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TREAD! Pakistan-Iran fencing?
Why fencing
#Iran border w/ Pakistan is a big challenge for Islamabad, not due to money but for the following reason—I am delineating below:
There are 4 issues related but distinct....
1/
1. Narco route
2. ’s grey economy
3. Human trafficking
4. Border economy
I ll address narco issue first:
Illicit drug trade originates from
#Afghanistan; is worth up 2 $70B yearly in
#UK streets; up to $3 bill is invested back in region rest end up in western banks. 2/
Porous border is used 4 narco logistics/route.
Drugs cartel funds terrorism, & warlordism & mafias in border regions of , & ; they have influence in weak state like & desperate elements in structures in Iran who do not want stringent border between & .
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Second issue is ’s oil economy greased up 2 $300 mills by smuggling into & via border.
Hence it preempts 2 see efforts 4 unfrequented routes sealed by .
was very opposed to fencing last time when it was raised, despite has no border dispute w/ .
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Third issue is human trafficking: traffickers use the border to traffic immigrants into
#Iran,
#Turkey en-route 2
#Europe and vice versa.
They control billions of dollars illicit industry & disincentives 4 local elders benefiting from this economy to accept fencing.
5/
Then there is a small border economy due to trade on both sides of the border along this remote region.
Locals have no access to basic facilities & can not find day 2 day items coming from areas/regions as far a field (i,e, up to 300km away).
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W/ the above context, these issues are cause 4 concern 4 Pakistan:
a. reaction of
#Iranian state
b. response of narco mafia
c. reaction of local community
d. effects on local market & livelihood
e. fate of grey economy.
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But strong logic also exits 4 Pakistan 2 fence the border:
(i) threat of separatists hiding across border
(ii)
#RAW’s presence in Chabahar using smugglers 2 destabilise
#Balochistan
(iii) no state worth salt functions w/ open borders ....
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(iv) huge cost to man security of 44 % of Pakistan ( eg, Balochistan) w/ its 900km open border w/ Iran.
&
(v)
#CPEC makes fencing even more urgent 4 its security.
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In wake of latest sad tragedy of 6 soldiers martyred this week near Iran border,
#COAS Qamar Bajwa spoke 2 his Iranian counter part & Govt agreed 2 fund fencing border.
Challenges apart, can no longer afford open border w/ Iran after almost fencing 70% w/ . End
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