Happy 4th
@Meengla
I’ve taken a few weeks off from posting on this forum, taken a much desired vacation (to drive down the PCH) and reflect on Pakistan. Call it a midlife crisis or just being a Pakistani-American during this inflection point, that has been active on this and previous versions of this forum for over 20 years and has decided listen more then speak.
I rewatched many videos, particularly the “Pakistan Experience” interview with Atif Mian (#204), and read some books, tried to see it from all sides.
I have come to a few conclusions and they most if not all seem to align with what you have been saying for all these years, if I properly grasp what you have been espousing.
I have come to agree that in the upcoming election, is it not in the best interest of the nation that IK returns as prime minister or even president, PTI needs reform. I still think SMQ could make a useful PM to service the national interests soon enough.
Although, I do think IK is still
vital in ending the
political polarization in the nation, so that his party returns to parliament and fully participates, and the nation can show itself internationally as a stable country, politically and economically. At the same time I think a large portion of the nation also does not want a member of the Sharif or Zardari family to hold the top jobs (Prime minister or President) either. This is based on economics first and foremost, as shown by their recent unimaginative budget.
But considering they were able to arrange the IMF bailout, promises were probably made and we will see either Bilawal and/or a member of the Sharif family hold the top posts once more. If it must be so, then so be it. In the grand scheme of things, they are actually just figureheads. But if they are to be able to govern, the people will have to genuinely want to allow them to do so, domestically and in the diaspora. For this IK is needed, to give his acquiescence to the new social contract and not getting a chance to being re-elected.
Thinking about how IK rise to have a realistic chance in 2013 and eventually win the election in 2018; it was just another shortcut that got out of hand for “them”. Many of us bought it, because we thought “they” would carry out reforms. Support for IK, at this point should be seen as the public still wanted to see those reforms being made.
This brings me to my first epiphany.
The nation needs a new social contract if there is any hope of stability, regain our financial independence (through ending the circular debt) in the world and for people to be willing to pay their taxes. The shortsightedness and elite games is about maximizing the individual benefits (in an extractive nature) of most members of the elite without figuring out what it actually takes to run a successful economy. Everyone, PTI included, wanted shortcut solutions handed to them on a silver platter. The nation needs long term planning that reassures primarily the elite that if they pay property taxes the money won’t be embezzled or squandered. If property taxes paid for a large enough portion of the backlog of nearly $80 billion in loans due over the next 3 years and infrastructure upon which we need to become competitive to grow export, then the elite will need to know their sacrifice will be rewarded.
The country and the elite are also not as rich as many make them out to be. They too need clarity, particularly because they operated within the rules, for decades. It’s not fair to “nationalize” their wealth. If they are to give up “elite capture”, they need to know the pie will actually grow.
My second epiphany came when I heard Biden say the Taliban are helping America, in effective defacto recognizing the Talibs. What I realized was that
Pakistan needs to move quickly, while Biden is still in office and the Russo-Ukraine war is continuing, to get that railway to Central Asia built, so Pakistan can regain some geo-strategic relevance, as we can not afford to fully lose our relevance in the US.
Being the land route and port for the west into Central Asia would give us some of that. Allowing India to move
some goods to and from Central Asia is this route would give us more, as western investors into India and India itself would support some of our other economic interests if we did this, (
creating the conditions to have a chance to try to catch up to India on a per capita basis over the next 25 years, because we will then be able to attract probably 2-3% of GDP annually in FDI for decades to come from non-Pakistanis in the gulf and west, and we need this to generate the taxes to provide social services), as it would it not go through Kashmir. A second rail route from Karachi to Gwadar and up to reko-diq would connect to the Iranian rail network and would allow India to ship to Europe via Pakistan, and would also give Gwadar a competitive edge (against Chabahar or even some Indian ports).
The US would therefore also not hassle us too much if we used these two rail routes are build and used to ship goods to and from China. If India is to become the strategic partner with the U.S., Pakistan needs to really make itself a strategic economic and technology partner with China, but in a way that allows Pakistan to maximize exports to the world, not just China.
