Redefining the Policy over Yemen Crisis & New Era for Pak-KSA relations

[BHarwana]

See it has more pro then cons , ksa was always ready to inveat but ganja goon was asking his malai

Pros yes they are there but cons are also there. The best case scenario would have been if it was our own investment. That would have been lovely. Yes there are more pros then cons. In the end who cares? There is so much free land in Balochistan tomorrow if we want we can make one our selves.

 

[django]

A new era of Pakistan-KSA relation begins yesterday when Pakistan officially Invited KSA to become Partner in CPEC project , and today against the expectation the Saudi's become the first country after Pakistan and China to become a Strategic Partner in CPEC , A deal was signed to not give Pakistan few Billion dollars and Oil but something far more fruitful , The Saudi's decide to build a Oil City in Gwadar along with a Oil Refinery . While Prime Minister Imran Khan was busy in his Diplomacy in KSA bringing the best out of his first official Foreign trip , the COAS was in China on a Visit by Chinese President ( Xi ) .

I believe in near Future we will be seeing Pakistan Army if not in Yemen but in border Areas on Saudi Arabia . some of the recent Developments are hinting towards a flexible strategy from Pakistan in terms of Yemen war . Today PM Pakistan give an interview to a Arabic TV saying " We will not let any Country Attack KSA " , understanding this statement from PM khan I believe he is indirectly talking about the Houthie Rebels and them often Launching SCUD missiles in the Kingdom . The other regional Rival for KSA is Iran which is a constant hostility against the Kingdom , their conflict is strictly religious and Sectarian which so far has burned multiple Middle eastern Countries .

So, What if Pakistan Army sends some 20,000-25,000 Troops in KSA/Yemen ? we have stayed neutral in Yemen War under Raheel Sharif which I personally support the Decision , but now I am starting to rethink on that Neutrality like many Other Pakistani's , Iran was and still is involved in Anti Pakistan activities , we have catch a high level India Spy from Baluchistan who enter Pakistan from Iran and than there was famous Liyari Gang war head Uzair Baluch who happens to be a Iranian Citizen caught by UAE and handed over to Pakistani Authorities . Iran is about to be hit by another wave of Sanctions by America and with Trump leading the Charge Anyone who will not side with him will face his twitter fury .

Some of the PDF members along with me have had major concerns on Pakistan army sending troops in Yemen . some of them were
1) A strife between a Shia and Sunni Population in Pakistan .
2) Why would our PA soldiers will die for some other country and their WAR .

A Conflict between the two Major sects in Pakistan is highly unlikely over Yemen Crisis , in fact Pakistani troops entering Yemen not as Invaders but a Peace keeping force to stabilize the Situation can be welcomed by the Shia's in Pakistan , as a lot of the Shia world wide is pointing their Fingers at KSA and other GCC allies to brutally target civilians and blockades that put thousands of Yemeni Kids without food and basic Medical needs . Second reason is why would our soldiers Die for KSA's Fight , we don't want our Forces to work as Mercenaries but upon thinking I realized that American in Kuwait War came to rescue KSA from the Iraq and in Return they got Contracts and Billions of dollars worth Defense deals and Projects from the Kingdom . Let us be honest here that our main rival is India , A country that is more than 10 times larger than Pakistan , They have the standing Army of around 1.2 Million almost double the size of PA , their Airforce is More Modernized than PAF with more Capable fighters and many more Modern Fighters joining their ranks , there is no Question that their Navy is huge and not even comparable to PN , our Navy has initiated some of the Modernization programs by Purchasing 8 AIP Submarines , 4 Type 54A 's and Possibly 4 ADA class corvette from Turkey but All of those inductions will take a fair time and by the time IN will be even more stronger and more Advance than what we will have . If we want to keep the Minimum deterrence against the Indian Armed Forces we need Money to purchase a lot more than what we are , Our purchasing Power is so poor that we have to reject the most need 8 F-16's block52 and later 12 AH-Z1 from the US as both of them we wanted under the CSF which America is cutting shorter every year and finally put a stop to all AID few weeks back when they stop last remaining 300 Million dollars of CSF .

