Featured Project Azm: Pakistan's Ambitious Quest to Develop 5th Generation Military Technologies.

[JamD]

He was using advanced jargon to call out an uninformed bully.

Right, and I was arguing why I disagree with that approach as a principle. Would you like people to judge your integrity based on your subject matter knowledge of a topic of my expertise? I don't think you would. So let's not do to others what you don't want done to you. Let's stick to the topic and discuss the topic's merits and demerits. One does not need several PhDs to have opinions on Azm. If you don't like what someone is saying argue with logic or ignore and move on, but don't use "advanced jargon to call out an uninformed bully" because as a principle it is weak and ripe for misuse.

 

[MastanKhan]

I am going to say this and by-God it is not directed at anyone in particular . My thoughts nonetheless (not perfect by any means either)
-Conceptualize
-Design (still requires engineering prowess and premise)
-Validate and bounce concept with existing design by plug and play or iteration (Engineering is involved here too)
-Iterate and validate further independently (still require engineering)
-Validate in realtime scenarios (engineering is still relevant)
-Scale, Scale-up, Scale-out, Scale-across (based on the need => industrialize)

When you start with the thought that we are going to design an F35 you have already bound your thought processes, designs and capabilities that are outside your control.

I would rather take a set of fresh engineers and scientist with least amount of industry biases and design a product that may become groundbreaking. Yes it takes time, but guess what if you are taking 20 years to design an existing design... well.

Hi,

It is agreeable to what you are saying---but from paper to put it in a form is a totally different animal---for that you have to have a fundamental base of engineering manufacturing setup---understanding the level of diofficulty that would be faced---and accepting that level of difficulty.

See---in climbing a mountain---it is not the TOP of the mountain that kills you---it is the slope WHERE MOST CLIMBER DIE.

It is what you thought ordinary that kills you in the process---.

For that very reason---professional climbers prepare to conquer the slope---because once you have conquered the slope---it will automatically lead you to the top if you have the resource---.

But---just to survive the slope is an achievement in itself---like the JF17----.

The SUCCESS of the JF17 program is a part of the conquest of the slope with the right TEAM & THE RIGHT TEAM LEADER---. Just remember what TEAM means---TOGETHER EVERYONE ACHIEVES MORE---.

For that very reason---the most technically advanced nation---the US has JV's with its allies---.

 

[JamD]

What are those requirements?
It is because we need a 5th gen fighter or 6th gen fighter?
Or is it because there is a problem that needs to be solved?

This is the line of thinking - many have all posted this here but it is still incoherent because- going back to scope creep.

View attachment 694419

That is the USAF with a trillion dollar Multi-year budget - how does the PAF stack up with 1/500th of that budget?

Good news: PAF has been transparent to an unprecedented level with regards to Azm.
Bad news: And yet the goals and requirements remain vague (and changing).

Official things said about Azm:

• indigenous and not dependent upon western or eastern partners - Sohail Aman
• Pakistan is engaged with Chinese experts in manufacturing the next generation aircraft - Also Sohail Aman
• a special economic zone (SEZ) [in Pakistan]…to produce a new generation of fighter jets.” This SEZ would produce critical subsystems, such as “navigation systems, radar systems and onboard weapons.” - New York Times
• it will take five years to initiative the production of fifth-generation aircraft. - Sohail Aman in Dec 2017
• First cycle of conceptual design phase has been completed. The first configuration that was designed based on the challenging performance requirements of PAF will go through three more cycles within the conceptual design using higher fidelity analysis tools and codes. - 2017-2018 MoDP Yearbook
• Air Chief Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan, stated that he does not expect the FGFA to become operational for “another decade.”
• twin-engine single-seater, boasting the likes of super-cruise and laser weapons (directed energy weapons). - ASR as defined by Mujahid Anwar
• Turkey's TF-X is in line with what the PAF want. - Chairman of PAC Kamra, Air Marshal Ahmer Shahzad

Here's my "feel" for what has happened. I believe Sohail Aman (who is supposedly one of the main architects of Project Azm) set out an (overly) ambitious plan for Pakistan, perhaps in an effort to "shoot for the moon". This is evident from the 5 year timeline for production given in 2017. Mujahid Anwar Khan, who has inherited the program has made slightly more realistic statements about timelines. There is dilly dallying about collaboration with Turkey and China, and likely as time goes by PAC has realized that all the things that they need collaboration in. However, this is all very low-level detail.

