Featured Project Azm: Pakistan's Ambitious Quest to Develop 5th Generation Military Technologies.

[StormBreaker]

Unlike HAL, PAC navigates through the projects intelligently. The figure of 10-15 years you just gave out depicts your own experience with LCA. Heck, it is even more modest since LCA took well above 3 decades. That's a life time of a regular fighter aircraft.

Lucky for us, we have 2 different emerging defense partners onboard, Turkey, and China. Both of them are prioritizing 5th generation aircraft design and development. This is something that India has always lacked, strategic partnerships. One of the prime reasons why LCA was reduced to a point defense fighter entering service well into the 2020's. That too while addressing a haphazard economic need to get the money flowing back into the economy while putting the air staff requirements of a credible fighter solution as secondary.

Dont challenge me on this. I know more about Indian AirForce and what happens in HAL more than you. You probably wouldn't even know we sent 2 interns in the Su-30 assembly facility to get us some nice blueprints years ago. So, please, stop glorifying what India is doing to address its needs.




The dilemmas of Indian Air Force and 5th generation requirement.

The Money

Out of US $65.9B (using Feb 1 exchange rate of 71.5 that was marked during the budget announcement), IAF loses $3B straight away with the exchange rate going down to Rs. 75.20 per dollar in today's money.

Pensions take up to 28.4% of the defense budget right away followed by the largest share. defense services that comprise 44.4% of the defense budget, 64.5% goes towards pay alone. The remainder is left for maintenance and is notoriously barely enough to upkeep and get the things running. This is before we get to 24% which goes towards capital expenditures of which let's assume, Air Force gets the largest chunk at 38%. 62% of which (USD $3.76b) goes into aircraft recapitalization. The bulk of this money is used to sustain past projects (also known as committed liabilities) such as Rafales. Interestingly there are reports that the current budget falls short on the committed liabilities in the present day. Once these committed liabilities are paid off, whatever is left might go into paying for a single squadron of fighters each year, which is the LCA Tejas. And this timeline goes up till 2029. Hence I dont see how you Indian fanboys fail to see what really stops GoI, IAF and HAL to progress towards a solution for a defense needs. It is poor management of finances and lots of corruption.

Capability development

IAF needs a credible engine ToT along with a high-performance radar (not the crap like Rajendra or Uttam that are failing tests to detect 4th generation jets). And India does not have a single ally willing it to do it for her.

When South Korea (which, unlike India, is a close US ally) teamed up with US companies to build their new fighter jet, SK was denied some critical technology that they explicitly asked for.... for instance, they ended up getting AESA technology from Saab...

Saab has worked on stealth technology, for instance through the Neuron program. The only thing listed above they cannot deliver on is the engine. However India will not get engine tech no matter what a/c they are buying. Saab is probably the only company that will be allowed to deliver substantial tech transfer on: stealth, AESA radar, avionics, and EW systems. The US companies will simply not be allowed to transfer that technology to India. Of course they can try to offer "dumbed down" versions that are sufficiently primitive to be allowed to be transferred, however, as demonstrated in SK, other options then become more attractive.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia ... t-program/

Russian options are also off the table since IAF pulled out of their program for 'reasons'. Until something really drastic changes, India does not, in any way, have any way forward as we speak to induct a 5th generation fighter before 2035.

Pakistan in the equation

As for the J-31 the development is said to be progressing well and just a few years off from entering service. The odds of Pakistan acquiring are likely good. As it should be affordable and China alone has considerable reason to provide at least a limited number to Pakistan. Which, would tie up Indian Defenses on two FRONTS.

This is the whole conundrum for India. As post 2030 she likely will have to face opposing Stealth Fighters on two fronts. Or better yet, in any case of Indo-Sino war, Chinese J-20/J-31 might aswell be stationed at Qadri/Shorkot/Bholari to blow attacks on India.

Yet, the Indian Air Force has no plan to field a Stealth Fighter of her own in the foreseeable future! (next 20 years). In a nutshell, IAF is on the decline in the next 15 years when it comes to 5th generation capability development.

From MoU to induction, Pakistan's timeline for induction of J-31 is barely 3 years. And we are not in a hurry.

@Dazzler @Knuckles @araz @HRK @Arsalan @Trailer23 @Deino @Jungibaaz

Wait, are we getting J-31 ?

