Roshan Pakistan poll predicts PTI will be the largest party in elections

[Norwegian]

Maybe establisment is just being neutral for the first time ever and people are tired of nawaz sharif.THAT IS a possibility

It's possible but I am not changing my stance until after election results

 

[MBT 3000]

Independents are not allowed to join Pmln this time. Reason being Khalai Makhlooq orders


Pmln is booted out from center and senate already. Only problem is Punjab, which will be taken care of on election day

hope that

 

[Ali Tariq]

Bhai Ji is part of MMA with mulla diesal, i did forget to mention PkMAP and other Baloch parties. But yes i agree about IK keeping a hold on his tongue.

Oh sorry, I forget that JI is a part of MMA now.

 

[ziaulislam]

The last thing we need is a coalition government or a minority government. PTI needs to win a majority to be able to perform.

Coalition is okay as long as pti hits 100 a bigger issue will be different parties in punjab and center

 

[Sharpshooter12]

Maybe independent candidates will join PTI, because PTI winning 137 seats to form an independent government isn't going to happen. What is your guess about next government?

That will depend upon on whether those independents join the PTI party, like what they did in 2013 when they joined with PMLN or they form a Jeep kind of group and then join the government as a coalition partner.

PTI is sure to form a government in KPK, and with pending KPK-FATA merger many of the 12 FATA members will prefer to join PTI and to get some influence in the provincial assembly as well.

So if PTI gets to a 100 seats somehow, then say get 10 out of 12 Fata members, taking their tally to 110. Then they will be just 27 short and in this case many independents will find it beneficial to join the PTI party, say they get 15 independents. Taking their total to 125, in this case BAP, PSP and GDA(PML-F) can come together and join PTI's coalition. Now all three of these parties are pro-establishment, so military will have a lot of influence in the government. And with both PMLN and PPP sitting in opposition, life won't be easy for the PTI in the center.

Now if PTI gets less than what is expected of them, any thing below 90 will mean they will never form the government even if they are the single largest party. The only option will be to join PPP which will be a political suicide.

Let's say PTI gets 90, PMLN 70 and PPP 40. With MMA getting around 10. PKMAP might get a couple of seats. In this scenario, PMLN-PPP-MMA-PKMAP can form a coalition government with the help of 15 independents. Such a government will be very weak and won't last for long. We might end up with another election being called a couple of years down the road. In such a government the biggest loser will be PMLN, as any alliance with PPP will result in serious vote bank loss. So in the next election PTI can actually perform much better in Punjab.

PTI will already have around 30 seats in its bag when it enters Punjab (20-25 KPK, 2-3 ICT, 2-3 Sindh(Karachi) ) but it will require 70 out of 141 Punjab seats to get into position of forming a government.

It is tough to say if it can get there. They surely dominate northern and southern Punjab, but major chunk of seats is in the central Punjab.

North has around 15 seats (they can get around 8 seats(3 Attock, 3 Rawalpindi, 1 Chakwal, 1 Jehlum) + 1 for PMLQ's Pervaiz elahi in Chakwal), South has 46 seats and with the inclusion of some heavy weights they can get around 25-30 there. So in best case scenario they will have around 38 seats from north and south, but they will still need 32 seats out of 80 central Punjab seats which I feel is difficult to achieve.

They have made inroads but would that be enough. Take Lahore for example, out of 14 available seats PTI got just 1 in 2013, this time they are expected to get 4 there. That will mean them requiring 28 more seats out of the remaining 66.

 

[Ali Tariq]

A very well calculated analysis I have read so far. It means winning this election isn't a piece of cake for PTI as some voters are thinking and final result is still unpredictable.

 

[Norwegian]

A very well calculated analysis I have read so far. It means winning this election isn't a piece of cake for PTI as some voters are thinking and final result is still unpredictable.

You got it. We still have Khota slaves in Northern Punjab

 

[ziaulislam]

That will depend upon on whether those independents join the PTI party, like what they did in 2013 when they joined with PMLN or they form a Jeep kind of group and then join the government as a coalition partner.

PTI is sure to form a government in KPK, and with pending KPK-FATA merger many of the 12 FATA members will prefer to join PTI and to get some influence in the provincial assembly as well.

So if PTI gets to a 100 seats somehow, then say get 10 out of 12 Fata members, taking their tally to 110. Then they will be just 27 short and in this case many independents will find it beneficial to join the PTI party, say they get 15 independents. Taking their total to 125, in this case BAP, PSP and GDA(PML-F) can come together and join PTI's coalition. Now all three of these parties are pro-establishment, so military will have a lot of influence in the government. And with both PMLN and PPP sitting in opposition, life won't be easy for the PTI in the center.

Now if PTI gets less than what is expected of them, any thing below 90 will mean they will never form the government even if they are the single largest party. The only option will be to join PPP which will be a political suicide.

