Pakistan Contracts $10 Billion Gas Pipeline to US

[PakSniper]

You guys have to understand this deal is different, than what we will have with Iran. The US pipeline deal willn't solve our problems we need more and Iran is our only way and to make more cash on the side.

Plus, the pipeline deal willn't go through that easily espically the attacks that might happen in the future, etc, and Russian and China making more trouble for the US using the Central Asian countries (who are more or less part of SCO). Since, it will come through Pakistan we will hold some leverage.

 

[EagleEyes]

We're in final stage of closing the IP(I) deal with Iran, decision is expected before year end with or without participation of India being the third party.

GoP favors the IP(I) above TAP for the obvious reasons, the latter wasn't even 'our' idea but its being pushed by the US as an alternative to prevent IP(I). The question is: Does Pakistan need two pipelines? No! We produce ca 35 billion cu m natural gas whereas our oil consuption is 365.000 parrel a day, projected growth is 15% p/a for the next five years. IP(I) is designed to meet our energy requirements beyond 2020 and if needed the capacity can be exceeded.

This Imho leaves no room for the TAP.

Just my 2 cts.

I see. I got the feeling that Pakistan did need two pipelines. The negotiation with TAP has been going on for years. I remember discussing TAP an year ago here at defence.pk. Are you sure about this?

Because if we go with TAP. India doesn't fit the bill, however i also think it is a political show down to create a maneuver which effects the 123 agreement.

 

[Awesome]

That is some serious cash to the company or United States. I knew of this deal before, but hadn't know any contribution of it from the Americans. Yes, this deal is seprate from the one which we are negotiating with Iran. There is no policy change.

There needs to be some serious research on this issue since the United States company has stepped in. Where the money will come from? Who is going to get paid? What is the deal exactly?

Also, as a comment to the reporting post. I do like to say to members. Please keep your heated discussions that you took part in limited to that thread only. Dont ruin other threads. Violating it creates a different atmosphere, and please avoid to jump into the conclusion immediately. We are grown ups.

This deal was mentioned in one of the Michael Moore movies citing it as a cause for attacking Afghanistan.

 

[genmirajborgza786]

yeah i saw it in the theater its name is Fahrenheit 9/11 that movie was an eye opener man i just love this guy Michael Moore.

 

[Bull]

My point is very simple. Contracting out a pipeline to a US company does not change the Pakistani government's stance on the Iranian Gas Pipeline, which has always been consistent aka the pipeline will go ahead. Contracting out the pipeline to a US company does not in anyway mean that the Iranian Gas Pipeline will not go ahead. That is why I post with the tone I post as you say..simply because his article is nonsense, to which the reply was diverted to whinging about being a Mohajir (to me it's off topic)

And it's not news to me, because contracting out the pipeline to a US company, means it is still going ahead despite US government protests, which I already knew.

You have a gas pipeline controlled by the US and you can be sure uncle sam would play that card when it comes to Pakistan's stance with Iran. IPI could be scrapped after this.

 

[niaz]

IMO all the posts have missed out on the real reason for this deal. US has been trying to stop IPI pipeline from actually happening. Gas supply from Turkmenistan is a big carrot and one of the reasons why various Pak governments from Nawaz Sharif's first term have been supporting Taliban. Turkmenistan, on the other hand, needs an outlet so that her huge gas reserves can be economically exploited.

Theoritically; once a pipeline is built, say upto Gawadar; a land connection to India can be provided. Additionally, construction of an LNG facility at Gawadar will enbale Central Asian gas to find markets in the FAR East. However, unless there is peace in Afghanistan, Turkmenistan pipeline is not likely to be more than a proposal on paper only. US can nevertheless say that Pakistan and/ or India dont need gas from Iran, US will provide them means to cover their energy needs from Turkmenistan.

Iranian Petroleum Minister was replaced a few days ago. Previous minister was a Technocrat and wanted high price for Iranian gas. His priorites were commercial. New minister is a political creature and his decision would have political considerations. This should hurry up finalization of IPI negotiations.

Let us not put too much faith in gas import from Turkmenistan. It the 'Oil Game' of the US. primarily aimed at curtailing Iran's income.

 

[roadrunner]

You have a gas pipeline controlled by the US and you can be sure uncle sam would play that card when it comes to Pakistan's stance with Iran. IPI could be scrapped after this.

Where does it say America will control the IPI pipeline?

America will build the pipeline (they have the experience in construction). As for running the pipeline, why would Pakistan let the Americans run a pipeline the American government could turn on and off when they wanted?

I'm not even sure of the accuracy of the article until I've seen more reports.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

You have a gas pipeline controlled by the US and you can be sure uncle sam would play that card when it comes to Pakistan's stance with Iran. IPI could be scrapped after this.

Are you suggesting that the U.S might stop the flow of products through the pipeline to pressure Pakistan under some circumstances, or that it will leverage the construction of this pipeline so that the one from Iran is delayed or canceled? If it is the former, then I don't necessarily see that happening since Turkmenistan is not going to like the idea of a possible loss of billions in revenues just because the U.S wants to manipulate the geopolitical situation to its advantage. If the pipeline becomes a steady flow of revenue for Afghanistan, they are not going to be too enthusiastic about severing that either. There are also the possible repercussions on international markets if a part, or all, of the product is sold outside of Pakistan.

I would also have to agree with RR about the accuracy of the article until more reports emerge. This seems a bit out of the blue, notwithstanding Michael Moore's commentary.

