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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2


Is Putin a product of the Russian mentality and culture?

Definitely. The former President of Finland, Juho Kusti Paasikivi (as President 1946–1956) described the modus operandi of the Russian society as such:

"The immutable Russian policy is to get whatever they can with the least possible effort, and then ask for more. They never sacrifice their immediate benefits for future goals. They never take into account what has been said, but what has been done. They try to exact a high price for anything that they understand they have to do in any case. They are immune to ethical, humanitarian and abstract juridical arguments, being affected only by practical and realistic points of view."

We have a saying in Finland: “Scrath a Russian, reveal a Mongol”. The Russianness - the Russian core value set (or rather lack of it) and the idea of Russian socity is product of the Mongol Yoke - the 250 years of slavery under the Golden Horde 1237 to 1480.

No matter what the Russians themselves say about it, the Mongol Yoke was a disastrous period to the Russian society, Russian culture, Russian state apparatus and Russian mentality. This era saw Russia departing its Scandinavian and Norse roots and becoming a Central Asian society.

Do not get it wrong. The Mongols were brutal, ruthless and cruel rulers without absolutely any interest of the welfare of their subjects. They never saw their domain as a state - a thing to be protected, developed and grown rich - but rather a grounds for exctraction of riches to the ruling class. A poem of the era describes the brutal Mongol taxation:

Hundred roubles he took from a prince
fifty from a boyar
one from a peasant
Who couldn’t pay, he took his son
who hadn’t a son, he took his wife
who had no wife, he took himself


One rouble equalled 1/8th of a Russian pound of silver. Inability to pay the taxes meant being taken as a slave by the Mongols. The Mongols retaliated any dissence with wanton brutally. As result, there never were any rebellions against the Mongol rule until 1378.

The only way to survive such rule was to ditch any moral compass and ethical backbone and assume moral relativity - the concept that there is no right and no wrong, but everything depends on one’s vantage point - and a similar cruelty towards one’s subordinates and similar servility towards one’s superiors as the Mongol rulers and servants demonstrated.

The Khanate never had any vestiges of rule of law, but the word of the Khan was the law. This led to arbitrariness by the ruler and the idea that violence makes right. Laws in Russia exist only to prop the status of the powerholder and as a tool to punish any subordinates who think they have any rights.
There is only a rooster’s step from moral relativism to logical relativism: that there is no objective truth, but everything depends on who presents it. There are two words for “truth” in Russian, and three words for “lie”: “istina” means a scientific truth while “pravda” means truth as the one who insists it sees it; “lozh” means a blatant lie, “vranyo” means bullsh1tting (as a deception) and “nyepravda” as untruth. There is a constant state of greyshades between lie and truth in the Russian mind.

While the rest of the Europe assumed Feudalism and Capitalism and rule of law and restriction of the power of the ruler, Russia developed into Authoritarian Patrimonialism. This is a form of statehood which has never existed in Europe - perhaps the Ottoman Turkey is the closest thing. In Authoritarian Patrimonialism, the ruler is the supreme ruler of the land, not to be questioned by any means, he rules with force and no laws bind him, and all power springs from him. All economy is state-owned or state-controlled and there is no law-guaranteed right of ownership, but a limitless right of possession by the close circle of the rulers.
In Authoritarian Patrimonialism, the subjects are little better than worker ants. Serfdom ended in Russia de facto only in 1974, when kolkhoz peasants got a freedom to move to towns if they wished.

Russians fail game theory. They see everything as zero-sum games and they cannot understand the concept of mutual benefit. This is why Russia can never tolerate independent Baltic states - their security is off from the Russian security and their wealth is off the Russian wealth.

Russians prefer having enemies over having friends. This is a consequence of failing the game theory. Having enemies means you are feared and thus repected; having friends means you are weak and vulnerable.

Vladimir Putin is a perfect product of this kind of society. And same inverted: Russia is astonishingly immune to any attempts to reform the society, and it always returns back into Authoritarian Patrimonialism. While Nazism was a short spell of lunacy in Germany, Communism fit to the Russian idea like a nose on a human face. Communism was a perfect application of the Authoritarian Patrimonialism - the revolution changed absolutely nothing.

Yes, and whoever will replace Putin, will replace nothing. His successor will be a similar product of the similar mentality and similar culture.

Very good read. Thanks for sharing.
 
Dude, did you just figure that out??

