Pakistan’s hybrid regime buying time before its downfall

[Bil]

Nothing significant enough in the past 3 elections to change the course of an election. Independent observers have said much the same thing.

Opinion polls by various organizations before the 2018 elections were largely in line with the final results.

Are you referring to Bajwa as head of CPEC, then he is not a 'serving army officer', he's retired. And there are many, many appointments of retired (in some cases serving) military officials to various institutions by US Presidents.

If the 'oldest democracy in the world' is fine with it, why should the Prime Minister in Pakistan not be able to appoint whomever he considers best for the position?

Then why accuse the Army of being behind the repeal of the 18th amendment?

If the Army really had that much control over politicians, and they disliked the 18th amendment, they would have scuttled it when it came up for voting in the legislature.

And even if the Army isn't happy with the 18th Amendment, the author's arguments suggesting the Army wants to get rid of it in order to impose a military coup are absurd and make no sense. A military coup would not care for the constitution, let alone an amendment.

Supporter of 18th Amendment are ethically, morally & naturally corrupt and I tell you why.

The founders of this rotten to core 18th Amendment were Zardari and Nawaz. Today, when both have been exposed brutally (after Panama and Fake accounts case) and even a TEN years old knows about their intentions towards the country. I can say this today with utmost confident, without a shadow of doubt, that intend behind 18th Amendment was to legitimize the corruption so that nobody can point finger at them and raise question. These "Choors" of the nation can never ever do anything for the nation with good intentions (my heart and mind can and will never accept it).

In an ideal world, if 18th Amendment gets materialized in a fair and square way, then devolution of power should have been given at the division & district level administration (this never happened and will never every take place as long as these jerks are at the helm). In Punjab Hamza shahbaz used to appoint DPO's & SHO's. Similarly Showbazz Sharif used to appoint every single bureaucrat. In Punjab, there was no funds transparency and 70% funds of the province were given to Lahore - why? Is Lahore the only city of Punjab? Why other parts of the province were ignored? Due to this inequality in funds distribution only 30% used to spend in Punjab on basic necessities like education and healthcare, specially in South Punjab. And due to decades of criminal negligence country's healthcare system is facing the biggest crisis of our history - who's fault is it? I hold begharit Sharif's accountable for this mess and our medical shortcomings.

Speaking of funds, 50% of federal funds goes to provinces. From the rest, a huge chunk goes towards the "loan interest" and remaining goes to "defense budget". This is the biggest issue, that 50% of money, which provinces receive never get transferred down at division & district administration level. More to the point, there is accountability or audit was done on how money has been spent in past ten years in both, Sindh and Punjab. Showbazz received billion but there is no audit where that money was spent and same goes for Sindh.

For the above reason, I said it before and will reiterate again, the biggest sin of Bara Ganza, Chota Ganza and their other family members is that they deliberately destroyed Pakistani institutes via political appointments.

PPP is the biggest obstacle and dont want to debate on 18th Amendment at any cost, because of the obvious reason (their "Khana Peena" will be compromised).

That said, quantitative analysis on 18th Amendment is vital, it should happen and it seems like its inevitable. I must say, coronavirus is a blessing in disguise, because eventually 18th Amendment will be addressed (Inshallah).

 

[Haris Ali2140]

As his failures pile up, PM Imran Khan has reorganized his government's propaganda arm

By IMAD ZAFAR APRIL 28, 2020

A pioneer in the field of public relations and propaganda, Edward Bernays, once said, “Propaganda is the executive arm of the invisible government.” Bernays was right, as in the modern world both democratic and authoritative regimes need propagandists not only to divert the attention of the masses toward non-issues but also to keep them hostage to the designated paradigm of what they should eat, what they should wear, and whom they should vote for.

This is the reason information ministries are given a key position, as they put a spin on events and proceedings according to the will of government, whether visible or invisible. On Monday, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan removed Firdous Ashiq Awan as his special assistant on information and brought in a senior Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) senator, Shibli Faraz, as the new information minister.

Khan also appointed retired Lieutenant-General Asim Saleem Bajwa as his special assistant on information, sending a clear message that the military establishment is not ready to accept the failures of the hybrid regime it set up, which is not only destroying the economy but also weakening democracy and political discourse.

Bajwa, who also acts as chairman of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Authority (CPECA), enjoys a good reputation within the military establishment, as during his stint as director general of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), he successfully promoted the image of the then Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Raheel Sharif, and managed the media as the establishment expected.

So gradually the invisible government of the establishment is becoming visible, as the bad governance of the Khan-led PTI government and its inability to bring the opposition parties to the table for a cohesive national action plan for fighting the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on country’s economy has left the establishment with virtually no option but to come to center stage and govern from the front.

The problem remains that a weak prime minister who is the product of a rigged political discourse has no authority to stop the establishment from undermining democracy, as he lacks legitimacy, just like the dictators of Pakistan’s past. This is the reason a few PTI cabinet ministers have started talking about changes in the 18th Amendment of the constitution, which guarantees autonomy to the provinces.

The 18th Amendment has always been disliked by the establishment, as not only does it deprive the military elite of direct intervention in the form of martial law but it also allocates state revenue to the provinces according to their population size, so the federal government is left with not much control or resources at its disposal.

In a time when the entire world is going through a recession due to the pandemic and countries are reducing their unproductive expenditures such as military and defense budgets, the establishment in Pakistan is doing the opposite.

fiasco over Kashmir, the defense budget itself is questionable. After all, Pakistan’s defense spending has always been India-centric and has always revolved around Kashmir.

Since Kashmir has in effect been annexed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and in the testing times of a global pandemic even India has announced a cut in its defense budget, it poses a question for the Pakistani establishment as to why not it should not also cut its budget, and reallocate the funding toward better health facilities and giving relief to the masses who are bearing the brunt of the lockdown in the form of unemployment and closure of their businesses.