 

[EagleEyes]

I believe that Turkmenistan pipeline should be scrapped for now. IPI pipleline is the way the to go for Pakistan to meet its needs, and it also wouldn't have to spend that much money which it is trying to spend on Turkmenistan since the project will be funded by both India and Pakistan. Once IPI is built and is meeting the requirements of Pakistan and India, and Gawadar becomes a successful port (which inshallah it will be) i do think that Pakistan can pitch in a deal with the Turkmenistan to offer its oil to Gawadar port, that way Pakistan can earn more than what it will spend. Let them spend their money to construct their own pipeline. What do the members think about this scenerio?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Earlier this month, the $7.5 billion Iran-India-Pakistan (IPI) gas pipeline was all but abandoned after Tehran fired the oil minister who had reportedly agreed to sell gas to Pakistan and India “at a discount”. Although the dismissed minister Mr Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh recently rejected claims that he had agreed to sell the IPI gas at a 30 percent discount, and insisted that “no agreement on price” had been reached, the hawkish elements opposed to selling the gas to Pakistan seem to have won the day. This has come in the backdrop of Tehran rumours that America was active in Balochistan against Iran as a tit-for-tat for what Iran was allegedly doing in Iraq.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

If the analysis in this article is correct, we may not have any choice now but to pursue the risky TAP project. The Iranian attitude to this project has always puzzled me. Its not like they are flush with investment and have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to goodwill and friends in the international community. Yet every report from Iran related to this project has been of a tone of bluster, arrogance and non-compromise with regards to the pricing issue. It seems an attitude better suited to that of the Russians under Putin towards some of the former Soviet Block republics.

 

[roadrunner]

I believe that Turkmenistan pipeline should be scrapped for now. IPI pipleline is the way the to go for Pakistan to meet its needs, and it also wouldn't have to spend that much money which it is trying to spend on Turkmenistan since the project will be funded by both India and Pakistan. Once IPI is built and is meeting the requirements of Pakistan and India, and Gawadar becomes a successful port (which inshallah it will be) i do think that Pakistan can pitch in a deal with the Turkmenistan to offer its oil to Gawadar port, that way Pakistan can earn more than what it will spend. Let them spend their money to construct their own pipeline. What do the members think about this scenerio?

I'm not completely sure, but TAP is being funded by the American oil companies (it's an American project, why is Pakistan paying anything for it anyway). After all they've always wanted TAP to come about from a long while back. They can't use Iran in order to ship the barrels, the nearest country would be Pakistan , unless they can make something of a line up and around Iran, through Iraq and winding around Saudi Arabia which would be too expensive and probably too big to do. If that pipeline is free for Pakistan, and if the IPI pipeline is paid for by Pakistan, Iran, India, then it's possible to have both. This could be used by Pakistan to force either the Iranians or Turkmens into lowering the price of gas to them by favouring the cheaper line.

I would have thought the TAP line would be more favourable to Pakistan, since the Americans want this for Gwadar. The Iranians are only after money for themselves, though the Americans and Turkmens are too, both of them know Pakistan is their only warm water outlet, and so they'll probably give Pakistan gas (and oil) at a discounted price. The attitude of the Iranians is puzzling like AgnosticMuslim said above, since there is an alternative which probably would be cheaper for Pakistan perhaps. Who do you choose? The Americans/Turkmens or the Iranians? Iranians might be more trustworthy for Pakistan, but the Americans/Turkmens would be offering a good deal since they need Pakistani help, the Iranians don't. I agree with your sentiment below, that it would help improve relations between neighbouring countries though. If the Iranians lower their price to compete with TAP prices, Pakistan should favour the IPI, if not, take your pick. If the Americans are in charge of the TAP, having a second pipeline of the IPI would mean that even if America wants to stop export to Pakistan (which it wouldn't since it needs Gwadar), there's IPI to take over energy supplies.

I think I've come to my final opinion. Build both pipelines.

 

[EagleEyes]

roadrunner,

Bingo! Exactly my thought. Also i will favour IPI as much as possible. It will ensure the bond of peace between the two countries of south asia. By any cost, the project should not be downed.

 

[Bull]

I believe that Turkmenistan pipeline should be scrapped for now. IPI pipleline is the way the to go for Pakistan to meet its needs, and it also wouldn't have to spend that much money which it is trying to spend on Turkmenistan since the project will be funded by both India and Pakistan. Once IPI is built and is meeting the requirements of Pakistan and India, and Gawadar becomes a successful port (which inshallah it will be) i do think that Pakistan can pitch in a deal with the Turkmenistan to offer its oil to Gawadar port, that way Pakistan can earn more than what it will spend. Let them spend their money to construct their own pipeline. What do the members think about this scenerio?

IPI would not be possible with India, atleast it looks that way till now. India hasnt been able to enter into agreements with Iran regarding the price of gas and also on the terms of delivery. So whatever is been build would have to be build by Pakistan and Iran and more importantly that would be against US wishes.

 

[genmirajborgza786]

A must watch former ISI CHIEF GENERAL ASSAD DURRANI TALK ABOUT ISSUES RELATED TO THIS THREAD WITH DR. SHAHID MASOOD in Meray Mutabiq - 20 August 07
link click below
Pakistan Politics

 

[EagleEyes]

IPI would not be possible with India, atleast it looks that way till now. India hasnt been able to enter into agreements with Iran regarding the price of gas and also on the terms of delivery. So whatever is been build would have to be build by Pakistan and Iran and more importantly that would be against US wishes.

India has to choose something. Either 123 agreement or Iran pipeline, otherwise load shedding & energy requirements not meeting zindabad.