 

[Deino]

Thanks. There are a few engine options now (unlike during the JF-17 development program). There is the WS-19 and the WS-15. You could have two of the first or a single WS-15. The latter is the more mature engine, I'd think, given its going into the J-20. Hui Tong on his site notes:
"The latest rumor (September 2019) claimed that J-20 (J-20B?) was ready to test the newly integrated WS-15 turbofan engine."

But I don't think that China would give its crown-jewel in engine technology for an export fighter. Even more if you look how long it took to adapt the proven WS-10 for the J-10, I don't expect a single-engine certified WS-15 anytime soon.

 

[Scorpiooo]

Exactly on point and even more my concerns. I cannot think that yet another fifth generation type by CAC could be developed and founded by Pakistan alone, when China has the FC-31 or as it seems J-35 in the making.
But again, we'll see.

Then what's you opinion , if PAF continue to work on CAC instead moving to SAC, can AZM can be smaller variation J20 in medium catgory or something else

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Exactly on point and even more my concerns. I cannot think that yet another fifth generation type by CAC could be developed and founded by Pakistan alone, when China has the FC-31 or as it seems J-35 in the making.
But again, we'll see.

The PAF CAS said 3 things:

“We hope it will be a twin-engine single-seater, boasting the likes of super cruise and laser weapons”. He also noted that the service would not rule out developing the aircraft as part of a collaborative effort with allied countries.
However, he admitted, “Realistically, I don’t believe the aircraft will be operational with the PAF for another decade,” adding that “it will, of course, have to be ITAR free because Pakistan has suffered so many times in the past from US-led sanctions”. (Jane's | May 2019)
​

What the PAF is asking for, basically, is a consortium/partnership that will let the Pakistani industry contribute a sizable % of the total work-share (i.e., support Kamra Aviation City).

Besides that, the fighter design just needs to be twin-engine and ITAR-free.

The Turks are all-good on the workshare front. But that's their best carrot because, otherwise, the TF-X is arguably the riskier bet, especially when it requires an indigenous F110-sized engine. But the prototype will use the GE F110, so it isn't ITAR free (yet).

The Chinese are all-good on the ITAR-free fighter (FC-31), but are they going to open up the supply chain of the J-35 to Pakistan? This is incredibly unlikely. Even if the Chinese are OK with it from a business standpoint, the PLAAF and PLAN aren't going to support it from a security perspective.

Now, the Chinese might compromise.

They can say, "look, we can't distribute our J-35 supply chain across borders, but we will loop Pakistan into our commercial airliner supply chain." In fact, in this case, they can even offer to buy 50-100% back (equivalent of FC-31 purchases) from Pakistan over 20-30 years (not unrealistic given the needs of China's airliner market).

 

[Deino]

Then what's you opinion , if PAF continue to work on CAC instead moving to SAC, can AZM can be smaller variation J20 in medium catgory or something else

No, IMO it is really much too early to know. I see only the following options and would not like to look into engine&configuration combinations, how likely they are and then come to any conclusion, but I will try my best to summary what options I see:

1. SAC with a FC-31 based design .. indeed IMO the most realistic option in terms of progress and as such with the biggest chance of being finalised. On the other side I don't know if it fits the PAF's requirements and as you noted it would leave CAC in favour of a new partner.

2. the often mentioned Turkish way: IMO completely impossible ... Turkey will fail with the TFX and even more it would be a type in the league of the Raptor, IMO plain overkill.

3. CAC with a clean sheet design: IMO a smaller J-20 is unlikely if not impossible. It would be de fact a new aircraft and regardless if it would be a twin-engined Bonsai-J-20-look alike or a new single engined type I highly doubt that Pakistan can found it on its own.

4. go all alone ... IMO unlikely since Pakistan has not that progressed to stem such a project alone.

So, these are my four cents.

 

[Scorpiooo]

No, IMO it is really much too early to know. I see only the following options and would not like to look into engine&configuration combinations, how likely they are and then come to any conclusion, but I will try my best to summary what options I see:

1. SAC with a FC-31 based design .. indeed IMO the most realistic option in terms of progress and as such with the biggest chance of being finalised. On the other side I don't know if it fits the PAF's requirements and as you noted it would leave CAC in favour of a new partner.

