Resolve the Kahmir issue now

[53fd]

I am willing to wager both my testicles that if Pak accepts LoC as IB, India will grab that with both hands any day of the week and thrice on Sunday, whether or not the alphabet soup of militant groups, operating from inside Pak, is 'tackled'.

If the LOC gets converted into the IB, or if AJK unites with J&K & forms an independent Kashmiri nation; in both scenarios, the militancy in the region will stop. The first method might not be as smooth as the second one, but over time, the support for Kashmir nationalism will diminish, when more & more people will accept their fate, & the Islamists will be marginalized. The second scenario will be a win-win for everyone in the short-run, including the Kashmiri people. But it might not be stable for the region in the long run, threatened not from Islamists, but from Pakistan & India using Kashmir as proxy land.

 

[S.M.R]

leave Kashmir, if this logic works out all over the world, how many countries will be there, 5000? 6000?

Well it can be vice versa, isn't?

 

[KS]

The main issue of the Kashmir dispute stems from AJK & J&K, not from GB or Ladakh. GB wants to be part of Pakistan, Ladakh wants to be part of India. Both GB & Ladakh do not consider them part of the Kashmir independence movement like J&K & AJK want. So the focus point of this discussion is AJK & J&K. Either Pakistan & India both lose AJK & J&K (& they form an independent Kashmir state), or both India & Pakistan get to "keep" J&K & AJK respectively, & make them autonomous regions, just like AJK is an autonomous region. In that case, convert the LOC to the IB, & then both the J&K & AJK residents should have easy visa access to one another.

You are spot on in saying that Ladakh wants to be a part of India though I am not entirely convinced of Northern Areas wanting to be a part of Pakistan because many movements like Balwaristan movement have been crushed ruthlessly. Anyway that's for another discussion and I do not think practically Pak will let go of Northern Areas for its Strategic value.

The point is you have said the problem lies with AJK and J&K. Not really.
The problem lies in the six districts of Kashmir Valley (Kupwara, Baramulla,Sri Nagar,Pulwama,Budgam and Anantnag, with Sri Nagar being the most troublesome) and not by a long shot in Jammu areas (Jammu,Udhampur,Kathua,Rajouri,Poonch,Doda etc). In those areas the people feel as much Indian as any one else in the rest of India.

Actually the residents in Jammu region want to end the discriminatory Article 370 and want to integrate with the Indian state completely.

So an ideal solution accpeted by all three - India, Pakistan and Kashmiris will be like ;

1) Make Ladakh an Union Territory under the President of India.
2) Make Jammu a separate state and merge it completely with the Indian Union
3) Give broad autonomy to the six districts of the Valley on the condition that the displaced Pandits are returned to their homes as in pre-1989 condition and they be given adequate protection and powers along with free movement across borders with adequate security measures in place.
4) Finish that by converting the LoC into IB with the BSF taking charge on our side and the Rangers on the Pak side as is now on other frontiers and both the Armies going to their respective HQs.

But it might not be stable for the region in the long run, threatened not from Islamists, but from Pakistan & India using Kashmir as proxy land.

This IS exactly the problem with an independent Kashmir Valley. It will become the Afghanistan of South Asia.

 

[third eye]

I believe a solution that should be acceptable to all would be for Pakistan & India to retain GB & Ladakh respectively, & for AJK & J&K to unite & form an independent state. However, I do not know if this solution will necessarily be accepted by India, although it will be accepted by the people of J&K, AJK, GB, Ladakh & most probably Pakistan as well. I also do not know if such a model (an independent Kashmir state comprising of AJK & J&K) sandwiched between India, Pakistan will be a viable one in the long run.

Neither will a state as described above be workable nor will the highlighted part above be acceptable.

Conversion of LC to IB is the only option, this too would be a big come down for India & GOI will have to do some hard explaining.

 

[53fd]

The point is you have said the problem lies with AJK and J&K. Not really.
The problem lies in the six districts of Kashmir Valley (Kupwara, Baramulla,Sri Nagar,Pulwama,Budgam and Anantnag, with Sri Nagar being the most troublesome) and not by a long shot in Jammu areas (Jammu,Udhampur,Kathua,Rajouri,Poonch,Doda etc). In those areas the people feel as much Indian as any one else in the rest of India.

