Pakistan Current Account Records a Huge Surplus of $424 million in July 2020

[Verve]

Free media is the basis of democracy, it’s an extension of free association and freedom of expression. Sure every place has limits. But without a large degree of this, you cannot be called a conventional democracy. Take your pick, a semblance of democracy and free-ish media or no to both.

I would love to see a regulator like Ofcom of UK imposed in Pakistan!

Then people like you will scream even more about media being suppressed in Pakistan ...

 

[Jungibaaz]

I would love to see a regulator like Ofcom of UK imposed in Pakistan!

Then people like you will scream even more about media being suppressed in Pakistan ...

Sure, I agree ofcom would be fantastic, we wouldn’t have libellous statements go unchecked either. So I support better regulation.

Also talking about screaming. Out of curiosity how many journalists in the UK were kidnapped, disappeared, alleged torture in the last five years?

At least I’m not a hypocrite living in a free society while advocated that others live in less back home.

 

[Verve]

Sure, I agree ofcom would be fantastic, we wouldn’t have libellous statements go unchecked either. So I support better regulation.

Also talking about screaming. Out of curiosity how many journalists in the UK were kidnapped, disappeared, alleged torture in the last five years?

At least I’m not a hypocrite living in a free society while advocated that others live in less back home.

Do you have any proof of your allegations against the State of Pakistan? Or are you going to post Western and Local media clips as proofs?

 

[Verve]

Waiting for you to show Hamid Mir's picture of bandage wrapped outside his T-shirt! Go on ...

 

[Jungibaaz]

Do you have any proof of your allegations against the State of Pakistan? Or are you going to post Western and Local media clips as proofs?

I know you’re not sincerely asking for any proof. How can there be proofs to meet your standards if the perpetrators are never charged, brought before court, evidence presented in the proper setting and scrutinised, and then the usual proceedings that follow?

Anyway, take your pick we have tons of journalists who claim to have been threatened, picked up, detained, tortured by our agencies. Other times when they feel they can reason with the person in question, usually journos just get an unhappy phone call to them or their boss expressing their dissatisfaction, columns are trashed, by-lines sidelined, pemra actively takes people off the air.

Or these journos sometimes they get invited to have chai with some officer who very politely asks them to knock it off. That’s the lowest intensity scenario.

Seriously take your pick, last one I heard of is matiullah jan, he’s the latest but one voice among many. Amnesty int’l even paid attention to all this in 2018, situation hasn’t improved since.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Waiting for you to show Hamid Mir's picture of bandage wrapped outside his T-shirt! Go on ...

Yup. I guess all these people are liars, paid actors, foreign agents, corrupts etc etc. Only me, my guy and my guy’s keeper are angels.

If you know anyone who works in media in Pakistan, someone in the know, I’d encourage you to go ask them about what is alleged. Ask on a personal level, you won’t like what you find.

 

[RoadRunner401]

Let's get the facts stated first, this current account surplus is not something that developed organically as a result of export growth, remittances and a better trade balance

This recovery didn't happen over night its gradual and that's because Pakistan's economy is somewhat on the right track. After current account balance posted a deficit of $613 mn [million] in July 2019 & a deficit of $100 million in June 2020, in July 2020 current account balance swung upwards to a surplus of $424 million.

I am not sure what you are talking about, or what the meaning of organic, but our account balance increased is because of continuing slow but steady recovery in exports, which rose 20% compared to June 2020, & record remittances.

 

[Jungibaaz]

This recovery didn't happen over night its gradual and that's because Pakistan's economy is somewhat on the right track. After current account balance posted a deficit of $613 mn [million] in July 2019 & a deficit of $100 million in June 2020, in July 2020 current account balance swung upwards to a surplus of $424 million.

I am not sure what you are talking about, or what the meaning of organic, but our account balance increased is because of continuing slow but steady recovery in exports, which rose 20% compared to June 2020, & record remittances.

Perhaps organic is not the right word, but I meant to find a word to describe the opposite of what we are seeing here. Allow me to elaborate/clarify, I agree with your assessment, and yes current account situation has improved in the last two years, exports and remittances have been up, while imports have both ‘organically’ and recently due to the other phenomena reduced quite a bit.

However, the resultant current account surplus is not due to underlying strength, it’s largely the result of some current account improvement momentum pre covid. And an economic shock resulting in weak demand and lower imports, as well as low crude prices. Meaning this surplus is not like a surplus we may have seen let’s say had we have worked on massively boosting exports over a period of five to ten years, that’s the dichotomy I was referring to; a real surplus vs one caused largely by a series of covid related shocks which are not positive entirely and have of their own, or result from, other negative consequences.