The ASR does give some hints to the high-level thinking here. Or maybe it's just Sohail Aman's overly ambitious ASR being repeated by Mujahid Anwar, that has since been toned down. The last real pieces of official info came out in 2018 and there has been silence ever since.

I wonder if we have think tanks that analyze the future threat environment that PAF will face and propose some kind of guidelines for PAF. Not sure if I've seen anything like this in the public domain.

 

[Goenitz]

@JamD
what do you think is most important thing in a future aircraft or for us..
Engines?
EW suite?
AA missile?
Stealth?
Data link?
etc
We should just focus on that. Achieving total self reliance is a myth. Even branded bread maker cannot produce, wheat, salt, yeast etc by itself. Not to mention the machines which it uses.
So PAF should pick 1-2 things and just focus on that. @MastanKhan rightly said about engineering setup. So we may need robust automobile industry, at least as far as engine is concerned.
Anyway, I think PAF should concentrate on small to big engines for drones, missiles, aircraft and EW components.
Else I believe it is an unattainable goal.

 

[JamD]

@JamD
what do you think is most important thing in a future aircraft or for us..
Engines?
EW suite?
AA missile?
Stealth?
Data link?
etc
We should just focus on that. Achieving total self reliance is a myth. Even branded bread maker cannot produce, wheat, salt, yeast etc by itself. Not to mention the machines which it uses.
So PAF should pick 1-2 things and just focus on that. @MastanKhan rightly said about engineering setup. So we may need robust automobile industry, at least as far as engine is concerned.
Anyway, I think PAF should concentrate on small to big engines for drones, missiles, aircraft and EW components.
Else I believe it is an unteachable goal.

That's an extremely extremely difficult question really. Gun to my head I would pick the following in the following order:

1. AA Missile
   From all accounts this seems to be the key factor in the opening stages (and possibly later stages) of any Indo-Pak aerial engagement. This is also something that is not too crazy difficult like a jet-engine program. Some of the technologies (like solid rockets) we have some command over. Having local production of BVR and short-range IR missiles will give us lots of numbers (so more than 500 AIM 120Cs). Also, this is technology that is not given to us freely (without some form of blackmail).
2. EW Suite and Data link
   I've grouped these two together. Again, production wise these things are "relatively" simple (compared to jet engines), and it really is about the software you put on there (except of course RF electronics). Again by all accounts these things will be game changers in any future conflict.

Why I didn't choose other things.
Engines - too difficult, especially since we want engines that will enable Azm to supercruise. This is a super tall order.
Stealth - I don't know how useful stealth will be in the Indo-Pak scenario. I may be wrong but I feel there is a limited role for true stealth. I say this since I think the radar environment along the Indo-Pak border is too dense and stealth AC will be detected simply due to the number of radars. However, I see a role for limited observables (like Rafale for example). So maybe just focus on frontal aspect stealth for BVR engagements. So sinking tonnes of money and time into achieving full-spectrum/all-aspect stealth may be money time better spent elsewhere.

 

[Goenitz]

AA Missile

EW Suite and Data link

technically air superiority is everything and evident as proved by recent skirmish. I hope we can create such system which can deny IAF to shoot or guide missile, and we can pick them up at even longer range. Stealth may not matter but may be in naval aspect.
There is a news about AI or cognitive EW school/theatre establishment with China. I hope better for future..

 

[The Eagle]

The moderators are not knowledgeable enough to properly judge the technical merit of posts.

The Moderation Team is not meant to judge posts for the merits. Instead, there are title holders based upon their respective knowledge & posting on the Forum either to appreciate, add or counter information. No one is jack of all and none shall claim as such.

Moderation is totally different than what you think or try to imply here. Please keep it away from usual discussion or you can share a detailed observation in GHQ Section where Administration will be available to address & look into it.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

@JamD
what do you think is most important thing in a future aircraft or for us..
Engines?
EW suite?
AA missile?
Stealth?
Data link?
etc
We should just focus on that. Achieving total self reliance is a myth. Even branded bread maker cannot produce, wheat, salt, yeast etc by itself. Not to mention the machines which it uses.
So PAF should pick 1-2 things and just focus on that. @MastanKhan rightly said about engineering setup. So we may need robust automobile industry, at least as far as engine is concerned.
Anyway, I think PAF should concentrate on small to big engines for drones, missiles, aircraft and EW components.
Else I believe it is an unattainable goal.

Artificial intelligence:
to take most of burden of flying the jet from the pilot so that he or she can concentrate on mission. help in fast data processing and decision making

Manned / unmanned option loyal Wingman
: the jet itself acting as a drone. or next generation Burraq drone, RAAD/ Harbah cruise missile or loitering munitions.

