Pakistan can become the world's 18th largest economy by 2050 Jim O'Neill Might be true

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Jim O'Neill is famous for coining the term BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2001, analyzing their potential to become the world's most powerful economies.

Now he has come up with a new term MINT - Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, projecting their economies to see the strong growth in the coming decades.


According to his projections for 2050, Pakistan would become the 18th largest economy in the world by 2050 with a GDP of US$3.33 trillion (almost the same size as the current German economy).

http://www.dawn.com/news/1081336

We all as Pakistanis know the potential that our Country has,Even in the darkest times we believed in a better tomorrow,Call ourselves lucky for having one of the most cultivable land on the planet and having an immense economic potential.
Many Pakistanis don't know that despite the 5.5-6 percent growth rate this year Pakistan is among the fastest growing economies in the world.
See how much difference can one or two years make.
In 2014 and before we just got used to for reading the worst news coming out about our Great country and its economy in particular,Many articles we've read by foreigners and countrymen alike that the economy of Pakistan will collapse blah blah.
But here we are today.
We all need to work together and come out of our little stupid differences,We all need to walk on the path of sustained democracy ,Many of the PTI- PMLN people and other parties blame democracy for the ills of our country.
Lets just close our eyes and continue on the path of democracy ,because that is the simple thing that founders of our country wanted us to do,if we choose dictators or others over this then we're just trying to ruin the memories and sacrifices of our own country and its great leaders (THUS) making Pakistan a pariah and artificial state that disowns its own history.
As democracy strengthens,The state institutions disintegrate from unnecessary concentration of powers,In return those institutions straighten overtime and problems like corruption/favoritism are resolved automatically.
Maybe Pakistan does not have the economic hegemony of India where it has forced itself on smaller states like Nepal and sri-lanka Thus benefiting from them enormously.
But here's my promise Pakistanis (Nobody can stop us from our destiny of becoming the 18th largest economy in the world except ourselves).
Let's learn from our history and the wounds that our father-land carries ,Let's look at why Bangladesh happened and be proud that our History gives us so much Wisdom.
Lets not disrupt our democratic system ,IT IS NEVER THE SYSTEM THAT HAS TO BE CHANGED,It is always what can be done to improve the system,It is always what can be done to avert the shadows so that we can see a better-tomorrow.
As economy improves and state Institutions are strengthened these little problems of corruption etc will automatically be solved as Inflation will also be stabilized.
This news is from 2014 when CPEC had been proposed a month earlier and that's when Jim O'neil gave these predictions but as recent development and praises to the economy by forbes and Economist (It seems likely that we can become the worlds 18th largest economy),So far he has predicted the rise of BRICS and it has happened and every report about Pakistan's economy supports his conclusion.

Discussion- (Can Pakistan become the worlds 18th Largest Economy by 2050)?
PS: I know the news is old and has been shared on Defencepk but lets discuss what are the chances?

 

[hussain0216]

They need to aim for this in 2030 minimum

 

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They need to aim for this in 2030 minimum

Nah that ain't happening ,We ain't that brilliant .lol
To do so we need to annex the wakhan corridor (we need some economic rights in Afghanistan)
When will Afghanistan help us?? ,How would europe be if it had a Afghanistan in it.
On a more serious note,Our trade and economic co-operation with central asian states are non-existent ,We need to create an economic hegemony like how India does in its neighboring smaller countries.

 

[Jugger]

This is possible only if Pakistan controls its population, and invests in developing its human resources.

 

[Syed1.]

Inshallah we will be one of the top 10 largest economies by 2050.

 

[Hamza913]

Just please, PLEASE get rid of terrorism. That's literally my only desire.

 

[farhan_9909]

We should plan for top 12 by 2050

 

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Just please, PLEASE get rid of terrorism. That's literally my only desire.

lol I'm probably one of those Sipahi's trying to sign up to fight for my motherland when it needs me ,even when half of my nitwit friends go abroad for studies.
Inshallah Pakistan army will eat those terrorists alive like chicken.
Bomb em to cook em

 

[Hamza913]

lol I'm probably one of those Sipahi's trying to sign up to fight for my motherland when it needs me ,even when half of my nitwit friends go abroad for studies.
Inshallah Pakistan army will eat those terrorists alive like chicken.
Bomb em to cook em

I would love to join too, but I don't speak Urdu very well.

