Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[khansaheeb]

Has Ukraine made a big mistake by refusing to retreat from Bakhmut?

A growing number of Western military analysts argue that the situation in the eastern city has deteriorated to the point that defending it may now be more costly than it is worth.

www.nbcnews.com

Has Ukraine made a big mistake by refusing to retreat from Bakhmut?​

A growing number of Western military analysts argue that the situation in the eastern city has deteriorated to the point that defending it may now be more costly than it is worth.

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March 16, 2023, 2:07 AM PDT / Updated March 16, 2023, 3:13 AM PDT
By Mithil Aggarwal
Ukraine says its future may depend on the brutal battles raging around Bakhmut, but there are growing splits between officials in Kyiv and some Western military analysts over the best approach to what could be a decisive period in the conflict.
For months, Ukraine’s defense of the eastern city has held up and worn down Russian forces while serving as a potent symbol of the country’s defiance.

Now, as Moscow’s assault intensifies, a number of observers have questioned whether Kyiv's decision to reinforce the area rather than retreat is being driven more by the political desire to avoid a high-profile defeat than by military logic.
A long-speculated Ukrainian withdrawal from the battered city has not materialized, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his military chiefs instead betting that they can buy critical time and benefits for a future counteroffensive by doubling down.

Ukrainian officials have doubled down on defending Bakhmut, defying expectations of a retreat.Aris Messinis / AFP via Getty Images

Russian forces, led for months by mercenary fighters from the Wagner private military company and reinforced by newly mobilized reservists, have intensified their winter campaign to seize the city despite taking massive losses.
It's a key prize for the Kremlin, and capturing it would be Russia's first major victory in nearly a year.
The unceasing pressure has left Ukrainian troops surrounded on three sides and facing an increasingly dire situation.
“Ukrainians should have pulled back weeks ago,” said defense analyst Konrad Muzyka, the director of Rochan Consulting, based in Poland, which specializes in Russia and Belarus.
"It just doesn’t make sense to defend the city right now," said Muzyka, who recently visited the area with colleagues.
He was outlining a view that has become increasingly common among some close observers of the conflict: The defense of Bakhmut was crucial both strategically and symbolically, but the situation has deteriorated to the point that it may now be more costly than it is worth.
Kyiv is now suffering such heavy losses, Muzyka said, that it could be setting back its own hopes of advances in the future.
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Russia's winter offensive has been held up by staunch Ukrainian defense, as well as the muddy, frozen conditions.Sergey Shestak / AFP - Getty Images

There is now just one main road out of Bakhmut under Ukrainian control, with the mining hub that was once home to around 80,000 reduced to artillery craters and muddy trenches.
But Ukrainian officials have doubled down on their strategy, insisting that holding the city is, in fact, critical to their future operations even as losses mount on both sides.
Ukraine’s future hinges on the outcome of the battles raging in Bakhmut and nearby areas, Zelenskyy said this week, as he underscored his commitment to holding out in the city.
“There was a clear position of the entire command: Strengthen this sector and destroy the occupiers to the maximum,” he said in his nightly video address Tuesday.
Officials in Kyiv have insisted the battle both restricts Russian advances by forcing Moscow to throw troops and equipment into Bakhmut and lays the ground for future Ukrainian advances by allowing their own reserves more time to prepare.
Washington publicly backed their position Wednesday.
"Ukraine has fixed the Russian forces at that city, and they're exacting very heavy costs on the Wagner Group and the Russian regular military," the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, said at a news briefing.
NBC News has asked the Ukrainian government for further comment.