Combat cloud:
secure information flow of large data from all friendly forces in air, space, ground and sea in real time to execute a mission.

super cruise for the engine. next generation composite low weight intelligent engines that should be able to fly at sustained high speeds without engaging After burners.

and much more that I wont even pretend to understand
and much more

 

[Goenitz]

Artificial intelligence

Yup but for smart munition. Data fusion already exists and AI will improve that.

Manned / unmanned option loyal Wingman

I think we can't but AI and some loitering munition=yes

super cruise for the engine

that is 2050 goal

Combat cloud:

sure. it is also backbone of AI..

P.S I am expert in none of the above. For that matter, I am not expert at anything but my background is more related to mechanical side.
I mean I am sure you haven't missed this video..

 

[Tipu7]

I once got chance to interact with ACM Sohail Aman during a seminar back in 2018, where I specifically questioned the scope and capacity of PAC to develop a next generation aircraft, considering the fact that we only have experience of joint production of a basic 4th Gen aircraft with China.

His answer was detailed. The portion of his answer which can be shared on public forum was that he has high trust and hope from talent and domestic expertise of Pakistan particularly of PAC. The Azm (NGFA to be more specific) is meant to exceed even contemporary 5th Gen aircrafts in terms of concept. He was very positive about success of the project but he did mention that project might suffer delays upto a decade depending upon circumstances. But project will materialize as it represents the solution to resolve problems which PAF has always faced related to capabilities it has wished to employ. He acknowledged Turkish progression regarding TFX but refused to comment on relationship which TFX shares with Azm. He specified that J31 is not Azm and he himself was not an admirer of J31 (back then there was notion that J31 could be Azm).

As far as I know, the new PAF leadership took major changes in PAF force modernization and indigenization pattern. After Mujahid Anwar took over, Several important people were replaced from important positions and few projects were deliberately put on hold or were stripped down - Economics being a major contributing factor. I believe, both Jf17 and Azm projects are victims of lack of synchronization and commitment of PAF chaging leaderships. Financial restrictions narrows down our option even further.

Good news: PAF has been transparent to an unprecedented level with regards to Azm.
Bad news: And yet the goals and requirements remain vague (and changing).

Official things said about Azm:

• indigenous and not dependent upon western or eastern partners - Sohail Aman
• Pakistan is engaged with Chinese experts in manufacturing the next generation aircraft - Also Sohail Aman
• a special economic zone (SEZ) [in Pakistan]…to produce a new generation of fighter jets.” This SEZ would produce critical subsystems, such as “navigation systems, radar systems and onboard weapons.” - New York Times
• it will take five years to initiative the production of fifth-generation aircraft. - Sohail Aman in Dec 2017
• First cycle of conceptual design phase has been completed. The first configuration that was designed based on the challenging performance requirements of PAF will go through three more cycles within the conceptual design using higher fidelity analysis tools and codes. - 2017-2018 MoDP Yearbook
• Air Chief Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan, stated that he does not expect the FGFA to become operational for “another decade.”
• twin-engine single-seater, boasting the likes of super-cruise and laser weapons (directed energy weapons). - ASR as defined by Mujahid Anwar
• Turkey's TF-X is in line with what the PAF want. - Chairman of PAC Kamra, Air Marshal Ahmer Shahzad

Here's my "feel" for what has happened. I believe Sohail Aman (who is supposedly one of the main architects of Project Azm) set out an (overly) ambitious plan for Pakistan, perhaps in an effort to "shoot for the moon". This is evident from the 5 year timeline for production given in 2017. Mujahid Anwar Khan, who has inherited the program has made slightly more realistic statements about timelines. There is dilly dallying about collaboration with Turkey and China, and likely as time goes by PAC has realized that all the things that they need collaboration in. However, this is all very low-level detail.

The ASR does give some hints to the high-level thinking here. Or maybe it's just Sohail Aman's overly ambitious ASR being repeated by Mujahid Anwar, that has since been toned down. The last real pieces of official info came out in 2018 and there has been silence ever since.

I wonder if we have think tanks that analyze the future threat environment that PAF will face and propose some kind of guidelines for PAF. Not sure if I've seen anything like this in the public domain.

 

[JamD]

Artificial intelligence:
to take most of burden of flying the jet from the pilot so that he or she can concentrate on mission. help in fast data processing and decision making

Manned / unmanned option loyal Wingman
: the jet itself acting as a drone. or next generation Burraq drone, RAAD/ Harbah cruise missile or loitering munitions.

