PAF preparations for 2020

[dadeechi]

The realistic chance.....only J-10 Cs....plus depends upon our economy a lot....May be some odd chances of Su-35s if we shall have a capacity to buy them.

J-10s : No

SU-35s : Yes

 

[Valar Dohaeris]

Do you people know how much BVRAAM capacity PAF have ?

 

[dadeechi]

No way for the Su-35 because the Russians won't give it much support with a war against India.

J-10's and J-11's are not gonna happen either.

I would turn to western europe but they have decided not to build a 5th gen fighter.

Russia is already selling SU-35s to China.

Why do you think they would not sell & support SU-35s in case of Pakistan?

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Are ROSE-Is used for air interdiction? I would have thought they were only good enough for interception / air defense.

You're right. The heavy would replace the ROSE-I in the fleet, but also expand upon it with OCA. In this respect the Su-35 would be a very valuable asset.

 

[WarFariX]

Unlike its enemies , PAF is has low budget and thus takes long time to save up money to procure new products. After PAF upgrades all thunders to block 3 standards + 76 F-16s (18 block 52) , it will have a great force but not enough to hold off Many mkis and rafales. Now when people talk about SU-35 , They forget that SU-35 if PAF would ever seeked for then it wouldnt make a max fleet of more than 36. Those 36 SU-35 could help much but only until the opponent gets S400 and also super sukhoi upgrades. Super sukhoi upgrades will definitely be to some level on par with SU-35 so again now as quality gap lessens , quantity gap matters and as you know PAF wont be able to afford and MAINTAIN more SU-35s. So in easy worda , those SU-35s procurement would goto rubble. Now talking of eft , eft and rafale are are tough competitors of each other and pilot skills matter in their combat . India plans currently to get 36 rafales. EFT purchase for PAF is a big hurdle plus they are expensive and high risk of sanction during war. So this option must be clearly out of mind. Now answer to the stupid rumours that PAF will get SU-35/Eft , look as i mentioned earlier , PAF is low budget , and as india last month again showed their strong interest in T-50 modified version FGFA , tbh this jet would be available to be inducted by 2025 and if PAF gets eft or su35 now than PAF wont have money until at least 2028 to get a 5th gen platform.. This way IAF's big jump towards FGFA could prove disastrous for whole of PAF imaginary fleet of su35/eft and also to F-16s and JF17s. The best answer to Rafale would be J-31 v2 because rafale will give india access to MBDA meteor missile with range more than 200km. So along with J-31 , Paf will get PL-12G , PL-15 and possibly modified PL-21 VLRAAMs believed to be more than 400+km which along with combined advantage of stealth couldale the purchase of s400 and rafale useless for india as J-31 would give PAF superiority overall. Not to forget that rafale itself is very low rcs aircraft so even eft will have hardtime tracking it. And what we believe is that sonce now China is inducting J-20 this month, SU-35 bought by china will be stationed on Gwadar to protect port as it is on lease with china so it is China's sole responsibility to protect it by means which Pakistan cannot such as naval and aerial threats. Land threats can easily be neutralised by Pak army.
40-50 J-31 along by time period of 2022 so rafale will have its opponent ready. After completing the block 3 and possibly block 4 , PAC must start focusing on 5th gen project as stated multiple times by Airchief that PAF will have indigenous 5th gen fighter by 2030 so those indigenous will replace F-16s while J-31 could prove stopgap amd counter rafale. As for MIG-29 and other indian jets , Pakistani SAMs such has HQ-9 and HQ-16A/B are very much enough and even could prove deadly for mkis since HQ-9 is a modified better version of S300.

 

[Hamza913]

The Current PAF fleet

cosists of

18 block 52 falcons
55 falcons a/b
70 thunders mk1/2
80 mirages 5
120 F7 P/PG

How does this need to change by 2020 TO FACE the changing threats

Something to note is many F-16's have been upgraded to block 50 standard. Last time I checked less than 20 of them are still A/B.

 

[WarFariX]

Something to note is many F-16's have been upgraded to block 50 standard. Last time I checked less than 20 of them are still A/B.

only 12 F-16s arent upgraded which are F-16 ADF (air defence fighters )

 

[Hassan Guy]

THE F35 is on order from the 16 nations

And these are pre orders with delivery scheduled upto 2025

we are talking NOW between TODAY and 2020

PAF will have to fight

rafales equipped with ,meteore BVRS and spectra EW suites
mirage2000 with mica bvrs new hmd and radars
su30mki pesa radars and tvc
mig29smt/k upgraded with new radars missles /HMS

THERE ARE OPTIONS but what will you do ??????????????????? realistically

Could you lay out the options?
Other than the JF-17 Block 3.

 

[Hamza913]

The IAF's numbers are going to decrease significantly in the coming years, so the gap won't face that much of a boost tbh.

J-10s : No

SU-35s : Yes

Think you got that the wrong way around.

 

[dadeechi]

The IAF's numbers are going to decrease significantly in the coming years, so the gap won't face that much of a boost tbh.



Think you got that the wrong way around.

JF-17s would be superior to J-10s.

J-10s would bring no value to PAF.

 

[Hamza913]

Could you lay out the options?
Other than the JF-17 Block 3.

If I may:

1. J-10 (if we can't build JF-17's quick enough to replace our older fighters buying some J-10's can work as a nice alternative).