So the man who projected Raheel Sharif as the messiah of the nation is back, with a more difficult job. Not only will he be required to spin the debate on whether or not to cut the defense budget, but he will also be required to present the inept and visionless Prime Minister Imran Khan as a hero and to project the image of the current COAS, General Qamar Javed Bajwa.

The new director general of ISPR, Major-General Babar Iftikhar, unlike his predecessor, is a professional who is focused on building his institution’s reputation instead of focusing on projecting an individual’s image. Asim Bajwa has good contacts in the media and with dissident journalists practically banned from the electronic media, it would not be difficult for a man like him to handle the media effectively.

Ayub Khan nor General Pervez Musharraf was able to save himself or their anointed parties despite the backing of their cronies who were appointed on every key position of the state.

So the end is in clear sight – it is just a matter of how long the masses will have to pay the price of the misadventures of the establishment and Khan-led PTI. Probably no political party will want to come to power during a global recession and pandemic, but even so the PTI regime will find it hard to survive, and some in the establishment may be already feeling the heat.

Perhaps this is the reason that as a last resort the establishment is trying to make adjustments to the 18th Amendment and trying to help out the current government by appointing one of its former media managers to attempt to polish the image of Imran Khan, who is now being criticized widely in the country for his rhetoric and not doing anything practical.

When the invisible forces were working on bringing Khan to power through rigged general elections, little did they knew that soon a time would come when they would be in the same boat as Khan and sharing his fate.

A respectable tactical retreat could have been an option but unfortunately, the establishment wasted time teaching the dissident political parties a lesson for challenging its hegemony. Now the more time passes, the more the process of retreat on the power chessboard will be bitter and embarrassing for the establishment and its civilian face, the PTI government.

Imad Zafar is a journalist and columnist/commentator for newspapers. He is associated with TV channels, radio, newspapers, news agencies, and political, policy and media related think-tanks.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/pakistans-hybrid-regime-buying-time-before-its-downfall/

Wow....More reason to end this 18th amendment...and IMPOSE governor rule in Sindh.

Propagandists in PPP and N-League are having NIGHTMARES due to appointment of Mr. Bajwa

Someone should ask this dude where is her goddess Maryam Nawaz??? He was terming her up a revolutionist who would topple this regime. Now there is not even a peep from her.

 

[Mentee]

In an ideal world, if 18th Amendment gets materialized in a fair and square way, then devolution of power should have been given at the division & district level administration

Divisions are not necessary for local bodies and have never been. Honestly it has no function at all but to accommodate old osd's from PAS. If I recall correctly there was no divisional bureaucratic heirarchy but a DC performing his "duties " under the city mayor that's it.

 

[Dalit]

You all prefer to live in your fake ill-serving fantasies.

There is no point in arguing or debating this. Remember fantasies have a habit of shattering at unexpected times and in unexpectable ways

You should be more worried about Modi's Hindustan where lynching and rape are a daily occurence.

 

[Verve]

Hindutva, Patwaris, PTM, Sickulars, Libturds and Qadyanis ... All on the same page ... reflected in this thread too!

 

[Syed1.]

Isn't it ironic that in Pakistan the so called democratic parties are passed down through bloodline just like royalty in olden days, while the aristocratic and dictatorial army has complete merit in promotions and leadership.

I think our country was more democratic under Musharraf, with an efficient and effective local government system and a functioning provincial system that did not impinge on the responsibilities of the federal government or over-rule the local governments.

Had the stupid lawyers movement not happened and get hijacked by these "democratic" parties, Mush would have ruled for alot longer and I dare say Pakistan would have been in MUCH better state than it is now. During Mush we had 7-8% annual economic growth, lots of FDI, most state run companies such as PSM, PIA and PR in profit and the country was rapidly advancing. Then democracy started taking its revenge.

British style parliamentary democracy does not work in Pakistan. Whenever we have seen rapid development and advancement it has been under the iron fist of dictatorial rule. Once we achieve developed world status we can go back to "democracy". In the most developed country in the world, USA, you elect the president and he then has free will to select the best and brightest from the length and breadth of his country to form his cabinet. In Pakistan, IK tried to do something similar and everyday we get some mediaperson barking about how many unelected people are in the cabinet. What does some local MNA who only knows how to buy votes know about running the finance or health ministry?

 

[ziaulislam]

I broadly agree. I was actually defending the government post-2018 election on the economy and saying the steps being taken are necessary.

The only way it could have been better is if IK (perhaps unrealistically) made it clear to his voters of what would happen in 2018 and afterwards, instead of the unfulfillable promises of unrealistic proportions about employment, building homes etc. And secondly, I believe they should have been quicker to let on to the loans and IMF programmes, they seemed to procrastinate and hesitate too much which cost us, and it's yet to be seen what they'll do next, but it seemed for a small window between the first IMF review and covid that they now hesitated too much to loosen some austerity drive measures for the sake of the economy, they had options by then and things were not as dire as before but didn't really look to be exercising those options.

But as I said, this is small scale criticism, broadly speaking we're in agreement. The economic crisis wasn't caused by PTI or IK, they can't be blamed for it.



On the subject, I believe those can still be a baseline, I see that you take issue with them. But like I said, these claims can't be substantiated for now. Establishment has rigged plenty of elections in the past, take your pick, one of the elections in the 50s, 1964, 1990 etc.

The 1990 election for example was rigged in favour of Nawaz Sharif, and in the years leading up to it, the establishment was set against Benazir, they undertook operation midnight jackal to take her government down. The army leadership behind the scenes facilitated a vote of no-confidence in BB, subsequent electoral rigging (not so much by vote rigging but the plethora of other techniques), mehrangate scandal, and funding the opposition IDA and propping a Nawaz coalition. All of these claims that for two decades were as you said "unsubstantiated" were subsequently proven, it just took some time and the political atmosphere. Similarly, I believe time will tell what happened between 2014-present and the army's role in politics. You may disagree and say that it's unsubstantiated, you don't suspect these claims to be true at all. Fine, of course it's unsubstantiated... But nowhere did the article claim, nor did I claim that these were as yet verified accounts. But that won't stop me from discussing this in the interim, without waiting for some apex court a decade or two from now proving what's being said/alluded to. We can quite freely, and I can quite happily discuss and speculate these claims until the day that it is proven.

