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Pakistan's Population Growth: Problem Or Opportunity?

When you are old, frail and sick, who would take care of your needs if you have a declining population of young people?

Who will put money in the pension plans for retirees to keep them going if you do not have several young workers putting money into it for each retiree?

In the US, there are currently 2.8 workers for each Social Security beneficiary. By 2033, there will be 2.1 workers for each beneficiary. And US TFR of 2.01 is just slightly below replacement level of 2.1. Imagine what would happen if it continues to drop to levels of significant lower TFRs of China (1.55), Hong Kong (1.17), Taiwan (1.11) and Singapore (0.8)?

Should have setup a retirement fund when you weren't old, frail and sick.

I don't believe in pension plans etc....I believe in a free society, a free market, I'm a libertarian.

Donating is not a sustainable thing. If you can't sustain yourself, that is only your problem, not anyone elses.
 
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Should have setup a retirement fund when you weren't old, frail and sick.

I don't believe in pension plans etc....I believe in a free society, a free market, I'm a libertarian.

Donating is not a sustainable thing. If you can't sustain yourself, that is only your problem, not anyone elses.

Honestly, I don't think you understand the subject to have a useful conversation.

You need to read up on how societies really work, not how Libertarians wished they worked.
 
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Overzealous Pakistani birth control advocates need to understand what countries with sub-replacement fertility rates are now seeing: Low birth rates lead to diminished economic growth. "Fewer kids mean fewer tax-paying workers to support public pension programs. An older society, noted the late Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker, is less dynamic, creative and entrepreneurial."
In Pakistan case it is not correct. Pakistan is facing a population explosion and has to reduce its population growth, of course not to the extent of going into extinction. Pakistan for next decade or so has to bring down its birth rate to 1.8 or so. This will bring population closer to its resources. Right now a birth rate of >3 is a drain on country's resources. Tax consideration is an assumption, before making this assumption it is important to know how many people out of population of 200 million is paying taxes.

Pakistan's problems are because of its population explosion, over population crowds cities, creates joblessness and breeds crimes. This is exactly what is happening in Pakistan.
 
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Honestly, I don't think you understand the subject to have a useful conversation.

You need to read up on how societies really work, not how Libertarians wished they worked.

Funny that's coming from you..........
 
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In Pakistan case it is not correct. Pakistan is facing a population explosion and has to reduce its population growth, of course not to the extent of going into extinction. Pakistan for next decade or so has to bring down its birth rate to 1.8 or so. This will bring population closer to its resources. Right now a birth rate of >3 is a drain on country's resources. Tax consideration is an assumption, before making this assumption it is important to know how many people out of population of 200 million is paying taxes.

Pakistan's problems are because of its population explosion, over population crowds cities, creates joblessness and breeds crimes. This is exactly what is happening in Pakistan.

Do you really understand your own data? What does it really mean? Where did you get figures of >3 and 1.8? What do these figures mean? Are these percentages? Or fertility rates? Please have some clarity.
 
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Do you really understand your own data? What does it really mean? Where did you get figures of >3 and 1.8? What do these figures mean? Are these percentages? Or fertility rates? Please have some clarity.
It is the internationally understandable figure of birth rate. According to UN related organisations Pakistan's population will double in over a decade. Just imagine what will happen then.
 
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Pakistani women's fertility rates have declined significantly from about 4.56 in 2000 to 2.86 babies per woman in 2014, a drop of 37% in 14 years. In percentage terms, Pakistan population growth rate has come down from 2.3% in 2000 to 1.6% in 2014, a decline of about 30%. It is being driven drown by the same forces that have worked in the developed world in the last century: increasing urbanization, growing incomes, greater participation in the workforce and rising education. Pakistan now ranks 65among 108 countries with TFR of 2.1 (replacement rate) or higher.

TFR%2BPakistan.png



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Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Growing Population: Blessing or Curse?
 
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It is the internationally understandable figure of birth rate. According to UN related organisations Pakistan's population will double in over a decade. Just imagine what will happen then.

It has already begun. The consequences of overpopulation in Pakistan are not positive in any way the OP claims. Shortages of water and other resources are going to grow worse in the next few years to strain the already crumbling social order even further.
 
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Animals have been created by nature to reproduce, except humans. I have my reasons to state that which I would refrain from discussing here.

All the animals are slowly going towards extinction. Humans is the only specie which is multiplying like hell. this is causing an ecological imbalance. FMCGs want the population to continue growing so that their products keep mustering as much profit as those can. A prudent look into the situation indicates that prices of staple food is increasing because the raw material is now being used for value added products.

It is time for individuals to think what will happen when all the agricultural land is consumed by humans for living. All the water sources are finished, it would not be beyond comprehension that people will cut each others throat. Before that happens it is better to reduce the population and let FMCGs to suffer rather then call for Apocalypse ourselves.
 
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Animals have been created by nature to reproduce, except humans. I have my reasons to state that which I would refrain from discussing here.

