Pakistan - Running out of Bargaining Chips

[Sinnerman108]

^^^ What a silly post !

This analysis will suffice for a lot of posts around here ....

Pakistan, with a population of 170 million with majority under 25 years of age.

There are 2.5 million Pakistanis working in Saudi Arabia.( 1.8 legal, and rest illegal which the saudis know about, but choose to ignore).

UAE has approx 2.7 million
Qatar, Bahrain, Oman 1.5 million.

That is a total of 6.7 million in the middle east alone.
Now assuming that out of 6.7, only 5 million are "bachelor" workers.
For every one worker there is a family of atleast 5 ( 2xParents, wife and kids)
usually there are siblings etc etc, but lets be modest.

5million X 5 = 25 million. which are directly FED from outside pakistan.
Not to mention that these people also SAVE money on top of expenditure and contribute to national savings.

Nearly same numbers can be assumed for Ex-Pat workers working in the North America, UK.
Thus we have a total of (25 X 2 = ) 50 million

from a population of 170, that is 29% of population which is directly FED from outside, and also saves money and contributes to the GDP.

The same Pakistan has projects such as
Riqo Diq with reserves upwards of 70 billion dollars.
Thar Coal reserves with promise of many years of power.

For projects like gas pipe lines, and east west routes there are billions of dollars begging to be earned.

Just Afghan transit trade, if done without political influence is worth a fortune.

Same Pakistan is undertaking a north south road infrastructure project to allow China direct access to warm arabian sea waters. Not to mention that routes have been chosen to allow the rest of the central Asian republics to use the road ways.

Even at a tax of 1 Rs / Kg of all goods, the sheer volume of trade is enough for a hefty GDP.

The same Pakistan is blessed with most fertile lands offering best cotton, fruit, and grains and guess what 70% of Pakistan's population is related to agriculture.

The above analysis is raw, but shows the direction.

All these politicians and self proclaimed liberals need to do is STOP STEALING the country's money, and just leave it alone.

India/ kashmir no problem. If we can continue on the projects we can buy the solution of our liking.

 

[Developereo]

OK, so I finally watched the videos instead of relying on the first few (Indian) posters' summary.

Wow!

Both Sherry Rahman and Riaz Khokhar would have my unconditional vote to run Pakistan. I can't express how relieved I am to see influential people in Pakistan with these view. Views that I agree with 100%.

Here's my summary of what I heard them say:

- Beggars can't be choosers. We have no leverage over US and shouldn't expect any favors. Even the so-called Afghanistan leverage is non-existant or time-limited (i.e. gone as soon as they leave Afghanistan).

- US is not a friend, nor an enemy. US looks out for US interests which favor India, and the imbalance will only get worse for Pakistan. For this reason, it is pure folly to ask for US mediation in anything -- least of all Kashmir. They will favor India.

- Pakistanis expect the top diplomats (President, Ambassador, etc.) to deliver miracles from the US, whereas India is building a solid grass roots lobby base in the US (85000 lobbyists). There are Indian workers in every single Congressperson's office in the US.

- India is focussing on their economy and, most importantly, intellectual capital with think tanks, universities, etc. Pakistan has nothing comparable.

Basically, they have a very realistic and mature view of the situation.

Definitely worth watching.

 

[jagjitnatt]

^^^^ Good post. I hope more and more Pakistanis agree with you. That is the only way forward for Pakistan

 

[Avatar]

OK, so I finally watched the videos instead of relying on the first few (Indian) posters' summary.

Wow!

Both Sherry Rahman and Riaz Khokhar would have my unconditional vote to run Pakistan. I can't express how relieved I am to see influential people in Pakistan with these view. Views that I agree with 100%.

Here's my summary of what I heard them say:

- Beggars can't be choosers. We have no leverage over US and shouldn't expect any favors. Even the so-called Afghanistan leverage is non-existant or time-limited (i.e. gone as soon as they leave Afghanistan).

- US is not a friend, nor an enemy. US looks out for US interests which favor India, and the imbalance will only get worse for Pakistan. For this reason, it is pure folly to ask for US mediation in anything -- least of all Kashmir. They will favor India.

- Pakistanis expect the top diplomats (President, Ambassador, etc.) to deliver miracles from the US, whereas India is building a solid grass roots lobby base in the US (85000 lobbyists). There are Indian workers in every single Congressperson's office in the US.

- India is focussing on their economy and, most importantly, intellectual capital with think tanks, universities, etc. Pakistan has nothing comparable.