Ukraine's military chiefs united in defending Bakhmut, Zelenskyy says​

MARCH 15, 202300:43

Moscow hopes Bakhmut could open a path to capture the rest of its surrounding region. The city is in the northeastern part of Donetsk province, one half of Ukraine’s industrial Donbas heartland, which has become the central target of the Kremlin’s offensive.
With that in mind, some analysts said Ukraine’s approach made sense.
“The idea of the Ukrainians is not just to kill as many Russians as possible, but to fix their troops there so they cannot deploy them anywhere else,” said Rajan Menon, a director at the Washington think tank Defense Priorities, adding that Ukraine was well aware of its position in Bakhmut and was taking a calculated risk.
“The question is if you can hold the line and inflict damage with a cost that the commanders in Ukraine deem as acceptable,” Menon said, “is it necessarily a disastrous thing to do?”

The fight for Bakhmut has become one of Europe's most intense land battles since World War II.Roman Chop / AP

Russian forces have relentlessly bombarded the city with artillery and waves of infantry attacks, increasingly thrusting new recruits and even some of their best forces into the fight alongside the ex-convicts and mercenaries of the Wagner group.
Wagner, led by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has taken scores of casualties for every small fraction of land seized, according to analysts.
It now controls most of eastern Bakhmut, with a river flowing through the city becoming the front line, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
Ukraine’s limited resources might therefore be better spent elsewhere, Muzyka and others posited, with the determination to cling to an increasingly perilous position in Bakhmut also threatening its ability to defend other positions in the area.
Bakhmut has become a fortress of symbolic value akin to Mariupol, with its survival a point of national pride. But the fight there also carries weight in Russia, where Prigozhin has emerged as a face of the war and has engaged in a public feud with Moscow's military leaders.
He has accused the Kremlin's top brass of failing to adequately supply his fighters with ammunition and played up the ferocity of the Ukrainian defensive effort as he seeks a high-profile victory.
Securing Bakhmut is critical for Prigozhin, experts said.

Bakhmut has been relentlessly bombarded, forcing civilians to flee or spend their days sheltered in basements.Roman Chop / AP

“He’s succeeded, in fact, to turn this very challenging battle into something that, in fact, benefits him,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the founder and head of the political analysis firm R.Politik.
But Ukraine’s persistence has resulted in a heavy toll for the Russians.
In a video shared by Sota, an independent Russian media outlet, a group of women who say they are the mothers and wives of men from a division sent to fight in the east plead with Putin to bring home those who have been “thrown like meat to storm the fortified areas.” NBC News has not verified their claims.
However, officials in Kyiv may not be the only ones hoping the brutal battles keep going.
Some of Moscow’s military leaders may be eager for Ukraine to keep up its defensive efforts, Stanovaya suggested, so Prigozhin’s forces are depleted and, with them, his influence is weakened.
“It’s useful that Ukrainians decide to stay, because like this they will just waste all Wagner’s people,” Stanovaya said.
The Wagner offensive on Bakhmut "appears to be nearing culmination," the ISW said in an update Wednesday that supports that idea. "Manpower, artillery, and equipment losses" will most likely constrain the group's "ability to gain substantial territory in battles for urban areas," it added.
Russian advances in the area would likely depend on the military’s own reserves going forward, the ISW said.
Mithil Aggarwal





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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...-troops-fight-us-south-korea-drills-rcna75570
Almost 800,000 have signed up to fight against U.S., North Korea saysNorth Korea claims that about 800,000 of its citizens volunteered to join or reenlist in the nation’s military to fight against the United States, North Korea’s state newspaper reported on Saturday.NBC NEWS

 

[aviator_fan]

"...bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb The Haque..."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637833102079717377

The difference is Putin and his family and chronies had direct and indirect connections with the west. His children live in the west. He and his rich thugs liked to vacation with their yachts.

Nobody expects this ICC warrant to be executed in Moscow. But ability of to ever spend time in the West is finished.

I can bet you nobody in the Hague even has a pet goat they would send to Russia and have no attachment or family living there. That is the difference.

 

[aviator_fan]

The Ukraine-Russia war will stop when America stops funding the war. Period! All those sitting especially in Europe and commenting here should drill this into their brains!! You are nothing without American backing!

Watch this stunning video by Steve Bannon--and a Trump strategist--and a presumed spokesman for the anti-war Republicans. He is saying something like 'We (MAGA) are going to stop funding this war'. And he says much else in this short video.

