Pakistan’s economy to surpass $2 trillion by 2050

[yesboss]

@Horus I refuse to accept these charts prepared by people sat in new York or London. I would love somebody to explain to me few things. I am not a economist but I don't need to be psychologist to know when somebody is happy and when they are sad.

My point. Raft of reports show that there is less of extreme "bone" poverty in Pakistan then India. I was in Pakistan recently and there are cars, shops are full. House prices are ridicalous there is fast food joints on every corner. Bottom line there seems to be lots of cash floating around. A friend told me Karachi keeps getting illegal economic migrants from all over including India and Bangladesh.

Now we already know Pakistan has one of the lowest registered tax payers in the world. There is no doubt about this. Everybody knows that Pakistan is world leader in non paying tax payers. Now this means that minimal amount of the economy is recored because if it was then it would be taxed. So I ask this simple question. If people don't pay tax and it therefore is not recorded how the hell do the figures drawn by suits sitting in New York make any sense?

Let us take the case of Balochistan or FATA. I bet there are less than dozen tax payers in this huge tract of the country. However we know although these areas are poor but evidently most people there are better fed than the extreme poor of India.

So can somebody please tell me about these figures. Are these based on the fraudulent records kept by our federal government according to which only 100,000 Pakistan's are liable for tax or do they honestly reflect the reality on the ground?

Because I don't think what I read matches what I see and observe.

You may know about the recent "withholding tax" rate of 0.6% on banking transactions of more than Rs. 50,000 for non-filers(non-tax payers). It is being done to to bring into account the hidden economy and make people pay their taxes who are running huge businesses but either are not showing their true income or haven't even registered themselves as tax payers.To avoid this tax they have to show there true income or register themselves and pay their tax or pay the withholding tax. If gets done it would bring in account for much of the hidden economy . . . but traders are carrying on with there shutter downs and dharna's and withdrawing there money from banks and using other means of transactions (which won't work in the long run though i guess). But govt also need to bring the income-tax rates down given the energy crisis, other form of taxes and the overall poor condition for running businesses, govt should lure the non-tax payers.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

You may know about the recent "withholding tax" rate of 0.6% on banking transactions of more than Rs. 50,000 for non-filers(non-tax payers). It is being done to to bring into account the hidden economy and make people pay their taxes who are running huge businesses but either are not showing their true income or haven't even registered themselves as tax payers.To avoid this tax they have to show there true income or register themselves and pay their tax or pay the withholding tax. If gets done it would bring in account for much of the hidden economy . . . but traders are carrying on with there shutter downs and dharna's and withdrawing there money from banks and using other means of transactions (which won't work in the long run though i guess). But govt also need to bring the income-tax rates down given the energy crisis, other form of taxes and the overall poor condition for running businesses, govt should lure the non-tax payers.

Thanks for the reply but nobody has answered my question which is:-

(i) The official figures we get about Pakistan's GDP is this calculated per the official records therefore only showing the tiny part of the economy?

(ii) Or do these figures show the entire economy?


So the records just show top part of the iceberg with rest hidden?

 

[RoadRunner401]

Secular and educated pakistan is the only way to progress. Spending on education must go up by billions and you will see the returns on that investment after 15 to 20 years.

 

[Shamain]

19% compounded rate, actually....

Previously sandy345678 i hope u understand what exactly is a compound rate.
It applies to investments not gdps.

How u took out 19 pc here? By using figures 250bn and 2 trillion . Yes iknow how u did calculations but In no way ur calculation makes any sense here. Imean like seriously u wud use investment methods of calculations on gdp growth figures?

 

[MilSpec]

Previously sandy345678 i hope u understand what exactly is a compound rate.
It applies to investments not gdps.

How u took out 19 pc here? By using figures 250bn and 2 trillion . Yes iknow how u did calculations but In no way ur calculation makes any sense here. Imean like seriously u wud use investment methods of calculations on gdp growth figures?

interesting.

Please enlighten us with the rate that it will take for any GDP to go from 250 Billion to 2 trillion in 12 years. Let's see what you come up with?
Let's see your "sensible calculations"

 

[Shamain]

interesting.

Please enlighten us with the rate that it will take for any GDP to go from 250 Billion to 2 trillion in 12 years. Let's see what you come up with?
Let's see your "sensible calculations"

I am not talking abt that.
Ok tell me how u calculated the figure 19 pc? Using pv and fv method?