Basically, they have a very realistic and mature view of the situation.

Definitely worth watching.

I have been forever trying to explain that US exiting from Afghanistan is NOT in Pakistan's interests.

Right now USA knows what exactly is going on. They are a part of the real game, and they know exactly what they are getting and what they aren't.

IMO Pakistan's greatest asset in today's environment is the leverage it enjoys over USA. Once they are out of Afghanistan, irrespective of whatever happens in Afghanistan, Pakistan will simply lose any leverage it has over USA. Economy indicators are already bad despite all the aid coming in, and things do not look like they are improving.

With this kind of inflation, the PKR will keep losing it's value to a point where Pakistanis will start prefering US$ which will lead to even greater crysis. At this point Pakistan cannot afford to lose US aid and cannot afford anymore investments in defence for it's own good.

 

[SMC]

^ There are other things to gain from US exit besides aid loss. The loss we've had to our growth and loss to our investment due to WoT is incomparable to any aid we got. Economic indicators will get better (and are getting better in fact), not get worse, if US leaves Afghanistan, contrary to what you suggest.

 

[SMC]

We shouldn't care whether we have any leverage over US or not. We've never had leverage over them, why does it matter now. Some of the guys here (mostly Indians) are acting like it's something new to make themselves feel better. If they don't mess with us then it's all good. We've lost a lot for the leverage that we have right now. Probably around $100B in losses.

Come the US exit from Afghanistan, the status quo in the region will change VERY quickly. The sooner that day comes, the better.

 

[SMC]

Its about how Pakistanis have always expected so much from Americans and Americans never delivered, because the relationship between Pakistan and America is a transactional relationship and not friendship.

It also explains why Pakistan is in the state it is today, and how reality is different from the way people perceive it, and why it is so.

Basically its about the huge difference that exists between the belief of Pakistanis and the reality.

Maybe there's a difference between your understanding of the reality and what the reality is?

 

[Developereo]

I have been forever trying to explain that US exiting from Afghanistan is NOT in Pakistan's interests.

I am not sure about that part. US presence in Afghanistan provides cover to India to do some funny business along our border (I know you guys will disagree).

That alone is reason enough to see the US leave Afghanistan.

Once they are out of Afghanistan, irrespective of whatever happens in Afghanistan, Pakistan will simply lose any leverage it has over USA.

I actually think China's rise will help Pakistan in more ways than one. Specifically, the US will be reluctant to completely abandon Pakistan to China's sphere of influence. I am not saying they will fight over Pakistan as some sort of prize, but we will retain some leverage.

The other possibility, of course, is that the US will try to neutralize Pakistan so it becomes irrelevant.

Economy indicators are already bad despite all the aid coming in, and things do not look like they are improving.

Agree. Pakistan can't have an independent foriegn policy until we become self-reliant. That was one of the main points in the videos.

 

[SMC]

One thing to notice is that Indians always make the worst type of predictions for Pakistan, and ones that are not realistic or extremely pessimistic. I am not referring to this topic only btw. So that should tell you what they wish for Pakistan. Don't fall for their typical "we want a stable Pakistan" crap. It's the typical bagal mein churi, moo pe ram ram stuff. Pakistanis should know that Indians want nothing but absolutely worst things for Pakistan.

Now to the point about US exit from Afghanistan. Well listen, we're already expecting 4-5% growth in 2011. Going upto around 6-7% by 2015. If US leaves the region, we're looking at at least 8% growth if not more. As mentioned, as soon as the US leaves, the status quo will change VERY quickly (if it doesn't change before that). So US leaving is very much in our interests, and the quicker the better. Their WoT has costed many lives and a lot of growth loss.

 

[killeragent]

One thing to notice is that Indians always make the worst type of predictions for Pakistan, and ones that are not realistic or extremely pessimistic. I am not referring to this topic only btw. So that should tell you what they wish for Pakistan. Don't fall for their typical "we want a stable Pakistan" crap. It's the typical bagal mein churi, moo pe ram ram stuff. Pakistanis should know that Indians want nothing but absolutely worst things for Pakistan.

Now to the point about US exit from Afghanistan. Well listen, we're already expecting 4-5% growth in 2011. Going upto around 6-7% by 2015. If US leaves the region, we're looking at at least 8% growth if not more. As mentioned, as soon as the US leaves, the status quo will change VERY quickly (if it doesn't change before that). So US leaving is very much in our interests, and the quicker the better. Their WoT has costed many lives and a lot of growth loss.