 

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We should plan for top 12 by 2050

I'm good with top 20 and a 3 trillion GDP .
Bro our poverty levels are somewhat 14 Percent and < in 2017 (Probably around 13 percent).
I promise you that we can eradicate the rest of multi-dimensional poverty easily (The current government has also taken some steps)

With a 3 trillion economy ,We can pour it into education health sports and everywhere else.

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

They need to aim for this in 2030 minimum

That's too much and unrealistic. We must be thankful that we're reaching 5.6% growth rate despite being one of the main fronts in the war on terror.

This is possible only if Pakistan controls its population, and invests in developing its human resources.

Pakistan's population growth is nearly the same as India's and is set to decline only further. Pakistan has also had a much steeper decline in population growth rate than India, in it's current trend - Pakistan will have less population growth than India by this decade.

 

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Pakistan's population growth is nearly the same as India's and is set to decline only further. Pakistan has also had a much steeper decline in population growth rate than India, in it's current trend - Pakistan will have less population growth than India by this decade.

The population growth is okay at the moment and we need it.
But we desperately need to control our class systems and do it now ,Taxes need to be imposed as per new born child depending on the divided class system in our country.
That will resolve the problem of population growth as per class systems and also impact poverty levels.
If poor has 6 children and can't feed them anymore,then its not only his problem but a problem for the country (we need to be original about our problems and deal with them accordingly not impose china's two child policy).

 

[Zaahir]

I'm good with top 20 and a 3 trillion GDP .
Bro our poverty levels are somewhat 14 Percent and < in 2017 (Probably around 13 percent).
I promise you that we can eradicate the rest of multi-dimensional poverty easily (The current government has also taken some steps)

With a 3 trillion economy ,We can pour it into education health sports and everywhere else.

Though such long term forecasts are highly inaccurate for any economy given there are 100's of factors, basic mathematics tells that if Pakistan grows @ 7% on an average from hereon till 2050 ( Highly unlikely- as a 34 year average) from its current base of $270 bn, it will be in the range of $2.6-2.7 trillion but that assumes a constant exchange rate over the period- which is impossible. PKR will have to depreciate to be competitive and without being competitive 7% growth or even 4% growth average over 34 years cannot be achieved.
Therefore accounting for the depreciation of PKR the final figure even at 7% would be much less than $2.7 trillion. There will be approx 15-17 economies in the range of 2 trillion by 2030. Therefore Pakistan being a top 20 economy in 2050 is unlikely.
Though miracles are possible and Pakistan might grow @10 -12%, then who knows

 

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Though such long term forecasts are highly inaccurate for any economy given there are 100's of factors, basic mathematics tells that if Pakistan grows @ 7% on an average from hereon till 2050 ( Highly unlikely- as a 34 year average) from its current base of $270 bn, it will be in the range of $2.6-2.7 trillion but that assumes a constant exchange rate over the period- which is impossible. PKR will have to depreciate to be competitive and without being competitive 7% growth or even 4% growth average over 34 years cannot be achieved.
Therefore accounting for the depreciation of PKR the final figure even at 7% would be much less than $2.7 trillion. There will be approx 15-17 economies in the range of 2 trillion by 2030. Therefore Pakistan being a top 20 economy in 2050 is unlikely.
Though miracles are possible and Pakistan might grow @10 -12%, then who knows

Great Post bro.
But you got one thing wrong about the Base average.
Jim Oneil has based calculations astonishingly accurate because CPEC remember was only proposed at the time he made those remarks, His calculations on BRICS was remarkable as well.
The base average of GDP growth in Pakistan is expected to be realistically between 9-9.5 percent or maybe 10 up-untill 2050.
Let me tell you why.
Pakistan already has 6 percent growth rate according to a recent report by forbes so i expect it to rise at least to 8 percent by 2020 (Because half of CPEC is not yet completed and it will come as FDI ((Primarily it is more like investment in the form of FDI)) account for Infrastructure projects that will also be completed and backtracking losses to the national economy in light of the Privatization of National Institutions) I expect this to be the base average of almost 10 because remember Pakistan is growing by 5.5-6 percent today so it can amount to almost 3 trillion by 2050.
I expect you believe what Mr Jim has to say

 

[Syed1.]

We would be the third or fourth largest population by 2050, we NEED to be atleast the 7-8th largest economy.

Pakistan can grow very, very rapidly if we put our house in order. We have the TWO largest population centers right at our door steps. How many other countries in the world have that opportunity?