Pakistan’s economy to surpass $2 trillion by 2050

[Tridibans]

This will happen between 2030-2035 per real estimates, but these estimates aren't being published because all forecasts are depending upon the most critical element for any business.....the availability of the electricity 24*7. The second you see this electric issue getting 80% resolved in the next two years, a lot of investment currently waiting, will be poured in from across the globe, and revised forecasts will be published. But the government MUST deliver on the electric issue, one of the MOST important factors I support these guys as this one issue is holding up an entire country's progress and needs to be fixed by mid - end of 2018.

2050 is too far, you'd have probably another 100+ million consumers being raised by then and Pakistan's population would be over 300+ million people for sure.

@MilSpec

Aren't you the guy who said India growing for 5% in next 35 years is 5*35=175% (RIP Maths ) so not possible to be top 3 economy... (actually it is 3000% or just 30 times even corroborated by the economist/ IMF )

At the same time, you say Pakistan will become 2 trillion $ economy from 250 Billion in 12 years...

Comes to about 19.5 % every year...

I will never take you seriously ever on economic matters...... perhaps a Somalian has more chance of convincing me than Orangzaib aka @Viper0011.

Seems you failed a lot in mAths....

And yes.... you said 12 years in the other thread and now when your idiotic logic is explained here, you now say 2035

 

[Nilgiri]

At the same time, you say Pakistan will become 2 trillion $ economy from 250 Billion in 12 years.

Did he actually say this? WOW. That would be called miracle on the Indus river....along the lines of Han river miracle for South Korea.

I was looking at another important statistic....Gross Capital Formation as % of GDP. It is not the be all and end all, but it gives a good idea of how much growth is coming up, especially for developing countries.

Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) | Data | Table

"Gross fixed capital formation (formerly gross domestic fixed investment) includes land improvements (fences, ditches, drains, and so on); plant, machinery, and equipment purchases; and the construction of roads, railways, and the like, including schools, offices, hospitals, private residential dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. According to the 1993 SNA, net acquisitions of valuables are also considered capital formation."

China is running at 45% (quite high, but they have a lot of real estate and construction overcapacity)

India is at 30%, similar to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Nepal is at 23%. Bhutan at 46% (large Indian investment distortion).

Only Pakistan is dreadfully low at 12%....even Afghanistan is at 16%.

This is a very serious situation for Pakistan. It needs to be increased substantially to gather any long term momentum for the country. CPEC is not going to be enough on its own.

 

[Neemo neemo]

@MilSpec

Aren't you the guy who said India growing for 5% in next 35 years is 5*35=175% so not possible to be top 3 economy... (actually it is 3000% or just 30 times even corroborated by the economist/ IMF

At the same time, you say Pakistan will become 2 trillion $ economy from 250 Billion in 12 years...

Comes to about 19.5 % every year...

I will never take you seriously ever on economic matters...... perhaps a Somalian has more chance of convincing me than Orangzaib aka @Viper0011.

Seems you failed a lot in mAths....

And yes.... you said 12 years in the other thread and now when your idiotic logic is explained here, you now say 2035

R.I.P. Maths

Are charlie, stud the concept of percentage.
35*5% is not 175%

You don't just multiply 5 with 35. You multiply 5% increase per year to 35 which accounts more every year.

For example for a 100% economy
If first year it's 5 %
Next year it would be 5.25%
Second year it would be 5.50%
And so on.

So in the end you would be getting way more than 175%.

Learn before commenting.

 

[Tridibans]

View attachment 254693

Did he actually say this? WOW. That would be called miracle on the Indus river....along the lines of Han river miracle for South Korea.

I was looking at another important statistic....Gross Capital Formation as % of GDP. It is not the be all and end all, but it gives a good idea of how much growth is coming up, especially for developing countries.

Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) | Data | Table

"Gross fixed capital formation (formerly gross domestic fixed investment) includes land improvements (fences, ditches, drains, and so on); plant, machinery, and equipment purchases; and the construction of roads, railways, and the like, including schools, offices, hospitals, private residential dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. According to the 1993 SNA, net acquisitions of valuables are also considered capital formation."

China is running at 45% (quite high, but they have a lot of real estate and construction overcapacity)

India is at 30%, similar to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Nepal is at 23%. Bhutan at 46% (large Indian investment distortion).

Only Pakistan is dreadfully low at 12%....even Afghanistan is at 16%.

This is a very serious situation for Pakistan. It needs to be increased substantially to gather any long term momentum for the country. CPEC is not going to be enough on its own.

 

[Shamain]

I calculated the percentage increment needed for a figure of 250 billion to 2 trillion in 12 increments...

question is quite simple, as you seem to have doubts on 19% as the incremental rate, please enlighten us with the mathematical model, where you can provide a growth rate other than ~19% to go from 250 billion to 2 trillion in 12 intervals.

Dude i was just saying compounding rate method is applied to investment calculations where this rate that u are taking out is the return on ur investment. In this particular case of gdps idont know.