A possibly low-hanging fruit for us that should be very seriously pursued. Many many advantages to this approach, it is the future, and we should be proactive and not reactive (by waiting for India to start these programs if they haven't already).

Great thing is that a lot of the development/proof-of-concept can be done just on computers.

 

[JamD]

I once got chance to interact with ACM Sohail Aman during a seminar back in 2018, where I specifically questioned the scope and capacity of PAC to develop a next generation aircraft, considering the fact that we only have experience of joint production of a basic 4th Gen aircraft with China.

His answer was detailed. The portion of his answer which can be shared on public forum was that he has high trust and hope from talent and domestic expertise of Pakistan particularly of PAC. The Azm (NGFA to be more specific) is meant to exceed even contemporary 5th Gen aircrafts in terms of concept. He was very positive about success of the project but he did mention that project might suffer delays upto a decade depending upon circumstances. But project will materialize as it represents the solution to resolve problems which PAF has always faced related to capabilities it has wished to employ. He acknowledged Turkish progression regarding TFX but refused to comment on relationship which TFX shares with Azm. He specified that J31 is not Azm and he himself was not an admirer of J31 (back then there was notion that J31 could be Azm).

As far as I know, the new PAF leadership took major changes in PAF force modernization and indigenization pattern. After Mujahid Anwar took over, Several important people were replaced from important positions and few projects were deliberately put on hold or were stripped down - Economics being a major contributing factor. I believe, both Jf17 and Azm projects are victims of lack of synchronization and commitment of PAF chaging leaderships. Financial restrictions narrows down our option even further.

Some other (more recent) points of reference to add to your interaction.

In an Q/A session earlier this year ACM(R) Sohail Aman was asked about this. He said that we had ventured here and failed. Now we are looking for help from others. He mentioned not being able to develop a seeker.

No. We werent allowed to record. It was at IST.

Thus, PAF would not need to delink and change plans. PAF will reach the planned development it set out to do. Sounds more plausible than PAF having to change plans because they misjudged developmental timelines and did a major amateur blunder...

They kind of did exactly that.

In our session with him, ACM never once mentioned Russia, in relation to AZM. The Turkey part is pretty much what we were told too. He did mention earlier in this decade PAF approached them and were rejected offhand and second time they accepted. This partnership is more recent than one might imagine. He wasnt forthcoming on what exactly would we be doing.
The gist of it regarding AZM was: We over reached but we can still pull it off ......... This is just what i understood, with my very very limited knowledge.

I think all of this more or less confirms what I was speculating earlier about my "feel".

 

[Indos]

A possibly low-hanging fruit for us that should be very seriously pursued. Many many advantages to this approach, it is the future, and we should be proactive and not reactive (by waiting for India to start these programs if they haven't already).

Great thing is that a lot of the development/proof-of-concept can be done just on computers.

How much do you think AZM project will cost ? Just a rough estimation based on your expertise and experience on the industry.

Does any Pakistani official ever talks about the cost of the program ?

 

[JamD]

How much do you think AZM project will cost ? Just a rough estimation based on your expertise and experience on the industry.

Does any Pakistani official ever talks about the cost of the program ?

I have zero idea unfortunately. A downside to being too focused on engineering aspect of things I confess. @Bilal Khan (Quwa) may be in a better position to answer this.

To answer your second question, not that I know of. There might be annual budget amounts in MoDP reports, for which again I will refer you to @Bilal Khan (Quwa).

 

[CriticalThought]

Right, and I was arguing why I disagree with that approach as a principle. Would you like people to judge your integrity based on your subject matter knowledge of a topic of my expertise? I don't think you would. So let's not do to others what you don't want done to you. Let's stick to the topic and discuss the topic's merits and demerits. One does not need several PhDs to have opinions on Azm. If you don't like what someone is saying argue with logic or ignore and move on, but don't use "advanced jargon to call out an uninformed bully" because as a principle it is weak and ripe for misuse.

You are merely turning a blind eye to Deino's bullying and misquoting generic ethical principles to hide the issue. Deino is a bully, and he was rightfully called out by Rafeh in a befitting manner. Small minds are feeling threatened by this and are proving my point about a cartel of mediocres defending their turf. If you don't like highly advanced technical jargon, then ignore the post or even the poster, but don't tell others that it represents some sort of superiority complex. Let people engage in as advanced a discussion as they like.