Let's say PTI gets 90, PMLN 70 and PPP 40. With MMA getting around 10. PKMAP might get a couple of seats. In this scenario, PMLN-PPP-MMA-PKMAP can form a coalition government with the help of 15 independents. Such a government will be very weak and won't last for long. We might end up with another election being called a couple of years down the road. In such a government the biggest loser will be PMLN, as any alliance with PPP will result in serious vote bank loss. So in the next election PTI can actually perform much better in Punjab.

PTI will already have around 30 seats in its bag when it enters Punjab (20-25 KPK, 2-3 ICT, 2-3 Sindh(Karachi) ) but it will require 70 out of 141 Punjab seats to get into position of forming a government.

It is tough to say if it can get there. They surely dominate northern and southern Punjab, but major chunk of seats is in the central Punjab.

North has around 15 seats (they can get around 8 seats(3 Attock, 3 Rawalpindi, 1 Chakwal, 1 Jehlum) + 1 for PMLQ's Pervaiz elahi in Chakwal), South has 46 seats and with the inclusion of some heavy weights they can get around 25-30 there. So in best case scenario they will have around 38 seats from north and south, but they will still need 32 seats out of 80 central Punjab seats which I feel is difficult to achieve.

They have made inroads but would that be enough. Take Lahore for example, out of 14 available seats PTI got just 1 in 2013, this time they are expected to get 4 there. That will mean them requiring 28 more seats out of the remaining 66.

it wount be suicide..look it will not affect the vote bank, vote bank of PMLN like PPPP is solid and will last till the supporters are alive..

so its either PTI+small parties
or PML N/PPPP alliance like in 2008
though establishment might make it difficult and you might see a forward block in PMLN

PTI will grab 35+35 seats in KPK/Souther punjab..the key is central punjab, how many does PTI grab in 102 seast,

45 of these are urban Punjab educated class (educated class is defined who can read and write) which seems to the stronghold of PMLN, most educated people will vote for PML N there, the rural areas is electable based and to be honest more mature than educated urban areas so PTI will grab some seats there

so PTI will need atleast 30-40 seats in this 102 seats of central punjab to get to 110..rest it can get "jeep" and smaller parties
remember pml n won 98 of 102 seats...nawaz is the "king of the north" and punjabis are not "brygharat"

 

[Zibago]

most educated people will vote for PML N t

Actually that is a false claim

But we keep forgetting only 10% of Pakistanis have done matriculation
Now this is where it gets funny

remember pml n won 98 of 102 seats...nawaz is the "king of the north" and punjabis are not "brygharat"

Central Punjab is still in PMLN,s hand

The rest of Punjab?Not so much

or PML N/PPPP alliance like in 2008

If that happens we will have a hard term followed by destruction of both parties i am rooting for this coalition

 

[Sharpshooter12]

it wount be suicide..look it will not affect the vote bank, vote bank of PMLN like PPPP is solid and will last till the supporters are alive..

so its either PTI+small parties
or PML N/PPPP alliance like in 2008
though establishment might make it difficult and you might see a forward block in PMLN

PTI will grab 35+35 seats in KPK/Souther punjab..the key is central punjab, how many does PTI grab in 102 seast,

45 of these are urban Punjab educated class (educated class is defined who can read and write) which seems to the stronghold of PMLN, most educated people will vote for PML N there, the rural areas is electable based and to be honest more mature than educated urban areas so PTI will grab some seats there

so PTI will need atleast 30-40 seats in this 102 seats of central punjab to get to 110..rest it can get "jeep" and smaller parties
remember pml n won 98 of 102 seats...nawaz is the "king of the north" and punjabis are not "brygharat"

I said it will be a suicide for the PTI to form coalition with PPP, I was not talking about PMLN-PPP coalition. But one has to say that forming a coalition with MR. 10%, as the league calls him, will have an impact on PMLN vote bank. Bibi's assassination, struggle against military rule provided a justification in 2008, there is no such justification this time. Although one can understand from the speeches of both Bilawal talking about a national government and Shahbaz talking about a new Imrani muahida, they are preparing ground for such an eventuality.

And I doubt PTI can get 35 out of 39 available seats in KPK and 35 out of Southern Punjab. If that will be the case then they will surely form the next government and comfortably as well. As I said FATA members will prefer PTI because of the KP-FATA merger and the military influence in that region, so they will get a good chunk of 12 FATA members, let's say 8. Then they are sure to win on 2 out of 3 ICT seats, that will take their total tally to 80 already and plus a couple from Karachi.

And no Nawaz is not the king in the north but rather that of center. North or pothohar has around 15 seats, and all surveys show PTI getting at-least 8 seats there. 3 out of 3 in Attock, 3 out of 6 in Rawalpindi including that of Sheikh rasheed, 1 out 2 in Chakwal and 1 out of 2 in Jehlum.

This all combines to take their total to 90, just 10 short of the golden number. And Nawaz's fortress Punjab is breached, yes they might get the majority of seats there but it won't be a rout for the PTI there this time. As I said, Lahore the heart of PMLN with 14 seats will see a very close fight this time around and PTI is expected to win around 4/14 seats there. Competition in Gujranwala and Faisalabad divisions will be even tougher.