 

[Tridibans]

R.I.P. Maths

Are charlie, stud the concept of percentage.
35*5% is not 175%

You don't just multiply 5 with 35. You multiply 5% increase per year to 35 which accounts more every year.

For example for a 100% economy
If first year it's 5 %
Next year it would be 5.25%
Second year it would be 5.50%
And so on.

So in the end you would be getting way more than 175%.

Learn before commenting.

Arey bhai it was posted by our expert @Viper0011. .... Even a 10th class student knows 5%GDP for x years is not 5x....

 

[Neemo neemo]

Arey bhai it was posted by our expert @Viper0011. .... Even a 10th class student knows 5%GDP for x years is not 5x....

I don't believe he couldve made that big a mistake.

 

[Nilgiri]

Dude i was just saying compounding rate method is applied to investment calculations where this rate that u are taking out is the return on ur investment. In this particular case of gdps idont know.

GDP also compounds in similar fashion to an investment. Since if you are producing X amount one year, one would assume you would also produce X amount the next year (plus a little extra - thats called growth...."interest" if you will) So if return on investment is purely coming from interest (lets simplify it to that case)....doing the exact same calculation will give you the average growth of a GDP or GNP since its essentially the same concept of a "stock" or activity...incrementing as time goes on.

An economy is basically net consumption (or production) + net Investment + net govt expenditure + net exports.

The assumption of producing the same is of course a big one, a certain spending has to occur to also just maintain this level (known as counter-depreciation investment). Sometimes this investment is taken out of the overall investment. This is another topic of conversation.

But all of this basically compounds just like a simple investment.

 

[Viper0011.]

@MilSpec

Aren't you the guy who said India growing for 5% in next 35 years is 5*35=175% so not possible to be top 3 economy... (actually it is 3000% or just 30 times even corroborated by the economist/ IMF

At the same time, you say Pakistan will become 2 trillion $ economy from 250 Billion in 12 years...

Comes to about 19.5 % every year...

I will never take you seriously ever on economic matters...... perhaps a Somalian has more chance of convincing me than Orangzaib aka @Viper0011.

Seems you failed a lot in mAths....

And yes.... you said 12 years in the other thread and now when your idiotic logic is explained here, you now say 2035

You don't need to bring your boss Mil Spec into this, nor would he interject silly, like he used to, I think he's learned the lesson.

The convenient post you quoted me, was in response to one of you super mathematicians saying India will grow 300% when at the time and place where India is (a decade behind China in size and $$$), you'll start to slow down, like where China is today. At that time, the bigger population, albeit the strongest asset in terms of consumer market, becomes the weakest link as the government now has to provide for so many hundred of millions (1.2 billion people).

I don't know how much background you have with working with high growth markets, but I've been doing this for a long time. So you don't like my opinion (based on empirical economic research and experience) then you are welcome to skip the post and move on to the next topic. No need to put your fingers in a puddle of shit.

Now Pakistan, Nigeria and Mexico for example, have a whole different issue compared to India and China. These guys are where you were in 1995, so plenty of room to keep pouring in investments and the return and growth is there as EVERYthing need to be built systematically (thus calling these highest growth markets or BRICS +NMP, some have BRICS + 11 too, they add more countries which will grow, but the model isn't there yet).

So Pakistan's economy is above 250 billion. I don't know where you got that but its old information. The updated details are provided below. BTW, Mexico's economy is around 1.4 trillion and Pakistan is way bigger in market share and consumer base from Mexico in many ways. So its not an issue to beat that if they work right. Now if Mexico starts to use NAFTA right, they'll probably get ahead for a few years as the US is an investment goldmine for them like it is for India. Here's Pakistan's updated details:

GDP $1.1 trillion (nominal, 2015)[1]
[2]$928 billion (PPP, 2014)[3]
GDP rank 26th (PPP)
21st (nominal)
GDP growth
Increase 4.24%(2014)[4]
GDP per capita


$1,513 (nominal)[5]
$4,993 (PPP; 133rd; 2015)[3]
GDP by sector
agriculture: 25.1%, industry: 21.3%, services: 53.6% (2014 est.)
Inflation (CPI)
1.8% (July 2015)[6]
Population below poverty line
12.4% (2014)[7]

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Kashmir is to secure water and Afghanistan is to prevent another 1971. School yourself.

Maybe if you shut down terrorist outfit you can get both water and prevent 1971 without Kashmir and Afghan adventures.....

 

[Viper0011.]

Arey bhai it was posted by our expert @Viper0011. .... Even a 10th class student knows 5%GDP for x years is not 5x....

And I probably have more credentials than your chief economist. Now sit on a sharp Somnat type object and rotate till you feel it!!!

 

[Tridibans]

You don't need to bring your boss Mil Spec into this, nor would he interject silly, like he used to, I think he's learned the lesson.

The convenient post you quoted me, was in response to one of you super mathematicians saying India will grow 300% when at the time and place where India is (a decade behind China in size and $$$), you'll start to slow down, like where China is today. At that time, the bigger population, albeit the strongest asset in terms of consumer market, becomes the weakest link as the government now has to provide for so many hundred of millions (1.2 billion people).

