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Research calls for new dams to save Pakistan
Emphasis laid on building Kalabagh Dam
Asim Javed
LAHORE: Following the gradual rise of temperature of Upper Indus Basin (UIB), Pakistan faces imminent socio-economic threats, its only solution remaining the construction of dams to prevent the risks of flooding in Hindukush -Karakorum-Hamalaya (HKM) region.
A recent research on climate change impact on water racecourses at the end of the 21st Centenary focused on the three basin-river, Northern Hunza and Gilgit and southern Astore River, suggested that their temperature and precipitation would treble the chances of flood, further exacerbated by global warming. The call remains the construction of new dams, marked as the need of the hour to prevent high-speed of flood and survival of the ecosystem. In the upcoming years, same eco factors would be observed in India and China over an immense inflow of water discharge in the rivers, raised as a result of global warming. The study further harped on serious threats, to be fronted by Pakistan if it failed to construct more dams, imperative for the safety of all concerned.
Reportedly, UIB remains a critical source of water, but its 100 percent inflow in Tarbela and 30 percent in Mangla is derived from glacial-melting snow.
As per the research, a general increase in temperature and precipitation during 2071-2100 is evident in the Northern Hunza and Gilgit river basins, which will experience more warming, relative to the Southern Astore river basin. Besides, the Hunza river basin is dependant on temperature while the Gilgit Astore on the preceding winter precipitation, hence citing higher uncertainties when compared to the former. Under the study of Muhammad Akhtar PhD scholar Punjab University Geology Department, three HBV model were conducted including HBV-Met, HBV-ERA and HBV-PRECIS and using two approach delta change approach and direct use of PRECIS (providing regional climate for impact studies). He warned that in the next six decades, the mass of glacier would be changed in three stages; 100 percent glacier, 50 percent glacier and 0 percent. The amplitude of the annual discharge cycle will increase in a changed climate under 100 percent glacier according to HBV-PRECIS model, -91percent in Hunza River, Gilgit -78 percent, Astore -93percent, while if the half mass is decreased Hunza discharge will be -13 percent, Gilgit -20 percent, Astore -24 percent and if it changes none, Hunza discharge 65 percent, Gilgit 40 percent and Astore 46 percent.
The direct use of Regional Climate Model (RCM) output(HBV-Met PRECIS model) indicated that the magnitude of annual maximum flood is likely to increase in future in all the river basins .But the discharge will generally increase, indication of high-risk of flood in Hindukush -Karakorum-Hamalaya (HKM) region. The three river basin temperature and precipitation will also be increased, ranging between 0.83,-3, and 09 C, where before it had been from 6 to 23 percent.
Talking to The Post, Muhammad Akhtar stressed on the need for new dams in Pakistan, 'the best utilization of water to be interlinked with storing water not for the sake of its people but also for the growing economy.'
To a question, he urged the government stop retarding construction of the Kala Bagh Dam, delay in which would mean an end to the country's sovereignty.
Research calls for new dams to save Pakistan
Emphasis laid on building Kalabagh Dam
Asim Javed
LAHORE: Following the gradual rise of temperature of Upper Indus Basin (UIB), Pakistan faces imminent socio-economic threats, its only solution remaining the construction of dams to prevent the risks of flooding in Hindukush -Karakorum-Hamalaya (HKM) region.
A recent research on climate change impact on water racecourses at the end of the 21st Centenary focused on the three basin-river, Northern Hunza and Gilgit and southern Astore River, suggested that their temperature and precipitation would treble the chances of flood, further exacerbated by global warming. The call remains the construction of new dams, marked as the need of the hour to prevent high-speed of flood and survival of the ecosystem. In the upcoming years, same eco factors would be observed in India and China over an immense inflow of water discharge in the rivers, raised as a result of global warming. The study further harped on serious threats, to be fronted by Pakistan if it failed to construct more dams, imperative for the safety of all concerned.
Reportedly, UIB remains a critical source of water, but its 100 percent inflow in Tarbela and 30 percent in Mangla is derived from glacial-melting snow.
As per the research, a general increase in temperature and precipitation during 2071-2100 is evident in the Northern Hunza and Gilgit river basins, which will experience more warming, relative to the Southern Astore river basin. Besides, the Hunza river basin is dependant on temperature while the Gilgit Astore on the preceding winter precipitation, hence citing higher uncertainties when compared to the former. Under the study of Muhammad Akhtar PhD scholar Punjab University Geology Department, three HBV model were conducted including HBV-Met, HBV-ERA and HBV-PRECIS and using two approach delta change approach and direct use of PRECIS (providing regional climate for impact studies). He warned that in the next six decades, the mass of glacier would be changed in three stages; 100 percent glacier, 50 percent glacier and 0 percent. The amplitude of the annual discharge cycle will increase in a changed climate under 100 percent glacier according to HBV-PRECIS model, -91percent in Hunza River, Gilgit -78 percent, Astore -93percent, while if the half mass is decreased Hunza discharge will be -13 percent, Gilgit -20 percent, Astore -24 percent and if it changes none, Hunza discharge 65 percent, Gilgit 40 percent and Astore 46 percent.
The direct use of Regional Climate Model (RCM) output(HBV-Met PRECIS model) indicated that the magnitude of annual maximum flood is likely to increase in future in all the river basins .But the discharge will generally increase, indication of high-risk of flood in Hindukush -Karakorum-Hamalaya (HKM) region. The three river basin temperature and precipitation will also be increased, ranging between 0.83,-3, and 09 C, where before it had been from 6 to 23 percent.
Talking to The Post, Muhammad Akhtar stressed on the need for new dams in Pakistan, 'the best utilization of water to be interlinked with storing water not for the sake of its people but also for the growing economy.'
To a question, he urged the government stop retarding construction of the Kala Bagh Dam, delay in which would mean an end to the country's sovereignty.