The MAGA wing of Republican party is relatively small. The MAGA politics got the Republicans an unprecedented 50 year defeat where they don't control both houses with a democrat president in mid-terms.

The current republican majority over democrats is slim: 213-222. Only 9 non-MAGA republicans have to vote to keep status quo for funding.

This is just the numbers.

Nobody can predict what happens in 2024 but given the deep MAGA appraoch to the elections and not securing a material majority with Biden in office, it will be even harder in 2024 elections

 

[BHAN85]

The difference is Putin and his family and chronies had direct and indirect connections with the west. His children live in the west. He and his rich thugs liked to vacation with their yachts.

Nobody expects this ICC warrant to be executed in Moscow. But ability of to ever spend time in the West is finished.

I can bet you nobody in the Hague even has a pet goat they would send to Russia and have no attachment or family living there. That is the difference.

You're right.

Western elite dont go to Siberia in holidays.
But Russia elite go to the West in holidays.

So Russia can't do reciprocal measures.

 

[ziaulislam]

Seems German know what's going on. Europe hasn't given any thing and will buckle first.

Americans surely next election as trump and de santis has already stated their policy and polls clearly suggest that republican will win

The MAGA wing of Republican party is relatively small. The MAGA politics got the Republicans an unprecedented 50 year defeat where they don't control both houses with a democrat president in mid-terms.

The current republican majority over democrats is slim: 213-222. Only 9 non-MAGA republicans have to vote to keep status quo for funding.

This is just the numbers.

Nobody can predict what happens in 2024 but given the deep MAGA appraoch to the elections and not securing a material majority with Biden in office, it will be even harder in 2024 elections

Not really in this economy/environment anyone thinking republicans will loose a presidential election is simply an idiot

It's always the economy

 

[aviator_fan]

Get rid of the Apple Smart phones since it may be susceptible to hacking Because it’s an American company. Either use messenger pigeon or choose Android (which has a 70% marketshare compared to 30% in Russia) also made by American company and likely to be as susceptible as Apple’s iPhone.

Unfortunately Russia’s start to decline economically with producing coal that nobody wants, and oil that everybody will want less of, and ditching mobile phones in favor of telegraph and semaphores has begun

https://apple.news/AL410ofqqQfeH15Nt7nopyQ

BUSINESS NEWS


MARCH 20, 2023 / 06:44 AM


Kremlin tells officials to stop using iPhones - Kommersant newspaper


MOSCOW (Reuters) -The Kremlin told officials involved in preparations for Russia’s 2024 presidential election to stop using Apple iPhones because of concerns that the devices are vulnerable to Western intelligence agencies, the Kommersant newspaper reported.


At a Kremlin-organised seminar for officials involved in domestic politics, Sergei Kiriyenko, first deputy head of the presidential administration, told officials to change their phones by April 1, Kommersant said, citing unidentified sources.


“It’s all over for the iPhone: either throw it away or give it to the children,” Kommersant quoted one of the participants of the meeting as saying. “Everyone will have to do it in March.”


When asked about the issue on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he could not confirm the report.


“Smartphones should not be used for official business,” Peskov told reporters. “Any smartphone has a fairly transparent mechanism, no matter what operating system it has – Android or iOS. Naturally, they are not used for official purposes.”


Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


The Kremlin may provide other devices with different operating systems to replace the iPhones, Kommersant said, adding that the order to cease using iPhones had been directed at those involved in domestic politics - for which Kiriyenko is responsible.


President Vladimir Putin has always said he has no smartphone, though Peskov has said Putin does use the Internet from time to time.


Shortly after Russia sent its troops into Ukraine last year, U.S. and British spies claimed a scoop by uncovering - and going public with - intelligence that Putin was planning to invade. It is unclear how the spies obtained such intelligence.


Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Gareth Jones


Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles

 

[FourMikeEcho]

THe chip war against China’s semi conductor industry predates the invasion so no room for escalation there.