So how can we benefit from Entering this Yemen Conflict as a balancing force with a narrative of a Peace keeping force ? the Following list is strictly my personal view Point so you are open to criticize them but i hope you do in civilized way .
In this Hypothetical Situation lets say Pakistan formally enters the conflict by sending around 25,000 troops to Yemen . this is what i would want to happen or what Pakistan should ask for in return

1- Around 5B$ on yearly basis .
2- 20-40 MARPS for Patrolling the Hostile territories in Yemen . ( Paid by Saudi's )
3- Ask Kingdom to use its Influence on America to release the 18 F-16's and 12 AH-Z1 with a possible future follow up order for another 12 Zulus , so we can station 4-6 units in our base to provide Air support to our troops in case of any Ambush or engagements .
4- Station 10 Armed Drones .
5- Station a full squadron of JF-17 thunder block 2 into KSA .
6- Ask Saudi's to Install a PAC battery inside PA base to protect it against any SCUD missile , and also help PA purchase a SHORAD like BukM2 or Pantsir S2 .

I understand some of the things sounds unreal and stupid but we are living in a strange World where the Geopolitics in the region is changing with every Month . Pakistan is the only country which not just crushed a Full scale insurgency but solve the humanitarian crisis of more than a Million IDP's inside the war torn Area . Our forces and their Experience in fighting the Guerrilla Warfare is among the best in the world which puts Pakistan in a unique Situation .

Lets discuss this, Please refrain from Troll fest , Sectarian BS or India Pakistan war Past .

@Horus @Oscar @HRK @war&peace @Indus Pakistan @django @Inception-06 @MastanKhan @DESERT FIGHTER @tps77 @Signalian @Zarvan @TOPGUN @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Mentee @Hell hound @pakistanipower @AUz @Mrc @Maarkhoor @Moonlight @Retired Troll @somebozo @BHarwana @xyxmt @Jango @Jungibaaz

Hi Starlord, PTI was staunchly opposed to any military intervention in Yemen and so were the Generals, if their is any intervention (and I am skeptical that their will be) it should strictly be limited to naval patrols and air sorties, I do not wish to see Pak jawans lose their lives in what is frankly a futile war which does not seem to have a clearly defined final objective of what is victory. In regards to Saudi investment, if they feel it is financially lucrative they will go ahead irrespective of any intervention in Yemen and as for Saudis pressurizing the Yanks into providing us with high-tech weaponry, the Saudis themselves are not permitted to attain state of the art weaponry due to the Israeli occupied territory that is Capitol Hill, I doubt they will heed to words of the Saudis.Kudos Starlord

 

[Tps43]

cons are also there.

Yup but u calculate it before hand and I think this shot is worthy for us what really matters.

 

[YeBeWarned]

This is a very convoluted perspective @Starlord , and I would have one as well.
Have the Saudis really invested in CPEC? Or is this their investment “again” in Pakistan since they need their security?
Back when Gwadar was cited as Pakistan’s future there was the same commitment by Arabs to investment, which turned out to be a delaying tactic because they did not want Gwadar to compete with Dubai.

Still, what if it is a true “investment”? Considering we have recently calmed things with Iran, is this a request for working back to the usual things or a request to help clean up Yemen where the Egyptians and other forces arent able to?

Notbing is free.

I think you made a valid point but don't you think that Pakistan and its Policy towards Arab nations has improved over time ? and not just we have a new leadership but MBS is making huge waves in Kingdom , his approach is very different and bold compared to other kings . I do think he needs and get all the help he can get as want to be seen as a victor in this Yemen war , Just like the Americans in Afghanistan now this becomes more of a Ego and matter of personal Pride . As for investment KSA knows this that even if they delay they wont be able to keep it for far long cause China is ready to take their position and probably Qatar too ..