It's is of course a proxy war from the West, or you think they really care whether or not Ukraine align to the West? A country with 200 billion GDP pre-war? I said that time and again, the sitaution in Ukraine is created so Sweden and Finland would join NATO. And Russia is stupid enough to help NATO along. This is of course a proxy war.

The fact remained; Russia is losing this proxy war.
 
That's mostly the reason why Russia is so keen on taking Bakhmut.

Without it. It would have been a harsh winter for Russian troop laying siege around the area in the East, when temperature plummet to -10 or even -20, quite a few Russian would just frozen to death in their position. They need that city to get out of the element, or they would have to most likely withdraw to pre-invasion line....
Think another month or so?

Dude, did you just figure that out??

It's is of course a proxy war from the West, or you think they really care whether or not Ukraine align to the West? A country with 200 billion GDP pre-war? I said that time and again, the sitaution in Ukraine is created so Sweden and Finland would join NATO. And Russia is stupid enough to help NATO along. This is of course a proxy war.

The fact remained; Russia is losing this proxy war.
Iran using Russia in this proxy war.
 
Seems like Ukraine needs more help from NATO who are ready to intervene. Status Quo is not in NATO's interest.


 
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The love / Hate triangle which will lead to war:-

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Angela Merkel: “Also, if we had responded more quickly to Russia aggression.”

At least, she admitted the strategic mistake.

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Think another month or so?


Iran using Russia in this proxy war.
Iran is the joker. Russia urgently needs Iran military. Iran drones, tactical missiles, ballistic missiles. Putin wants to take Bachmut at all costs. He wants to take the city with no strategic value just to make an example. since months the Wagners hooligans running towards Ukraine artillery, they die like flies.

 


If Putin loses the war with Ukraine, is it possible that Russia will break into several different nations?
It is not only possible, but also likely.
The reason is that deep down in economy Russia is a third world country. The Russian economy is based on extraction of existing resources - oil, natural gas, ores, energy - and it has little to speak about manufacturing industry beyond weapons and dockyards.
Russia is an imperium - consisting of the master people (ethnic Russians) and subjugated minorities. It has been that way ever since the Mongol era. Its massive size is incredibly difficult and expensive to upkeep, and many of the subjugated minority peoples are Islamic and more than eager to rebel at the first opportunity. Russia lives on a shoestring budget.
Russia’s system of government is Authoritarian Patrimonialism. This system is almost unknown in Europe, but common in Asia. Russia has never been feudal, Capitalist nor a civil society. In Patrimonialism, the whole state is the property of the ruler (patrimonium) and all power personifies on him and emanates from him. The ruler is above the laws and his word is the law. There is no distinction between the public and private domains. These regimes are autocratic and/or oligarchic, and typically ruled by a clique of cronies. The very idea of Patrimonialism is to exclude the lower, middle and upper classes from any kind of power or influence. The leaders of these countries typically enjoy absolute personal power. Usually, the armies of these countries are loyal to the leader, not the nation. This is an important feature. Russian armies have always been hordes of peasants, conscripts or bandits kept in discipline with расстрел and driven ahead by the ruler’s nagaika. As a counterpoise to their miserable state of existence they have been given the licence to murder, rape and loot at will. No matter how much the Russians tout about the Great Patriotic War 1941–45, it was a Great Stalinist War.
You really cannot understand Russia without understanding Patrimonialism. It is almost needless to say that a Patrimonialism leads into a thoroughly corrupt croniocracy - the corruption is not a fault in it, but its upkeeping power. The only way to exclude the ambitious members of the aristocracy, plutocracy and intelligentsiya from usurping the power are state terror and purchasing the loyalty of the members of the inner circle by giving them a licence to extract and loot the national property and enrich themselves as long as they do not steal too much. The oligarchs are not a bug in the Russian system, they are its essential feature.
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This is how the game goes in Russia. Everything emanates from the strongman - Khan, Czar, Emperor Premier, President, it really does not matter how he is called. His power is not based on legitimacy, but strongmanship. His inner circle does NOT consist of independent aristocrats, plutocrats or intellectuals risen to their power by merit, inheritance or popularity, but they are his personal buddies and hence dependent of him. The strongman keeps his buddies content by corruption and rent-seeking - it is an essential part of this game. Should some of his buddies go too ambitious, there will immediately be repercusions and anti-corruption campaign. The result is that no rule of law and no civil society can prevail and all public goods (rights, liberties, rule of law, infrastructure etc) are underproided. The result is Russia is far poorer than what its educational level and average IQ would let understand.
Russian people are basically all either peasants or stooges. A “peasant” is someone who is downtrodden, oppressed and exploited and knows his situation. A “stooge” is someone with an ambition to one day to become a downtrodder, oppressor or exploiter himself. Serfdom was finally abolished in Russia de facto only in 1974, when kolkhoz peasants got the freedom to move away from the kolkhoz to the towns if they desired. The Russians have no judicial safety nor civil freedoms as we understand them, including the safety of ownership. The result is that there are very few private businesses in Russia, and they almost all are insignificant small businesses. Anything you have can be robbed or confiscated from you by the rulers and his stooges or by the mafia at will.
The result is that the ordinary Russians are poor as church mice and their country is one of low technology. This was pointed out by Finns already during the 19th century. And this is well demonstrated by the sorry state of Russian industry and their consumer products, especially automobiles. And this is demonstrated by the Russian soldiers looting anything with any kind of technology - clocks, watches, household appliances, whiteware - even the toilet seats. They simply do not exist in Russia outside the large cities. The Russian countryside still lives in the same conditions as they did in the 19th century.
There has been no middle class in Russia outside the middleman minorities, such as the Germans, Jews, Armenians, Latvians or Finns. All middle class entrepreneurship in Russia has always been foreign owned. It is no secret why there are so many great goldsmithing studios in Helsinki - they have been originally existed in St. Petersburg before 1918. The result is simple. Middleman minorities are far safer for the ruler to keep in discipline than to let your own ethnicity to rise from squalor and gain any economic or intellectual power. This is why almost all scientists, artists and businessmen in Russia have always been Jews, Germans or Latvians.
The idea of Russia is to expand territorially and all the way to the seas. The very idea of Russia is blatant Imperialism, subjugation of its neighbouring nations and rule with violence and terror. The Russians do not understand the concept of “peace”; they only have “high intensity war” and “low intensity war”. For Russia, peace is nothing but an intermediary period on preparing for a new high intensity war and committing special operations and dirty tricks (assassinations, indoctrination, propaganda, influencing) on its neighbours in order to weaken them for a high intensity military operation. The result is that Russia is hated by all its neighbours except Finland and Bulgaria, which relate to it with neutrality.
The Authoritarian Patrimonialism in Russia is astonishingly immune to all attempts to reform or to renew it. No matter if it is called Czarism, Communism or Putinism, the system itself is always the same Authoritarian Patrimonialism. Russia simply cannot be reformed - each time there happens a revolution and the old system collapses, the state apparatus simply reassembles itself and returns back into its original form under a new name. It has attained its memetic climax in the cultural evolution and won’t evolve any further - just think of the jellyfish, which attained their perfection already in the Ediacaran era 600 million years ago and haven’t evolved ever since.

