niaz
PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2006
- Messages
- 5,164
- Reaction score
- 211
- Country
- Location
Thəorətic Muslim;4290499 said:The enormous size of WAPDA is a concern. But it is not the only one.
The current Pak Energy policy has focused on burning oil and making dams. Both which are expensive and the former being undesirable.
Pak needs to bring in people with engineering degrees to plot a course forward. The world is switching over to renewables and Pak is living in the stone age busy making nukes.
Whats the point in staying in the stone age? Just becase PTI said Naya Pakistan doesnt mean Nawaz cant change Pakistan.
Pakistan problems are mainly four:
1-Lack of funds. With a small tax base and expenditure far exceeding revenue receipts, there is not much left over for the state-owned power projects. Private sector investment is not forthcoming because of law & order situation. That is why no progress on Thar Coal.
2-Overstaffing & inefficient management of public sector entities such as WAPDA which cannot fire excess staff because of political backing.
3-Theft of electricity & even gov’t offices not paying their utility bills. Can’t anyone understand the simple fact that if you use electricity you have got to pay for it!
4-This follows from point number 3. We import fuel to produce power and the cost of electricity to consumer must reflect its production cost; additionally cost of stolen electricity has to borne by the bill paying customers else power company will go bankrupt.
The poster above has assumed that if we go to alternate sources of energy, our problems will be solved. Far from it.
Hon Sir,
Power engineers all over the world have been analysing different ways of generating power for decades. In a capitalist society, stress is on increasing profit, thus in every large power company there is Research & Economic Analysis section ( it may be called by different name) whose job is to constantly examine ways & means to produce cheap & clean energy.
United States is without doubt one of the most advanced countries in the world and break down of the electricity production as of is as under:
Coal 49%, Natural gas 21%, Nuclear 19%, Hydroelectric 6%, Oil 2%, Wind 1%, Geo thermal 0.4%, Solar 0.01%, Other 1.6%
Production is dictated by many factors such as presence of a strong anti-nuclear lobby, or lack of suitable hydro power locations, but by & large it is determined by pure economics. One can see that about 76% (coal+ gas + oil) of the power is generated by conventional thermal power plants.
Hydro power is the cheapest source of electricity. In a paper published in the International Journal of Arts & Science 3(9): 125-143(2010) Adesh Sharma compares hydroelectric & coal fired power plants costs in India. Projected cost of a 1000 MW hydroelectric plant is IRs 550-billion versus 450-billion for a coal fired plant. However levelized costs (capital +fuel+ operating costs) are IRs 1.86 per KWH for hydro & IRs 2.86 for coal fired electricity. Thus in Indian environment, hydro power is about 1/3 cheaper than thermal power.
Now let us compare the costs of electricity generated by other sources. According to data available with the Royal Academy of Engineers UK. Cost of generating electricity from different sources is:
Gas-fired CCGT 2.2 pence per KWH
Nuclear fission plant 2.3 pence per KWH
Coal-fired pulverised-fuel (PF) steam plant 2.5 pence per KWH
Coal-fired circulating fluidized bed (CFB) steam plant 2.6 pence per KWH
Coal-fired integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC): 3.2 pence per KWH.
Onshore wind farm: 3.7 pence per KWH
Offshore wind farm: 5.5 pence per KWH
Wave and marine technologies: 6.6 pence per KWH
From this we conclude that in the UK, there is not much difference between cost of power generation between nuclear & thermal sources. Nuclear is however a lot cleaner for CO2 emissions. This energy is still cheaper than Wind farm & Tidal power. Nuclear power costs however ignore cost of decommissioning a nuclear power plant and if that was also taken into account, thermal power comes out the winner.
Wind generated electricity is more expensive. Additionally, let us not forget that the windiest places are more often far away from where electricity is needed most, so the costs of building transmission lines is high. Secondly, the wind doesn’t blow all the time, so power utilities have found that in order to balance out the variable load from wind they have to invest in keeping fossil-fuel-burning plants on standby. When those plants are not running at full capacity they are not as efficient. Most calculations of the cost of wind power do not take into account the costs per kWh of keeping fossil plants on standby or running at reduced loads. Real cost of Wind power is thus far higher than thermal power.
Solar energy is the most expensive way of generating electricity, however this is the greenest form of energy one can produce. Even though cost of solar panels has come down quite a lot in recent years, it is still very expensive compared to thermal sources. According to the Solar Market Research & Analysis cost in March 2012 was 15.15 cents or about 9.5 pence per KWH; more than 3 times the cost of thermal power.
Solar Electricity Prices | Solarbuzz
I have ignored bio fuels mainly because increased use of biodiesel & ethanol has caused a substantial increase in food prices.
Nawaz Sharif claims that they will burn bagasse from the sugar mills to produce electricity. Bagasse fibre is the left over after the sugar cane has been crushed and all juice extracted. It has a heating value of about 3,000 BTU per pound.
Anyone who has visited a Sugar Mill will know that bagasse is currently used to supplement the fuel for the boilers that generate heat for concentrating the juice to make brown sugar. Hence if you use bagasse to make electricity, it will be replaced by imported furnace oil and cost of sugar production will go up. Similarly if we use cow dung to produce biogas and electricity; we have to provide alternate fuel to the poor farmers who burn dried cow dung as fuel for cooking.
I have also ignored Fuel Cell as the technology is still in embryonic stage. It is clear that if we want cheap electricity and we don’t want to make Kalabagh Dam, there is little option except to go for the thermal or nuclear power and for either source there is a cost. You can't have anything for nothing.
Of course we can live without electricity as I did in my child hood because my Chak was not electrified; but believe me that was quite uncomfortable.