PAF preparations for 2020

[WarFariX]

If I may:

1. J-10 (if we can't build JF-17's quick enough to replace our older fighters buying some J-10's can work as a nice alternative).

2. Su-35 (a very good plane that we have been allegedly trying to get, but it's expensive and the PAF hasnt really got much experience with Russian planes other than briefly flying Arab MiG's against Israel).

3. F-16 (a good plane, PAF is very comfortable with it, and given how the F-35 is rolling out to replace it, would be a good time to go shopping for em, unfortunately, Americans are being rather stubborn and its an old platform).

4. Mirage 2000 (can buy used ones from the Arabs, good planes too but are also an old model).

5. MiG-29 (good F-16 substitute, but is yet another old model).



Superior? I don't really think so, I'd say they are on close terms, but the J-10 does have the upper hand right now. When block 3 rolls out things may be different, but as of now, the J-10 is better.

Yes I agree they wouldn't bring any new value, but if we can't make JF-17's quick enough to replace our old jets, then we should buy the J-10 as we are familiar with Chinese fighters and they are pretty good.

personally i want our mirages to be replaced by j10c

 

[Hassan Guy]

I think the roadmap for 2020 can have a few elements:

1. Full speed ahead with JF-17. Need to increase capacity for both internal and external demands since sales increasing.

2. Might need to increase capacity on Super-Mashshak line as well due to increasing sales.

1 and 2 above means, theoretically, PAF should have enough cash. For qualitative drivers:

a. With money in hand, SU-35 might be a brighter prospect. But what surprises me is no one on this forum mentions the historical lack of quality in Russian planes. If a lesson is to be learn from India's Russian fleet, it is that they are high maintenance in the long term. Even if the option is on the table, I would want PAF to maybe get a test plane and use it for a year to see what kind of maintenance demands it generates. I don't have good feelings about Russian quality control in aircraft.

b. In general, the threat needs to be analyzed. The capabilities of the MKI, Jaguar, and Rafael fleets needs to be compared with our air defence systems, F16s, and JF-17s, and the gaps need to be identified. The procurement strategy MUST be about closing the gap, rather than acquiring shiny new toys. It might turn out that the gaps are better closed by acquiring S-400. Now that is a force multiplier I would like to see in Pakistan, and in large numbers as well.

c. The Typhoon needs to be evaluated on the weapons package as already explained by @Bilal Khan (Quwa) but also in terms of maintenance, spares, and sanctions.

d. Advanced Chinese fighters should be explored. To what level China is willing to share advanced technology is something only high level officials would know. Not much point discussing here on the forum.

All in all, I am leaning towards option b and d above.

For the long term, we MUST invest in R&D for our own 5+ gen fighter.

Give this man a positive rating

 

[WarFariX]

and alsoi would suggest Paf to if notpossible V uograde for f16s then go for turkishF16 update program named as özgür which introduces turkish aesa radar which will be ready by 2020 and some other avionics also along

 

[Storm Force]

Someone made a very good point about Russian maintenance record

From a indian point of view the main issues are their engines require high maintennance . This is why IAF chose the USA GE engine F404IN for the tejas fighter.

PAF will know this by now has the THUNDERS have Russian engines RD93

The other main issues with ruissian weapons is the price hikes and long delays for spare parts increasing down time.

Once again with MKI the Indians habve started sourcing indian raw materials for some spares

 

[tarrar]

I don't know if the PAF is looking at them but Italy and Spain are offering their Typhoon Tranche 1s to the market. The issue though, besides having to foot for bespoke upgrades (for future-proofing), is the weapons package. Seriously, what are we going to be able to buy for those Typhoons? We'd have to use our AIM-120C5 stock, I guess, but what else (without drawing India's ire)? A-Darter for HOBS is plausible, but for BVR we would be stuck.

Typhoon would be a good choice for PAF. But the question is, when PAF shows interest in buying Typhoon from either one, will they stick to the sale or will they back off? I am pretty sure Italy will not back off & will want to sell Typhoon to Pakistan. The offering of package with the Typhoon might be an issue. May be because of Typhoons limitations to carry limited weapons that PAF wants but then eventually we will find out once the interest surfaces between Pakistan & Italy.