Secondly, on appointments and calling the shots, these things happen behind the scenes. Note the latter clause of the sentence: behind the scenes. Meaning they aren't for us to know, but we can infer, if we choose to believe that the establishment has sway over the government and helped bring them in to power (as I believe, and as you clearly don't believe yet). The disagreement is fine, we are all free to believe as we wish, but if previous examples of army influence are anything to go by, the people who filled the PTI's ranks coincided with the as yet unsubstantiated allegations of establishment influence around the time of the buildup to the 2014 dharna. Again, I hear your criticism, and it's stemmed directly in the issue of unsubstantiated base line. To that end, there's really not much to elaborate on, if like you, we believe that it's probably not true or unproven, then the whole article is a piece of hogwash, to be ignored or repudiated. If you indulge the speculation as I am, then to infer what the establishment is doing is not a far stretch at all. The appointment of ex-DG ISPR to SAPM is probably one such example of a less cautious episode of establishment influencing. But fine, let's agree to disagree since you are not willing to indulge any unsubstantiated claims until they are undoubtedly substantiated, which as I said might happen who knows how many years hence.

On an aisde, I fail to see what you mean by the article being poorly written per se. It's an editorial, of course they'll editorialise, I get that some people's issues with them, but besides that I don't see poor writing anywhere. Average and middling but not poor. Pakistan's political system has historically been some form a hybrid regime or outright dictatorship, the army has been in and out and around power, for decades now. I think it's naive to assume things have changed when a good proportion of the opposition, certain people in media and others are claiming foul play.

I don't think this debate will go anywhere, at least not until those claims are verified at some later date. But almost every case of alleged army involvement in politics has proven to be true given enough time has passed. History has proved journalists like this to be true in the past when it comes to the establishment in Pakistan.

Well you arent a politician than...this is a difference between politician and a technocrat..selling lies (or hopes) vs reality ...
The reason i am not going to judge someone on he said you said but rather what was acheived on ground..
This is true universally ..
If IK only preached reality noone would have voted for him

Supporter of 18th Amendment are ethically, morally & naturally corrupt and I tell you why.

The founders of this rotten to core 18th Amendment were Zardari and Nawaz. Today, when both have been exposed brutally (after Panama and Fake accounts case) and even a TEN years old knows about their intentions towards the country. I can say this today with utmost confident, without a shadow of doubt, that intend behind 18th Amendment was to legitimize the corruption so that nobody can point finger at them and raise question. These "Choors" of the nation can never ever do anything for the nation with good intentions (my heart and mind can and will never accept it).

In an ideal world, if 18th Amendment gets materialized in a fair and square way, then devolution of power should have been given at the division & district level administration (this never happened and will never every take place as long as these jerks are at the helm). In Punjab Hamza shahbaz used to appoint DPO's & SHO's. Similarly Showbazz Sharif used to appoint every single bureaucrat. In Punjab, there was no funds transparency and 70% funds of the province were given to Lahore - why? Is Lahore the only city of Punjab? Why other parts of the province were ignored? Due to this inequality in funds distribution only 30% used to spend in Punjab on basic necessities like education and healthcare, specially in South Punjab. And due to decades of criminal negligence country's healthcare system is facing the biggest crisis of our history - who's fault is it? I hold begharit Sharif's accountable for this mess and our medical shortcomings.

Speaking of funds, 50% of federal funds goes to provinces. From the rest, a huge chunk goes towards the "loan interest" and remaining goes to "defense budget". This is the biggest issue, that 50% of money, which provinces receive never get transferred down at division & district administration level. More to the point, there is accountability or audit was done on how money has been spent in past ten years in both, Sindh and Punjab. Showbazz received billion but there is no audit where that money was spent and same goes for Sindh.

For the above reason, I said it before and will reiterate again, the biggest sin of Bara Ganza, Chota Ganza and their other family members is that they deliberately destroyed Pakistani institutes via political appointments.

PPP is the biggest obstacle and dont want to debate on 18th Amendment at any cost, because of the obvious reason (their "Khana Peena" will be compromised).

That said, quantitative analysis on 18th Amendment is vital, it should happen and it seems like its inevitable. I must say, coronavirus is a blessing in disguise, because eventually 18th Amendment will be addressed (Inshallah).

Before amendment the problem was most fund go to federal govt..problem lies in partiall devolution of power..should have gone forward and given districts equal funds too..that was the plan but was scrapped

 

[hussain0216]

Supporter of 18th Amendment are ethically, morally & naturally corrupt and I tell you why.

The founders of this rotten to core 18th Amendment were Zardari and Nawaz. Today, when both have been exposed brutally (after Panama and Fake accounts case) and even a TEN years old knows about their intentions towards the country. I can say this today with utmost confident, without a shadow of doubt, that intend behind 18th Amendment was to legitimize the corruption so that nobody can point finger at them and raise question. These "Choors" of the nation can never ever do anything for the nation with good intentions (my heart and mind can and will never accept it).

In an ideal world, if 18th Amendment gets materialized in a fair and square way, then devolution of power should have been given at the division & district level administration (this never happened and will never every take place as long as these jerks are at the helm). In Punjab Hamza shahbaz used to appoint DPO's & SHO's. Similarly Showbazz Sharif used to appoint every single bureaucrat. In Punjab, there was no funds transparency and 70% funds of the province were given to Lahore - why? Is Lahore the only city of Punjab? Why other parts of the province were ignored? Due to this inequality in funds distribution only 30% used to spend in Punjab on basic necessities like education and healthcare, specially in South Punjab. And due to decades of criminal negligence country's healthcare system is facing the biggest crisis of our history - who's fault is it? I hold begharit Sharif's accountable for this mess and our medical shortcomings.