 

[Nilgiri]

2000/250 ^(1/(no. of years)).

If its 12, we get 1.19...i.e 19% growth required if you want to get to 2 trillion in 12 years.

 

[MilSpec]

I am not talking abt that.
Ok tell me how u calculated the figure 19 pc? Using pv and fv method?

I calculated the percentage increment needed for a figure of 250 billion to 2 trillion in 12 increments...

question is quite simple, as you seem to have doubts on 19% as the incremental rate, please enlighten us with the mathematical model, where you can provide a growth rate other than ~19% to go from 250 billion to 2 trillion in 12 intervals.

 

[Icewolf]

I calculated the percentage increment needed for a figure of 250 billion to 2 trillion in 12 increments...

question is quite simple, as you seem to have doubts on 19% as the incremental rate, please enlighten us with the mathematical model, where you can provide a growth rate other than ~19% to go from 250 billion to 2 trillion in 12 intervals.

Didn't I already tell you before MilSpec? That's not how you calculate GDP growth.

I already showed you the examples of India and China fool. Here you are back touting the same BS

 

[MilSpec]

Didn't I already tell you before MilSpec? That's not how you calculate GDP growth.

I already showed you the examples of India and China fool. Here you are back touting the same BS

Please educate us, what growth rate would be needed for going from 250 billion to 2 trillion in 12 years then... I am not projecting anything here.I just asking questions.

 

[Icewolf]

Please educate us, what growth rate would be needed for going from 250 billion to 2 trillion in 12 years then... I am not projecting anything here.I just asking questions.

I already showed you that if we were to calculate GDP using a exponential rate it would be way off. So a 19% compounded rate would be way wrong.

I showed you examples of USA, India and China in a ten year area.

Don't make me type it again!!

 

[MilSpec]

I already showed you that if we were to calculate GDP using a exponential rate it would be way off. So a 19% compounded rate would be way wrong.

I showed you examples of USA, India and China in a ten year area.

Don't make me type it again!!

I haven't said GDP growth rate, I specifically mentioned sustained average growth rate,

Yes you showed Examples of China and India, and the numbers were a mystery to you to, or atleast that's what I thought.

BTW- do we have a believer of 12 year 2 trillion in you too, if yes, please predict the expansion of money supply, exchange rate, and currency rate revisions to justify it.

And if you are in unison with the twelve year mark do you disagree with the projections made by the OP. Which assumptions and idicators were false.

 

[Nilgiri]

BTW- do we have a believer of 12 year 2 trillion in you too, if yes, please predict the expansion of money supply, exchange rate, and currency rate revisions to justify it.

And if you are in unison with the twelve year mark do you disagree with the projections made by the OP. Which assumptions and idicators were false.

He is saying earlier that there is a "high chance" Pakistan is "already" a "500 billion dollar" economy.

So growing 4 times to 2 trillion in 12 years (even that is 12% average growth per year) will not be a stretch for this guy...LOL

 

[Viper0011.]

Pakistan’s economy to surpass $2 trillion by 2050
September 07, 2015, 9:30 pm

Karachi: Pakistan’s economy is growing with a fast pace and it is projected to surpass two trillion dollars by 2050, a business leader said today.

This will happen between 2030-2035 per real estimates, but these estimates aren't being published because all forecasts are depending upon the most critical element for any business.....the availability of the electricity 24*7. The second you see this electric issue getting 80% resolved in the next two years, a lot of investment currently waiting, will be poured in from across the globe, and revised forecasts will be published. But the government MUST deliver on the electric issue, one of the MOST important factors I support these guys as this one issue is holding up an entire country's progress and needs to be fixed by mid - end of 2018.

2050 is too far, you'd have probably another 100+ million consumers being raised by then and Pakistan's population would be over 300+ million people for sure.

 

[Nilgiri]

he second you see this electric issue getting 80% resolved in the next two years, a lot of investment currently waiting, will be poured in from across the globe, and revised forecasts will be published. But the government MUST deliver on the electric issue, one of the MOST important factors I support these guys as this one issue is holding up an entire country's progress and needs to be fixed by mid - end of 2018.

I agree electricity (and supply of energy more generally and also transport) is a very important factor.

But education of the human capital is also very important....I do not see Pakistan investing here to the level it needs to sustain a 6 or 7 percent growth rate long term.

It will be an increasingly competitive world....and Pakistan is falling behind in education of its youth and basic skilling of its underemployed working class.