Pakistan's French Subs: A Threat

[Adux]

Malay,

Even their Maritime AWACS cant see much, for the reason Indian coast and Pakistani coast are near to each other. Pakistan is in a precarious position.

 

[Bull]

A) You assume that whilst the SU-30's are busy bombing up and down the ports thats the PAF will be doing nothing. Guess what........they will probably try and do something..

IAF would be using the Jaguars to attack not the MKIs, i guess.

B)There are enough AWACS aircraft to keep a watch on pretty much all of PAKistan AND a large chunk of India as well as the territorial waters. As well as missiles that can extend into India. .

AWACS,AWACS....what happens after they detect? What toys you have to deny IAF jaguars and IN Harriers a bombing run over Karachi or the PN assets. Any diversion of PAF asset would deplete its counterforce afainst IAF in the main theatre. Now if you say we also would be depleted then IAF enjoys more than 1:1 ratio with PAF. So we can afford to divert assets whiole you cant.

c) Mr Adux has pointed out the Jaguars stationed near the coast. To that I say, "so what?" There are land based aircraft as well as missiles that can play a part there. Anyway a few LACMS with airfield denial munitions should keep those guys busy..

What if carier based harriers atack the port. Can PAF afford to divert its assets. It would be forced to and thats what IAF wants.

d)If (as has been speculated) China uses Gwadar as a port. They simply have to say " In the interest of business we will escort our merchant vessels to and from their destinations." That will pretty much scupper the blockade whilst at the same time free up forces for defence..

lol.....shipping is run mostly by pvt companies, the PLAN's godly presence wont convince them to pay the higher insurance premium and risk its ships. If the goods are meant for China they would just bypass the Gwadar port.

And also before you come out with such naive comments, pls do understand what gwadar is meant for. Its meant to act as a land connection to China via karakoram. When the entire land is at war whats the purpose of providing cover to ships?

e)The carriers that India will be using are not powerful enough to power project (like a American carrier) They were designed with bastion defence in mind (the designs like the Gorshkov are an example of this) They don't have steam catapults which can launch heavier aircraft with significant payloads. This reduces the combat radius of the carriers. .

How can that reduce the range of the carriers? Rnage of the fighters would be reduced. But with jaguiars now in jamnagar it can egt aircover 24*7 and so can be expected to operate in arange from where the deck based harriers can play a role.

Also they are not nuclear powered so they would have to have the ancillaries which in turn would have to be re-loaded. If they are proposing sending subs to guard them as well. then they will need a hell of a lot of subs merely to maintain the presence. This would present a juicy opportunity to the Pak subs.

Well riht. India needs lots of Subs to protect and Pakistan only needs 3 to do the trick.

 

[Adux]

Well riht. India needs lots of Subs to protect and Pakistan only needs 3 to do the trick.

hehe, 1 pakistan = 10 Indians is also taken in the sub-context

 

[Adux]

*Plans to design Marlin scrapped, Scorpene offered instead.
*Islamabad has asked France to offer Scorpene.
*If DCN wins, the arrangement will be same as with india.
*Pakistan will make it at home with DCN supplying hi-tech components.
*French export control agency has not objected to sale of scorpene.
*Some think DCN came up with Marlin just to get around objections from india. Compared to Scorpene, Marlin only varies in size.
*Decision will be taken by pakistan by end of 07

Dont we all love the French.

 

[Neo]

Where is the link to that report?

 

[Adux]

I got it from another forum, some insider got the info, he is a credible dude over there.

 

[Neo]

Haven't seen anything in the media including Pakdef yet.

 

[Contrarian]

Either way, i think Pakistan is negotiating for U-214 right?

 

[Neo]

Yea we are but Marlin offeres better perspective for our nuclear option since its rather based on the nuclear Barracuda then Scorpene.
My source told me recently that both will be inducted, 3 Marlins with 3 options and 3 U-216 with another 3 in option aswell.

So I'm rather surprised by Adu's claim.

 

[Adux]

Scorpene is based on the Rubis and the Barcudda

 

[Contrarian]

I cannot believe that this in any chance in the world could even possibly remotely be related to the truth...that Pakistan will buy BOTH the Marlin AND the U-214(not 216-typo, neo).

It simply cannot be afforded by Pakistan.

 

[Neo]

Don't underestimate us, as I've said earlier 2008 will be the year of the navy. If both subs are contracted the project worth around $3 billion will run for atleast 10 years, we can easily afford it.
And yes I meant the U-214, export version of the U-212

 

[Contrarian]

Indeed, U-214.
But this is something that we can only wait and watch. I have my very serious doubts over the veracity of this claim regarding both the boats being bought.

 

[Neo]

Time will tell my friend...

 

[blain2]

AWACS,AWACS....what happens after they detect? What toys you have to deny IAF jaguars and IN Harriers a bombing run over Karachi or the PN assets. Any diversion of PAF asset would deplete its counterforce afainst IAF in the main theatre. Now if you say we also would be depleted then IAF enjoys more than 1:1 ratio with PAF. So we can afford to divert assets whiole you cant.

What toys? PAF is not in the same situation as 1971 in terms of concentration of assets in Central Pakistan. We have bases in Karachi and Baluchistan (both near the coast) to ensure that there are substancial assets employed for air defence. With the establishment of Souther Air Command (SAC in the 80s), the utilization of resources is also optimized. Yes PAF would be stressed and stretched, but with the induction of MR platforms (F-16s, JF-17s), the stress is much less than what we had to face in 1971 (ill suited platforms for the multi-faceted threats).

What if carier based harriers atack the port. Can PAF afford to divert its assets. It would be forced to and thats what IAF wants.

Again SAC is tasked with this eventuality whereas you are taking the 1971 precedence which fortunately for Pakistan does not fully apply any longer.

How can that reduce the range of the carriers? Rnage of the fighters would be reduced. But with jaguiars now in jamnagar it can egt aircover 24*7 and so can be expected to operate in arange from where the deck based harriers can play a role.

Range of carriers is reduced due to the potential threat of Pakistani SSKs which this time around are armed with sub-surface AShM missiles. Air cover over Pakistan in itself is not an issue since both countries are adjacent to each other.

Well riht. India needs lots of Subs to protect and Pakistan only needs 3 to do the trick.

Well for Pakistan its not a matter of projection, rather its denial...so we can achieve it with much smaller numbers of technologically advanced subs. IN would be attempting to blockade the Pakistani coastline (which in itself is a huge task as Karachi is not the only port any longer) which would require it to extend her assets thus making its own assets vulnerable along the way. So its a matter of strategy, not really a numbers game.