Speaking of funds, 50% of federal funds goes to provinces. From the rest, a huge chunk goes towards the "loan interest" and remaining goes to "defense budget". This is the biggest issue, that 50% of money, which provinces receive never get transferred down at division & district administration level. More to the point, there is accountability or audit was done on how money has been spent in past ten years in both, Sindh and Punjab. Showbazz received billion but there is no audit where that money was spent and same goes for Sindh.

For the above reason, I said it before and will reiterate again, the biggest sin of Bara Ganza, Chota Ganza and their other family members is that they deliberately destroyed Pakistani institutes via political appointments.

PPP is the biggest obstacle and dont want to debate on 18th Amendment at any cost, because of the obvious reason (their "Khana Peena" will be compromised).

That said, quantitative analysis on 18th Amendment is vital, it should happen and it seems like its inevitable. I must say, coronavirus is a blessing in disguise, because eventually 18th Amendment will be addressed (Inshallah).

Great post

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

On the subject, I believe those can still be a baseline, I see that you take issue with them. But like I said, these claims can't be substantiated for now. Establishment has rigged plenty of elections in the past, take your pick, one of the elections in the 50s, 1964, 1990 etc.

The 1990 election for example was rigged in favour of Nawaz Sharif, and in the years leading up to it, the establishment was set against Benazir, they undertook operation midnight jackal to take her government down. The army leadership behind the scenes facilitated a vote of no-confidence in BB, subsequent electoral rigging (not so much by vote rigging but the plethora of other techniques), mehrangate scandal, and funding the opposition IDA and propping a Nawaz coalition. All of these claims that for two decades were as you said "unsubstantiated" were subsequently proven, it just took some time and the political atmosphere. Similarly, I believe time will tell what happened between 2014-present and the army's role in politics. You may disagree and say that it's unsubstantiated, you don't suspect these claims to be true at all. Fine, of course it's unsubstantiated... But nowhere did the article claim, nor did I claim that these were as yet verified accounts. But that won't stop me from discussing this in the interim, without waiting for some apex court a decade or two from now proving what's being said/alluded to. We can quite freely, and I can quite happily discuss and speculate these claims until the day that it is proven.

Secondly, on appointments and calling the shots, these things happen behind the scenes. Note the latter clause of the sentence: behind the scenes. Meaning they aren't for us to know, but we can infer, if we choose to believe that the establishment has sway over the government and helped bring them in to power (as I believe, and as you clearly don't believe yet). The disagreement is fine, we are all free to believe as we wish, but if previous examples of army influence are anything to go by, the people who filled the PTI's ranks coincided with the as yet unsubstantiated allegations of establishment influence around the time of the buildup to the 2014 dharna. Again, I hear your criticism, and it's stemmed directly in the issue of unsubstantiated base line. To that end, there's really not much to elaborate on, if like you, we believe that it's probably not true or unproven, then the whole article is a piece of hogwash, to be ignored or repudiated. If you indulge the speculation as I am, then to infer what the establishment is doing is not a far stretch at all. The appointment of ex-DG ISPR to SAPM is probably one such example of a less cautious episode of establishment influencing. But fine, let's agree to disagree since you are not willing to indulge any unsubstantiated claims until they are undoubtedly substantiated, which as I said might happen who knows how many years hence.

On an aisde, I fail to see what you mean by the article being poorly written per se. It's an editorial, of course they'll editorialise, I get that some people's issues with them, but besides that I don't see poor writing anywhere. Average and middling but not poor. Pakistan's political system has historically been some form a hybrid regime or outright dictatorship, the army has been in and out and around power, for decades now. I think it's naive to assume things have changed when a good proportion of the opposition, certain people in media and others are claiming foul play.

I don't think this debate will go anywhere, at least not until those claims are verified at some later date. But almost every case of alleged army involvement in politics has proven to be true given enough time has passed. History has proved journalists like this to be true in the past when it comes to the establishment in Pakistan.

You can't make contested, unsubstantiated claims a baseline for a credible analysis unless you're a conspiracy theory nut. That's precisely the kind of 'analysis' that results in Mossad+CIA were responsible for the 9/11 attacks. It is a poorly written opinion piece BECAUSE the entire piece rests on unsubstantiated claims - you can't brush that under the rug by simple calling it an 'editorial'.

Your other justification for the conspiracy theories peddled by the author is essentially that the 'past justifies the present' - because the military engaged in coups and political interference in the past that means it MUST be doing so in the present. I would counter that with the argument that there is no credible evidence of the military manipulating domestic politics since Musharraf. The election of the PPP in 2008 was expected given the popularity of BB and the wave of sympathy the PPP curried in the wake of her assassination. The PMLN's election in 2013 was also expected even though the PTI did put up a pretty decent show and the 2018 elections did not diverge from the projections made by various polls.

Take the Dharna as an example - Raheel Sharif, the COAS at the time, is credited with 'ending the dharna'. That would imply then that either there were/are multiple power centers in the Army or that the claims of 'Army involvement in promoting the Dharna' were baseless. You can't simultaneously credit the same institution for stoking the dharna AND stopping the dharna. To this day there is nothing except unsubstantiated rumors about the involvement of a former DG ISI in the PTI's dharna. Quite frankly, running with unsubstantiated rumors and gossip is an extremely annoying trait of the Pakistani media and chattering classes. Have you considered the possibility that said former DG ISI, in a private conversation/s, may have articulated his personal political views and expressed his support for the Dharna and PTI? And that the conversation eventually (with all the distortions of narrating an account verbally from person to person) made it's way into the media? Army officials vote in the US as well and have their own political leanings that they discuss with friends and family in private. Maybe a private conversation about political preferences has been blown into this conspiracy theory of 'Army led the Dharna'.