2. the often mentioned Turkish way: IMO completely impossible ... Turkey will fail with the TFX and even more it would be a type in the league of the Raptor, IMO plain overkill.

3. CAC with a clean sheet design: IMO a smaller J-20 is unlikely if not impossible. It would be de fact a new aircraft and regardless if it would be a twin-engined Bonsai-J-20-look alike or a new single engined type I highly doubt that Pakistan can found it on its own.

4. go all alone ... IMO unlikely since Pakistan has not that progressed to stem such a project alone.

So, these are my four cents.

Thanks sir for you input, as per i see from ur analysis most physible or practicle approach for PAF to go with SAC , have some thing based on J31/J35 family with customisation to fit basic requirements of PAF. Then prove in later in block structure like thandard program

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

No, IMO it is really much too early to know. I see only the following options and would not like to look into engine&configuration combinations, how likely they are and then come to any conclusion, but I will try my best to summary what options I see:

1. SAC with a FC-31 based design .. indeed IMO the most realistic option in terms of progress and as such with the biggest chance of being finalised. On the other side I don't know if it fits the PAF's requirements and as you noted it would leave CAC in favour of a new partner.

2. the often mentioned Turkish way: IMO completely impossible ... Turkey will fail with the TFX and even more it would be a type in the league of the Raptor, IMO plain overkill.

3. CAC with a clean sheet design: IMO a smaller J-20 is unlikely if not impossible. It would be de fact a new aircraft and regardless if it would be a twin-engined Bonsai-J-20-look alike or a new single engined type I highly doubt that Pakistan can found it on its own.

4. go all alone ... IMO unlikely since Pakistan has not that progressed to stem such a project alone.

So, these are my four cents.

Not a popular view, but...I think the PAF may also consider buying a late 4.5 gen fighter in numbers instead (e.g., J-10CE), and much later, add a FGFA for specialized roles (e.g., strike).

 

[LKJ86]

I cannot think that yet another fifth generation type by CAC could be developed and founded by Pakistan alone, when China has the FC-31 or as it seems J-35 in the making.

But I don't think CAC would abandon the export market of 5th-generation fighters.
J-20 or a new one with a single engine for export in the future is possible to CAC.

 

[Scorpiooo]

Not a popular view, but...I think the PAF may also consider buying a late 4.5 gen fighter in numbers instead (e.g., J-10CE), and much later, add a FGFA for specialized roles (e.g., strike).

Sir you mean PAF can skip AZM at all ?

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Sir you mean PAF can skip AZM at all ?

No. Rather, AZM won't be a mainstay fighter until much later (2040/2050s), so through the 2020s and 2030s the PAF would actually acquire a 4.5+ gen jet in large numbers to replace the F-16s and old JF-17s.

 

[Scorpiooo]

But I don't think CAC would abandon the export market of 5th-generation fighters.
J-20 or a new one with a single engine for export in the future is possible to CAC.

As @Deino said sticking with CAC mean clean sheet design which will be financially and timelines wise non practicle for PAF/PAC then other option will be mini J20 with few alternations as per requirements , so do you count on it ?

 

[zhxy]

China's defense budget: >170 billion USD.
China can invest $ 100 billion to develop similar F-35 fighters

 

[Scorpiooo]

No. Rather, AZM won't be a mainstay fighter until much later (2040/2050s), so through the 2020s and 2030s the PAF would actually acquire a 4.5+ gen jet in large numbers to replace the F-16s and old JF-17s.

But what if IAF goes for 5th gen procurement in coming years

China's defense budget: >170 billion USD.
China can invest $ 100 billion to develop similar F-35 fighters

Agree but PAF cant

 

[Deino]

China's defense budget: >170 billion USD.
China can invest $ 100 billion to develop similar F-35 fighters

Oh come on ... and why should China invest that amount of money - in fact by your own calculation more than 55% of its budget to develop a fighter only for export!? What about its other assets.

 

[LKJ86]

As @Deino said sticking with CAC mean clean sheet design which will be financially and timelines wise non practicle for PAF/PAC then other option will be mini J20 with few alternations as per requirements , so do you count on it ?

It is just based on the progress of 6th-generation fighters of USA and China.
If everything goes well, CAC would export J-20 in the near future.