pakistan
zia mian
Since its nuclear tests in May 1998, Pakistan has been
rapidly developing and expanding its nuclear arsenal.
It is producing highly enriched uranium (HEU)
and plutoniumthe key ingredients for nuclear weapons
and is increasing its capacity to produce plutonium
by building new production reactors. It is also testing
and deploying a diverse array of nuclear-capable
ballistic and cruise missiles, with ranges from 60 km
to 2000 km.
Even though Pakistan is still developing its nuclear
arsenal, there is some modernization taking place.
Pakistan is moving from an arsenal of weapons based
wholly on HEU to greater reliance on lighter and more
compact plutonium-based weapons. The shift to plutonium
based weapons is being made possible by a rapid
expansion in plutonium production capacity, with two
production reactors under construction to add to the
two reactors that are currently operating. Pakistan is
also moving from aircraft-delivered nuclear bombs to
nuclear-armed ballistic and cruise missiles, and from
liquid-fueled to solid-fueled medium range missiles.
Pakistan has received direct assistance from China for
both its nuclear weapons and missile programmes, and
from North Korea for its missile programme.
There is almost no information about the funding of
Pakistans nuclear weapons programme and little useful
information about Pakistans overall military spending.
It is clear, however, that a significant fraction of
Pakistans financial resources go to its nuclear weapons
programme, but that this cost is not a large share of its
overall military spending. Pakistans military spending
is subsidized by large amounts of military aid from the
United States and subsidized arms sales from China.
Pakistan also receives large amounts of international
aid to help it meet basic social and economic development
needs.
Status of Pakistans nuclear forces
Estimates of Pakistans nuclear weapons stockpile
have grown as it continues to produce fissile material
for nuclear weapons and to expand its fissile material
production capacity, especially for plutonium. According
to a secret US cable published by Wikileaks, US officials
suggested in 2008 that Pakistan was producing
nuclear weapons at [a] faster rate than any other country
in the world.1
As of 2011, the US government estimates Pakistans
stockpile to range from 90 to over 110 weapons.2 This
compares to early 2008 US estimates of a Pakistani arsenal
of 70 to 80 weapons, but possibly ranging from 60
to 90 weapons. These government estimates are similar
to those made by independent analysts (see Table 1).3
There is little information on the yields of Pakistans
nuclear weapons. The yields of the six nuclear weapon
tests carried out on 28 and 30 May 1998 are disputed,
with Pakistan claiming explosive yields of tens of kilotons,
while independent seismologists estimate the
total yields were about 10 kt and 5 kt for the tests on 28
May and 30 May respectively.4
There is also little known about Pakistans weapon
designs, although Pakistan is believed to have received
in the early 1980s a first generation Chinese weapon
design that used HEU.5 The nuclear tests in 1998 may
all have used HEU for the solid or hollow shell (known
as a pit) of fissile material that undergoes the explosive
nuclear chain reaction. Today, Pakistan could use
HEU or plutonium pits, or a combination of both in
composite pits. The use of plutonium allows for the
production of lighter and more compact nuclear warheads,
more suitable for use in ballistic and cruise missile
warheads. Pakistan may also have developed more
advanced boosted weapons, which inject tritium gas
into the pit just before it explodes to increase the fraction
of the fissile material that undergoes fission and sosignificantly increase the explosive yield of the nuclear
weapon. Pakistan is not believed to have developed
thermonuclear weapons (hydrogen bombs).
Delivery systems
Pakistan is still in the process of developing a range
of delivery systems for its nuclear weapons. Pakistan
has a number of short-range, medium, and longerrange
road-mobile ballistic surface-to-surface missiles
(SSMs) in various stages of development. It also is moving
from liquid-fueled missiles to solid-fueled missiles.
Pakistan has received assistance from North Korea and
China with its missile programme.
Pakistan Armys Strategic Force Command has
tested both short- and long-range missiles. The Abdali
missile, with a range less than 200 km, is a simple solidfueled
missile that Pakistan began testing in 2002. A
March 2011 test was described as part of the process
of validation and technical improvements for the missile,
which Pakistans Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff Committee described as providing an operational
level capability, additional to the strategic level capability,
which Pakistan already possess.6
In January 2003, the liquid-fueled Ghauri missile
(sometimes called Hatf V) was inducted into the army.
It is believed to be derived from the Democratic Peoples
Republic of Korea (DPRK)s No-Dong missile. Work on
the Ghauri missile started in the early 1990s and the
first test was carried out in 1998. Pakistan may have received
assistance from DPRK in developing this missile.
The 750 km-range solid-fueled Shaheen-I was handed
over to the military in March 2003.7 It is believed to
be derived from the Chinese M-11 missile and US officials
have suggested China may have provided Pakistan
with M-11 missile components, 34 intact M-11 missiles,
and blueprints and equipment
to build a plant for
making missiles, as well as technical assistance with
further development of this missile.8
Pakistan has developed a second generation of ballistic
missile systems over the past five years. Shaheen-
II is a 2000 km-range solid-fueled missile, first tested
in 2004. In April 2008, the Pakistan Armys Strategic
Force Command carried out a training launch of Shaheen-
II that was reported to have validated the operational
readiness of a strategic missile group equipped
with the Shaheen II missile.9 This suggests that missile
may have entered service.
In 2011, Pakistan carried out the first test of a possible
battlefield nuclear missile, the 60 km-range Nasr
missile, described in an official statement as able to
carry nuclear warheads of appropriate yield and as
consolidating Pakistans deterrence capability at all
levels of the threat spectrum.10
Pakistan is also developing a nuclear-capable
ground-launched cruise missile (Babur) and an airlaunched
cruise missile (Raad) with ranges of about
600 km and 350 km respectively. Pakistan began testing
these missiles in 2005 and 2007 respectively, with
the most recent tests being conducted in 2011.11 The
2005 India-Pakistan Agreement on Pre-Notification
of Flight Testing of Ballistic Missiles commits the two
states to give 72 hours notice before a ballistic missile
flight test and to not test missiles close to their borders.
It does not cover cruise missiles.
Despite frequent media reports, the capabilities of
Pakistans nuclear weapon delivery systems, and the
current status of their technical development and operational
readiness is unclear. Table 2 presents one estimate
by independent analysts.
There is little public information about the storage
and deployment of Pakistans nuclear weapons. It is believed
that missiles are not mated with warheads and
the physics packages (the fissile cores) are not inserted
into the warheads themselves.12 Reports suggest that
while warheads are kept in component form, possibly
by isolating the fissile core or trigger from the weapon
and storing it elsewhere
all the components are
stored at military bases.13
The locations of Pakistans nuclear weapons storage
and deployment are not known with great confidence.
Eight possible sites have been suggested (Table 3).
Fissile materials
There is no official information on Pakistans fissile
material production sitesalthough Pakistan and India
each year exchange lists of nuclear facilities as part
of their 1988 Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack
against Nuclear Installations and Facilities.14 These lists
are not made public, however. They may include both
military and civilian nuclear facilities.