At what point then will the past no longer justify allegations and speculation about the involvement of the Army in domestic politics? Are you going to argue that only the election of a virulently anti-Army political party will make you believe that the Army isn't manipulating domestic politics? Is every 'pro-Army' political party elected to power an example of 'Army meddling in politics'? What's your yardstick for measuring Army manipulation of domestic politics? At this point it really seems that allegations of the Army meddling in domestic politics is basically up to the whims of the analyst.

You are correct that this debate won't go anywhere without 'facts', but it isn't really a debate at this point - just a debunking of absolutely atrocious op-ed pieces that are based entirely on speculative gossip. With due respect, your position and mine are not on the same plane - it is YOUR responsibility to prove/substantiate your claims, not mine to prove a negative. I am perfectly fine waiting for some future time when claims such as those made by the author in the OP can be substantiated, but that also requires people like yourself (I have no expectations or hope from people like Imad Zafar who have made a career out of promoting speculation and gossip as 'analysis') to refrain from promoting or encouraging piss poor analysis as 'credible'. I know that you recognize the lack of evidence supporting the claims made by the author, but that is where you should have left it.

 

[Jungibaaz]

I know this discussion is not likely to get anywhere, we're debating at an impasse, I am indulging an as yet unverified story to its umpteenth extent because I have heard things aplenty to be sure of them, while you are refusing to lend it any credibility and we're therefore stuck. None of the underlying issues can be considered if what I say has no factual basis, and you aren't willing to yield dismission. But I'll see what can be addressed without too many tangential arcs without mutual recognition and logical common ground.

You can't make contested, unsubstantiated claims a baseline for a credible analysis unless you're a conspiracy theory nut. That's precisely the kind of 'analysis' that results in Mossad+CIA were responsible for the 9/11 attacks. It is a poorly written opinion piece BECAUSE the entire piece rests on unsubstantiated claims - you can't brush that under the rug by simple calling it an 'editorial'.

Your other justification for the conspiracy theories peddled by the author is essentially that the 'past justifies the present' - because the military engaged in coups and political interference in the past that means it MUST be doing so in the present. I would counter that with the argument that there is no credible evidence of the military manipulating domestic politics since Musharraf. The election of the PPP in 2008 was expected given the popularity of BB and the wave of sympathy the PPP curried in the wake of her assassination. The PMLN's election in 2013 was also expected even though the PTI did put up a pretty decent show and the 2018 elections did not diverge from the projections made by various polls.

Take the Dharna as an example - Raheel Sharif, the COAS at the time, is credited with 'ending the dharna'. That would imply then that either there were/are multiple power centers in the Army or that the claims of 'Army involvement in promoting the Dharna' were baseless. You can't simultaneously credit the same institution for stoking the dharna AND stopping the dharna. To this day there is nothing except unsubstantiated rumors about the involvement of a former DG ISI in the PTI's dharna. And quite frankly running with unsubstantiated rumors and gossip is an extremely annoying trait of the Pakistani media and chattering classes. Maybe said former DG ISI, in a private conversation, said that he personally supports the PTI & its protest. (army officials vote in the US as well and have their own political leanings that they discuss with friends and family in private). Maybe a private conversation about political preferences has been blown into this conspiracy theory of 'Army led the Dharna'.

At what point then will the past no longer justify allegations and speculation about the involvement of the Army in domestic politics? Are you going to argue that only the election of a virulently anti-Army political party will make you believe that the Army isn't manipulating domestic politics? Is every 'pro-Army' political party elected to power an example of 'Army meddling in politics'? What's your yardstick for measuring Army manipulation of domestic politics? At this point it really seems that allegations of the Army meddling in domestic politics is basically up to the whims of the analyst.

You are correct that this debate won't go anywhere without 'facts', but it isn't really a debate at this point - just a debunking of absolutely atrocious op-ed pieces that are based entirely on speculative gossip. With due respect, your position and mine are not on the same plane - it is YOUR responsibility to prove/substantiate your claims, not mine to prove a negative. I am perfectly fine waiting for some future time when claims such as those made by the author in the OP can be substantiated, but that also requires people like yourself (I have no expectations or hope from people like Imad Zafar who have made a career out of promoting speculation and gossip as 'analysis') to refrain from promoting or encouraging piss poor analysis as 'credible'. I know that you recognize the lack of evidence supporting the claims made by the author, but that is where you should have left it.

Your hesitance and reaction is understandable, and at least part of it is reasonable even in my estimation. It's easier for me to accept these claims than it is for you. Unfortunately, this is because of the nature of the issues at hand, which I will comment on in a moment. But it seems to me that you're making several logical leaps here to arrive at the intended disparaging comparison. If historically a precedence had been set whereby people alleging the sighting of smoke usually led them (at least) surmising that there may is a fire, only for it to be confirmed at a later perhaps inopportune moment.

If myself and many other people all claimed to see smoke, smell it, hear other stories of people who've seen it, some who've even seen the fire itself but aren't allowed to speak up, and historically speaking... those who have said as much have been proven right in the past. Should we then simply be dismissed? Sure, after all where is the evidence, we are indeed making several claims and assertions the basis of which is missing. So please feel free to dismiss our stories as thus far unverified claims. But to dismiss them as "conspiracy theory nuts" is perhaps several steps too far. I personally don't indulge in the wilder conspiracies, but our history is full of similar examples, and that imparts a lot of credence.

And that comment about nature of the issues at hand is another subject. In Pakistan, you still cannot openly criticise the army, news media has for years been alleging that their editors, anchors and journalists have been threatened with all kinds of action, a lot of the action being extra-judicial, in an attempt to shut down criticism of the army and open dissent. The purpose my dear fellow is to keep persons like yourself uninformed so that you can easily dismiss such talk as illogical, baseless, conspiratorial, or failing that, it can be derided as anti-state etc. I don't think it's fair then to demand a high standard of proof for these claims, until the moment that the grip is loosened, the truth won't be revealed. If in 1992 we were discussing the role of generals in bringing down Benazir's government, you would be asking for evidence which I don't have, I would be further alleging that the details that I have heard are not yet part of the public record and can't be made a matter of discussion. That journalists have been threatened not to speak up, some of them kidnapped. You could dismiss everything I say even as you are right now, and only 20 years later in 2012, would the SC verify all that I had claimed at the time about army interference.