Aviation industry impact may be the next frontier and will impact other elements of economies in both countries on China’s future retaliation as well.



ARGUMENT

An expert's point of view on a current event.

If China Arms Russia, the U.S. Should Kill China’s Aircraft Industry​

Beijing’s aerospace future is uniquely dependent on Western companies. U.S. and EU trade sanctions could bring its indigenous aviation sector to a halt.​

By Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory.

A COMAC C919 narrow-body airliner on display during the 2021 China Aviation Industry Conference And Nanchang Air Show on October 30, 2021 in Nanchang, China.

A COMAC C919 narrow-body airliner on display during the 2021 China Aviation Industry Conference And Nanchang Air Show on October 30, 2021 in Nanchang, China. LI TONG/VCG VIA GETTY IMAGES





MARCH 20, 2023, 2:05 PM

As Chinese President Xi Jinping meets in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, the war in Ukraine will be high on the agenda. While the Chinese leader might pressure Russia to pursue a peace deal, there are also worries in Western capitals that the authoritarian allies could agree to work together more closely.

A Chinese decision to provide Russia with weapons would change the world. Only China has the stockpiles and industrial capacity to replace Russia’s ruinous equipment losses in its war against Ukraine. Worse, it would help cement a Russia–China alliance, one pitted against Western interests. U.S. President Joe Biden and other Western leaders have warned China’s leadership that providing lethal technologies to Russia, on top of the non-lethal aid already provided, would have serious consequences.

Indeed, the West does have some leverage. One option would be to bring China’s commercial aircraft industry to a halt, thereby striking a blow against Beijing’s economic, technological, and transport aspirations. It would be a major blow to Xi’s prestige, too, since he has made technological self-sufficiency a key priority for the country.

The aviation industry is not just a matter of pride; it is foundational to China’s infrastructure and an essential mode of transport for many middle-class Chinese. According to the World Bank, passenger air traffic in China grew more than tenfold between 2000 and the 2019 peak, from 62 million passengers to 660 million passengers.

The exponential growth in passenger numbers has made China a major customer for Western-made jets: based on manufacturer-reported numbers, in 2000, China took 2 percent of world jetliner production. In 2018, the peak year for imports, it took 23 percent of world jetliner production.





The United States and its allies have already decided to decouple from China when it comes to semiconductors and telecommunications systems. Jetliner manufacturing would be a logical next step. After all, China’s vaunted commercial transports—the MA700 regional turboprop transport, ARJ21 regional jet, C919 narrow-body passenger plane, and proposed CR929 wide-body are heavily dependent upon imported Western technologies and systems.

While China wants to develop home-grown substitutes for these imported components, ultimately creating purely Chinese jets, this will be a very long road. Besides, modern jet producers rely on purchases of best-in-class technologies from a globalized industry; autarky is a very bad way to run a jetliner industry. Even the U.S. jetliner industry has long been wedded to industrial partners in Canada, France, Japan, the U.K., and many other countries.

Engines are the weakest link in China’s civil aviation plans.

Engines are the weakest link in China’s civil aviation plans. Airframes and aircraft systems and technologies may be difficult to develop, but jet engines are at a completely different level in terms of barriers to entry. In fact, only three companies, located in two countries (General Electric (GE) and Raytheon/Pratt & Whitney in the United States and Rolls-Royce in the U.K.) build commercial jet engines. France’s Safran plays a role as a partner to GE in the CFM joint venture, but otherwise there are no other sourcing options.

Russia could not become a jet engine supplier option for China. The Soviet Union had a second-rate commercial engine industry for mostly domestic applications, but Russia’s efforts to revive it have been uncertain and very slow. Today, Russia remains completely dependent on Western aircraft and engines; it has only been able to keep its existing aircraft flying by illegally evading sanctions.