Leaving the Indian Bashing aside, let me tell you practical point you missed.
With US out KL bill of 7.5 Billions (3% of your economy) would be over.

Moreover there would less offerings of Hi-Tech arsenal.

Thirdly, alot of money is needed to cover up spendings and fill up the arsenal again spent during WOT.


Add these factors and re-new your growth projections

 

[SMC]

That's 7.5 billion over 5 years. 1.5 billion per year. And uptil now, it's 500 million per year. How would our economy would be over with that loss? Furthermore, clearly you didn't read post #35 by me. Yes, we'd lose the aid. However, at this point, it's incomparable to all the growth and investment we've due to WoT. And since we wouldn't be in WoT, we wouldn't need to spend anything on it either. That's one way we've lost a lot of money. Quite simple really. So what we gain is much more (actually infinitely more) than what we lose.

 

[killeragent]

That's 7.5 billion over 5 years. 1.5 billion per year. And uptil now, it's 500 million per year. How would our economy would be over with that loss? Furthermore, clearly you didn't read post #35 by me. Yes, we'd lose the aid. However, at this point, it's incomparable to all the growth and investment we've lost from WoT. And since we wouldn't be in WoT, we wouldn't need to spend anything on it either. That's one way we've lost a lot of money. Quite simple really. So what we gain is much more (actually infinitely more) than what we lose.

Good to see your optimistic attitude, but this doesn't change reality.
I am giving honest view.
How come you would recover so fast, after the war?
Wouldn't pakistan build its infra again that suffered because of war.


I am saying that after this war finishes, you need a hell amount of money to fill your stocks again.

Didn't jana once said that now pakistan from inside is taking loans from islamic countries for every bullet they fire in war.


Be realistic, economy takes time to grow.

India's rise was because of reforms in 1993 and u saw results coming out after 2003.


Rest your wish, whatever floats your boat mate.

 

[SMC]

Mate, let's make this clear from the outset. What you're referring to as "reality" is in fact what YOU THINK is the reality. I just wanted to get that out of the way since I see this being used all the time.

Now why would we recover from the war very fast? Well to start with, it hasn't caused any trouble to the infrastructure. The main reason for drop in growth and investment is in fact WoT. It goes away, you solve probably half of the problems WRT to growth. Thus it will jump very quickly. I am talking about growth rate only here btw.

Now as far as India is concerned, you're talking about two completely different scenarios.

 

[Storm Force]

How can a Country grow at 8% or even 6% with any modern industrial base.

There is nothing in Pakistan in terms of technology or engineering or even a rising middle class to help boost growth.

The biggest handicap is their military grip on everything. There Army decides everything from Politics to economics and Taxes to internal affairs...

They are a rudderless ship since 1947 and need GUIDANCE and SUPPORT from the big nations and that includes India being the regional super power.

BUT AS ALWAYS PAKISTANS PRIDE WILL BE HURT to accept any ideas any guidance from the Country that is growing annually into a future economic monster

 

[LeGenD]

One thing to notice is that Indians always make the worst type of predictions for Pakistan, and ones that are not realistic or extremely pessimistic. I am not referring to this topic only btw. So that should tell you what they wish for Pakistan. Don't fall for their typical "we want a stable Pakistan" crap. It's the typical bagal mein churi, moo pe ram ram stuff. Pakistanis should know that Indians want nothing but absolutely worst things for Pakistan.

Now to the point about US exit from Afghanistan. Well listen, we're already expecting 4-5% growth in 2011. Going upto around 6-7% by 2015. If US leaves the region, we're looking at at least 8% growth if not more. As mentioned, as soon as the US leaves, the status quo will change VERY quickly (if it doesn't change before that). So US leaving is very much in our interests, and the quicker the better. Their WoT has costed many lives and a lot of growth loss.

Go through this analysis. It shows the grim picture of Pakistan's economy by the end of 2010.

Do not blame everything on US actions and policies. This typical mentality will lead us to no where, and we would end up harming ourselves instead.

And do not fall for these shiny GDP growth figures. We are facing double digit inflation and our external debt has reached 55 billion USD.

The current economic situation is so dire than our government has decided to even cut the size of the cabinet, which was never expected from them. However, still a good move and it should have been done a long time ago.

We need to put a full stop to our typical blame-game mentality and start doing something in order to save Pakistan.