And let me assure you, when it comes to the situation today, I am not just taking wild conspiratorial guesses. For years while hearing from others what has gone on behind the scenes, I refused to believe them and thought that the stories were too outlandish to be taken seriously. I was late to relent, but relent I did. I can only hope that the day comes soon when some of the facts of what I have said are added to the public discourse, and I cannot imagine the reaction people will have to the details of which even I have been hesitant to even mention here.

On Raheel Sharif and the dharna, I never claimed anything of that sort, I'm not sure who you are quoting in when pointing out that dichotomy. Last two paragraphs of this will help clear up your confusion, or maybe add to the confusion if you dismiss this as baseless, it really depends but this really is how it went. And on the whole poor writing thing, I still disagree, I'm not 'calling it an editorial' in order to brush under the rug the lack of factual basis, I am pointing out to you that it is an editorial and is opinion based, it's not a report or even a piece of investigative journalism, couple that with the censorship of information regarding this topic, I don't really see any example of poor writing anywhere, at best you can dismiss it as lacking a verified basis.

 

[Avatar]

I appreciate your comments, although I'm not that enlightened, I had my eyes closed until recently too. I would have been among those voices just a few years back, so I sympathise with ordinary people for holding the views they do. I even sympathise with those who leave understandably misguided angry responses when I make certain comments.

The establishment has built an aura around themselves and have associated their actions with the respect ordinary people have for the army, and they've successfully infused that as a part of the national culture and identity. It's why when someone alleges that generals are interfering in politics behind the scenes, as they have always wont to do, honest intentioned and well meaning Pakistanis respond defensively, and make several logical jumps, they begin suspecting the motives of the claimant and they wonder whether are foreign agents/traitors or just partisan galley slaves.

Of the latter I've been accused, little do they know, if and when IK gets thrown out of power by these forces, far from schadenfreude, I will be the first to defend him and point out that he was removed by undemocratic forces (if indeed that is how he is removed and it's not a case of support being withdrawn alone). Agree on almost everything else in your post, but on IK in particular as I discussed previously in this other thread, while I sympathise with his plight, I also think he has set himself up for some of the trouble he is facing and especially will face in the coming years

Hello Jungibaaz.

You are exceptionally well learned and informed.

I have come across many Pakistani people in different parts of the world including China, Europe and America. The ones I met in China seemed to mostly come from the lower rugs of the society, simple people who are just looking for better opportunities in life. I also came across many Indians who are from similar backgrounds and adopted a similar lifestyle. China of course - is not the foreign land any of us aspire to live in. The younger ones in Europe and America, up to their late 20s were not so different from any other South East Asian immigrant nationality. We seem to have a lot more in common than we care to acknowledge. I didn't feel any different interacting with young Pakistanis, especially 2nd or 3rd gen immigrants.

The elder ones who are well established, patriotic Pakistanis also seemed to have no issues getting along. We have much more in common than we realize. The last elderly person I remember from US, was an Indian/Pakistani restaurant owner near Niagara falls. He was a die hard patriotic lover of Pakistan who wanted to come back but he was very disappointed due to the political and economic turmoil in the country. He was mentioning some news of Imran Khan allowing people to beat up corrupt govt employees or something like that. The point I am trying to make is that - distrust and enmity have no basis to be in the civilian populations of either nations. We need not identify with the official narratives of our respective agencies at play.

Just knowing you gives me hope that one day our nations might be on friendlier terms. On a personal basis, as you might have inferred, I have no reason to have any ill will towards any Pakistani. In fact, leaving the bitter history aside I see no reason why we cannot be on friendly terms and I see no significant benefit or loss on either side from having or not having the other side of Kashmir. If it were up to me I'd even let Kashmiris choose to have their own nation or whatever they like but things are much more complicated than that and the LOC becoming border is really the best chance we have of resolving the dispute peacefully. Everyone knows Kashmir would only be a start - Delhi is the (far fetched) dream?

The arms buildup and preparation for war on either side is completely stupid. It serves India only to prepare it for a greater, eventual threat against containing China, but on the western side we have already tried and concluded that skirmishes are not going to bring much change in the status quo and a true war will cost both sides significantly more than any outcome. Inevitably, this behaviour has us going into a never ending arms race that is like a never-ending game of chess - except it costs a lot more and nobody is going to win. The only beneficiaries are politicians, crooked military men and the arms producers who supply the market.

I absolutely admit that you are much better informed about Pakistani politics than I am. To me, the big issue seems to be that the establishment has completely lost control of the economy and Pakistan can simply not afford to continue like this. Lack of development or opportunities will only corrupt the minds of youth and the mullahs will only make it worse with their pills of hatred.

So - I wonder if you have contemplated possible outcomes of our greater narrative? The fact that you are still here and trying to make your stand tells me you have not abandoned hope. You are very brave and I respect you for it. Its a pleasing change from all the vile insults and hatred that I usually experience here.

I only wish that the more educated Pakistanis, especially who have the privilege to monitor these forums would be less easily swayed into placing such high faith in the military establishment to let them undemocratically dictate the course of the entire nation without doubting their intentions or evaluating the past.

 

[That Guy]

As his failures pile up, PM Imran Khan has reorganized his government's propaganda arm

By IMAD ZAFAR APRIL 28, 2020

A pioneer in the field of public relations and propaganda, Edward Bernays, once said, “Propaganda is the executive arm of the invisible government.” Bernays was right, as in the modern world both democratic and authoritative regimes need propagandists not only to divert the attention of the masses toward non-issues but also to keep them hostage to the designated paradigm of what they should eat, what they should wear, and whom they should vote for.

