Featured Project Azm: Pakistan's Ambitious Quest to Develop 5th Generation Military Technologies.

[HRK]

If Pak could mange "interns" inside Su-30 line, how many such "interns" are inside TAI/TEI/ASELSAN/ROKETSAN etc. facilities???

don't you worry about it we don't spy on our friends and brothers .....

 

[-------]

If Pak could mange "interns" inside Su-30 line, how many such "interns" are inside TAI/TEI/ASELSAN/ROKETSAN etc. facilities???

By the by, TFX will be developed block by block for a reason! It'll start with 4++ gen. Initial objectives are toward perfecting avionics, composite materials, advanced sensors embedded within the "skin", AESA, EW, AI etc...

I don't see this as a problem, Pakistani Aerospace engineers interning at TAI should learn as much as they can and take that knowledge back to Pakistan. In the meantime, Pakistan should start work on the software element of the 5th gen fighter, because that is what will ultimately define 4th from 5th gen and will take the longest to develop - hence the block development of Turkey's 5th gen fighter

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

don't you worry about it we don't spy on our friends and brothers .....

Of course, here "interns" don't mean spies!!!

 

[SQ8]

Unlike HAL, PAC navigates through the projects intelligently. The figure of 10-15 years you just gave out depicts your own experience with LCA. Heck, it is even more modest since LCA took well above 3 decades. That's a life time of a regular fighter aircraft.

Lucky for us, we have 2 different emerging defense partners onboard, Turkey, and China. Both of them are prioritizing 5th generation aircraft design and development. This is something that India has always lacked, strategic partnerships. One of the prime reasons why LCA was reduced to a point defense fighter entering service well into the 2020's. That too while addressing a haphazard economic need to get the money flowing back into the economy while putting the air staff requirements of a credible fighter solution as secondary.

Dont challenge me on this. I know more about Indian AirForce and what happens in HAL more than you. You probably wouldn't even know we sent 2 interns in the Su-30 assembly facility to get us some nice blueprints years ago. So, please, stop glorifying what India is doing to address its needs.




The dilemmas of Indian Air Force and 5th generation requirement.

The Money

Out of US $65.9B (using Feb 1 exchange rate of 71.5 that was marked during the budget announcement), IAF loses $3B straight away with the exchange rate going down to Rs. 75.20 per dollar in today's money.

Pensions take up to 28.4% of the defense budget right away followed by the largest share. defense services that comprise 44.4% of the defense budget, 64.5% goes towards pay alone. The remainder is left for maintenance and is notoriously barely enough to upkeep and get the things running. This is before we get to 24% which goes towards capital expenditures of which let's assume, Air Force gets the largest chunk at 38%. 62% of which (USD $3.76b) goes into aircraft recapitalization. The bulk of this money is used to sustain past projects (also known as committed liabilities) such as Rafales. Interestingly there are reports that the current budget falls short on the committed liabilities in the present day. Once these committed liabilities are paid off, whatever is left might go into paying for a single squadron of fighters each year, which is the LCA Tejas. And this timeline goes up till 2029. Hence I dont see how you Indian fanboys fail to see what really stops GoI, IAF and HAL to progress towards a solution for a defense needs. It is poor management of finances and lots of corruption.

Capability development

IAF needs a credible engine ToT along with a high-performance radar (not the crap like Rajendra or Uttam that are failing tests to detect 4th generation jets). And India does not have a single ally willing it to do it for her.

When South Korea (which, unlike India, is a close US ally) teamed up with US companies to build their new fighter jet, SK was denied some critical technology that they explicitly asked for.... for instance, they ended up getting AESA technology from Saab...

Saab has worked on stealth technology, for instance through the Neuron program. The only thing listed above they cannot deliver on is the engine. However India will not get engine tech no matter what a/c they are buying. Saab is probably the only company that will be allowed to deliver substantial tech transfer on: stealth, AESA radar, avionics, and EW systems. The US companies will simply not be allowed to transfer that technology to India. Of course they can try to offer "dumbed down" versions that are sufficiently primitive to be allowed to be transferred, however, as demonstrated in SK, other options then become more attractive.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia ... t-program/

Russian options are also off the table since IAF pulled out of their program for 'reasons'. Until something really drastic changes, India does not, in any way, have any way forward as we speak to induct a 5th generation fighter before 2035.

Pakistan in the equation

As for the J-31 the development is said to be progressing well and just a few years off from entering service. The odds of Pakistan acquiring are likely good. As it should be affordable and China alone has considerable reason to provide at least a limited number to Pakistan. Which, would tie up Indian Defenses on two FRONTS.

This is the whole conundrum for India. As post 2030 she likely will have to face opposing Stealth Fighters on two fronts. Or better yet, in any case of Indo-Sino war, Chinese J-20/J-31 might aswell be stationed at Qadri/Shorkot/Bholari to blow attacks on India.

Yet, the Indian Air Force has no plan to field a Stealth Fighter of her own in the foreseeable future! (next 20 years). In a nutshell, IAF is on the decline in the next 15 years when it comes to 5th generation capability development.

From MoU to induction, Pakistan's timeline for induction of J-31 is barely 3 years. And we are not in a hurry.

@Dazzler @Knuckles @araz @HRK @Arsalan @Trailer23 @Deino @Jungibaaz

India also has a lot more in terms of commercial electronic component industry with dual use items which we have been getting regular shipments of for the longest time.
These shipments have at many times included military specific items as well due to loose security and corrupt officials on their end.

Back in 2010 we were comparing their attempt at a SDR with a physical example of their board with the Chinese, ours, R&S and Harris.
They did have an innovative idea which we layer realized was an Israeli concept which we adopted but the quality of their build was essentially pathetic and similar to the Chinese.