So if as you mentioned, PTI does manage to get 35 + 35 from KPK + S. Punjab then they can easily go to 110, i.e with 20/80-85 seats in central Punjab.

But that is not going to happen, at best they can expect 20-25 seats from KPK and if they really play their cards well 25-30 from Southern Punjab. So in the end getting around 90-95 seats.

 

[ziaulislam]

I said it will be a suicide for the PTI to form coalition with PPP, I was not talking about PMLN-PPP coalition. But one has to say that forming a coalition with MR. 10%, as the league calls him, will have an impact on PMLN vote bank. Bibi's assassination, struggle against military rule provided a justification in 2008, there is no such justification this time. Although one can understand from the speeches of both Bilawal talking about a national government and Shahbaz talking about a new Imrani muahida, they are preparing ground for such an eventuality.

And I doubt PTI can get 35 out of 39 available seats in KPK and 35 out of Southern Punjab. If that will be the case then they will surely form the next government and comfortably as well. As I said FATA members will prefer PTI because of the KP-FATA merger and the military influence in that region, so they will get a good chunk of 12 FATA members, let's say 8. Then they are sure to win on 2 out of 3 ICT seats, that will take their total tally to 80 already and plus a couple from Karachi.

And no Nawaz is not the king in the north but rather that of center. North or pothohar has around 15 seats, and all surveys show PTI getting at-least 8 seats there. 3 out of 3 in Attock, 3 out of 6 in Rawalpindi including that of Sheikh rasheed, 1 out 2 in Chakwal and 1 out of 2 in Jehlum.

This all combines to take their total to 90, just 10 short of the golden number. And Nawaz's fortress Punjab is breached, yes they might get the majority of seats there but it won't be a rout for the PTI there this time. As I said, Lahore the heart of PMLN with 14 seats will see a very close fight this time around and PTI is expected to win around 4/14 seats there. Competition in Gujranwala and Faisalabad divisions will be even tougher.

So if as you mentioned, PTI does manage to get 35 + 35 from KPK + S. Punjab then they can easily go to 110, i.e with 20/80-85 seats in central Punjab.

But that is not going to happen, at best they can expect 20-25 seats from KPK and if they really play their cards well 25-30 from Southern Punjab. So in the end getting around 90-95 seats.

i will be surprised if they dont get 30-35 seats in KPK(not counting FATA), remeber even the gallop polls and on ground suggest that PTI is going to clean sweep KPK..its going to be overwhelming defeat for remaining parts of JUI..but lets assume they will not and lets add FATA memebers to this..that would be easy to grab 35 in 53 seats

now southern punjab has 45ish seats, just counting the electives it easily cross 25+, so i am not sure why you think it PTI wouldnt be able to grab 35 in 45ish seats but let give it there 30 seats

so KPK (30/39)
south punjab(30/40-45ish) is easy 70 seats..
others are FATA, karachi, islamabad,baluchistan, this is easy 8-10 seats

so PTI will hit 80 here but question is the fortress of the north ? which gave PML N 98/102 seats...an impressive performance ..

i am confident about PTI forming central govt, issue is punjab provincial govt

 

[Sharpshooter12]

so KPK (30/39)
south punjab(30/40-45ish) is easy 70 seats..
others are FATA, karachi, islamabad,baluchistan, this is easy 8-10 seats

You are counting Fata twice. The thing in S. Punjab is that whether intentionally or by mistake, PTI has fielded some weak candidates against independents like Jamshed Dasti etc. So I will not be surprised if Independents end up getting around 10 of those 45 seats, then PPP is still looking strong in Rahim yar khan. So as I said 25 is a safe number to bet on for PTI there.

The reason I don't think 35 out of 39 in KPK is possible is because of following factors .

PMLN is still strong albeit not like 2013 in Hazara district. So at best PTI can expect 2 out of 4 seats there.

Then many parties in KPK have regional dominance, for example Dir(Both upper and lower) are JI's strongholds, the only place where they get NA seats and now they are contesting under the banner of MMA so will have support from JUI as well. And PTI has not really fielded strong candidates there, although one has to appreciate their gesture of giving ticket to a woman Hamida Shahid in a constituency where till 2013 jirgas disallowed women from voting in elections.

DI Khan has always been JUI's stronghold, yes PTI now has a strong presence there. But the rift within PTI in the district can cost them a couple of seats there.

But they are gaining in Shangla and Kohistan, previously PMLN's seats. So their performance will be much better than that of 2013 when they got 19 seats there, and getting 25 seats out of the 39 available will be considered a sweep in KPK.

So 25 KPK + 25-30 S. Punjab + 2 ICT + 8-10 FATA + 1-2 Sindh + 0 Baluchistan + 8 North Punjab = 70-77

Now how much can they get out of 82 central Punjab seats will decide whether they can form the government or not and its hard to tell there. PMLN has made some terrible mistakes while distributing tickets there as well and perhaps PTI can take advantage of that but in most constituencies its too close to call.

 

[Jungibaaz]

A hung parliament has been expected for a while now. From there on, which ever party is largest, it's a choice, coalition with PPP or similar, or a minority government and another election soon after this one.