Pak Rejects Indian Proposal to Declare Nuclear Doctrine

[deckingraj]

The problem is that Pakistan wont use just 1 or 10 or 20 nukes , it will clear up the arsenal and fire all at once ...

Lets assume Pakistan has over 100 nukes...and lets go by your claim that Pakistan will fire all her stockpile at once. Can you please enlighten us that how can such an attack be under under the carpet??? In other words how can this go undetected??? If you lose the surprise then please tell me one good reason that India should wait before all these missile create havoc in India??? In other words the moment we realize that such a mobilization has taken place in pakistan we will unleash all we have towards you, no??? I hope by now you are convinced that what you are suggesting is not possible...Even thinking about a nuke war is stupid...

Now let's think about another scenario and dwell upon the fact that why countries declare nuclear doctrine ...Please keep in mind that it is pure imagination.....Let's assume that relation b/w US and Pakistan goes down the hill and an armed conflict starts b/w NATO and Pakistan. Considering NATO's power i can easily say that pakistan will get a good beating conventionally....Now under such a situation and especially without a nuclear doctrine what should planner's in India consider about Pakistan and her nuclear stockpile??? Since there is no clear picture one would be more tend to assume the worst case scenario and comes up with its won contingency plan. Our planners can rightly/wrongly assume that Pakistan will go down taking India along with it even though we did not participate in war by any means...Now see the tragedy..Even though Pakistan might be preparing an attack on NATO sites our establishment can assume it to be an attack on us and can unleash all that we have...See the result..India Pakistan cooked themselves over nothing and NATO ends up as clear winner..

In short not declaring nuclear doctrine can work both ways. It can keep India guessing and in fact is working so far...but there can be a scenario where India will call the bluff. Now in such a situation two nuclear powers fighting with one of them not having a clear nuclear doctrine can bring in nuke war out of mere suspicion. and when i say nuke war i mean all of us either dead or living a miserable life under the clouds of radiations...

 

[Doctor09]

ya you seem to be sure that you will be deciding the tipping point
surgiscal strikes are not tipping points if thats the case your country is wasting money on conventional weapons so it seems pretty illogical

it may be illogical for you but we dont care what Indians think . Dont worry we are not wasting money , we are investing and in the time of war our investment will prove to be right .

 

[janett]

what was the need to say?They are enough to create mess for their own and leave them upto u.s..

make a thick wall and concentrate on china..

 

[heartrocker22]

Why m i not surprised at this news

 

[r3alist]

May be but by declaring doctrine will allow it to earn respect and trust of world towards Pakistan. How much i wish that Pakistan had a strong government that would control the army. I feel we need to have some sci-fi stuff in place like hot line between Prime Minister in case of nuclear conflict, airborne command i.e, Doomsday plane etc....

We should be competing each other than fighting each other....The problem of giving governance with the army is, it is with too much emotion and bravado that they take decision.

Here is an example how a IAF chief took a decision in the heat of the situation

"After 26/11 Prime minister called national security meeting, in that meeting prime minister asked what are the possible reactions that are available. Then then strategic forces command head ACM retd Fali Homi Major, told to conduct surgical strikes on terrorist hied outs in pakistan. But fortunately the other two service chief's vetoed it by saying its a emotional decision."

So always there should cool heads on shoulder to take decisions, it is difficult in case of pakistan when the army is at the helm.

A good post.

 

[The Count]

War is not a kid play . wars are always full of surprises and these surprises helps to win the wars . If your enemy knows your move already then you can not win the war . but if you take you enemy by surprise then you will achieve your objective .
If we tell India that we will not have first use policy then India can implement its Cold war doctrine which it can not implement yet because India can not afford nuclear attack in retaliation from Pak . As long as India is unsure it wont attack .

Dr Sahib, you have a good point, part of the policy must be ambiguity (as in the doctrine of flexible response) which is crucial for Pakistan, partialy because your nuclear deterrent will not be as large as India and your lack a credible second strike.

However, as a peaceable country Pakistan surely has no first strike policy because this would put you in the role as aggressor in relation to India which does not have a first strike policy. Furthermore it seems Pakistan's preoccupation with the 'malfescence' of India prevents Pakistani stratergists and policy makers from clearly analysing the situation vis a vis India's nuclear deterent (and India more fully). Do India's nuclear weapons soley exist as a stick to beat Pakistan or does it have more to do with China and India's ambitions as a regional power (which do not necessarily have to be to Pakistan's detriment)?

The Count

 

[Secur]

Lets assume Pakistan has over 100 nukes...and lets go by your claim that Pakistan will fire all her stockpile at once. Can you please enlighten us that how can such an attack be under under the carpet??? In other words how can this go undetected??? If you lose the surprise then please tell me one good reason that India should wait before all these missile create havoc in India??? In other words the moment we realize that such a mobilization has taken place in pakistan we will unleash all we have towards you, no??? I hope by now you are convinced that what you are suggesting is not possible...Even thinking about a nuke war is stupid...

Your nuclear doctrine says otherwise even though i dont believe a word of it ... Our nuclear threshold is not known , a key point to remember so you can never tell when we are planning to go nuclear ... Launching all nukes isn't possible , why ?

 

[deckingraj]

Your nuclear doctrine says otherwise even though i dont believe a word of it ... Our nuclear threshold is not known , a key point to remember so you can never tell when we are planning to go nuclear ... Launching all nukes isn't possible , why ?