This rail route is
crucial if we are to forge an economic road map where we
integrate ourselves into Chinese supply chains. Our cheaper labor and location between China and raw materials as well as many growing markets needs to be focused upon.
We need technology transfers via joint ventures for the domestic market and exports to the world and even China, and it is also in China’s interest if Pakistan’s economy and purchasing power grows and can absorb more Chinese exports for goods and services. It will also bode well for China’s BRI ambitious getting back on track. Lessons from Pakistan’s political reforms, dealing with Afghanistan and Chinese investment could be useful lessons in other BRI countries, particularly in Africa.
Also, President Xi is probably more open to supporting Pakistan if it makes reforms because of China’s strategic economic and security ambitions. Pakistan needs to seize this moment. With China’s help, Pakistan can cement long term transit trade and mining processing agreements with the Afghans.
Joint ventures by Chinese firms with large Pakistani companies but also small and medium enterprises in Pakistan, in the fields of Agricultural modernization, solar power, batteries, pharmaceuticals, EV/Hybrids (hybrids in case the grid goes down because we are prioritizing electricity to industry), rail and public transport infrastructure, and IT/support services for Chinese firms in global markets should be focused upon.
Our agricultural exports to China as well as the Middle East can be a foundation for a stable economy as well as a way to draw investment and constantly increase productivity, especially as investment in water management can grow arable land 50% with a half dozen more major dams and more canals.
These technology and business/management practices need to be in a way to
LEAPFROG Indian companies so we can achieve faster growth than India and become a more attractive investment market for the world.
Stability and the right long term regulations are key for
small and medium enterprises to invest in Pakistan with capital and talent, and be better able to compete and employ more people than SOEs.
It’s the way Poland copied Germany’s Mittlestand and prevented the rise of oligarchs, (even grew through the 2008 global crisis) in the post communist era, unlike Ukraine. It’s also a way for people to go abroad and learn skills and have the right incentives to bring them back.
But it brings me to the third epiphany. If there is no place for IK in the political landscape,
implement most if not all of party’s platform and allow him to retire from politics. Have him go around the diaspora try to motivate people to invest in Pakistan. Allow him to be part of the solution and no longer a thorn in mending the fissures all sides have created over the past few decades. In fact, have all the parties reform over the next 5 years to hire and promote
competent administrators. Let the rich focus on economics and let skilled democratically elected administrators run the country and increase social services year on year.
Our elite need to focus on invest, including in our nation’s soft power, including cultural products (film industry), tourism industry based on our thousands of years of history, and spread our cuisine globally like the Thais. (Pakistan needs its best restaurant in the Roosevelt hotel in midtown New York and next to Grand Central, to show case our culture through food and uniforms, etc.)
Do this all before the elections, and then people won’t really care who wins the election, because all the consequential changes will have been made.
P.S. just so anyone reading understands, It’s not that I don’t want a PTI government back in office, but we have to look at achieving the national interests and achieving long term reforms via a new social contract.
Second P.S. if these reforms can be made, all the different sections of the population will be able to forgive the politicians and “them” and allow everyone to move past all of this and focus on development (such as training our people to serve locally or be skilled enough to go abroad and earn send remittances and gain cutting edge knowledge and invest in Pakistan) and unity, so that in a generation, when our population will be equal to the US population and India’s demographic dividend will have ended, Pakistan will be able to have its moment, akin to what India is de to have for the next 20 years.
3rd P.S. it won’t be made if after these reforms and a couple years of stabilizing the economy with higher taxes, the country gives back and spend money on building museums to say it is the nation that is the descendants of the Indus Valley civilization, prior to the Aryan invasion and Bronze Age collapse in 1300 BCE, and the people had a way of life before the Hindu religion, then had various religions including what is understood as Hinduism, then Buddhism in many areas, then mostly Islam.
Setting the narrative arch right. On the global stage playing up our region’s Sufi way of peaceful co-existence and great contributions under the Mughals should also be emphasized, not ignored because not everyone was a Sufi or a Mughal. To also say Pakistan is the inheritor of a civilization.