UAE is a small country but again like KSA they are desperate to get some results in Yemen war which they are not getting it despite the bombings and raids . I strongly believe this recent developments are hinting towards a major shift in Pakistan's policy towards Yemen , Pakistan needs money , weapons and support if it comes at a cost of helping a country out of their war than so be it . we are doing this for over a decade for Americans without much getting in return , so lets do this for Arabs this time ? at least our crazy Mullah's wont blow themselves up for that.

See it has more pro then cons , ksa was always ready to inveat but ganja goon was asking his malai

Pros and Cons are matter of Prospectus bhai , you can easily turned a con to your pro if you want to

 

[SQ8]

I think you made a valid point but don't you think that Pakistan and its Policy towards Arab nations has improved over time ? and not just we have a new leadership but MBS is making huge waves in Kingdom , his approach is very different and bold compared to other kings . I do think he needs and get all the help he can get as want to be seen as a victor in this Yemen war , Just like the Americans in Afghanistan now this becomes more of a Ego and matter of personal Pride . As for investment KSA knows this that even if they delay they wont be able to keep it for far long cause China is ready to take their position and probably Qatar too ..

UAE is a small country but again like KSA they are desperate to get some results in Yemen war which they are not getting it despite the bombings and raids . I strongly believe this recent developments are hinting towards a major shift in Pakistan's policy towards Yemen , Pakistan needs money , weapons and support if it comes at a cost of helping a country out of their war than so be it . we are doing this for over a decade for Americans without much getting in return , so lets do this for Arabs this time ? at least our crazy Mullah's wont blow themselves up for that.



Pros and Cons are matter of Prospectus bhai , you can easily turned a con to your pro if you want to

I don’t doubt MBS need to reform and step out of the old dependancies of Saudis in the past, but the UAE&Qatar isn’t always looking in Pakistani interest.

I don’t doubt that we should be involved in Yemen in some peacekeeping capacity in exchance for assistance but we have a Shia population that is under Iranian political influence via their religious figureheads just as most muslims are due to Makkah and Medina being in Saudi Arabia.

That is the worrisome part, to avoid a local society blowback. Here the idea of having a Pakistani military based PMC works out, have no liability with these gentlemen as a private organization yet the ability to operate in hot spots.

 

[El Sidd]

Pros and Cons are matter of Prospectus bhai , you can easily turned a con to your pro if you want to

Everything is con if one does not want to Change ones state.

Yemen was already 50 years behind before the war.

A key strategic real estate one should not neglect.

 

[YeBeWarned]

I don’t doubt MBS need to reform and step out of the old dependancies of Saudis in the past, but the UAE&Qatar isn’t always looking in Pakistani interest.

MBS is doing what he could to bring something out of this conflict , this war is going nowhere GCC cant do anything better which America and NATO already did in Afghanistan . In a proxy you need allies and leaving out Pakistan would be a big mistake .

I don’t doubt that we should be involved in Yemen in some peacekeeping capacity in exchance for assistance but we have a Shia population that is under Iranian political influence via their religious figureheads just as most muslims are due to Makkah and Medina being in Saudi Arabia.

The Houthies are not main stream Shia AFAIK , their legitimacy so far is that Iran is supporting them not because they care but they see them as a tool to be used against their rival KSA .Pakistan has moved on from that Shia/Sunni Conflict as many of the primary Sunni's and Shia ullema are time to time exchange positive dialog's .

That is the worrisome part, to avoid a local society blowback. Here the idea of having a Pakistani military based PMC works out, have no liability with these gentlemen as a private organization yet the ability to operate in hot spots.

Limited role just to keep peace for a city or certain area will not make PA look Yazeed over night, Yemen is in worse position and Houthies are suffering heavily , even worse that Yemeni people are suffering .. I see Pakistan and PA as a balancing factor in this conflict ( aka Peace keepers ) , and if we take something out of it than why not ? ?

 

[SQ8]

MBS is doing what he could to bring something out of this conflict , this war is going nowhere GCC cant do anything better which America and NATO already did in Afghanistan . In a proxy you need allies and leaving out Pakistan would be a big mistake .