2. Su-35 (a very good plane that we have been allegedly trying to get, but it's expensive and the PAF hasnt really got much experience with Russian planes other than briefly flying Arab MiG's against Israel).

3. F-16 (a good plane, PAF is very comfortable with it, and given how the F-35 is rolling out to replace it, would be a good time to go shopping for em, unfortunately, Americans are being rather stubborn and its an old platform).

4. Mirage 2000 (can buy used ones from the Arabs, good planes too but are also an old model).

5. MiG-29 (good F-16 substitute, but is yet another old model).

JF-17s would be superior to J-10s.

J-10s would bring no value to PAF.

Superior? I don't really think so, I'd say they are on close terms, but the J-10 does have the upper hand right now. When block 3 rolls out things may be different, but as of now, the J-10 is better.

Yes I agree they wouldn't bring any new value, but if we can't make JF-17's quick enough to replace our old jets, then we should buy the J-10 as we are familiar with Chinese fighters and they are pretty good.

 

[Storm Force]

Could you lay out the options?
Other than the JF-17 Block 3.

Imo REALISITICALLY in the next 3 years FOR PAF to get a shot in the ARM or a BOOSTER JAB

1., To reapproach USA and negotiate for 18 block 52 @ 1.5 billion dollas
2. If Trump does not play ball with financial assistance OR the indian lobby dstops additional falcons block 52 THEN PAF have to pursue used second hand F16 from Jordan x 14 planes

3. Least likely Flankers from Russia @ 20 planes...
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Either way I expect the quality gap to grow substantially by 2020 in indian favour

36 rafale F3 with RBE2 Aesa Radars /spectra ew suites & meteore BVRS will be one generation ahead of PAF F16/52

50 Mirage2000/5 with new RDY radars new HMD and MICA bvrs gives india a new advanced western figter equal to anything in PAF.

272 su30mki & over 100 mig29smt/k gives IAF huge numbers pay load and range.

Finally by 2020 even the Tejas MK1 will be equipping 2 sqds with python & derby missles and the dash 5 HMS .

The quality of radars ew suites HMD/HMS displays and missle inventory in india by 2020 is a generation head

 

[CriticalThought]

I think the roadmap for 2020 can have a few elements:

1. Full speed ahead with JF-17. Need to increase capacity for both internal and external demands since sales increasing.

2. Might need to increase capacity on Super-Mashshak line as well due to increasing sales.

1 and 2 above means, theoretically, PAF should have enough cash. For qualitative drivers:

a. With money in hand, SU-35 might be a brighter prospect. But what surprises me is no one on this forum mentions the historical lack of quality in Russian planes. If a lesson is to be learn from India's Russian fleet, it is that they are high maintenance in the long term. Even if the option is on the table, I would want PAF to maybe get a test plane and use it for a year to see what kind of maintenance demands it generates. I don't have good feelings about Russian quality control in aircraft.

b. In general, the threat needs to be analyzed. The capabilities of the MKI, Jaguar, and Rafael fleets needs to be compared with our air defence systems, F16s, and JF-17s, and the gaps need to be identified. The procurement strategy MUST be about closing the gap, rather than acquiring shiny new toys. It might turn out that the gaps are better closed by acquiring S-400. Now that is a force multiplier I would like to see in Pakistan, and in large numbers as well.

c. The Typhoon needs to be evaluated on the weapons package as already explained by @Bilal Khan (Quwa) but also in terms of maintenance, spares, and sanctions.

d. Advanced Chinese fighters should be explored. To what level China is willing to share advanced technology is something only high level officials would know. Not much point discussing here on the forum.

All in all, I am leaning towards option b and d above.

For the long term, we MUST invest in R&D for our own 5+ gen fighter.

 

[Avicenna]

I think there maybe a a few spare F-16s picked up here and there.

Other than that it will likely be more block2 Jf-17.

Continue work on block 3.

In terms of a new platform, maybe I am assuming too much, but I am thinking Pakistan, China, and Russia have some sort of "arrangement".

So maybe Su-35. Maybe J-11D. Maybe J-10B/C.

Ultimately PAF knows best as to which capabilities each system brings and which is available.

 

[WarFariX]

Imo REALISITICALLY in the next 3 years FOR PAF to get a shot in the ARM or a BOOSTER JAB

1., To reapproach USA and negotiate for 18 block 52 @ 1.5 billion dollas
2. If Trump does not play ball with financial assistance OR the indian lobby dstops additional falcons block 52 THEN PAF have to pursue used second hand F16 from Jordan x 14 planes

3. Least likely Flankers from Russia @ 20 planes...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Either way I expect the quality gap to grow substantially by 2020 in indian favour

36 rafale F3 with RBE2 Aesa Radars /spectra ew suites & meteore BVRS will be one generation ahead of PAF F16/52

50 Mirage2000/5 with new RDY radars new HMD and MICA bvrs gives india a new advanced western figter equal to anything in PAF.

272 su30mki & over 100 mig29smt/k gives IAF huge numbers pay load and range.

Finally by 2020 even the Tejas MK1 will be equipping 2 sqds with python & derby missles and the dash 5 HMS .

The quality of radars ew suites HMD/HMS displays and missle inventory in india by 2020 is a generation head

That is y many senior analysts saythat 5th gen platform At this stage will give PAF superiority for a decade or more....read my huge analysis aboveplz...and also dont start thatj31 is atleast decade away or shit....when Yinks said that it will enter mass production by 2019 so that means it will