You did not read my post properly. Anyhow let me make it more apparent for you...The biggest and most apparent aspect of a nuke attack is surprise...you loose the surprise you loose the edge...If you want to unleash all your weapons you will have to do a massive mobilization of you nuclear assets(keep in mind they are well dispersed for many reasons) and there is no way you can escape detection...

well you can chose not believe even a single word of our doctrine but that will not change anything...What i am trying to say is that if our establishment is convinced that an attack is imminent from Pak then there is no way we will wait for all those missiles to land in India...we will unleash everything we have to destroy as much of your stockpile as we can...make sense???

 

[StandForInsaf]

You did not read my post properly. Anyhow let me make it more apparent for you...The biggest and most apparent aspect of a nuke attack is surprise...you loose the surprise you loose the edge...If you want to unleash all your weapons you will have to do a massive mobilization of you nuclear assets(keep in mind they are well dispersed for many reasons) and there is no way you can escape detection...

well you can chose not believe even a single word of our doctrine but that will not change anything...What i am trying to say is that if our establishment is convinced that an attack is imminent from Pak then there is no way we will wait for all those missiles to land in India...we will unleash everything we have to destroy as much of your stockpile as we can...make sense???

Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is to attack first if we feel any threat to our existence we will launch all nukes to destroy enemy completely first its open secret , yet not declared by GVT but any one can understand its simple.

 

[ares]

A fundamental flaw in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is its complete lack of second strike capability.. Pakistan assumes in all scenarios..Pakistan will be the first to cross the nuclear threshold thereby it does not need a credible second strike capability.

But this approach can used by a determined enemy to its advantage...a preemptive strike(even a nuclear one) against Pakistan's nuclear bases and launch sites can severely limits Pakistan's ability to launch nukes.

As all its nukes are land based(and will remain so for considerable future) makes them vulnerable to preemptive strikes.

 

[I M Sikander]

The problem is that Pakistan wont use just 1 or 10 or 20 nukes , it will clear up the arsenal and fire all at once ...

Dear Who told you this million dollar Pakistani strategy.?

 

[I M Sikander]

A fundamental flaw in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is its complete lack of second strike capability..

Dear how did you come to this conclusion.
Except our NCA, no other country has any idea about Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, So how can you point out fundamentals flaws when you don't even know our nuclear doctrine. Your whole arguments is based on 'X Y Z' assumptions and hypothesis.

Pakistan assumes in all scenarios..Pakistan will be the first to cross the nuclear threshold thereby it does not need a credible second strike capability.

It isn't the need it is about the capability, how can you say that Pakistan don not have a second , third or fourth strike capability. Pakistani nukes are already more in number than india (as reported in all media and intelligence reports). Pakistan already have delivery systems through ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, air crafts and other means. With an extensive network of underground tunnel and deep bunkers for nukes, Y do you think that Pakistan won't reply after first strike in case of (God Forbade) any nuclear war.

But this approach can used by a determined enemy to its advantage...a preemptive strike(even a nuclear one) against Pakistan's nuclear bases and launch sites can severely limits Pakistan's ability to launch nukes.

And you are of the view that Pakistan will sit idle after any such missadventure.

As all its nukes are land based(and will remain so for considerable future) makes them vulnerable to preemptive strikes.

Dude ground based nukes are considered to be the safest in the world. As the technologies for detection of submarine and means to counter them have under gone massive advancement in past two decades, it is comparatively much easier to detect and destroy a nuclear armed Submarine which is all alone in the open sea.

 

[Avatar]

You could have made peace with China and Pakistan any time you wanted. Instead, you claim Pakistani land (such as Kashmir) and Chinese land (such as Aksai chin).

Pakistan has a low nuclear threshold, because Indians keep boasting about "striking" Pakistan, like what happened after the Mumbai attacks.

How can the glorious Chinese brothers maintain such high IQ levels while failing to understand basic facts ?
Coming to more current events, India regards its citizens and guests lives very important and its not easy to let their murder go unpunished when live satellite phone calls are being intercepted that clearly state the murderers origin, intent and motive.
The world has appreciated India for showing resilience and if India ever intended harm to Pakistan, it could have done all the harm it wanted during the time India was the sole nuclear power in the subcontinent. We just want peace and prosperity but all we get is free outsourcing of our own currency manufacturing along with occasional terrorist strikes and zaid hamid's entertainment show.

 

[The Count]

Chaps, Surely the pakistan doctrine is similar to France's during the Cold War? De Gaulle belived that although he could not destroy the Soviet Union he could 'rip off an arm' thus making any attack on France to exspensive to contemplate.

I'm not sure however that Pakistan is under threat for its survival from India and a first strike by Pakistan would be a particlaurly perverse means of protecting Pakistan.

The Count

 

[ziaulislam]

an effective nuclear doctorine is what will stop a war as well as accidental nuclear wars...
i think by not declaring our status itsurves the purpose..
secondly all the indian think tanks know that we have second strike capablity both limited as well as massive....
stargeic war head about 50 of them are enough to wipe all nearly all indian population so thinking that we dont have enough warheads is stupid amateur idea..
delivery system Pakistan has adequate and effective delivery systems..we know about land based ballistic misses and airforce systems..
what we dont know is submersed capability of Pakistan submarines..IF the theories saying pakistan can launch babur through torpedo tube (like tomahawk) are true than i think we have that capability too, but ofcourse we wont declare it because of political issues