As a matter of pride, the system we use today and developed in house is better in performance to all of the above including the Harris one.

This is also the time when my colleague was given the Mil-spec on Link-16 and Link-22 to start reading up on it and work on a development with AWC.

Finally, the current ambassador of Saudi Arabia in one of his former roles outlined the philosophy you talk of in one sentence “Pakistan only builds what it cannot procure” - we don’t have bottomless wallets or national pride as our primary motivation. It is to ensure that the enemy is defeated by any means necessary ; if that means buying the Nodong and repainting it to call it the Ghauri.. so be it.

Of course, here "interns" don't mean spies!!!

There may “interns” from other countries inside TAI or ASELSAN who may be doing similar roles.

 

[Asian.Century]

Why Chinese buy Su 35s when China has J-20 Stealth jets, see the video to get an answer:

 

[TheDarkKnight]

If Pak could mange "interns" inside Su-30 line, how many such "interns (meaning folks known to the Turkish establishment)" are inside TAI/TEI/ASELSAN/ROKETSAN etc. facilities???

By the by, TFX will be developed block by block for a reason! It'll start with 4++ gen. Initial objectives are toward perfecting avionics, composite materials, advanced sensors embedded within the "skin", AESA, EW, AI etc...

Hypothetically I imagine Pak spies in Turk facilities would be a huge disappointment for Turks. All they would say is “brother why didn’t you just ask?”

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Hypothetically I imagine Pak spies in Turk facilities would be a huge disappointment for Turks. All they would say is “brother why didn’t you just ask?”

I have already made it clear: I am not talking about spies...

 

[Armchair]

India also has a lot more in terms of commercial electronic component industry with dual use items which we have been getting regular shipments of for the longest time.
These shipments have at many times included military specific items as well due to loose security and corrupt officials on their end.

Back in 2010 we were comparing their attempt at a SDR with a physical example of their board with the Chinese, ours, R&S and Harris.
They did have an innovative idea which we layer realized was an Israeli concept which we adopted but the quality of their build was essentially pathetic and similar to the Chinese.

As a matter of pride, the system we use today and developed in house is better in performance to all of the above including the Harris one.

This is also the time when my colleague was given the Mil-spec on Link-16 and Link-22 to start reading up on it and work on a development with AWC.

Finally, the current ambassador of Saudi Arabia in one of his former roles outlined the philosophy you talk of in one sentence “Pakistan only builds what it cannot procure” - we don’t have bottomless wallets or national pride as our primary motivation. It is to ensure that the enemy is defeated by any means necessary ; if that means buying the Nodong and repainting it to call it the Ghauri.. so be it.


There may “interns” from other countries inside TAI or ASELSAN who may be doing similar roles.

So, if Pak has a better product, why can't Pak export it and make some money?

 

[SQ8]

So, if Pak has a better product, why can't Pak export it and make some money?

We cannot scale production due to lack of infra along with suitable investors.
I know 8 families in Pk whose wealth(declared +undeclared) easily exceeds $400 million from businesses in Pakistan but have it invested overseas.

 

[Cookie Monster]

We cannot scale production due to lack of infra along with suitable investors.
I know 8 families in Pk whose wealth(declared +undeclared) easily exceeds $400 million from businesses in Pakistan but have it invested overseas.

Why not demonstrate that SDR to friendly countries like Turkey, UAE, and others...try to secure a large enough order...with orders in the pipeline(and profits to be made) investors would come running. Sure it's not ideal...bcuz it would add a significant time to the delivery of the product...but it's better than nothing.

 

[Armchair]

We cannot scale production due to lack of infra along with suitable investors.
I know 8 families in Pk whose wealth(declared +undeclared) easily exceeds $400 million from businesses in Pakistan but have it invested overseas.

How much money would this need? Can we not make a case for it - I've worked in Venture Capital and while its not easy, there are ways to raise money. Particularly if you can get the backing (not ownership) of the government.

 

[SQ8]

How much money would this need? Can we not make a case for it - I've worked in Venture Capital and while its not easy, there are ways to raise money. Particularly if you can get the backing (not ownership) of the government.

Ideally the business case needs to be solid and have a pragmatic view of which markets we would really be competitive.

I have seen too much focus on a basic payback schedule for projects with no consideration for RoI only and not matching that with a IRR or other methods.

Even with subsidies and other support, we would need to understand the right VARs to work with along with and be able to offer support.

 

[Armchair]

Ideally the business case needs to be solid and have a pragmatic view of which markets we would really be competitive.

I have seen too much focus on a basic payback schedule for projects with no consideration for RoI only and not matching that with a IRR or other methods.

Even with subsidies and other support, we would need to understand the right VARs to work with along with and be able to offer support.

I can help you with you write a business plan or make a presentation. I teach BBA and MBA students and used to be Financial Analyst in the US.

 

[Armchair]

Could Tungsten carbide be useful for Azm's or JFT's engine manufacture? Seems a relatively cheaper and simpler way to get reasonable heat resistance and wear resistance:

 

[Sidacca]

How much money would this need? Can we not make a case for it - I've worked in Venture Capital and while its not easy, there are ways to raise money. Particularly if you can get the backing (not ownership) of the government.

Sorry for being off topic, you have mentioned that you have worked with venture capital.... Can you please PM me I need to discuss something with you. Thank you

I can help you with you write a business plan or make a presentation. I teach BBA and MBA students and used to be Financial Analyst in the US.

But in business plan and investor's presentation you have to explain everything from executive summary to SWOT analysis which is not possible in military scenario due confidentiality.