Featured Project Azm: Pakistan's Ambitious Quest to Develop 5th Generation Military Technologies.

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

A post with random thoughts to keep the thread alive.

Some uncomfortable truths:
We here at defence.pk have made LCA the butt of many jokes and continue to do so. Of course the LCA program has had many many teething problems and a lot of the criticism is justified, albeit misdirected at the engineering prowess of the Indians. What we must understand now is that with Project Azm we are now embarking on a program that will have the same kind of hiccups and delays that India faced with LCA. It's not about who is better or "God-gifted" at aerospace engineering. It's just the learning curve that everyone must navigate. India has navigated that curve the past 3 decades. We have done some parts of it but most of it lies in front of us in the shape of Project Azm. We must ask ourselves: do we have the stomach to soldier on with Azm in the face of delays, cost overruns, and failures? Has the PAF accounted for these things in their planning or are they going to make the same mistake as the Indians by overestimating their own capabilities? Perhaps it is best to learn from the Indian experience than to repeat it.

Also, no matter what the patriotic bone in your body says, the Indian aerospace industry is technically more advanced than ours. I actually feel that it is my patriotic duty to point this out so we can do something about it. The Indians have been let down by poor project management (to put it succinctly). This means that we should not be surprised if we take more time to develop Azm than even the LCA. The Indian planners have made the strategic decision to not cancel LCA even though it looked like a failure at many instances. They could stomach this "loss" due to their large economy. I wonder if we have the stomach to make such a strategic decision for Azm. Make no mistake: Azm will require the same unwavering, decades-long "commitment to the cause" that the nuclear program required. That program had a national buy-in. Everyone was on board. I wonder if there is a similar national buy-in into Azm, or is it just PAF's pet-project that will be axed if/when the times get tough.

Silver linings:
I hate cliches but a journey of a thousand steps begin with the first. The mere fact that something like Azm is being pursed with such seriousness is revolutionary for Pakistan. As an aerospace engineer this gives me great hope. At least we are trying. Azm may have long-lasting effects on the economy and defense industry of Pakistan.

Some unsolicited advice:
These are just some things that should be done:

1. Fund research in universities and hire from universities. I've heard of "industry-academia linkages" dramaybazi for a decade now but it needs to be turned into a reality for Azm. Firstly, AvRID needs some mechanism where it funds 3-5 years projects that can support 4-5 graduate students in universities. These projects should be things AvRID does not have expertise for, does not need expertise in immediately, and needs expertise in eventually. This might look like high-risk investment but it pays great dividends in the long-run. A lot of the experts you will train in universities will come and work for you. This may even give a much-needed boost in research in universities that is badly needed. Our universities are a great, untapped asset that most planners don't seem to appreciate. It will be unfortunate if Turkey and China appreciate our universities more than our own organizations and benefit from our tax-payer money used to run these universities.
2. Have faith in civilian experts. There is a tendency to only trust armed-forces personnel. This has worked great for SPD organizations but this won't work for something like Azm. Our air-force has very limited and very lop-sided expertise that are a function of what they have been asked to do over the years. They've never designed an FGFA and they don't have the expertise for it. Nobody should be shocked by this. PAF is an air force, it is not Boeing or Lockheed Martin. They need to get the expertise in the shape of civilians that will know better. I know a lot of PAF babas personally that will get sick if they have to admit that a civilian expert is better than them or agree/listen to them. Pride is good. Arrogance is toxic.
3. Once FGFA goes into production, establish a separate factory (AMF-2?) for it and don't just expand AMF at PAC. This is for two reasons: 1-Allows us to make JF-17 unhindered. 2- Distributes the risk of loss of production in case of attacks. The Azm factory could be nearby Attock for logistical reasons but keep it separate.

I agree.

Moreover, the PAF doesn't need to bet the house on AZM.

The PAF can take a hybrid approach to its next-gen fighter plans by (1) rolling into a consortium with China (most realistic avenue) and (2) separately design and develop an experimental platform to build domestic R&D.

This doesn't free us from mistakes, delays, or even embarrassment on the indigenous side, but at least learning doesn't come at the cost of fulfilling requirements. Likewise, we may not even manufacture the demonstrator or experimental platform, but it'll build a real world basis to design and build a fighter indigenously.

We can have our cake and eat it too (literally the definition of halwa puri).

The issue with this avenue is that it takes a lot of patience. You can easily cull the tech demo because, well, the consortium fighter meets one's needs. This is the sort of patience and out of box thinking we generally squeeze out, sadly.