Okay. When you connect the dots and add in the fact that the Russian special military operation in Ukraine has gone terribly pear-shaped, the result should be clear to anyone.
Russia is well on its way to bankruptcy. It simply has no funds to upkeep itself. It can continue the war in Ukraine for next summer, but not much beyond. It is as if it was playing Civilization and the enemies would not budge - the only way to raise new troops is by demolishing the stuff you have.
But sooner or later a collapse will ensue. It can be either a bankruptcy, a military catastrophe or an inside coup. The result will be pretty much the whole Empire imploding into itself.
What now ensues is svoboda. The word “svoboda” is often translated as “freedom”, but it is closer to “anarchy”. It is a state of affairs where there are no institutions or powers able to sanction from any transgressions or to impose any punitive measures. This svoboda is often welcomed as liberty from an oppressive regime, but like any anarchy, it is an extremely undesirable thing. It is usually followed by smuta, chaos, such as in the 1990s after the collapse of the USSR.
After the smuta, normally a strongman will ensue, set up a hard-handed rule, and little by little the state reverts back into what it was - Authoritarian Patrimonialism.
But revolutions are expensive business. Money, nervus rerum, speaks again. Russia has managed to fritter itself away - what the oligarchs have not stolen, has been invested into weapons or other badly returning assets - and the whole world refuses to purchase Russian oil and energy. When the inevitable collapse one day will happen, there will be no money left to stitch the giant state back together.
The result will inevitably be disintegration. The first to rebel will be the Islamic nations in South, but also the Far East has cahoots with China and Mongolia. The Russian nation itself is ethnically very uniform and there are very little differences in Russian dialects, but it is perfectly possible that strongmen, mafia bosses and warlords will arise from the ranks of the Oligarchs and found their own petty statelets. Some territories may even attempt to join the neighbouring countries.
So the answer is “yes”.
 

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