Pakistan has more nuclear warheads than India: report

[El Sidd]

India farts nukes

You should really Go through the thread bro.

The Indian Machine is literally farting nuclear waste with Zero Storage capacity.

If it was me I would have a nuclear waste border with India. They are a Menace. A Fassad on Earth. The yajooj and majooj. The dajjali Fitna.

 

[LeGenD]

The guy commenting on expert reports here is called nadeem Salik and is not an expert him self...

Plus all he is saying is that he does not know and arguing neither does any one else... which is true

But even taking his worst estimates of 7 10 kg plutonium and presuming 4 kg per warhead .. each khushab plant is making 2 warheads per year.... since khushab alone has 4 plants I don't know how you calculated pakistan making 2 warheads per year

An expert is not necessarily a scientist:

"Brigadier Naeem Salik (retired) is a senior fellow at the Center for International Strategic Studies. Before his retirement from the Pakistani military, he served as director of arms control and disarmament affairs in the Strategic Plans Division, the secretariat of Pakistan’s National Command Authority."

He has served in SPD which is the agency responsible for protection of nuclear and strategic assets in Pakistan. It is reasonable to expect SPD officers to be well-informed about Pakistani nuclear matters on average.

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Production output depends upon what kind of warheads we are developing because HEU consumption will vary accordingly.

From the referred article:

"Pakistan’s capacity to produce HEU-based warheads is usually estimated to be about four weapons per year and, therefore, it could produce around 40 additional HEU-based warheads over the next decade. Currently, Pakistan has four operational plutonium production reactors at its Khushab complex. Assuming the reactors run at 60 percent capacity, each would produce slightly less than two weapons’ worth of plutonium per year, toward a total output of around 36 kilograms of plutonium—six warheads at 6 kilograms per warhead—per year. This suggests that Pakistan could produce up to 60 plutonium warheads over the next decade."

Big if still...

"Compared to the thousands of nuclear tests conducted by great powers during the Cold War, India and Pakistan have only conducted six tests each. Neither has enough data to develop highly sophisticated weapon designs requiring lesser amounts of fissile material. It is, therefore, highly unlikely that the estimated size of Indian or Pakistani arsenals comport with reality. Another problem is that these studies, while categorizing India’s entire substantial stockpile of HEU as potential fuel for India’s nuclear-powered submarines, do not address Pakistan’s future HEU needs for naval propulsion. Pakistan is striving to develop the naval leg of its nuclear triad, which would ultimately include naval vessels propelled by nuclear fuel."

 

[Mrc]

An expert is not necessarily a scientist:

"Brigadier Naeem Salik (retired) is a senior fellow at the Center for International Strategic Studies. Before his retirement from the Pakistani military, he served as director of arms control and disarmament affairs in the Strategic Plans Division, the secretariat of Pakistan’s National Command Authority."

He has served in SPD which is the agency responsible for protection of nuclear and strategic assets in Pakistan. It is reasonable to expect SPD officers to be well-informed about Pakistani nuclear matters on average.

---

Production output depends upon what kind of warheads we are developing because HEU consumption will vary accordingly.

From the referred article:

"Pakistan’s capacity to produce HEU-based warheads is usually estimated to be about four weapons per year and, therefore, it could produce around 40 additional HEU-based warheads over the next decade. Currently, Pakistan has four operational plutonium production reactors at its Khushab complex. Assuming the reactors run at 60 percent capacity, each would produce slightly less than two weapons’ worth of plutonium per year, toward a total output of around 36 kilograms of plutonium—six warheads at 6 kilograms per warhead—per year. This suggests that Pakistan could produce up to 60 plutonium warheads over the next decade."

Big if still...

"Compared to the thousands of nuclear tests conducted by great powers during the Cold War, India and Pakistan have only conducted six tests each. Neither has enough data to develop highly sophisticated weapon designs requiring lesser amounts of fissile material. It is, therefore, highly unlikely that the estimated size of Indian or Pakistani arsenals comport with reality. Another problem is that these studies, while categorizing India’s entire substantial stockpile of HEU as potential fuel for India’s nuclear-powered submarines, do not address Pakistan’s future HEU needs for naval propulsion. Pakistan is striving to develop the naval leg of its nuclear triad, which would ultimately include naval vessels propelled by nuclear fuel."

Yeah but where did u get 2 warheads per year from????
Plus also note it's all guess work

If any thing assume exactly opposite what spd guy is telling you... caz he will never say the truth

 

[LeGenD]

Yeah but where did u get 2 warheads per year from????
Plus also note it's all guess work

If any thing assume exactly opposite what spd guy is telling you... caz he will never say the truth

As I pointed out in my previous post, production rate per year depends upon the design (and yield) of nukes in relation to amount of plutonium (or uranium) among other factors.

Decent explanation in this report:

"Estimating the size of the Pakistani nuclear warhead stockpile is fraught with uncertainty. A frequent mistake is to derive the estimate directly from the amount of weapons-grade fissile material produced. As of late 2015, the International Panel on Fissile Materials estimated that Pakistan had an inventory of approximately 3100 kg of weapon-grade (90% enriched) highly enriched uranium (HEU) and at least 190 kg of weapon-grade plutonium (International Panel on Fissile Materials 2015: 16, 25, 27). This material is theoretically enough to produce 204–306 warheads, assuming that each warhead’s solid core uses either 12–18 kg of weapon-grade HEU or 4–6 kg of plutonium.2

However, calculating stockpile size based solely on fissile material inventory is an incomplete methodology that tends to produce inflated warhead estimates. Instead, warhead estimates must take into account several factors, including: the amount of weapon-grade fissile material produced, warhead design proficiency, warhead production rates, numbers of operational nuclear-capable launchers, how many of those launchers are dual capable, nuclear strategy, and statements by government officials.