This is the reason information ministries are given a key position, as they put a spin on events and proceedings according to the will of government, whether visible or invisible. On Monday, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan removed Firdous Ashiq Awan as his special assistant on information and brought in a senior Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) senator, Shibli Faraz, as the new information minister.

Khan also appointed retired Lieutenant-General Asim Saleem Bajwa as his special assistant on information, sending a clear message that the military establishment is not ready to accept the failures of the hybrid regime it set up, which is not only destroying the economy but also weakening democracy and political discourse.

Bajwa, who also acts as chairman of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Authority (CPECA), enjoys a good reputation within the military establishment, as during his stint as director general of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), he successfully promoted the image of the then Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Raheel Sharif, and managed the media as the establishment expected.

So gradually the invisible government of the establishment is becoming visible, as the bad governance of the Khan-led PTI government and its inability to bring the opposition parties to the table for a cohesive national action plan for fighting the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on country’s economy has left the establishment with virtually no option but to come to center stage and govern from the front.

The problem remains that a weak prime minister who is the product of a rigged political discourse has no authority to stop the establishment from undermining democracy, as he lacks legitimacy, just like the dictators of Pakistan’s past. This is the reason a few PTI cabinet ministers have started talking about changes in the 18th Amendment of the constitution, which guarantees autonomy to the provinces.

The 18th Amendment has always been disliked by the establishment, as not only does it deprive the military elite of direct intervention in the form of martial law but it also allocates state revenue to the provinces according to their population size, so the federal government is left with not much control or resources at its disposal.

In a time when the entire world is going through a recession due to the pandemic and countries are reducing their unproductive expenditures such as military and defense budgets, the establishment in Pakistan is doing the opposite.

fiasco over Kashmir, the defense budget itself is questionable. After all, Pakistan’s defense spending has always been India-centric and has always revolved around Kashmir.

Since Kashmir has in effect been annexed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and in the testing times of a global pandemic even India has announced a cut in its defense budget, it poses a question for the Pakistani establishment as to why not it should not also cut its budget, and reallocate the funding toward better health facilities and giving relief to the masses who are bearing the brunt of the lockdown in the form of unemployment and closure of their businesses.

So the man who projected Raheel Sharif as the messiah of the nation is back, with a more difficult job. Not only will he be required to spin the debate on whether or not to cut the defense budget, but he will also be required to present the inept and visionless Prime Minister Imran Khan as a hero and to project the image of the current COAS, General Qamar Javed Bajwa.

The new director general of ISPR, Major-General Babar Iftikhar, unlike his predecessor, is a professional who is focused on building his institution’s reputation instead of focusing on projecting an individual’s image. Asim Bajwa has good contacts in the media and with dissident journalists practically banned from the electronic media, it would not be difficult for a man like him to handle the media effectively.

Ayub Khan nor General Pervez Musharraf was able to save himself or their anointed parties despite the backing of their cronies who were appointed on every key position of the state.

So the end is in clear sight – it is just a matter of how long the masses will have to pay the price of the misadventures of the establishment and Khan-led PTI. Probably no political party will want to come to power during a global recession and pandemic, but even so the PTI regime will find it hard to survive, and some in the establishment may be already feeling the heat.

Perhaps this is the reason that as a last resort the establishment is trying to make adjustments to the 18th Amendment and trying to help out the current government by appointing one of its former media managers to attempt to polish the image of Imran Khan, who is now being criticized widely in the country for his rhetoric and not doing anything practical.

When the invisible forces were working on bringing Khan to power through rigged general elections, little did they knew that soon a time would come when they would be in the same boat as Khan and sharing his fate.

A respectable tactical retreat could have been an option but unfortunately, the establishment wasted time teaching the dissident political parties a lesson for challenging its hegemony. Now the more time passes, the more the process of retreat on the power chessboard will be bitter and embarrassing for the establishment and its civilian face, the PTI government.

Imad Zafar is a journalist and columnist/commentator for newspapers. He is associated with TV channels, radio, newspapers, news agencies, and political, policy and media related think-tanks.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/pakistans-hybrid-regime-buying-time-before-its-downfall/

Wow....More reason to end this 18th amendment...and IMPOSE governor rule in Sindh.

Propagandists in PPP and N-League are having NIGHTMARES due to appointment of Mr. Bajwa

Can you guys PLEASE stop posting Imad Zafar articles. The man is a well known unhinged PMLN troll, with no credibility.

Just read his description

• Imad Zafar is a journalist and columnist/commentator for newspapers. He is associated with TV channels, radio, newspapers, news agencies, and political, policy and media related think-tanks.

What newspapers? What channels and radio stations? What news agencies and think tanks?

The man is a fraud.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

If it were up to me I'd even let Kashmiris choose to have their own nation or whatever they like but things are much more complicated than that

The first thing towards resolving the J&K dispute is having more and more Indians accept the principle (forget the logistics and details for now) of a UN (or other neutral entity) led plebiscite, without absurd demands of Pakistan unilaterally withdrawing all her troops from the territory under her control.

So long as a majority or plurality of Indians cannot even accept the principle of a UN led plebiscite in J&K, there is no point in engagement because the inability to accept the right of millions of Kashmiris to CHOOSE their fate reflects extremely poorly upon Indians and India.

