PAFAce
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As of February 16, 2009, the CAS of IAF, ACM Fali Homi Major, was hopeful that "By 2017 we will have what we want", referring to the MMRCA competition. This tells me that he is looking beyond a 2013/14 delivery date, but I may have misinterpreted his meaning. Also, the article was titled "Last Man Standing: Patience will likely be a virtue in India's multibillion-dollar fighter duel", and on the Table of Contents it said "Participants in India's fighter competition girding for long haul, test of stamina for the $10-billion prize". All this points out that the MMRCA selection is way behind where they want it to be (winner announced by 2010), which is understandable, since nobody had initially expected such a huge contest anyway.I think that info is wrong, cause the trials will start between this and next month and a decision will be announced at the end of 2010, or beginning 2011. Production in India will start around 2014 but in the meantime the first squad will be in production outside of India.
That is exactly what I said. The backbone fighter isn't always the best fighter, the one-two punch will still be F-16 MLU/Block52 and FC-20.A solid backbone yes, but but only at the lower end of PAF! You must admit that it won't be as good as J10 or F16 block 52 and these will be the quality fighters of PAF.
It is difficult to say whether the qualitative gap between the PAF and IAF will increase, decrease or remain the same. We must remember that F-16MLU, F-16 Block52s, FC-20 and the Erieye and ZDK-03 combination will significantly boost PAF capabilities. I, personally, expect the quantitative gap to increase, in favor of India, but still remain within Pakistan's comfort zone after the new inductions. As for quality, I can't comment on whether the gap will increase or decrease, there are just too many unknowns. I do expect India to maintain its qualitative superiority for at least a few years.The quantitative edge might be reduced a bit, but with MKI, MMRCA and already inducted AWACS and in development 5. gen fighter the qualitatively edge will stay clearly on IAF side.
Also, as blain said, the IAF is not going to have an operational 5th generation fighter anytime soon. I doubt it will even have one by the end of the next decade since the MMRCA will finish induction in 2020+ (according to your CAS). It would be foolish for the PAF to try to counter that potential threat right now, but planning ahead is always a good idea.
Allow me to respectfully but strongly disagree. I believe the JF-17 is the perfect fighter for us to be producing. Numbers of the FC-20 will increase over time, I don't expect only 36 to be inducted. Just as the IAF is taking its own sweet time in deciding the MMRCA, the PAF is probably doing the same. Any induction in the PAF will have to be reactive, depending on the threat assessment. Give it a few years.IMO PAF is counting on the wrong aircraft and should build numbers of J10 instead of JF17.