Only tiny numbers of obsolete Russian models have been manufactured over the last few decades. There are plans for new engines, but international sanctions, massive corruption, and the brain drain of the last year have likely doomed whatever chances Russia’s commercial aviation engine industry once had. Besides, the priority is now military systems.

As a consequence of the limited number of jet engine suppliers, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China’s (COMAC) ARJ21 regional jet and C919 are both powered by GE or GE/Safran engines, imported from the United States. For the ARJ21, there is no backup plan to GE’s CF34 engine.

For the C919, China is developing its CJ-1000A engine as an alternative to the GE/Safran Leap-1C, but it won’t enter service until the end of the decade. And the CJ-1000A is also heavilydependent upon key imported Western technologies. Like China’s jetliners, China’s first attempt at a commercial engine could easily be shut down with technology embargoes.



Killing the current CJ-1000 project would bring China back to the jet engine drawing board. Predictably, the Chinese government has been trying to develop its own engine industry independent of imported components, a process involving intellectual property theft and other desperate measures.

But again, the track record of commercial jet engine development outside the United States and U.K. is not encouraging. And as with aircraft, the big three engine suppliers would never think of building engines without relying on suppliers outside their home countries.

With or without Western sanctions, a best-case scenario for China’s aerospace aspirations is a second-rate, home-grown engine available in the mid 2030s. These would power Chinese jetliners which, relative to Western models, would offer lower reliability, higher fuel burn and operating costs, and uncertain product support.

 

[Ahmadbhutta01]

Putin has announced the waiver of $20 billion debts by these nations.. emphasizing that trade with them has reached $18 billion just this year..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637908387668058112

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637883884359524355

New customers for oil export

 

[vizier]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638042781343162368

Last Ukranian attack on Crimea looks like a Geran-derivative style attack. The noise is like a piston engine. They have several weapons now to attack Crimea. Glsdb-Grom(Atacms?)-kamikaze drones. If they get to the airbases and destroy sufficient number of ground support aircraft and helicopters or disable the runways for a long time they can start a foothold on left bank of Kherson carry long-mid range sams there and continue expanding from there.

Russia should position bulk of Su 25 and Ka 52 deeper inside Russia and use Crimea as a jump refuel resupply point to give air support when required.

 

[That Guy]

Seems German know what's going on. Europe hasn't given any thing and will buckle first.

Americans surely next election as trump and de santis has already stated their policy and polls clearly suggest that republican will win


Not really in this economy/environment anyone thinking republicans will loose a presidential election is simply an idiot

It's always the economy

Polls do not show Republicans will win. Don't know where you got that from.

Also, the EU just pledged 2 billion Euros worth of ammo for Ukrainian artillery, so again, don't know where you're getting your info from.

On a side note, it may seem like I'm picking on you, but I promise I'm not. It's just that you're someone who I have respect for on this forum, so it's very surprising you have these views on the Russia-Ukraine war, which make me wanna reply each time I read your comment.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

I guess if the Ukrainian wanted to learn about Trench Warfare they should learn from Ozzie. Man how effed up is this. Even the idea of conducting Trench Warfare in this day and age is ridiculous.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634314757644640257

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

Girkin somewhat forgetting that this time Russia is not the defender.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637903563136401412

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

The Ukraine-Russia war will stop when America stops funding the war. Period! All those sitting especially in Europe and commenting here should drill this into their brains!! You are nothing without American backing!

Watch this stunning video by Steve Bannon--and a Trump strategist--and a presumed spokesman for the anti-war Republicans. He is saying something like 'We (MAGA) are going to stop funding this war'. And he says much else in this short video.

No, the war will stop when Russia decides that it cannot sustain the effects of the war and withdraws.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

90% of Europeans have Mongol genes , lol. So much for the Aryan race, more like Mongolian race.

And this is still irrelevant since the culture of Europe was not changed.

 

[Deino]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637873561976152064

Well ... with the fact alone - aka the US sent to fight this war - he is correct, but why blaming the current president, a Democrat, when the one who is responsible for all this mess is a Republican?