Also I think the jury’s still out on how much of an export recovery we’re seeing. We had a lengthy discussion with a very knowledgable member here who pointed out that basically Pakistan in recent years only achieved the low hanging fruit of export led recovery which is low value export such as agriculture, which most likely resulted from a weaker exchange rate, these goods are more competitive as a result. The hard work of establishing export industries is not there yet. So I am cautioning from over celebrating this stuff and reading too much optimistically even at this surplus, which I might add is being mirrored elsewhere and not just Pakistan, hence it’s a global phenomenon related to covid shocks, not underlying strength.

 

[CrazyZ]

Perhaps organic is not the right word, but I meant to find a word to describe the opposite of what we are seeing here. Allow me to elaborate/clarify, I agree with your assessment, and yes current account situation has improved in the last two years, exports and remittances have been up, while imports have both ‘organically’ and recently due to the other phenomena reduced quite a bit.

However, the resultant current account surplus is not due to underlying strength, it’s largely the result of some current account improvement momentum pre covid. And an economic shock resulting in weak demand and lower imports, as well as low crude prices. Meaning this surplus is not like a surplus we may have seen let’s say had we have worked on massively boosting exports over a period of five to ten years, that’s the dichotomy I was referring to; a real surplus vs one caused largely by a series of covid related shocks which are not positive entirely and have of their own, or result from, other negative consequences.

Also I think the jury’s still out on how much of an export recovery we’re seeing. We had a lengthy discussion with a very knowledgable member here who pointed out that basically Pakistan in recent years only achieved the low hanging fruit of export led recovery which is low value export such as agriculture, which most likely resulted from a weaker exchange rate, these goods are more competitive as a result. The hard work of establishing export industries is not there yet. So I am cautioning from over celebrating this stuff and reading too much optimistically even at this surplus, which I might add is being mirrored elsewhere and not just Pakistan, hence it’s a global phenomenon related to covid shocks, not underlying strength.

All journey's start with one step. Boosting agricultural and textile exports is where we have to start. Next step is where Pakistan has typically struggled....that is to get private business to reinvest their export derived gains into expanding existing production or R/D for more advanced exports.

This is where the east Asian model (EAM) does well. EAM government backed entities comply with this leading to more future growth. Private business men in Pakistan prefer to reinvest their export gains into foreign real estate. The Sharif's are a good example of this. This does not help our national development.

We need to continue to study and emulate the East Asian model. The current Anglo-American economic model does not work well if you don't have a reserve currency.

 

[Jungibaaz]

All journey's start with one step. Boosting agricultural and textile exports is where we have to start. Next step is where Pakistan has typically struggled....that is to get private business to reinvest their export derived gains into expanding existing production or R/D for more advanced exports.

This is where the east Asian model (EAM) does well. EAM government backed entities comply with this leading to more future growth. Private business men in Pakistan prefer to reinvest their export gains into foreign real estate. The Sharif's are a good example of this. This does not help our national development.

We need to continue to study and emulate the East Asian model. The current Anglo-American economic model does not work well if you don't have a reserve currency.

Agree on all points. Previous government also messed up by being over-ambitious in too short of a time. And without the necessary hard work that comes before.

It seems to me that they had this singular idea in their head that Pakistan needs to achieve 6% GDP growth come what may. This works only if you can sustain 6%. Explaining this to a friend of mine as I said to think of an economy as a boat, it has an engine that powers it and each boat has its own structure.

If the water around you is calm it’s easier to sail, if you’re in a covid like storm, it’s rough. Similarly some boats over time have built the necessary conditions to accelerate to 6-9% growth sustained over years, they can sail fast and long distances. Others have to take extra ordinary measures to achieve this and it can’t be sustained. PML tried to do this by pushing the engine to its limit, burning all useful reserves to power us harder, and using only short term policies that would inevitably lead to us overheating and crashing, after which we’d be lucky if the wind alone helped us continue sailing. We need to build the strength, a powerful enough engine of prosperity first, then we can dream about long sustainable high growth growth rate etc. Your suggestions I fully agree with.

 

[CrazyZ]

Agree on all points. Previous government also messed up by being over-ambitious in too short of a time. And without the necessary hard work that comes before.

It seems to me that they had this singular idea in their head that Pakistan needs to achieve 6% GDP growth come what may. This works only if you can sustain 6%. Explaining this to a friend of mine as I said to think of an economy as a boat, it has an engine that powers it and each boat has its own structure.

If the water around you is calm it’s easier to sail, if you’re in a covid like storm, it’s rough. Similarly some boats over time have built the necessary conditions to accelerate to 6-9% growth sustained over years, they can sail fast and long distances. Others have to take extra ordinary measures to achieve this and it can’t be sustained. PML tried to do this by pushing the engine to its limit, burning all useful reserves to power us harder, and using only short term policies that would inevitably lead to us overheating and crashing, after which we’d be lucky if the wind alone helped us continue sailing. We need to build the strength, a powerful enough engine of prosperity first, then we can dream about long sustainable high growth growth rate etc. Your suggestions I fully agree with.

