Pakistan will implode if the US does not leave Afghanistan

[PlanetWarrior]

Well sadly this war on terror seems to have benefitted India. With Pakistan and Afghanistan embroiled and weakened in their war on the Islamic extremists, this leaves India with space to progress without having those irritant Islamic extremists and nationalists buzzing on its ear like an irritant mosquito.

 

[Developereo]

United States did not gun run the next day of 9/11 but warned Taliban to simply hand over the suspects. Despite repeated warnings issued, Taliban refused and hence caused the war.

That is factually incorrect.

The Taliban offered to extradite OBL if the US provided proof. The US refused because, at the moment, it had no proof it could publicly disclose, allegedly for security reasons.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...-every-right-ties-kabul-us-2.html#post1407274

 

[Meengla]

Sir,

Do you think that Pakistan will survive without US Financial and Material Aid on the basis of the present precarious Economic situation prevailing in Pakistan?

Yes, I think Pakistan can survive. My belief in that is because, I really think, Pakistan's economy is fundamentally not all that bad if given right circumstances to flourish. The topmost is peace inside Pakistan. There are other members here who can tell you more but I think Pakistan was a pretty robust industrial country through the 60s, the service sector is not bad at all, the infrastructure, especially the roads, matches most 3rd world ones, and agriculture is robust enough.

But cutting off all American, Western, and Saudi aid could probably mean bankruptcy. So be it. When a country is really living off loans and aid it is essentially bankrupt anyway. Might as well declare it and start fresh.

These kinds of drastic measures are necessary because, so long as Pakistani governments (which included even Musharraf's one) get American $$ there can't be an internal consensus about fighting religious extremism because American aid make them look like 'puppets' thanks to a stupid media in Pakistan.

Americans leave after getting assurances from Pakistan AND India to leave the Afghans alone. It must be made clear to Pakistan that the fanatics must not be allowed to thrive and go to other countries and do their nasty things. Strict policing of travel in/out of Pakistan.

I think once the Pakistani governments are not seen as American 'puppets' they can really crush the religious fanatic cancer inside Pakistan. On the other hand, it is becoming more and more evident that even if the whole FATA gets cleaned up of terrorists the 'mainstream' Pakistan is becoming more and jihad-crazed, fanatic and dangerous for not only Pakistan but also for others.

 

[Hutchroy]

Yes, I think Pakistan can survive. My belief in that is because, I really think, Pakistan's economy is fundamentally not all that bad if given right circumstances to flourish. The topmost is peace inside Pakistan. There are other members here who can tell you more but I think Pakistan was a pretty robust industrial country through the 60s, the service sector is not bad at all, the infrastructure, especially the roads, matches most 3rd world ones, and agriculture is robust enough.

But cutting off all American, Western, and Saudi aid could probably mean bankruptcy. So be it. When a country is really living off loans and aid it is essentially bankrupt anyway. Might as well declare it and start fresh.

These kinds of drastic measures are necessary because, so long as Pakistani governments (which included even Musharraf's one) get American $$ there can't be an internal consensus about fighting religious extremism because American aid make them look like 'puppets' thanks to a stupid media in Pakistan.

Americans leave after getting assurances from Pakistan AND India to leave the Afghans alone. It must be made clear to Pakistan that the fanatics must not be allowed to thrive and go to other countries and do their nasty things. Strict policing of travel in/out of Pakistan.

I think once the Pakistani governments are not seen as American 'puppets' they can really crush the religious fanatic cancer inside Pakistan. On the other hand, it is becoming more and more evident that even if the whole FATA gets cleaned up of terrorists the 'mainstream' Pakistan is becoming more and jihad-crazed, fanatic and dangerous for not only Pakistan but also for others.

- Pakistan’s Internal and External Debt has risen by about USD 17 Billion in the period FY 0228-09 to 2009-10.

- This is due to the Budget Deficit and the Negative Balance of Foreign Trade after allowing for all Foreign Remittances and US Aid both Military and Economical as well s Loans from IMF, ADB, China, Saudi Arabia, Japan etc.

- In case of Bankruptcy all the sources of Foreign Aid and Loans will dry up and as such how would you expect Pakistan to rise up to its feet?

You will appreciate that neither the rampant Corruption will not end immediately nor are the Pakistani Elites going to start paying their new Taxes on Agriculture, the concept of which is non-existent and it will take may be a Decade to instil into the Pakistani “System”

The only avenue for Pakistan to improve economically is to reduce its Defence Spending but keep its sources of Foreign Assistance and then start reforms in Tax collection as well as reducing corruption.