I don't know how much background you have with working with high growth markets, but I've been doing this for a long time. So you don't like my opinion (based on empirical economic research and experience) then you are welcome to skip the post and move on to the next topic. No need to put your fingers in a puddle of shit.

Now Pakistan, Nigeria and Mexico for example, have a whole different issue compared to India and China. These guys are where you were in 1995, so plenty of room to keep pouring in investments and the return and growth is there as EVERYthing need to be built systematically (thus calling these highest growth markets or BRICS +NMP, some have BRICS + 11 too, they add more countries which will grow, but the model isn't there yet).

So Pakistan's economy is above 250 billion. I don't know where you got that but its old information. The updated details are provided below. BTW, Mexico's economy is around 1.4 trillion and Pakistan is way bigger in market share and consumer base from Mexico in many ways. So its not an issue to beat that if they work right. Now if Mexico starts to use NAFTA right, they'll probably get ahead for a few years as the US is an investment goldmine for them like it is for India. Here's Pakistan's updated details:

GDP $1.1 trillion (nominal, 2015)[1]
[2]$928 billion (PPP, 2014)[3]
GDP rank 26th (PPP)
21st (nominal)
GDP growth
Increase 4.24%(2014)[4]
GDP per capita


$1,513 (nominal)[5]
$4,993 (PPP; 133rd; 2015)[3]
GDP by sector
agriculture: 25.1%, industry: 21.3%, services: 53.6% (2014 est.)
Inflation (CPI)
1.8% (July 2015)[6]
Population below poverty line
12.4% (2014)[7]

WTF did I just read

And I probably have more credentials than your chief economist. Now sit on a sharp Somnat type object and rotate till you feel it!!!

True. We all are nursery kids and you are posted at FBI economic intelligence unit

BTW with your maths skill, even a 5th standard child will beat you....

 

[Sam.]

Arey bhai it was posted by our expert @Viper0011. .... Even a 10th class student knows 5%GDP for x years is not 5x....

He is a genius.

And I probably have more credentials than your chief economist. Now sit on a sharp Somnat type object and rotate till you feel it!!!

in taxi driving?

 

[Viper0011.]

2050 Predictions for India, Sri Lanka, China and the West by the Economist | Page 3



This was his post

Read that thread... he made a mockery of India hate in that thread.....

You keep writing stupidity, it will continue to come from my end as a response.

@Oscar @Irfan Baloch @Horus : gentlemen, watch the posts now, its morning time in India and our friends in India aren't getting calls from their US managers and clients just yet. So its ideal time to drink coffee and derail PDF threads. Please ban the ones who don't follow rules and troll with personals, instead of debating.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

You don't need to bring your boss Mil Spec into this, nor would he interject silly, like he used to, I think he's learned the lesson.

The convenient post you quoted me, was in response to one of you super mathematicians saying India will grow 300% when at the time and place where India is (a decade behind China in size and $$$), you'll start to slow down, like where China is today. At that time, the bigger population, albeit the strongest asset in terms of consumer market, becomes the weakest link as the government now has to provide for so many hundred of millions (1.2 billion people).

I don't know how much background you have with working with high growth markets, but I've been doing this for a long time. So you don't like my opinion (based on empirical economic research and experience) then you are welcome to skip the post and move on to the next topic. No need to put your fingers in a puddle of shit.

Now Pakistan, Nigeria and Mexico for example, have a whole different issue compared to India and China. These guys are where you were in 1995, so plenty of room to keep pouring in investments and the return and growth is there as EVERYthing need to be built systematically (thus calling these highest growth markets or BRICS +NMP, some have BRICS + 11 too, they add more countries which will grow, but the model isn't there yet).

So Pakistan's economy is above 250 billion. I don't know where you got that but its old information. The updated details are provided below. BTW, Mexico's economy is around 1.4 trillion and Pakistan is way bigger in market share and consumer base from Mexico in many ways. So its not an issue to beat that if they work right. Now if Mexico starts to use NAFTA right, they'll probably get ahead for a few years as the US is an investment goldmine for them like it is for India. Here's Pakistan's updated details:

GDP $1.1 trillion (nominal, 2015)[1]
[2]$928 billion (PPP, 2014)[3]
GDP rank 26th (PPP)
21st (nominal)
GDP growth
Increase 4.24%(2014)[4]
GDP per capita


$1,513 (nominal)[5]
$4,993 (PPP; 133rd; 2015)[3]
GDP by sector
agriculture: 25.1%, industry: 21.3%, services: 53.6% (2014 est.)
Inflation (CPI)
1.8% (July 2015)[6]
Population below poverty line
12.4% (2014)[7]

major mistakes. China's sudden slowdown is actually because of a major demographic shift, the one child policy kicking in and drastically increasing wages. India's pop slowdown will be more gradual. And if you have an 8 to 9 % economy growth you will double every 7 years or so, add 2 more years if it's in the 6 to 7 % range. So India becoming 300% in say 15 years should be pretty much a done deal.

100 doubles to 200 in 8 years and 400 in 16.