Pakistan Current Account Records a Huge Surplus of $424 million in July 2020

[Counter-Errorist]

I disagree, I think they made a bad calculation, in their view they wanted to achieve something. This is why I say when people talk about ridding us of corruption, incompetence will continue to rear its ugly head, and it’s just as bad if not worse at times.

Also as I said, IK supported this at face value at the time too, he basically took credit saying that the government was forced to strengthen pkr and make things cheaper because of our political pressure.

We are not led by competent people, while it’s a travesty, incompetence and stupidity isn’t illegal and calling it treason is perhaps too far imo.

What they wanted to achieve was bigger numbers for their account balance, and maintaining power. Running the country was an afterthought. Look at the IPP contracts, PIA, Steel Mills, and so many institutions designed from ground up to be monetized and power the political machinery rather than benefit the country or its people.

 

[Counter-Errorist]

There is no mafia. Price thek ha sugar and wheat dono ki. Sugarcane ki kasht waisay ban kardain ussay wheat and oil seeds ki production barhay gi

The price trend alone doesn't give the full picture.

Sugar mills hold payment of farmers for months on end, making money off of deposit interests, often blackmailing them into price reductions - while at the same time blackmailing or buying our government officials to look the other way.

Look at the recent IK interview with Kamran Khan where he details the dirty dealings of the sugar mafia - they blackmail him by increasing the price, keep two books to hide the actual numbers - to avoid paying tax, allege to sell of large quantity of sugar to afghanistan, which barely has any consumption, etc. During the recent sugar mills enquiry, they directly threatened government officials against any action.

So how is that not a mafia?

 

[Counter-Errorist]

There is no mafia. Price thek ha sugar and wheat dono ki. Sugarcane ki kasht waisay ban kardain ussay wheat and oil seeds ki production barhay gi

‘Sugar Mafia’ exposed

ISLAMABAD - In a major development on Thursday, the government made public sugar inquiry commission’s report following the approval of the Federal

nation.com.pk

 

[Jazzbot]

Awesome, now the focus should be to maintain this and keep posting surplus like this every month for next 3 years. Also should explore ways to increase this surplus.

Good going.

Btw, when was the last time we posted monthly surplus?

 

[Jungibaaz]

What they wanted to achieve was bigger numbers for their account balance, and maintaining power. Running the country was an afterthought. Look at the IPP contracts, PIA, Steel Mills, and so many institutions designed from ground up to be monetized and power the political machinery rather than benefit the country or its people.

I agree in part, but I look to frame things a little differently and look beyond party politics and face value governance issues.

The core of our problems IMO is a lack of democratic power, and a paraplegic political system. What do I mean by this? Basically democracy is meant to be a system run directly or representatively in accordance with the wishes of the demos; the people are calling the shots for their own benefit. This system works best when mob rule is checked by representative democracy and balancing of power, election rather than sortition, and then you have layers of abstraction of legislative authority between different bodies such the senate, assembly, courts upholding a constitution, assembly checking process of courts, executive checked by a sovereign parliament with some powers of its own. This system is a basis that has been undermined in Pakistan by dictators and opportunistic politicians, even judges in their admirable effort to uphold judicial sovereignty in the lawyers movement ended up going too far and leaving themselves no checks and balances on their own authority. When you combine a dysfunctional and poorly representative system that has lots of internal weakness and a history of being bent to the will of the strongest, and an economy where entrenched interests practise cronyism and feudalism to bolster their power through their wealth which in turns boosters their wealth through their power. You get a system like ours, unable to move on important issues, farcical levels of power accorded to weak governments, dictators and their saplings run amok.

We are complaining about corruption, poverty, poor management. But there’s no fix for these things if the political system is rotten and designed to produce either power struggles that overstep boundaries or produce rotten results directly.

IMO Pakistan needs these things established in roughly this order:

• A broad political consensus on changing the system or at least tweaking it in very meaningful ways. Get every stakeholder onboard and make all proceedings public and open to scrutiny.
• A big reaffirmation of constitutional law, some amendment can be made with a broad consensus.
• Parliamentary sovereignty rubber stamped, and the accountability of certain other arms of government brought back directly under government control and answerable to the assembly.
• Electoral reform, current system means that parties like PTI or national parties lose, regional parties with heartlands like PML and PPP win and this both skews the parliamentary arithmetic, it also leads to regional division. And a simple fact, it shouldn’t be the case that if Punjab alone votes PMLN that the whole of Pakistan is then held to that by arithmetic.
• I’d suggest replacing first past the post with a German style proportional system, this will force our politics to mature and prevent regional parties forming majorities with just 30-35% of the vote as is the case now.
• Accountability of the army, they can’t be above the law, they are above it and have run roughshod over everything, scrutiny, transparency and oversight is needed.
• Media freedom needs to be reaffirmed and freedom of association, this has been undermined.
• Provinces need to be broken up into smaller administrative units. E.g places like Karachi shouldn’t be tied against their will to a government at the Sindh level. This means expanding and changing 18th amendment. You wanted devolution? Let’s have it then.
• Then we can talk about structural reforms a few years down the line, starting with land and agriculture. Do what’s been missing for decades, SC should be asked not to bar it citing a plethora of good reasons.
• Judicial accountability is needed. I’m very happy that our judiciary is no longer in the sorry state it was during dictatorship, but the pendulum has swung in the other direction. Some more transparency and parliamentary oversight on the appointment of judges is needed