 

[Village life]

تمام دوستوں سے میری پیشگی معذرت میں شاید کچھ اخلاقی دائرے سے باہر نکلنا چاہوں گا اس لئے اگر میری کوئی بات بری لگے تو اسے نظر انداز کیجیے اگر زیادہ بری لگی تو ایڈمن سے کہ کر مجھے بین کروا دیجیے گا لیکن تھوڑے دنوں کے لیے میں کہنا چاہتا ہوں کہ یہ سیاستدان سب کنجر ہیں ان کا کنجرخانہ کبھی بھی ختم نہیں ہوگا اور ملک نہیں سدھرے گا کوئی چھوٹا کنجر ہے کوئی بڑا اب جبکہ ملک کرونا بحران اور معاشی بحران میں مبتلا ہے تو ان سیاستدانوں کی ترجیحات دیکھ لیے کبھی نیب آرڈیننس میں ترامیم کبھی فلانا کمشن کبھی فلانا کمیشن کبھی کچھ کبھی کچھ اپوزیشن کے کنجر چاہتے ہیں کہ نیب ختم ہوجائے تو ہم گورنمنٹ کے ساتھ 18 ویں ترمیم پر بات کریں گے وہ گورنمنٹ کے کنجر چاہتے ہیں کہ ملک تباہ ہوجائے ہوجائے لیکن ہماری حکومت نہ جائے اصولوں پر سمجھوتا ہوجائے کوئی بات نہیں ابھی کرو نا سے اتنا نقصان نہیں ہوا لیکن پھر بھی ہماری اکانو می کلیپس کرنے کے نزدیک ہے 64 فیصد آبادی زراعت کے ساتھ منسلک ہے اور شکر ہے خدا کا ابھی گندم کی فصل آئی ہے اور لوگوں کے لئے کم ازکم اپنے کھانے کے لئے گندم موجود ہے جو کہ انہوں نے خود اوگای ہے لیکن جو ہماری سب سے بڑی اکانوی جنریٹر کراپ ہے کپاس کی فصل جو کہ ابھی اگست تک انی ہے ہماری 60فیصد برآمدات زرعی مصنوعات پر ہوتی ہیں اور ہماری حکومت کے پاس ابھی کوئی بھی پالیسی نہیں ہے ایسے حالات میں حکومت کے کا ن پر جو نہیں رینگی ی کپاس کی فصل کو جو سب سے بڑا خطرہ ہے وہ یہ ہے کہ ایک ریٹ نہیں ملے گا جس سے 64 فیصد آبادی اس ملک کی متاثر ہوگی اور جس کے بعد اصل اور بھوک افلاس ظاہر ہوں گی جو حکومت کسی بھی طرح پوری نہیں کر سکے گی دوسری بات یہ کہ چائنا انڈیا ویتنام بنگلہ دیش یہ ساری اپنی کاٹن پروڈکٹس انٹرنیشنل مارکیٹ اور پاکستان مارکیٹ میں ڈمپ کریں گے ہماری حالت یہ ہے کہ آج بھی پاکستان بنگلہ دیش سے کا ٹن پروڈکٹ ریڈی میڈ درآمد کر رہا ہے شرمناک بات یہ کہ کسی کو اس طرف دھیان بھی نہیں جاتا کہ ہم اپنے زرِمبادلہ کو کن چھوٹی چھوٹی چیزوں کے لیے خرچ کر رہے ہیں کبھی پلاسٹک کے کھلونوں پے کبھی صابن پہ کبھی شیمپو پر کبھی بیرون ملک کے بنے ہوئے کپڑوں پر جو کہ ہم خود بنا سکتے ہیں کرونا سے بھی بڑا بحران جو پاکستانی عوام کو پیش ہوگا وہ ٹڈی دل سے نقصان،، پچھلے سال بھی یو این او کی رپورٹ کے مطابق آئندہ سالوں میں ٹڈی دل پاکستان انڈیا اور دوسرے ممالک کی غذائی اجناس اور ایگرو اکانومی کو تباہ و برباد کریں گے پچھلے سال بھی ٹڈی دل کا کچھ نہیں کیا اب بھی کوئی پالیسی نہیں ہےا وہ ٹڈی دل بلوچستان میں داخل ہوچکے ہیں اور ہمارے کنجر سیاستدانوں کا کنجرخانہ ہی ختم نہیں ہوتا کبھی انکو نیب ختم کرنی ہے کرنی ہے کبھی انہوں نے قادیانیوں کا ایشو اٹھانے کبھی انہوں نے ٹائیگر فورس بنانی ہے کبھی فلانا کمیشن بنانے کبھی انہوں نے فلاں کمیشن بنانا ہے کرنا کچھ بھی نہیں رہی سہی کسر باجوہ صاحبان نے پوری کر دی ہے انکے ہم پیالا و ہم نوا ہو کر،

 

[Jungibaaz]

On the appointment of ex-DG ISPR, I have to hand it to the establishment they are by far the savviest political minds in all of Pakistan. Now ex-DG ISPR will be a welcome break from IK's own confrontational style of politics vis-à-vis the media and opposition.

Make no mistake, he is probably not IK's own pick. In fact, one of their own lackeys Sheikh Rasheed a while ago signaled that this would come:

"I spoke to Prime Minister Imran Khan on this issue a day ago and will talk to him tomorrow (today) again. I strongly believe ties with all the news organisations in the country should be improved just like the government did to Dawn. There will be good news for the media before Ramazan."

Sheikh Rasheed said he had talked to Imran Khan about the arrest of Jang GeoEditor-in-Chief Mir Shakil-ur-Rahman by the NAB....

That good news is the two new appointments, and probably a more conciliatory and softer approach to the opposition and media from now on, setting a new tone. It's why both PPP and PMLN have welcomed the appointments of Asim Bajwa and Shibli Faraz.

Additionally, by having your own SAPM, a member of the establishment and Gen (r) can now sit directly in cabinet meetings. A more direct line between the government and the army, one page indeed. And now statements coming from Bajwa sb will hold twice the gravity and weight as they did before, he'll speak for both the government and establishment, so he'll be taken a lot more seriously than his two predecessors. Heck, he might even skip the government and sometimes speak directly for the establishment. I expect that Shibli Faraz will get more of the limelight between the two, but even that is a big break from the predecessors. More reserved, more matter of fact, less aggressive on opposition, and more credibility with the media.

Brilliant move as ever.