I attended a World Bank lecture several years ago, and the lecturer was very candid that most of their economic measurements with regards to Pakistan do not hold. Reason being it's undocumented black economy which is estimated to be equal if not greater than the actual economy, to the outsider it seems like a failed economy but if you go to the people level it's a thriving economy, new luxury housing projects popping up, record number of cars being bought, booming real estate and consumer markets etc.
We asked about comparisons with the then Greek Debt crisis of 2007-8 where Greece was unable to repay loans. He said in terms of Greece they have been scratching their heads as there are no easy fixes but Pakistan's problems can be fixed with the right management, if the black economy is documented and policies adopted for local growth things will turnover really quick. And this optimism is at a time when CPEC wasn't started and impact of terrorism was at it's peak.
http://tns.thenews.com.pk/dynamics-black-economy/#.WxDuFkiFPIU
Also a weaker PKR vs Dollar is regrettable and drives up inflation but if it is kept at this level and policies managed right it will also mean Pakistani exports have the potential to be cheaper than China (RMB artificially undervalued), India and Bangladesh. So in the long run it could be utilized for a plus.
And for a reminder to every one who think our low foreign currency reserve situation is really bad, when Pakistan tested it's nukes in 1998 we had less than $400m. If we can go through and recover from that without sacrificing our defence needs than we can do it again.
For the big ticket purchases, they are done on credit financing, Pakistan does not need to pay it all upfront. A budget allocation is made to pay it over a number of years. Sovereignty and defence are upmost priorities, if the leaders decide their is a urgent need they can still make big purchases, will put a strain on the budgets but it will not shatter the economy as what is being proposed.
Pakistan had roughly a dozen F-104s but they maintained a huge psychological impact during the war, the possibility of their presence was a huge risk factor for InAF planners. PAF at the moment has it's hands full with too many things but if it needs to it can request for purchase of a small number of high performance air superiority optimized fighters to be employed in CAP the same way as the F-104s. It's a matter of how long PAF can hold out, longer it waits the options get better. And despite whats being touted the edge InAF enjoyed is downgraded by their operational issues, so there is room for waiting. Compound that with the fact that Pakistan's tactical nukes have made war too costly for any aggressor.
Buying weapons is easy maintaining them in time of conflict is difficult. Pakistan has been at a state of war over the last couple of years and it's admirable that it's procurement focus is on sustainable platforms where it can endure a conflict of attrition. Case being the huge F-16 supply reserves and availability of spares from Turkey, large AMRAAM order compared to fleet size, JF-17s fully sustainable with local munitions and spares etc. There is a room for a third platform which is a matter of a few years. US doesnt have restrictions on Pakistani F-16s as it once had as they are no longer the top of the line variants with restrictive technologies, it's only a matter of price and spares are unrestricted from third parties.
Compare that with India, its procurement methods have created nightmares, and has a war time reserve down to just 10 days, aircraft availability will go down drastically as it's platforms are maintenance heavy and multi sourced.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/sto...upply-shortfall-cag-report-1025676-2017-07-21
Saudia and other rich Arab states have bought the best possible platforms money can buy but since not much attention paid to capacity development and short cuts taken in buying off the shelf, in time of conflict amongst them self or against Israel it is unlikely they will get the spares from US to sustain them for more than a few days. Case being how Saudia has turned to Chinese UCAV use in Yemen, as it was too expensive and unsustainable to use fighters. Same for how UAE decided to stick to it's M2ks and squeeze their operational lives in Yemen.
Sonic booms over Amritsar incident, putting opponent in panic. There is also the incident of a Gnat landing to avoid a F-104 but was caught by locals.
We asked about comparisons with the then Greek Debt crisis of 2007-8 where Greece was unable to repay loans. He said in terms of Greece they have been scratching their heads as there are no easy fixes but Pakistan's problems can be fixed with the right management, if the black economy is documented and policies adopted for local growth things will turnover really quick. And this optimism is at a time when CPEC wasn't started and impact of terrorism was at it's peak.
http://tns.thenews.com.pk/dynamics-black-economy/#.WxDuFkiFPIU
Also a weaker PKR vs Dollar is regrettable and drives up inflation but if it is kept at this level and policies managed right it will also mean Pakistani exports have the potential to be cheaper than China (RMB artificially undervalued), India and Bangladesh. So in the long run it could be utilized for a plus.
And for a reminder to every one who think our low foreign currency reserve situation is really bad, when Pakistan tested it's nukes in 1998 we had less than $400m. If we can go through and recover from that without sacrificing our defence needs than we can do it again.
For the big ticket purchases, they are done on credit financing, Pakistan does not need to pay it all upfront. A budget allocation is made to pay it over a number of years. Sovereignty and defence are upmost priorities, if the leaders decide their is a urgent need they can still make big purchases, will put a strain on the budgets but it will not shatter the economy as what is being proposed.
Pakistan had roughly a dozen F-104s but they maintained a huge psychological impact during the war, the possibility of their presence was a huge risk factor for InAF planners. PAF at the moment has it's hands full with too many things but if it needs to it can request for purchase of a small number of high performance air superiority optimized fighters to be employed in CAP the same way as the F-104s. It's a matter of how long PAF can hold out, longer it waits the options get better. And despite whats being touted the edge InAF enjoyed is downgraded by their operational issues, so there is room for waiting. Compound that with the fact that Pakistan's tactical nukes have made war too costly for any aggressor.
Buying weapons is easy maintaining them in time of conflict is difficult. Pakistan has been at a state of war over the last couple of years and it's admirable that it's procurement focus is on sustainable platforms where it can endure a conflict of attrition. Case being the huge F-16 supply reserves and availability of spares from Turkey, large AMRAAM order compared to fleet size, JF-17s fully sustainable with local munitions and spares etc. There is a room for a third platform which is a matter of a few years. US doesnt have restrictions on Pakistani F-16s as it once had as they are no longer the top of the line variants with restrictive technologies, it's only a matter of price and spares are unrestricted from third parties.
Compare that with India, its procurement methods have created nightmares, and has a war time reserve down to just 10 days, aircraft availability will go down drastically as it's platforms are maintenance heavy and multi sourced.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/sto...upply-shortfall-cag-report-1025676-2017-07-21
Saudia and other rich Arab states have bought the best possible platforms money can buy but since not much attention paid to capacity development and short cuts taken in buying off the shelf, in time of conflict amongst them self or against Israel it is unlikely they will get the spares from US to sustain them for more than a few days. Case being how Saudia has turned to Chinese UCAV use in Yemen, as it was too expensive and unsustainable to use fighters. Same for how UAE decided to stick to it's M2ks and squeeze their operational lives in Yemen.
Sonic booms over Amritsar incident, putting opponent in panic. There is also the incident of a Gnat landing to avoid a F-104 but was caught by locals.
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