These are all really hard to achieve, but we need them in order to move forward, no work done at the top levels of the current system can deal with the huge challenges Pakistan faces until the ground underneath is solidified. The system needs to be changed to make the country governable while also rebalancing power, back into the hands of people. Sorry for the long essay, some of it needs to be addressed as a priority before moving on to other matters.

 

[Counter-Errorist]

I agree in part, but I look to frame things a little differently and look beyond party politics and face value governance issues.

The core of our problems IMO is a lack of democratic power, and a paraplegic political system. What do I mean by this? Basically democracy is meant to be a system run directly or representatively in accordance with the wishes of the demos; the people are calling the shots for their own benefit. This system works best when mob rule is checked by representative democracy and balancing of power, election rather than sortition, and then you have layers of abstraction of legislative authority between different bodies such the senate, assembly, courts upholding a constitution, assembly checking process of courts, executive checked by a sovereign parliament with some powers of its own. This system is a basis that has been undermined in Pakistan by dictators and opportunistic politicians, even judges in their admirable effort to uphold judicial sovereignty in the lawyers movement ended up going too far and leaving themselves no checks and balances on their own authority. When you combine a dysfunctional and poorly representative system that has lots of internal weakness and a history of being bent to the will of the strongest, and an economy where entrenched interests practise cronyism and feudalism to bolster their power through their wealth which in turns boosters their wealth through their power. You get a system like ours, unable to move on important issues, farcical levels of power accorded to weak governments, dictators and their saplings run amok.

We are complaining about corruption, poverty, poor management. But there’s no fix for these things if the political system is rotten and designed to produce either power struggles that overstep boundaries or produce rotten results directly.

IMO Pakistan needs these things established in roughly this order:

• A broad political consensus on changing the system or at least tweaking it in very meaningful ways. Get every stakeholder onboard and make all proceedings public and open to scrutiny.
• A big reaffirmation of constitutional law, some amendment can be made with a broad consensus.
• Parliamentary sovereignty rubber stamped, and the accountability of certain other arms of government brought back directly under government control and answerable to the assembly.
• Electoral reform, current system means that parties like PTI or national parties lose, regional parties with heartlands like PML and PPP win and this both skews the parliamentary arithmetic, it also leads to regional division. And a simple fact, it shouldn’t be the case that if Punjab alone votes PMLN that the whole of Pakistan is then held to that by arithmetic.
• I’d suggest replacing first past the post with a German style proportional system, this will force our politics to mature and prevent regional parties forming majorities with just 30-35% of the vote as is the case now.
• Accountability of the army, they can’t be above the law, they are above it and have run roughshod over everything, scrutiny, transparency and oversight is needed.
• Media freedom needs to be reaffirmed and freedom of association, this has been undermined.
• Provinces need to be broken up into smaller administrative units. E.g places like Karachi shouldn’t be tied against their will to a government at the Sindh level. This means expanding and changing 18th amendment. You wanted devolution? Let’s have it then.
• Then we can talk about structural reforms a few years down the line, starting with land and agriculture. Do what’s been missing for decades, SC should be asked not to bar it citing a plethora of good reasons.
• Judicial accountability is needed. I’m very happy that our judiciary is no longer in the sorry state it was during dictatorship, but the pendulum has swung in the other direction. Some more transparency and parliamentary oversight on the appointment of judges is needed

These are all really hard to achieve, but we need them in order to move forward, no work done at the top levels of the current system can deal with the huge challenges Pakistan faces until the ground underneath is solidified. The system needs to be changed to make the country governable while also rebalancing power, back into the hands of people. Sorry for the long essay, some of it needs to be addressed as a priority before moving on to other matters.

While I appreciate the thoughtful writeup, I will disagree with a few things you mentioned. Corruption indeed stems from dysfunctional and weak institutions, but PPP and PML-N feed and maintain that system because the status quo benefits them. PTI on the other is working against the grain, slowly but surely fixing those institutions - such as the recent split of CAA into PCARA and PAA.