In the end I believe, Typhoon will be an excellent choice for Pakistan & Typhoon will be a great pick to replace the old dying fleet of F7 & Mirage

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Typhoon would be a good choice for PAF. But the question is, when PAF shows interest in buying Typhoon from either one, will they stick to the sale or will they back off? I am pretty sure Italy will not back off & will want to sell Typhoon to Pakistan. The offering of package with the Typhoon might be an issue. May be because of Typhoons limitations to carry limited weapons that PAF wants but then eventually we will find out once the interest surfaces between Pakistan & Italy.

In the end I believe, Typhoon will be an excellent choice for Pakistan & Typhoon will be a great pick to replace the old dying fleet of F7 & Mirage

From my reading, the supplier channel isn't the main issue: Italy (and Spain) won't be using the old planes, they want to buy new planes, and they want old planes to help pay for new planes. I just think the main issue will be the need to talk to Leonardo and/or BAE to create a bespoke upgrade to bring the Tranche 1s up to par for the future. Not impossible, but (best case) will add some time and cost to the final system. OTOH, if the final ROSE-esque package is good and comes at a total unit cost of $125m for the upgraded plane and 5-10 years of maintenance support, then we won't get much better.

 

[Hassan Guy]

Typhoon would be a good choice for PAF. But the question is, when PAF shows interest in buying Typhoon from either one, will they stick to the sale or will they back off? I am pretty sure Italy will not back off & will want to sell Typhoon to Pakistan. The offering of package with the Typhoon might be an issue. May be because of Typhoons limitations to carry limited weapons that PAF wants but then eventually we will find out once the interest surfaces between Pakistan & Italy.

In the end I believe, Typhoon will be an excellent choice for Pakistan & Typhoon will be a great pick to replace the old dying fleet of F7 & Mirage

I do agree, however the Typhoon is incredibly expensive. Kuwait bought only 28 for 9 billion dollars.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

I do agree, however the Typhoon is incredibly expensive. Kuwait bought only 28 for 9 billion dollars.

We're talking about Italy's used Typhoon Tranche 1s. They have 28 units for sale at around $1.5bn US, and Spain put their Tranche 1s on the market for $70m a unit or so.

 

[Hassan Guy]

We're talking about Italy's used Typhoon Tranche 1s. They have 28 units for sale at around $1.5bn US, and Spain put their Tranche 1s on the market for $70m a unit or so.

Really? The Tranche 1 is useless, India just bought the most advanced rafales.

 

[Avicenna]

Typhoon would be great because of the diversity of supplier and potential access to Meteor and other quality western munitions however i just dont see PAF going in that direction.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Really? The Tranche 1 is useless, India just bought the most advanced rafales.

That's why we're also talking about the need to upgrade them with AESA radars et. al.

 

[Hassan Guy]

That's why we're also talking about the need to upgrade them with AESA radars et. al.

Then why not just buy the Tranche 3?

 

[hussain0216]

By 2020

150 JF 17s
( 100 Block 2s 50 Block 3s with some block 3 features transferred to the block 2s)

76 F16s
(Possibly some second hand ones as a boost)


80 Mirages and 120 F7ps should remain but some on the way out




Indian procurement, development and maintenance has always been comical and has given us time

Our investment in air defence will continue and the JF 17 is being undervalued which may work for us



I do think that the PAF will go down the J31 route working with the company for a bespoke Pakistani model that we can maintain and improve
It will go down the Jf17 route where we will get the freedom to induct and mate weapons of choice and availability



So far so good with the JF17S being continually improved


Problem is J31 timeline till maturity
They are working all out but it will be around 2022 when they can start providing in numbers snd then you have issues of training etc although maybe we can start early

PAF knows something we dont this is why they are looking for a good inbetween aircraft

J10 - no point its on par with F16s and JF17s Block 3

F16s - possibly but any other U.S platform is out of the question

We have a chance at a Russian or European platform but it will depend on alot of factors


Again the way the indians work and **** up gives us atleast some time

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Then why not just buy the Tranche 3?

"I do agree, however the Typhoon is incredibly expensive. Kuwait bought only 28 for 9 billion dollars."

https://defence.pk/threads/paf-preparations-for-2020.468332/page-4#ixzz4TcCStn8E

 

[Avicenna]

I wonder if individuals related to procurement for PAF visit this message board.