Bankruptcy, to my thinking, will lead to large scale Internal strife in Pakistan thereby giving the Religious Fundamentalists AND the Terrorist Extremists all the chances of taking over Pakistan.

Just my two bits.

 

[SMC]

US aid is 500m dollar per year. For gods sake, we're losing much more per year due to WoT compared to that amount. Of course we'll survive. What you should be asking is how much stronger we'll come out of it.

 

[Hutchroy]

US aid is 500m dollar per year. For gods sake, we're losing much more per year due to WoT compared to that amount. Of course we'll survive. What you should be asking is how much stronger we'll come out of it.

Aid is not only the avenue for Pakistan obtaining Foreign Exchange. In addition there are Loans and Grants.

The main point is Pakistan cannot afford to declare Bankruptcy as all further loans will not be available as due Bankruptcy all Lenders to Pakistan - for the USD 58.412 External Debt as of 30-09-3010 - will face their Dues being "wiped out".

Now to begin the Task of "Developing" Pakistan will require Huge Amounts of Foreign Exchange.

How will Pakistan gain access to Foreign Funds?

 

[SMC]

You're right that we cannot afford to declare bankruptcy, but I am talking about just aid from US here, which was your question.

 

[khurasaan1]

Has not terrorism existed long before 9/11? Was it not Al Qaeda, sheltered by the Taliban, who planned from inside Afghanistan their global terrorist activities? Have you forgotten Al-khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, Nairobi and Kenyan embassy bombings and the USS Cole in Yemen? Were these not planned and orchestrated by Al Qaeda? Have you forgotten that all of these events transpired at a time when the US had strategically disengaged from the region, after the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan ended? When Al Qaeda attacked the US on 9/11 and killed nearly 3000 innocent Americans we acted in self defense to take control away from these ruthless terrorists. We are working closely with the government of Pakistan and the Pakistani military to curb terrorist activities in Pakistan as we are in Afghanistan. Rest assured we will eliminate them before our forces leave the region. And our cooperation and assistance to the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan will endure long after that. We will not turn our backs again.

Afghanistan under Taliban regime was a failed state where lawlessness and ruthless killing was a daily occurrence. Girls were deprived of education. Women were banned from venturing out of their homes even to buy daily groceries. If left unchecked do you not think it would not have spread to Pakistan as well?

We can be after the match cricket commentators and say who did wrong and who did right in supporting the US, but the fact remains that ruthless Taliban had their eyes on Pakistan and if not stopped would have imposed their rule of terror on Pakistan as well. Did we not recently see that in Swat region where Taliban got a chance to rule? Did we not see what they did to the beautiful Swat Valley? We will leave the region soon but before we go we will make sure along with our Pakistani & Afghan partners that the world is free of Taliban & Al Qaeda terror.

LCDR Bill Speaks
DET- United States Central Command
CENTCOM

Yes ure very right cuz these so called ruthless Talibans are focussing on Pakistan cuz they have lot of money coming from sky...come on man US is playing double/tripple game with Pakistan/world...training these terrorists and sending within Afghanistan , Pakistan China and Russia...trying to fool the world...using the religion as tool for their ambitions.....This is 21st century now...evrybody knowz the fooling gamez now...pplz are nomore kidz...try to sell ure business somewhere else....
these r some of my 2 centz but pplz know more than me...

 

[khurasaan1]

That is factually incorrect.

The Taliban offered to extradite OBL if the US provided proof. The US refused because, at the moment, it had no proof it could publicly disclose, allegedly for security reasons.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...-every-right-ties-kabul-us-2.html#post1407274

The OBL is US top secret agent.... why they should provide proof againt him they Used him to fool the whole world till now...

 

[Hutchroy]

You're right that we cannot afford to declare bankruptcy, but I am talking about just aid from US here, which was your question.

Loans from IMF and World bnk are "Indirect Loans" from the USA.

By various "Aid Routes" Pakistan does get about USD 1.5 to USD 2.5 Billion annually from the USA which I believe are considered as "Grants" i.e. they need not be re-paid.

 

[Meengla]

@Hutchroy,
None of the options are pretty. However, the status quo is leading to the destruction of Pakistan from inside.

Something radical needs to be done. I have now given up on an evolutionary-democracy approach because the fanatics don't believe in that--and their numbers have astounded me.