 

[JamD]

5. Dont forget ur talent abroad. I was sad when I told @messiach that someone out of love from one of the top aerospace companies wants to come and volunteer to work for a Pak program, and she just brushed it off by saying Pak already has talent in her universities. Every major country is spending to attract talent but Pak is shooing those away that dont even need money to attract. I'm a nobody and i came across 2 such ppl from the top 3 aerospace companies. What Could u achieve if instead of telling them to get lost u made a global call to Pakistanis to come contribute?

Yes, we do have a dangerous mix of over-ambitiousness and pessimism. We have great local talent and no ability to do anything at the same time. Pakistani talent should be called Schrodinger's talent lol. I have posted this many times before and I'll repeat it here again. The foreign office needs to be looped in to actively pursue and facilitate expat experts. I have repeatedly written on this forum that India does this very actively and that this is something that needs to be replicated.

 

[Armchair]

Yes, we do have a dangerous mix of over-ambitiousness and pessimism. We have great local talent and no ability to do anything at the same time. Pakistani talent should be called Schrodinger's talent lol. I have posted this many times before and I'll repeat it here again. The foreign office needs to be looped in to actively pursue and facilitate expat experts. I have repeatedly written on this forum that India does this very actively and that this is something that needs to be replicated.

Foreign office wont be as effective as if IK makes an appeal, and the Azm project sets up a team and office dedicated to recruit like the Mossad does.

 

[JamD]

Yes, we do have a dangerous mix of over-ambitiousness and pessimism. We have great local talent and no ability to do anything at the same time. Pakistani talent should be called Schrodinger's talent lol. I have posted this many times before and I'll repeat it here again. The foreign office needs to be looped in to actively pursue and facilitate expat experts. I have repeatedly written on this forum that India does this very actively and that this is something that needs to be replicated.

Also, we tend to confuse talent and expertise. To me talent is a vague, unquantifiable potential of someone. Talent isn't a directly usable asset. Expertise on the other hand is something you can count on and need. We may have lots of talent (whatever that is) but talent will not build Azm (nor did it build the bomb), expertise will.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Yes, we do have a dangerous mix of over-ambitiousness and pessimism. We have great local talent and no ability to do anything at the same time. Pakistani talent should be called Schrodinger's talent lol. I have posted this many times before and I'll repeat it here again. The foreign office needs to be looped in to actively pursue and facilitate expat experts. I have repeatedly written on this forum that India does this very actively and that this is something that needs to be replicated.

I don't know if it's in our genetic make-up, but I can boil it all down to this one little reaction I saw.

So I was with a friend, and I told him a fact which was 100% true, but it was so out of belief for him that he refused to believe it. Even if I offered context on why, he said, "no way, no way, this is nonsense" basically.

This guy didn't even ask for proof, but he totally refused to understand what the issue was and stuck with a preconceived notion. It isn't as if the guy was unreasonable in general, he's great a lot of the time, but in one-off, crunch moments like that one, even he can eff-it-up bad.

My fear is that someone with the "no way, no way" mentality is going to take AZM to the shed on Eid al-Adha.

 

[JamD]

Foreign office wont be as effective as if IK makes an appeal, and the Azm project sets up a team and office dedicated to recruit like the Mossad does.

I always vote for institutions over personalities. This isn't some clandestine nuclear program that we need to involve intelligence agencies for. In my opinion IK appeals can't do anything. What good is an appeal? An appeal doesn't move me. I don't need to be motivated. I need to be facilitated. I need to be told I have will have a house, this much salary, these benefits, this role and responsibility in the organization, this much freedom to make my own team before I burn all my bridges abroad. An appeal doesn't do any of that.

I don't know if it's in our genetic make-up, but I can boil it all down to this one little reaction I saw.

So I was with a friend, and I told him a fact which was 100% true, but it was so out of belief for him that he refused to believe it. Even if I offered context on why, he said, "no way, no way, this is nonsense" basically.

This guy didn't even ask for proof, but he totally refused to understand what the issue was and stuck with a preconceived notion. It isn't as if the guy was unreasonable in general, he's great a lot of the time, but in one-off, crunch moments like that one, even he can eff-it-up bad.

My fear is that someone with the "no way, no way" mentality is going to take AZM to the shed on Eid al-Adha.

Probably not genetics. Just the way we are brought up. Respect your elders, never disagree, don't ask questions, don't think critically. Having endured such, we expect the same royal obedience when we're old. It takes a special kind of person to say "people treated me unjustly, but I will sacrifice my ego, and not continue the cycle".

 

[Armchair]

I don't know if it's in our genetic make-up, but I can boil it all down to this one little reaction I saw.

