Unlike HAL, PAC navigates through the projects intelligently. The figure of 10-15 years you just gave out depicts your own experience with LCA. Heck, it is even more modest since LCA took well above 3 decades. That's a life time of a regular fighter aircraft.
Lucky for us, we have 2 different emerging defense partners onboard, Turkey, and China. Both of them are prioritizing 5th generation aircraft design and development. This is something that India has always lacked, strategic partnerships. One of the prime reasons why LCA was reduced to a point defense fighter entering service well into the 2020's. That too while addressing a haphazard economic need to get the money flowing back into the economy while putting the air staff requirements of a credible fighter solution as secondary.
Dont challenge me on this. I know more about Indian AirForce and what happens in HAL more than you. You probably wouldn't even know we sent 2 interns in the Su-30 assembly facility to get us some nice blueprints years ago. So, please, stop glorifying what India is doing to address its needs.
The dilemmas of Indian Air Force and 5th generation requirement.
The Money
Out of US $65.9B (using Feb 1 exchange rate of 71.5 that was marked during the budget announcement), IAF loses $3B straight away with the exchange rate going down to Rs. 75.20 per dollar in today's money.
Pensions take up to 28.4% of the defense budget right away followed by the largest share. defense services that comprise 44.4% of the defense budget, 64.5% goes towards pay alone. The remainder is left for maintenance and is notoriously barely enough to upkeep and get the things running. This is before we get to 24% which goes towards capital expenditures of which let's assume, Air Force gets the largest chunk at 38%. 62% of which (USD $3.76b) goes into aircraft recapitalization. The bulk of this money is used to sustain past projects (also known as committed liabilities) such as Rafales. Interestingly there are reports that the current budget falls short on the committed liabilities in the present day. Once these committed liabilities are paid off, whatever is left might go into paying for a single squadron of fighters each year, which is the LCA Tejas. And this timeline goes up till 2029. Hence I dont see how you Indian fanboys fail to see what really stops GoI, IAF and HAL to progress towards a solution for a defense needs. It is poor management of finances and lots of corruption.
Capability development
IAF needs a credible engine ToT along with a high-performance radar (not the crap like Rajendra or Uttam that are failing tests to detect 4th generation jets). And India does not have a single ally willing it to do it for her.
When South Korea (which, unlike India, is a close US ally) teamed up with US companies to build their new fighter jet, SK was denied some critical technology that they explicitly asked for.... for instance, they ended up getting AESA technology from Saab...
Saab has worked on stealth technology, for instance through the Neuron program. The only thing listed above they cannot deliver on is the engine. However India will not get engine tech no matter what a/c they are buying. Saab is probably the only company that will be allowed to deliver substantial tech transfer on: stealth, AESA radar, avionics, and EW systems. The US companies will simply not be allowed to transfer that technology to India. Of course they can try to offer "dumbed down" versions that are sufficiently primitive to be allowed to be transferred, however, as demonstrated in SK, other options then become more attractive.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia ... t-program/
Russian options are also off the table since IAF pulled out of their program for 'reasons'. Until something really drastic changes, India does not, in any way, have any way forward as we speak to induct a 5th generation fighter before 2035.
Pakistan in the equation
As for the J-31 the development is said to be progressing well and just a few years off from entering service. The odds of Pakistan acquiring are likely good. As it should be affordable and China alone has considerable reason to provide at least a limited number to Pakistan. Which, would tie up Indian Defenses on two FRONTS.
This is the whole conundrum for India. As post 2030 she likely will have to face opposing Stealth Fighters on two fronts. Or better yet, in any case of Indo-Sino war, Chinese J-20/J-31 might aswell be stationed at Qadri/Shorkot/Bholari to blow attacks on India.
Yet, the Indian Air Force has no plan to field a Stealth Fighter of her own in the foreseeable future! (next 20 years). In a nutshell, IAF is on the decline in the next 15 years when it comes to 5th generation capability development.
From MoU to induction, Pakistan's timeline for induction of J-31 is barely 3 years. And we are not in a hurry.
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