All the animals are slowly going towards extinction. Humans is the only specie which is multiplying like hell. this is causing an ecological imbalance. FMCGs want the population to continue growing so that their products keep mustering as much profit as those can. A prudent look into the situation indicates that prices of staple food is increasing because the raw material is now being used for value added products.

It is time for individuals to think what will happen when all the agricultural land is consumed by humans for living. All the water sources are finished, it would not be beyond comprehension that people will cut each others throat. Before that happens it is better to reduce the population and let FMCGs to suffer rather then call for Apocalypse ourselves.

Except humans? The desire to procreate is just as fundamental to human existence as it is to all other species. It is also important to keep in mind that over 99% of the species that ever existed went extinct of natural causes, not due to MNGs. Agricultural output is nowhere being maxed out, but it will take extensive investment to get there.
 
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a problem...because education far far below our priority list
 
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Till the population growth is brought into control, economic impact will not be felt. An interesting discussion.
 
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This is very unwise. Pakistan is already experiencing many problems due to population growth. There are number of factors but the country has a limited sources. I did a water availability chart some time ago. Please see below:

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You see we are already water scarce country and growing population is not going to help with this problem. It will only make it worse. So Pakistan has power shortage and eminent water shortage. The third problem would be food shortage. Forget about the old people as there won't be many left if food and water is not available.
 
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Here is a good article on whether the rising number of youth is a blessing or curse for Pakistan:

Troubled youth - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

Troubled youth
NAWEEN A. MANGI — PUBLISHED about 20 hours ago

SINDH is home to a large youth population that is utterly frustrated, bitter and angry. They are also an incredible social, economic and psychological burden for their struggling families and impoverished communities.

The tale is similar all across rural Sindh. Farm workers who tend land owned by someone else aspire to educate their sons and daughters so that they may lead more comfortable lives. They put them in government primary schools — usually the only option in a village — and hope for the best. These days many girls are put through middle and high school if they are nearby. After that, only a very small percentage may go on to study while the rest are kept home to contribute to the household income through embroidery. The boys are usually pushed all the way through matriculation and intermediate exams. Parents strive to ensure uniforms and stationery are paid for.

Despite their best efforts, the results are poor given the state of government schools. Teachers rarely attend or seldom hold regular classes. If they do teach punctually, their method is normally so dull that students lose interest. If students are motivated enough on their own or are monitored by their parents, they pick up a thing or two through self study. Otherwise, most end up with a certificate and without any knowledge or practical skills.

By the intermediate level, the student is too jaded and the family too exhausted to go further. So education stops there. Now, both student and parents expect to reap the benefit of this long trial. They aspire to a government job or a visa to Dubai, Saudi Arabia or Iran where earnings are high.

For the ordinary farmer, both are difficult propositions. Government jobs are not available without substantial bribes they can’t afford or political reach they don’t have. Likewise, going abroad is a debt-creating, back-breaking affair that only very few choose. Jobs at private companies are hard to come by anywhere except Karachi where some factory work is available. But then, many families fear Karachi’s violent streets and in any case the earnings wouldn’t be sufficient to send money home after paying for living costs in the city.

The youth must recognise dignity in all forms of labour.

The result is the young man won’t work on the fields since he now views himself as above that form of work, having acquired an education for the very purpose of avoiding that profession. He also won’t be willing to sell kulfis or vegetables on a pushcart; again viewed as below his level. So he does nothing productive. He wakes up late, wears clean clothes that announce his educational standard and spends his day at the tea shop watching movies, playing cricket and whiling away time in gambling dens.

Parents are miserable. Their hard work led nowhere and on top of that they have yet another adult mouth to feed now.

How can this troubled class of youth be helped? First they need to be motivated to recognise the dignity of all forms of labour. They should be shown that in the absence of any appealing options, they can use their education to improve farming methods and produce a better yield. Likewise, small trade is a good way to keep occupied and earn at least a little living to reduce the household burden on aging parents. Then, they need to be provided with basic skills at the community level. Facilitators or local non-profit organisations can inexpensively provide short courses in simple things such as technology literacy, office filing, maintenance and presentation skills. Even a couple of educated and experienced villagers can offer this service. This very elementary training will help these young men whenever they do get an opportunity for a job interview.

Additionally, technical skills that are always in demand in villages and cities alike should be made more widespread. Large-scale, expensive vocational training centres are not imperative. There are several of these in major cities but these are out of reach to most of the rural poor who can neither find their way through the system nor afford the travel or residential costs it takes to live away from home. Instead, like India’s Barefoot University, local skilled technicians can be encouraged and paid minor fees to train groups of youth in technical skills such as mobile phone repair, generator repair, electrical and plumbing work in their villages. This sharing of skills doesn’t require major infrastructure or costs and will fill a major social gap.

Lastly, the youth need to be motivated to become community leaders who identify communal problems and help tackle them. All this will give this otherwise lackadaisical youth the confidence and skills that will not only help them generate an income but to become productive members of their communities.

The writer is a journalist and founder of Ali Hasan Mangi Memorial Trust.
 
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