This will be a 20 - 30 year journey. East Asian nations have been good at coming up with and constantly revising a long term plan development plan. Each step has to build on the previous step. Japan, S Korea, and China are good models to follow from this perspective.

PPP have been economic hit men that have ruined Pakistan every time they come to power. Muslim league has been better but they are too short term in their thinking. They increase low hanging exports for a few years only to "burn" the forex in the end to keep growth going through consumption. This ends in a BOP crisis, rupee devaluation and IMF bailout. Muslim League has done this numerous times.

PTI and SBP must be smarter and work toward long term sustainable development. The challenge for them will be to build on on the green shoots to encourage more investment into expanding competitive low and medium level exports while encouraging R/D in more advanced exports. This virtuous cycle has to be repeated step after step as East Asian nations have accomplished. COAS should keep an eye on ECC, IMO. Keep them on a long term focus.

 

[Verve]

Yup. I guess all these people are liars, paid actors, foreign agents, corrupts etc etc. Only me, my guy and my guy’s keeper are angels.

If you know anyone who works in media in Pakistan, someone in the know, I’d encourage you to go ask them about what is alleged. Ask on a personal level, you won’t like what you find.

British media doesn't dare report or accuse MI6 etc ..

Yet in Pakistan if someone from intelligence has a quiet word to tone things down against them, it's a big issue.

I dare you to go on Twitter and start accusing MI6 etc of all sorts and then see what happens to you! I had plain dark blue uniform visitors once at my residence because I expressed certain views on 9/11 on a forum when the Islamaphobe propaganda was in early years.

I welcome you to speak against and falsely accuse British agencies (without proof as some Pak journalists) do ... When you've done, then come lecture on what happens in Pakistan!!

 

[Verve]

Look at Alex Jones ... Never taken to court but he's banned from YouTube, Facebook Twitter etc ... and you think that Western Journalists have more freedom than Pakistani journalists!!

 

[Jungibaaz]

British media doesn't dare report or accuse MI6 etc ..

Yet in Pakistan if someone from intelligence has a quiet word to tone things down against them, it's a big issue.

I dare you to go on Twitter and start accusing MI6 etc of all sorts and then see what happens to you! I had plain dark blue uniform visitors once at my residence because I expressed certain views on 9/11 on a forum when the Islamaphobe propaganda was in early years.

lol, you can't be serious.

Nobody accuses MI or GCHQ because we have quite a degree of free speech here. Where the law agencies draw the line is if there's a credible threat of violence. Also, if you feel you were discriminated against by those agencies, you are freely speaking about it here now. And I do agree that some western agencies broke privacy and spied too much and detained muslims in post 9/11 years, they overstepped the mark. But I can say that openly.

I ask you instead of me trying to disprove a negative, how many journalists say they were threatened, picked up/kidnapped or how many allege torture at the hands of agencies in the UK? None that I've heard of. How many in Pakistan? Lots.

I welcome you to speak against and falsely accuse British agencies (without proof as some Pak journalists) do ... When you've done, then come lecture on what happens in Pakistan!!

So wait, now you're saying that extrajudicial kidnappings happen, but for just reasons? You changed your tune pretty quick.

Look at Alex Jones ... Never taken to court but he's banned from YouTube, Facebook Twitter etc ... and you think that Western Journalists have more freedom than Pakistani journalists!!

 

[Verve]

lol, you can't be serious.

Nobody accuses MI or GCHQ because we have quite a degree of free speech here. Where the law agencies draw the line is if there's a credible threat of violence. Also, if you feel you were discriminated against by those agencies, you are freely speaking about it here now. And I do agree that some western agencies broke privacy and spied too much and detained muslims in post 9/11 years, they overstepped the mark. But I can say that openly.

I ask you instead of me trying to disprove a negative, how many journalists say they were threatened, picked up/kidnapped or how many allege torture at the hands of agencies in the UK? None that I've heard of. How many in Pakistan? Lots.




So wait, now you're saying that extrajudicial kidnappings happen, but for just reasons? You changed your tune pretty quick.

Some Journalists in Pakistan can claim all sort if they are paid enough to claim. If the journalists in Pakistan were investigated for assets beyond means (don't jump on this one again, as you did once!) and get called in by FIA, you will claim that they are being silenced or threatened or picked up by agencies.

If people like PTM leadership are allowed to roam around openly inciting hatred against PA and ISI, then why would the agencies pickup or kidnap or threaten journalists?

You should start accusing Mi6 etc on twitter and then wait for reaction. Once you've done in UK what some Pakistani journalists are doing, and seen the reaction you get in UK then only come and support the Pak journalists.

And nobody accuses MI and GCHQ because they fear the consequences! Not because there is degree of free speech. Media in UK is so controlled that we can't even imagine in Pakistan! As I said, impose Ofcom in Pakistan and hear the screams of all journalists and media houses! You can't even openly talk about judges in UK, like they are discussed in Pakistan.