Countries can go bankrupt. It should be the 'reset' button. When there are no foreign bailouts. No handouts. No aid. No grants. Then Pakistanis will figure out an internal solution and, yes, that will eventually and inevitably lead to severe curtailment of corruption, anarchy, and hardship. But I would consider them the 'birth pangs' of a new Pakistan. A Pakistan where the State of Pakistan will be free to go after the fanatics inside Pakistan by depriving them of one very powerful excuse ('American Puppet') as an argument. A Pakistan where strict policing can check the export of these fanatic jihadis to other place.
If you read the 'Comments' section of NY Times for an article which was discussing Salman Taseer's assassination you will find that (at one point at least) the 3rd highest rated Comment (#29) was by a Pakistani named @A.Syed who says basically what I am saying here. I think I posted a link to the Comments some where in this blog.

 

[Speaker]

US going out of Afghanistan will be good for a lot of people. But the local Afghan govt seems to want them to stay on. Agreed that it is not a popular government, but that is the only credible voice we hear from there. As for Pakistan, it will definitely be better to publicly distance itself from this WoT while hunting down local extremists in the background. Believe me, that will help the government repair a lot of damage to its image, and animals like the TTP can be thwarted by vigilante justice. What is the worse US can do? Go for all out attacks on the border areas? They do that with "alleged" drone attacks anyway. Might as well do it with full intent. They don't have the money or patience to go for a full fledged war with Pakistan. As for their aid and loans, it seems a pittance going by the comments from other members.

Peace inside Pakistan, as Meengla put it, is most important. We also need to resolve the Kashmir issue once and for all - get the damn status quo finalized as international borders, and treat any issues on either side as internal issues and stay out. Once both countries get their mind out of each other, we can at least stay out of trouble, even if not friends.

 

[Hutchroy]

@Hutchroy,
None of the options are pretty. However, the status quo is leading to the destruction of Pakistan from inside.

Something radical needs to be done. I have now given up on an evolutionary-democracy approach because the fanatics don't believe in that--and their numbers have astounded me.

Countries can go bankrupt. It should be the 'reset' button. When there are no foreign bailouts. No handouts. No aid. No grants. Then Pakistanis will figure out an internal solution and, yes, that will eventually and inevitably lead to severe curtailment of corruption, anarchy, and hardship. But I would consider them the 'birth pangs' of a new Pakistan. A Pakistan where the State of Pakistan will be free to go after the fanatics inside Pakistan by depriving them of one very powerful excuse ('American Puppet') as an argument. A Pakistan where strict policing can check the export of these fanatic jihadis to other place.
If you read the 'Comments' section of NY Times for an article which was discussing Salman Taseer's assassination you will find that (at one point at least) the 3rd highest rated Comment (#29) was by a Pakistani named @A.Syed who says basically what I am saying here. I think I posted a link to the Comments some where in this blog.

Best of Luck with the Bankruptcy, Sir.

Governor Taseer’s Assassination proves that the Pakistani Security Services in General and the Armed forces in Particular are very heavily infiltrated by the "Religious Fundamentalists" and in addition the Political Parties are also heavily dependant on the "Religious Fundamentalist Political Parties".

I thus maintain that declaring Bankruptcy will deliver Pakistan to the Religious Fundamentalists and Jehadi Terrorists.

 

[divya]

The OBL is US top secret agent.... why they should provide proof againt him they Used him to fool the whole world till now...

yups in order to attack Afghanistan with no oil, no resources which was also backbone of Islamic world as you will claim next that the war was against Islam so i replied before hand.......

 

[Meengla]

@Hutchroy,
As I said, none of the options are pretty. Yet the status quo is not working at all. Not at all.
I also think, as @Speaker hints at, there is the 800 lbs gorilla in the room called Kashmir. Much of the reluctance of Pakistani military to go after these militants is the Kashmir issue. Indeed, in some NY Times Comments, a few perceptive Americans manage to point out that the road to Kabul lies through Kashmir.

So what can Pakistani army achieve if Pakistan has at least interim peace with India? I think the army can really beat the crap out of these religious fanatics as it did in Swat when it suited the military. This will be easier (not easy, btw) to do throughout Pakistan if the military and the ruling political parties are not delegitimized as 'American Puppet'. Whether we like it or not, it is the perception and vile propaganda which rules Pakistan. Too many 'educated' idiots still believe that Taseer himself committed some kind of Blasphemy, as an example.

About your assertion that there is widespread inroads by Jihadis in the security apparatuses, I am not sure that is correct. May be. May be not. But these fanatics are certainly sustained by the perception that the Pakistani military ('Busharraf') and the ruling parties are doing America's work.

Also, for Americans, the Al Qaida is decimated in Afghanistan. The original 9/11 plotters were successful by being in western countries. So it should be a task of counter-terrorism instead of carpet bombing.