So I was with a friend, and I told him a fact which was 100% true, but it was so out of belief for him that he refused to believe it. Even if I offered context on why, he said, "no way, no way, this is nonsense" basically.

This guy didn't even ask for proof, but he totally refused to understand what the issue was and stuck with a preconceived notion. It isn't as if the guy was unreasonable in general, he's great a lot of the time, but in one-off, crunch moments like that one, even he can eff-it-up bad.

My fear is that someone with the "no way, no way" mentality is going to take AZM to the shed on Eid al-Adha.

Story of my life. Something Asghar Bukhari once said made me connect the dots.
So, u have otherwise educated Muslims who have degrees and all but when u ask them to think outside their comfort zones they cant cope with it. Asghar notes this happens because (he thinks), most of our ppl are the first generation to be truly educated. They've read books but the software isn't able to handle the load.
So what he thinks solves this is 3rd gen educated Muslims, with parents and grand parents that are also educated. I hope he is right.

 

[JamD]

I always vote for institutions over personalities. This isn't some clandestine nuclear program that we need to involve intelligence agencies for. In my opinion IK appeals can't do anything. What good is an appeal? An appeal doesn't move me. I don't need to be motivated. I need to be facilitated. I need to be told I have will have a house, this much salary, these benefits, this role and responsibility in the organization, this much freedom to make my own team before I burn all my bridges abroad. An appeal doesn't do any of that.

Also also, to repeat. This kind of effort (that involves the Foreign office for example) will only happen if there is a nation-wide consensus on the importance of Azm (like there was for the nuclear program). Nation-wide: politicians, ALL branches of the military, bureaucracy. If it's just the PAF's ambition project (which seems more likely) this will doom its future. It will be at the mercy of a few people who can decide to cancel the project (Eid-ul-Adha).

 

[Armchair]

I always vote for institutions over personalities. This isn't some clandestine nuclear program that we need to involve intelligence agencies for. In my opinion IK appeals can't do anything. What good is an appeal? An appeal doesn't move me. I don't need to be motivated. I need to be facilitated. I need to be told I have will have a house, this much salary, these benefits, this role and responsibility in the organization, this much freedom to make my own team before I burn all my bridges abroad. An appeal doesn't do any of that.


Probably not genetics. Just the way we are brought up. Respect your elders, never disagree, don't ask questions, don't think critically. Having endured such, we expect the same royal obedience when we're old. It takes a special kind of person to say "people treated me unjustly, but I will sacrifice my ego, and not continue the cycle".

See the foreign office will sit on that info and send a memo to their embassies. The embassies will sit on that info and thats it. I understand where u r coming from. that is the right way. but not when u have a dead diplomatic service.

If IK appeals what will happen is it will actually reach the ears of Pakistanis. They will know so and so STEM area specialists are needed. They can then directly contact the PAC program office and close the deal. Done. No months of waiting and then people moving on with their lives.

This is a band aid. ultimately a monster needs to fix the diplomatic corps.

 

[JamD]

See the foreign office will sit on that info and send a memo to their embassies. The embassies will sit on that info and thats it. I understand where u r coming from. that is the right way. but not when u have a dead diplomatic service.

If IK appeals what will happen is it will actually reach the ears of Pakistanis. They will know so and so STEM area specialists are needed. They can then directly contact the PAC program office and close the deal. Done. No months of waiting and then people moving on with their lives.

This is a band aid. ultimately a monster needs to fix the diplomatic corps.

Like I said, nuclear-program-like urgency and motivation is needed for Azm. Otherwise, this will fail (for the reasons you listed in your post, and other obvious ones).

 

[Falcon26]

I don't know if it's in our genetic make-up, but I can boil it all down to this one little reaction I saw.

So I was with a friend, and I told him a fact which was 100% true, but it was so out of belief for him that he refused to believe it. Even if I offered context on why, he said, "no way, no way, this is nonsense" basically.

This guy didn't even ask for proof, but he totally refused to understand what the issue was and stuck with a preconceived notion. It isn't as if the guy was unreasonable in general, he's great a lot of the time, but in one-off, crunch moments like that one, even he can eff-it-up bad.

My fear is that someone with the "no way, no way" mentality is going to take AZM to the shed on Eid al-Adha.

This story made me chuckle lol

you see this phenomena on this forum a lot. The quick responses of “we don’t have money for that” etc without critically analyzing the issue. It’s frustrating.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

This story made me chuckle lol

you see this phenomena on this forum a lot. The quick responses of “we don’t have money for that” etc without critically analyzing the issue. It’s frustrating.

