sancho
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First of all, I don't think that the best aircraft must win MMRCA, but that aircraft that suits best to MKI, LCA and FGFA, or that aircraft that offers most ToT, even a political choice is likely.i doubt j-10b can compete with the mrca. why? well there are 5 a/c competing and surely the best will be picked and all 5 of those countries have more experience with airplanes than china does and if the best is picked it will CRUSH the j-10b. i mean look at the strengths of all the a/c compared with the j-10b.
-ef has supercruise and good electronics and good ew system
-rafael has 2nd best ew system in the world and claimed to have supercruise
-sh proven in many wars has best and cheapest weapons and also REALLY good aesa and ew systems
-f-16 same as sh
-mig-35 aesa is prolly 3rd best after sh and f-16 and mig has more design experience than dassault or ef team, that combined with proven Israeli/western avionics, ew systems, and tvc make this 1 powerful bird
-gripen ppl say its the underdog but it prolly has the least maintenence costs and can be operated from anywhere and is comparable to the f-16/lca block 2 which has 100 kn engine, aesa, and possibly tvc. there are also reports of it supercruising without weapons load... why's this important? u can get back faster after a mission is done.
I can't agree with you on China and J10, they learned a lot by reassembling Mig 21 and Su 27 and the base of the J10 is the Israeli Levy, which is an improved F16 design. The actual AL 31 engine should provide comparable thrust to J10 as Gripen NG, or F16 block 52 (the GE engines of block 60 have more thrust) and rumors says the TVC nozzels of MKI are on offer. Also there were reports of the same Zhuk AESA radar on offer for J10b in the J10 thread. PAF surley can add western avionics, or weapons like mica on it too and who knows how good the Chinese radar and engine will be, maybe even better than Rafales.
The point is, the base is pretty comparable to F16IN, Gripen NG and Mig 35 and these would give F18SH, EF, Rafale of course MKI also a tough time. Much will depend on which radar, EWS, engine and weapons it will have and how good they will be.