At their outset, estimates must take into account that not all of a country’s fissile material ends up in warheads. Like other nuclear weapon states, Pakistan probably maintains a reserve of fissile material. Moreover, Pakistan simply lacks enough nuclear-capable launchers to accommodate 200–300 warheads; furthermore, all of Pakistan’s launchers are thought to be dual capable, which means that some of them, especially the shorter-range systems, presumably are assigned to nonnuclear missions as well. Finally, official statements often refer to “warheads” and “weapons” interchangeably, without making it clear whether it is the number of launchers or the warheads assigned to them that are being discussed."

Link: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00963402.2016.1241520

Prevalent estimates 'assume' production of 4 nuclear warheads per year in the context of Pakistan but this isn't true as pointed out by Brigadier Naeem Salik. I narrowed it down to 2 nuclear warheads per year; could be 3 at most.

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I don't think that an SPD guy would raise his voice to dispel prevalent estimations of growth of Pakistani nuclear arsenal out of the blue. Not everybody is into deceiving others in these matters. Truth is not necessarily as exciting as estimations.

 

[Hamza913]

I dont see any need of nuclear warheads

They are excellent at maintaining peace by deterring the enemy from ever attacking us.

 

[Mrc]

As I pointed out in my previous post, production rate per year depends upon the design (and yield) of nukes in relation to amount of plutonium (or uranium) among other factors.

Decent explanation in this report:

"Estimating the size of the Pakistani nuclear warhead stockpile is fraught with uncertainty. A frequent mistake is to derive the estimate directly from the amount of weapons-grade fissile material produced. As of late 2015, the International Panel on Fissile Materials estimated that Pakistan had an inventory of approximately 3100 kg of weapon-grade (90% enriched) highly enriched uranium (HEU) and at least 190 kg of weapon-grade plutonium (International Panel on Fissile Materials 2015: 16, 25, 27). This material is theoretically enough to produce 204–306 warheads, assuming that each warhead’s solid core uses either 12–18 kg of weapon-grade HEU or 4–6 kg of plutonium.2

However, calculating stockpile size based solely on fissile material inventory is an incomplete methodology that tends to produce inflated warhead estimates. Instead, warhead estimates must take into account several factors, including: the amount of weapon-grade fissile material produced, warhead design proficiency, warhead production rates, numbers of operational nuclear-capable launchers, how many of those launchers are dual capable, nuclear strategy, and statements by government officials.

At their outset, estimates must take into account that not all of a country’s fissile material ends up in warheads. Like other nuclear weapon states, Pakistan probably maintains a reserve of fissile material. Moreover, Pakistan simply lacks enough nuclear-capable launchers to accommodate 200–300 warheads; furthermore, all of Pakistan’s launchers are thought to be dual capable, which means that some of them, especially the shorter-range systems, presumably are assigned to nonnuclear missions as well. Finally, official statements often refer to “warheads” and “weapons” interchangeably, without making it clear whether it is the number of launchers or the warheads assigned to them that are being discussed."

Link: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00963402.2016.1241520

Prevalent estimates 'assume' production of 4 nuclear warheads per year in the context of Pakistan but this isn't true as pointed out by Brigadier Naeem Salik. I narrowed it down to 2 nuclear warheads per year; could be 3 at most.

---

I don't think that an SPD guy would raise his voice to dispel prevalent estimations of growth of Pakistani nuclear arsenal out of the blue. Not everybody is into deceiving others in these matters. Truth is not necessarily as exciting as estimations.

Boss worse scenario is 8kg per plutonium reactor .... 6 mg per warhead gives you 6 war heads with 4 plants only function 40 percent of time .... that leaves equal or more capable uranium unaccounted for...

So where did you get capabilities of making 2 warheads per year as per your original post????.


Do u even read what u post or u just a copy paste machine....


I remember u are the same guy who wanted to destroy sea skimmer in Arabian sea using oth radars....


Kindly atleast try to read what you post before destroying threads

Pakistan have the capacity to develop 2 nuclear weapons per year, at most.

This is your original post which persumes at best case pak can produce 2 warheads per year....

At most... meaning at best

 

[Tom M]

Smart Tom.....real name gungadin chowsik but afraid people will make fun of him so He uses his call centre name Tom....

@waz If this is not a classic example of getting personal, then what is ???

 

[El Sidd]

Yeah but where did u get 2 warheads per year from????
Plus also note it's all guess work

If any thing assume exactly opposite what spd guy is telling you... caz he will never say the truth

How many do you want?

 

[waz]

@waz If this is not a classic example of getting personal, then what is ???

Deleted and refracted.

 

[Trango Towers]

@waz If this is not a classic example of getting personal, then what is ???

When you abuse Pakistan it's ok.....When we abuse you its run to the mods.... how Indian of you @waz

 

[Mrc]

How many do you want?

I have 3 countries in mind

 

[El Sidd]

I have 3 countries in mind

Name them

 

[Tom M]

When you abuse Pakistan it's ok.....When we abuse you its run to the mods.... how Indian of you @waz

As if you don't start abusing India in any of the threads, huh ?? Look buddy, writing comments about each others nation is a different thing, because we have a lot of difference of opinion w.r.t our nations.

But getting personal is another thing. Hope you got the point.

 

[Mrc]

Name them

Maldives Sri Lanka and Nepal

 

[El Sidd]

Maldives Sri Lanka and Nepal

That many we have. Stop worrying