Your original claim was that PML-N wasn't necessarily doing what's bad for the country, they were making a mistake. I hope you can understand why I claim otherwise, particularly based on some of your points you wrote in. They are largely a malicious political engine designed to withhold power among themselves.

Accountability of the army, they can’t be above the law, they are above it and have run roughshod over everything, scrutiny, transparency and oversight is needed.

Disagree, until we have a reliable and strong democratic system in place, the army is the only institution enabling some level of stability in the country. Our larger democratic parties, just as I mentioned, go against the wishes of the country leaning towards their own gains. This includes foreign relations and our military's capabilities. Imagine if Nawaz Sharif with the military having no clout were in power to witness the situations following events such as 9/11, Mumbai attacks, Balakot - and think about how our relations would stand with Afghanistan, Iran, China, US and GCC. Nawaz Sharif would have sold us out at every opportunity leading to us being guinea pigs for their ambitions.

CPEC would likely not have happened without the stabilizing factor of our military. CPEC is largely a culmination of our historical military rather than diplomatic relations with China.

Media freedom needs to be reaffirmed and freedom of association, this has been undermined.

Free media is an export of the US. Even Europe does not buy it. Try doing a Nazi salute on German media and watch how quickly you end up behind a jail cell. A free media is a media up for sale to the highest bidder. Media has no moral authority other than its zeal to grab headlines and hence advertisements. Gone are the days where we had journalists who were respected, everyone's attention span has lead to a media where they clamor to get a few seconds of your visual real estate by hook or by crook. Their prime motivation is making money. And they've consistently shown that under the table transactions work just as well as advertisements towards that goal.

 

[Enigma SIG]

What PML did was even worse than this, it was either a major miscalculation or I’m missing some logic or major benefit that did materialise.

I'm pretty sure Ishaq Dar was being touted as the next best thing since Keynesian Economics. This wasn't a miscalculation by any long shot.

If by IK criticising PML-N's devaluation you mean this

Imran lashes out at govt for rupee devaluation | The Express Tribune

PTI chairman says middle class, poor segments of society will hit hard

tribune.com.pk

"Expressing their dismay, both the senior leaders further said that the current state of external economic crises were a result of poor and ill-intentioned government policies, as well as weak institutions dealing with the economy.

“Poor governance resulting from these weak institutions has sapped the capacity of the government to formulate and implement policies needed for strengthening the economy.”

“The institutions have been deliberately weakened to ensure lack of accountability for the rulers and their accomplices, they said, adding, “No economic turnaround can take place until these institutions are provided protection from political interference and appointments made on merit.”

He was right then, he was right now. There is no magic pill for the economy like the PML-N advertised. You have to take the hard way and swallow these reforms one way or the other. If that means you have to stagnate for a few years, so be it.

 

[CrazyZ]

Again, Exports aren't something which can be turned "ON/OFF". We all know how PML-N destroyed the existing industry and export data from 2012 reflects that.

View attachment 663794

Lets get our manufacturers back from Bangladesh, then we can talk about getting foreign companies to set up shop.

A definitive V shaped recovery. With a weak PKR and world being flooded with dollars, boosting exports must be sustained and increased. Most of the our external debts are in dollars....with the Federal reserve massively injecting dollars into the global system...it should be easier to get our hands on dollars. SBP should convert our dollar dominated debts into PKR dominated debt's using these excess reserves.

 

[Enigma SIG]

A definitive V shaped recovery. With a weak PKR and world being flooded with dollars, boosting exports must be sustained and increased. Most of the our external debts are in dollars....with the Federal reserve massively injecting dollars into the global system...it should be easier to get our hands on dollars. SBP should convert our dollar dominated debts into PKR dominated debt's using these excess reserves.

IT is the fastest way to increase exports. Thankfully over the past 10 years it has grown many fold and still on the rise. We can leverage the so many graduates coming into the job market. I'm in the IT industry myself and COVID was a non-factor as far as revenues are concerned.

 

[Jungibaaz]

While I appreciate the thoughtful writeup, I will disagree with a few things you mentioned. Corruption indeed stems from dysfunctional and weak institutions, but PPP and PML-N feed and maintain that system because the status quo benefits them. PTI on the other is working against the grain, slowly but surely fixing those institutions - such as the recent split of CAA into PCARA and PAA.

Your original claim was that PML-N wasn't necessarily doing what's bad for the country, they were making a mistake. I hope you can understand why I claim otherwise, particularly based on some of your points you wrote in. They are largely a malicious political engine designed to withhold power among themselves.