Yep ... but we got the money for literally everything else under the sun, just not AZM.

 

[Syed1.]

Yep ... but we got the money for literally everything else under the sun, just not AZM.

Speaking of money are we aware of how much is being spent on AZM every year? I haven't come across a separate line item in the budget or planning ministry projects. If PAF is managing from their own resources then it'll be decades before we even see a mock-up.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Speaking of money are we aware of how much is being spent on AZM every year? I haven't come across a separate line item in the budget or planning ministry projects. If PAF is managing from their own resources then it'll be decades before we even see a mock-up.

IIRC ... the very first steps of a fighter project don't require much money, at least for the preliminary design work (which is where PAC is at right now).

However, once you start the process of freezing it (i.e., lots of testing, finding compatible inputs such as engine, etc) the cost starts climbing sharply.

Once you start the process of building a prototype, you're basically asking for around $1 billion US (to build the first one or two prototypes plus set-up jigs for producing them, etc).

I'm probably wrong... @JamD

I suspect the project will continue until we see a frozen design. The PAF will then decide if it wants to continue with a prototype (i.e., the big investment), roll into the FC-31 or TF-X (the two consortium options), or -- if we're lucky -- move to a R&D-only demonstrator project.

I think joining a consortium/partnership with China and, separately, working on a longer-term experimental platform is the ideal route. We secure our near-term needs with a solution that'll work (FC-31/J-35), but at the same time, develop critical technologies at home for use later.

The experimental/demonstrator project can be a fail-safe/free-to-fail opportunity to learn all about flight control tech, aerodynamics, integration, testing, etc. If the resulting expertise is good enough, the PAF can move ahead with an original fighter design later. If not, it can still use that expertise to develop other aircraft, like UCAVs.

I mean, ultimately, I see the initial FGFA (i.e., the consortium fighter be it China or Turkey) as the F-16 replacement. We go into it with the main aim to procure and manufacture parts and sub-assemblies as an offset. Nothing above our reach.

On the other hand, a second NGFA can come through (based on the experimental program) to ultimately replace the JF-17 and/or develop UCAVs or other applications.

Overall, it's a huge shame we never dabbled in an experimental/demonstrator as early as the 1950s or 1960s. Egypt did it with Messerschmitt's help, though it canned it later. In fact, had we embarked on a 'strategic triad' of nuclear + aerospace + electronics in the 1970s, imagine we'd be by now...

 

[StormBreaker]

IIRC ... the very first steps of a fighter project don't require much money, at least for the preliminary design work (which is where PAC is at right now).

However, once you start the process of freezing it (i.e., lots of testing, finding compatible inputs such as engine, etc) the cost starts climbing sharply.

Once you start the process of building a prototype, you're basically asking for around $1 billion US (to build the first one or two prototypes plus set-up jigs for producing them, etc).

I'm probably wrong... @JamD

I suspect the project will continue until we see a frozen design. The PAF will then decide if it wants to continue with a prototype (i.e., the big investment), roll into the FC-31 or TF-X (the two consortium options), or -- if we're lucky -- move to a R&D-only demonstrator project.

I think joining a consortium/partnership with China and, separately, working on a longer-term experimental platform is the ideal route. We secure our near-term needs with a solution that'll work (FC-31/J-35), but at the same time, develop critical technologies at home for use later.

The experimental/demonstrator project can be a fail-safe/free-to-fail opportunity to learn all about flight control tech, aerodynamics, integration, testing, etc. If the resulting expertise is good enough, the PAF can move ahead with an original fighter design later. If not, it can still use that expertise to develop other aircraft, like UCAVs.

I mean, ultimately, I see the initial FGFA (i.e., the consortium fighter be it China or Turkey) as the F-16 replacement. We go into it with the main aim to procure and manufacture parts and sub-assemblies as an offset. Nothing above our reach.

On the other hand, a second NGFA can come through (based on the experimental program) to ultimately replace the JF-17 and/or develop UCAVs or other applications.

Overall, it's a huge shame we never dabbled in an experimental/demonstrator as early as the 1950s or 1960s. Egypt did it with Messerschmitt's help, though it canned it later. In fact, had we embarked on a 'strategic triad' of nuclear + aerospace + electronics in the 1970s, imagine we'd be by now...

Mein kabse yehi bolra hon,
Get the available option with ToT for the immediate needs, Grow AZM till 2040, Modify it again and again as per advancements in the world, For sixth Gen fighter.

Meanwhile, Spend the most on the systems and the weapons and AI, This is what will polish the end fighter.

Not some mere looks or stupid range or agility...