I had a detailed discussion with some people in Pak today. Although I don't agree with them, but want to share what's going on in the minds of powerful institutions, including SC and establishment as per them (actually these are the two left so I shouldn't use the word "including").
The assessment is that
1 - Sharifs still enjoy a massive public support in Pakistan, specially in Punjab. The support, although received a big dent due to Panama case decision, is not enough to prevent them from winning the next general elections again. It is not just public support, but as
@Realistic Change has mentioned many times, our bureaucracy is extremely corrupt and will do whatever to get clear majority in next GEs. Next year is the year of Senate elections as well and if Sharifs/ PMLN are able to get majority in Senate first, and then in National Assembly, there is no way to stop them except Martial Law.
2 - Any action against them, whether by judiciary or any other institution, will be so beneficial for them that it will only add to their vote bank. Unfortunately, Sharifs know how and when to play the victim's card very well. So if they were put on ECL and eventually arrested before leaving Pakistan, it would have returned to them that little public support that they lost during Panama hearing. We have criticized judges on some remarks that seems to be favoring Sharifs might be part of the plan.
3 - Any action against them could have brought a large number of people on the streets as well. These protests could be very deadly and eventually, a Martial Law would have been required to control the situation.
4 - There is a hope, (although little, but the only hope left) is to let them runaway unscathed, and push the perception of powerful mafia that controls judiciary as well, so that their victims card effect can be reversed somehow. No one hates Sharifs more than the 5 judges who were on Panama bench, and expecting them to give relief to Sharifs is just not right. But to build the perception that Sharifs control the judiciary will negate what they have been constantly throwing towards public... that judiciary was biased against them.
5 - There is one more hope, that the party will weaken over the period of time. Sharifs control over the party will also be weakened, and will eventually lead to divisions in the party as
@Realistic Change has stated. So rather than execution, it is believed that party will die its natural death in the absence of Sharif family.
6 - All efforts will be made to prevent Sharifs from coming back again. These include the appropriate orders to be passed in absentia. One thing we must remember, although there is a risk of cases becoming dormant in the absence of accused, but if judges reach to the conclusion that Sharifs are purposely avoiding court proceedings without any legit reason, courts may pass appropriate orders of issuing non bailable warrants. This means that they will be arrested upon return.
7 - Some political parties heads are also aware of all this and hence letting all of it happen.
Sharifs want some action, but some members of the family don't want the same gloomy days to occur again in first couple of years of Musharraf. Maryam is one of them. One of the best strategies of Sharifs (specially Nawaz Sharif) would be to remain in Pakistan, face the trials and go to jail. Maryam didn't let this happen as it is very difficult for her to accept the fact that her father in his 70s face the same conditions, which he faced 17-18 years back.
However, due to continuous discussions on costs and benefits, Nawaz Sharif may decide to comeback and face the trial. It will be his decision and no one knows what he will decide in future.
But yes, in my opinion, the chances of Nawaz Sharif coming back soon are extremely distant. This case has died and I don't want to live in a fools paradise to believe that NS will face a jail term, or his London properties will be eventually sold to get the looted money back to Pakistan..
It's dead guys.. lets accept it and move on..