The Houthies are not main stream Shia AFAIK , their legitimacy so far is that Iran is supporting them not because they care but they see them as a tool to be used against their rival KSA .Pakistan has moved on from that Shia/Sunni Conflict as many of the primary Sunni's and Shia ullema are time to time exchange positive dialog's .



Limited role just to keep peace for a city or certain area will not make PA look Yazeed over night, Yemen is in worse position and Houthies are suffering heavily , even worse that Yemeni people are suffering .. I see Pakistan and PA as a balancing factor in this conflict ( aka Peace keepers ) , and if we take something out of it than why not ? ?

Hence the peacekeeping role. We announce we are going in as a peacekeeping force. If the Iranians push the Houthis to attack, we have grounds to make their lives miserable and we really can if we wanted to. We give the Arabs the incentive of painting this as a victory for peace and securing Yemeni future via development.

If Machiavellian ideals are applied would be to quietly suggest that the Chinese be allowed to build a base in Yemen. That will create some pushback but would give some balance to the game in the middle east and have China feel more confident about its fuel life lines.

 

[YeBeWarned]

Hence the peacekeeping role. We announce we are going in as a peacekeeping force. If the Iranians push the Houthis to attack, we have grounds to make their lives miserable and we really can if we wanted to. We give the Arabs the incentive of painting this as a victory for peace and securing Yemeni future via development.

If Machiavellian ideals are applied would be to quietly suggest that the Chinese be allowed to build a base in Yemen. That will create some pushback but would give some balance to the game in the middle east and have China feel more confident about its fuel life lines.

exactly my point .. we have less to lose and more to gain here if we do play our cards well .

 

[HAIDER]

We lost more then what we gain from not joining the War...………… Tell me one thing , Iran is neutral or Anti Pakistan...……….. Iran is fully Anti Pakistan...……… Check sectarian violence in GB and don't forget Uzair balooch , kalbhoshan , and that mola Mansoor .

Let me tell you all one thing , If KSA failed (some thing like Libya or Syria) Pakistani economy will go down with it automatically ,,,,,, Why , very simple , KSA failure means failure UAE too and that will result in 5m+ Pakistani coming back home...……. Do the other maths by your selves …...

Don't worry KSA protect its own interests. After all for bigger gain , they didn't vote Pakistan in FATF.

Hence the peacekeeping role. We announce we are going in as a peacekeeping force. If the Iranians push the Houthis to attack, we have grounds to make their lives miserable and we really can if we wanted to. We give the Arabs the incentive of painting this as a victory for peace and securing Yemeni future via development.

If Machiavellian ideals are applied would be to quietly suggest that the Chinese be allowed to build a base in Yemen. That will create some pushback but would give some balance to the game in the middle east and have China feel more confident about its fuel life lines.

Yemen is always a democracy. They deserve elections. Otherwise Houthis rule Yemen for long time. These tribal feuds never ending. Plus lots of foriegn mercenaries on ground helping both UAE and KSA forces.

 

[Tps43]

@Starlord Bhai jan there are cons as well but they will be ignored now imagine if ksa buys F 15SA for us some naughty thoughts :p

 

[BHarwana]

Yup but u calculate it before hand and I think this shot is worthy for us what really matters.

Yes we need the Saudi investment as Chinese would have taken time and Saudis can immediately start.

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

One thing regarding the sunni-shia spectacle and Saudi Arabia that I wonder about is how was Musharraf able to handle it? Musharraf was raised as a shia AFAIK yet his tenure was pro KSA and reasonably friendly with Iran.

In recent times he even endorsed the idea of backing KSA in the qatar scuffle

Musharaf wasnt shia.

 

[YeBeWarned]

@Starlord Bhai jan there are cons as well but they will be ignored now imagine if ksa buys F 15SA for us some naughty thoughts :p

bas ker pagle ..

 

[CHACHA"G"]

Don't worry KSA protect its own interests. After all for bigger gain , they didn't vote Pakistan in FATF.

Every country does that ,,,,,,,,,, KSA also helped a lot ,,,,,,, more then any country,,,,,,,, way more then Iran