Bilal Khan (Quwa)
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To be fair, the focus on the old stuff has a lot to do with stretching value out of the sunk support/infrastructure costs for those oldies (esp. C-130).
But you're right.
The old stuff works now, but it's getting harder to support them, and there's no long-term successor for the day when it's simply not possible to support the old stuff.
If anything, if you can affordably keep stretching old stuff, it should be easier to fund an in-house successor. There's less of a rush to replace it, so you can have a slower, longer term R&D process. I like what the PN is doing. It will keep the P-3Cs alive for as long as possible, but it's still working on a next-gen LRMPA program.
The challenge with the Herc is that it's a one-of-a-kind. There's a widespread saying all over the world, "only a Herc can replace a Herc." The PAF knows that any Herc variant can readily work in all of its ops environments (esp. high-altitude, dusty, etc areas).
But I don't think we have to be so fatalistic. If we have a problem, then surely, there's a solution out there somewhere. If the PAF can keep the Hercs alive for 1-2 decades, then it could set-up an in-house/joint-venture for a successor.
Just saying, Ukraine seems to have the inputs to make a serviceable transport aircraft.
1. You could pick-up shelved program -- like An-70 -- and fund a pilot in Ukraine to bring it up to serviceable standard, restore the manufacturing line (in both Ukraine and Pakistan), and other steps over 10-15 years.
2. You could look into an existing program -- like An-178 -- and work with Ukraine to up its payload, operational range, etc. This is almost like a new development program as it may require airframe enlargement, new engines, etc.
3. You could use the existing inputs (e.g., D-27 propfan engine, Antonov's design and engineering expertise for transport aircraft, etc) to get Ukraine to design a new clean-sheet transport aircraft.
Turkey is doing a mix of 1 and 2 with the An-70. So, basically, Turkey's working with Ukraine to co-develop a variant of the An-70 with jet engines (i.e., An-188). However, with a payload of 50 tons, the An-188 will be a large aircraft (Y-20-class).
Pakistan could look at co-funding a transport with a payload of 20 tons (i.e., C-130-class), perhaps with turboprops instead of jet engines (to cover its unique hot-and-high, rugged, etc) needs.
Or take a more conservative route by co-funding a new variant of the An-178, but with the more fuel efficient AI-28 turbofan engines and a slightly enlarged airframe (doable since the An-178 is an enlarged An-158, itself an enlarged An-148). This may not 100% succeed the C-130s, but by taking up most transport duties (i.e., outside rugged areas), may help keep the Hercs flying for longer in specialized roles.
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