rolled back all the way back to Popasna or even Hirsky. The attack more or less had failed, if they did not withdraw from Bakhmut and prepare for a counter attack coming in June/July-ish, you are looking at a chance you lose it all, that's how the Soviet encircle the German 6th Army in Stalingrad back in WW2 in case you are wondering. You focusing on a city, you can't quite get and failed to notice the build up around you, and when they launch in overwhelming number, your lines are going to get crush, if Russia keep fighting in Bakhmut, chances is high this will happen to them
If I were the Ukrainian
I would have withdraw from Bakhmut already., I wouldn't waste my resource defend that city, using the old strategy, kill as many Russian trying to hold a town, and then leave. Defend the next town and repeat and rinse, then wait for the big event. The counter attack. Bakhmut is not at all essential to even get to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. You have around 6 or 7 towns in between, and holding Bakhmut for over 9 months, means the Ukrainian would most likely have made very good defensive position behind Bakhmut, I would rather defend those position and make every subsequent town Russia try to take into bakhmut, this is what I would prefer to do.
The main event for the Ukrianian is not defending Bakhmut or Chariv Yar or Vasylivka, the main event for Ukraine should be and must be on the Counter Offensive with the 3 newly formed Armour Brigade with the Western Tank. That is what they should focus on, so when they reinforce the line instead of pulling out, that's a degraded defensive position you are talking about, you are going to suffer more casualty than an intact and prepared defensive position. Which mean anyone Ukrainian lost now would not be able to get them into the main event of the counter offensive, that's for me is a strategic error for the Ukrainian.
Overall, I don't see how Russia can roll over Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and take the entire Donbas, those are pretty big city, and you can't just attack them head on like you do with Bakhmut, and the distant between Bakhmut and those cities is still quite huge, there are still some city in between as big as Bakhmut Chariv Yar, Vasylivka and then you are talking about the twin citiies themselves, home to a million people each, if it take the Russian 7 months to take Bakhmut (assuming they can do it before April) it will take roughly 1 to 2 years to conquer all those city given if Ukraine did not defend the defensive line they made in between, and then it would be multiple yearly event for the Russian try to take Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. I don't think Russia have that long.
So to sum up, my thoughts are
Russia should leave Bakhmut and redeploy their troop to strength the line.
Ukraine should leave Bakhmut and reserve those force for the summer push.
Russia most likely will not conquer the whole of Donbas.
