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There is no guarantee that the Indians (hypothetically) wont manage to launch a massive and comprehensive strike destroying/crippling many PAF airbases destroying in the first hours of conflict.A war would likely start with PA/PAF damaging Indian airbases near (within 150km) of the border using artillery, CMs and SOWs. Then, SEAD missions would take place to take out the concentrations of SA-3 batteries near the border. S-400 will be protecting Delhi, Mumbai, and high value targets deep inside India. These SEAD missions (carried out by Mirages or JF-17 - F-16 is too valuable to use HARMs) will be accompanied by F-16s and/or JF-17s supported by AWACs to deal with the IAF.
I think 2030s will be the renaissance decade for the IAF and one can only hope that Pakistan/PAF will be on less shaky grounds by then.
Some snippets from the latest article on IAF plans. The fleet maintenance issues were certainly not helped during Covid and would be strained further this year if the Russian-Ukraine wars drags on. IAF seems to have gotten lucky with the timing or bulking up on spares in 2021.
The newer built Su-30s that will get the upgrade (almost 1/3 of their fleet) will certainly become more potent and we should not expect the same lack of performance from them as in 2019. I am sure PAF is not being complacent either. Good thing is cost is still a big issue (hence not a fleet wide upgrade) but we can bet these upgraded Sukhois will be the ones we will be facing eventually.
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Also just as a reference, wanted to put this here in case next time the resident Indians ask us how much of the JF-17 is really built in Pakistan.
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