Well, just to put things in perspective, the population of Srinagar District by itself is 1,238,530. The entire population of Indian Administered Kashmir (including Kashmir Valley, Ladakh, Jammu) is 12,548,926.

Meaning that Srinagar District by itself holds almost 10% of the entire population of Indian Administered Kashmir.

Some other statistics for you:

These are the figures I got from wikipedia about Indian administered Kashmir:

Division Population % Muslim % Hindu % Sikh % Buddhist/Other
Kashmir (53.9%) 5,476,970 97.16% 1.84% 0.88% 0.11%
Jammu (43.7%) 4,430,191 30.69% 65.23% 3.57% 0.51%
Ladakh (2.3%) 236,539 47.40% 6.22% – 45.87%
Jammu & Kashmir (Total) 10,143,700 66.97% 29.63% 2.03% 1.36%

There are 67% Muslims in Indian Administered Kashmir, & about 30% Hindus. There are 31% Muslims in Jammu as well. And Jammu comprises 43.7% of the whole Indian Administered Kashmir.

31/100 * 43.7 = 13.5%

Let's say that about half of the Muslims in Jammu support independence, whereas half want to remain with India. That's about 7%. Also remember that about 54% of the total land area is the Kashmir Valley which is rife with separatist movements. In the Kashmir Valley area, let's say about 51% of the 54% wants independence from India. As you can tabulate, close to 60% still want independence from India.

Most Kashmiris say they want freedom from India. Polling since 1995 has found at least two-thirds of those living in the Kashmir valley want independence. Some older Kashmiris still talk of joining Pakistan, but two-thirds of Kashmiris under age 30 mostly want independence.

Kashmir 101: Decoding Kashmir's conflict - What do Kashmiris want now? - CSMonitor.com

Most Kashmiris want independence, India imposes curfew | Asia-Pasific | World Bulletin

 

[rockstarIN]

Well it can be vice versa, isn't?

we are watching the same, BRICS, EU, ASEAN etc...

 

[Hulk]

Good thread hope something comes out from discussion. Like this thread a solution will come if people with strong feeling keep quit, because those types can give you war not solution.

 

[KS]

Well, just to put things in perspective, the population of Srinagar District by itself is 1,238,530. The entire population of Indian Administered Kashmir (including Kashmir Valley, Ladakh, Jammu) is 12,548,926.

Meaning that Srinagar District by itself holds almost 10% of the entire population of Indian Administered Kashmir.

Did I not agree that the Azadi sentiment is high in the six districts of Kashmir Valley and hence the autonomy ?

Doesn't matter if it comprises of 10% or 99%. Whatever is Kashmir Valley needs autonomy and by that definition its the six districts that I mentioned. (Sorry to the Gujjars and Bakerwals who want to do nothing with Azadi or Pakistan...But that has to be a compromise.)

Some other statistics for you:

These are the figures I got from wikipedia about Indian administered Kashmir:

Division Population % Muslim % Hindu % Sikh % Buddhist/Other
Kashmir (53.9%) 5,476,970 97.16% 1.84% 0.88% 0.11%
Jammu (43.7%) 4,430,191 30.69% 65.23% 3.57% 0.51%
Ladakh (2.3%) 236,539 47.40% 6.22% – 45.87%
Jammu & Kashmir (Total) 10,143,700 66.97% 29.63% 2.03% 1.36%

There are 67% Muslims in Indian Administered Kashmir, & about 30% Hindus. There are 31% Muslims in Jammu as well. And Jammu comprises 43.7% of the whole Indian Administered Kashmir.

31/100 * 43.7 = 13.5%

Let's say that about half of the Muslims in Jammu support independence, whereas half want to remain with India. That's about 7%. Also remember that about 54% of the total land area is the Kashmir Valley which is rife with separatist movements. In the Kashmir Valley area, let's say about 51% of the 54% wants independence from India. As you can tabulate, close to 60% still want independence from India.



Kashmir 101: Decoding Kashmir's conflict - What do Kashmiris want now? - CSMonitor.com

Most Kashmiris want independence, India imposes curfew | Asia-Pasific | World Bulletin

These stats all are unnecessary. Jammu region wants to merge with India.Simple fact. A trip to J&K will give that out while Kashmir wants Azadi or whatever that definition is.

So separate Jammu region as a state and merge with India, give extensive autonomy to the six districts of Kashmir Valley and Let Ladakh become an UT with the LoC becoming IB.