Let’s disagree then, I view PTI as barely different to the parties before it, it’s rhetoric and leader may be anti-establishment but in practice it has used the same establishment to gain power just like every other party does; the examples are endless. Take your pick between... taking on all manner of ex-PML, Q league, MQM and PPP politicians, to taking the help of the establishment in trying to topple the previous government during dharna years, to now coalitioning with the usual establishment parties of q and MQM.

It seems to me that IK and co used the popularity of anti-establishment rhetoric and disgruntlement with the status quo and fired up support for themselves using it. But most of it was either some valid criticism, mixed with libellous bluster and the usual lip service that every party pays. Even if IK means well and is honest in his anti-establishment credentials (he certainly was before 2013), his actions haven’t inspired any confidence in me.

As for malintent by PML economic policy I think that is quite unwise to assume that this is the case. Why don’t you elaborate, do you mean to claim that they timed a crisis for PTI? If so, then some small form of evidence in policy shouldn’t be hard to find. I was the one here to bring up PML awful policy decisions, but I also know enough to safely conclude that they were mistaken, and there’s really no way they’d be able to plan a crisis like this, it’s implausible.

Disagree, until we have a reliable and strong democratic system in place, the army is the only institution enabling some level of stability in the country.

Do you know which ‘institution’ has undermined democracy consistently since the inception of Pakistan? That’s right, the army.

They may claim to be benevolent dictators but to this day they are perhaps among the biggest roadblocks to actual effective democracy. They hold a disproportionate share of the blame.

Our larger democratic parties, just as I mentioned, go against the wishes of the country leaning towards their own gains. This includes foreign relations and our military's capabilities. Imagine if Nawaz Sharif with the military having no clout were in power to witness the situations following events such as 9/11, Mumbai attacks, Balakot - and think about how our relations would stand with Afghanistan, Iran, China, US and GCC. Nawaz Sharif would have sold us out at every opportunity leading to us being guinea pigs for their ambitions.

Disagree, while sure these parties are selfish and made up by selfish people. The examples you gave aren’t fitting of comparing the army favourably. When it comes to running Pakistan, the army is the final authority, that’s always been the case and even is the case today. By the way who do you think it was that let NS go back to London, besides the courts?

CPEC would likely not have happened without the stabilizing factor of our military. CPEC is largely a culmination of our historical military rather than diplomatic relations with China.

Too hard to say, that’s a far reaching hypothetical. But this sort of point isn’t really worth exploring IMO, intl relations are based on a plethora of issues, not just the internal political virtues of generals. Besides, it was a PPP government and PML government under which CPEC picked up steam, while I don’t give them all the credit, it surely speaks against your claims of affording credit elsewhere and speaking of sabotage.

Free media is an export of the US. Even Europe does not buy it. Try doing a Nazi salute on German media and watch how quickly you end up behind a jail cell. A free media is a media up for sale to the highest bidder. Media has no moral authority other than its zeal to grab headlines and hence advertisements. Gone are the days where we had journalists who were respected, everyone's attention span has lead to a media where they clamor to get a few seconds of your visual real estate by hook or by crook. Their prime motivation is making money. And they've consistently shown that under the table transactions work just as well as advertisements towards that goal.

Fully disagree. Free media is the basis of democracy, it’s an extension of free association and freedom of expression. Sure every place has limits. But without a large degree of this, you cannot be called a conventional democracy. Take your pick, a semblance of democracy and free-ish media or no to both.

 

[CrazyZ]

IT is the fastest way to increase exports. Thankfully over the past 10 years it has grown many fold and still on the rise. We can leverage the so many graduates coming into the job market. I'm in the IT industry myself and COVID was a non-factor as far as revenues are concerned.

IT is critical in the current economic order. But low to medium end manufacturing will create many jobs and is an area we can and should compete in as well.

 

[Enigma SIG]

IT is critical in the current economic order. But low to medium end manufacturing will create many jobs and is an area we can and should compete in as well.

Yes of course. LSM retains its own place. What I meant that IT has a lower barrier to entry and we can leverage our large graduate pool to improve revenues quickly. Setting up industry takes a long while and longer for ROI.

 

[Bilal.]

Yes of course. LSM retains its own place. What I meant that IT has a lower barrier to entry and we can leverage our large graduate pool to improve revenues quickly. Setting up industry takes a long while and longer for ROI.

Especially freelancing. Earning an extra $10billion is very much doable. This and tourism can be the avenue that can quickly provide enough forex to sustain surpluses.

 

[CrazyZ]

Especially freelancing. Earning an extra $10billion is very much doable. This and tourism can be the avenue that can quickly provide enough forex to sustain surpluses.

Tourism will be down globally for a year at least.

 

[WarKa DaNG]

Cotton: $1.7 billion (4.4%)

Why are we importing cotton?