PAF ‘OPS SWIFT RETORT’ and the effectiveness of air power

[Armchair]

The enemy is busy learning from their mistakes and will get help to correct them. Once that does happen they will mow through us like a hot knife through butter.
Because our finances are failing and our equipment is long in the tooth.

The point MK is making is that when we had the chance to "mow through them like a hot knife through butter" we didn't have the balls to do so. Not now, not in 65 and in fact, never. Every chance we get, we surrender it. Right now we let Modi win when we could have severely damaged his campaign. We let the MKIs go. We let the sub go. No self-respecting nation would have done these blunders.

@MastanKhan thank you for your analysis.

So, basically, all Pakistan can do is keep defending while it gets chipped off bit by bit. East Pakistan, Siachin, TTP, BLA, MQM, bit by bit, in the long term, the only conclusion is, Pakistan will be chipped away. There is no reposte.

 

[tkmd]

Those criticizing why the block 3 JFT is being put up against the rafale are missing the point. Pakistan is bankrupt. We can't afford a wheel on the Rafale. This is a fact. So the JFT will have to do. And the events of this engagement show that our forces are more than prepared for limited engagements with these fascist mongrels.

The only thing that our government needs to do is fix this f&%&$( economy. Educate our masses and make them skilled workers and use them to build our financial abilities. Our forces can handle these mallus. But they need the economy to give them the funds.

 

[CriticalThought]

I never doubt the strength of Spectra Suite. Rather its always an advantage having RWR,Radar and Jammer from the same source/country to that they are well integrated.

My point is that while Rafale’s Spectra will deny thunder/F-16 a solid lock but then you can not straight away underestimate the capability of F-16 EW suite and the one on the JF-17.

PAF has vast experiance of EW employment from foreign exercises and then this ACE concept. You all saw that on 27th Feb. While the mini-AWAC (Su-30) was busy dodging and getting kicked we have local air superiority.

Rafale as an individual is a tough nut to crack but then with limited help from ground and no data link with other platforms it going to get a tough time against a more number of JF/F-16 combo supported by better integrated EW

And lastly, lets don’t estimate the Chinese tech. They may be behind aerospace and engines due to metallurgy but Electronics, man they are good at it. Recent experiance of PAF against PLAAF during exercises showed a lot about Chinese Tech.

Here is the situation. Pakistan doesn't have semi-conductor manufacturing. Consequently, PAF has zero knowledge and expertise of sensor manufacturing. They do not understand the state of the art in the field. Which means they don't even understand the extent of French capability. They cannot make a good judgement call on characteristics such as component density, the semi-conductor band gap, power efficiency etc. Without knowing the hardware, they will assume characteristics such as radar temperature that go into computations of radar performance.

Next, Pakistan has no AESA radar manufacturing facility. This means PAF has zero knowledge about the subtlety of AESA characteristics in state of the art systems. How many T/R modules can be fit in a given space? What types of beams can be formed and independently controlled? They may have experience with Chinese systems, but what is the state of the art? Without intimate knowledge in this area, tactics such beaming, exploiting the radar notch become suspect.

Pakistan has not much research into detection algorithms. Maybe some at NUST but certainly not world beating. Today there is a huge body of research that looks at non-Gaussian characteristics of radar response. And partners of Dassault hold extensive IP in this area. They literally define the state of the art.

Here is what PAF us actually capable of. It buys electronics off the shelf and is given a manual detailing capabilities. In order to maintain manufacturer warranties and agreements, it must operate them within specified parameters. They develop their tactics on top of that and are limited in what they achieve as a result. Understand this: PAF is only capable of achieving what its suppliers allow it to achieve. No more and no less.

With Rafale, Dassault's reputation is at stake. It will do everything to guarantee its success against PAF. It has much deeper relationships with suppliers like SAAB. Its engineers understand SAAB systems better than PAF.

This is what PAF is really up against.

 

[blain2]

Thank you for your reply. I understand that it may be possible to meet them in the EW arena, more or less. However, the kinematics, the aerodynamics and the BVR capability of the Rafale, when combined, gives them a decisive edge to shoot first, and from a better vantage. We don't have anything to counter this. That's a technical bottleneck IMHO.

BVR capability has to be handled by PL-15. Kinematics and aerodynamics matter more in a close-in fight so this boils down to employment of asset. Whosoever employs the assets more effectively will have a better day.
Lets also be mindful that we are not going to have parity everywhere and our defense planners are aware of this. But we will always retain the ability to hit India back and there is nothing they can do about it. There in is the value of deterrence.

I recall a certain interview with a Special Forces commander who was constantly being asked in an interview that your adversary has done this and this to plug their gaps so how will you interdict and surprise, and his response was "yes they have plugged in gaps, but we will have to find new ones".

Therein lies the approach to these challenges.

One option is to just gripe that we don't have this or that, but you go to war with what you have and you make it work. Even if our economy was sound, it would not allow us the fiscal space available to India. On the other hand, PAF is not being sent to fight a war with nothing. There is a significant capability available that can bring down a devastating impact on the adversary. It may not be of the same quantum as that of the other side, but it is enough to give the other a serious pause and this is speaking only in the conventional realm.

 

[Armchair]

BVR capability has to be handled by PL-15. Kinematics and aerodynamics matter more in a close-in fight so this boils down to employment of asset. Whosoever employs the assets more effectively will have a better day.
Lets also be mindful that we are not going to have parity everywhere and our defense planners are aware of this. But we will always retain the ability to hit India back and there is nothing they can do about it. There in is the value of deterrence.

Actually not. I've read convincing literature of the benefits of kinematics and aerodynamics in BVR combat, particularly for platforms like the Eurofighter and F-22 (and Rafale??). Legacy platforms, even F-16s don't compare. These planes were designed for BVR combat from the ground up. Unlike what we have.

 

[loanranger]

AVM Malick,

Tactically the Paf failed to take advantage of the situation. The enemy had already announced what it was going to do prior to the night of the 26th---it had hinted strike at known locations---and yet the Paf failed to take action.
Paf was basically not prepared to challenge the enemy the first night. When the enemy came---the Paf shooed it off and was happy at it---. If it was not for the public outrage and outrage from junior officers---the Paf was well set and satisfied with the action.
The action taken on the 27th was incomplete---. It reminded of the 65 war when Akhnoor was not attacked and taken for the fear the indians would start an all out war and yet they did---.
The Paf let the IAF escape one more time. This drama of originally targeting certain areas then moving the target away---that was so childish an immature that one can only laugh at it---.
Then to top it all off---the pak military allowed the most modern indian sub to escape intact---even though that would have evened the score for the Atlantique---sheer incompetence and cowardice---.
If it was israel attacked in that manner by its enemies---they would have smashed the enemy assets for at least 24 hours---.
Pakistan's reaction also showed that the Paf has truly become a defensive air force---it was caught short of frontline aircraft at a very critical time and it failed to take advantage of the situation presented to it on a platter by an incompetent enemy---.
The sad part over here is that my brethren over here are pretty much illiterate & worship the Paf second only to Allah and cannot see any faults in their incompetence---.
For this little incidence of success---Paf has given away its tactical secrets for such a small success---. What a shame.
MastanKhan @ Defence.pk forums

They were ready to missile us to the stonage just because we brought a few planes down and bombed a few targets. Imagine if we had availed the other oppurtunities that you validly point out.
Could we have sustained a full blown war just to even a past grudge?
They attacked with the USA's And their masters consent.This time the US would have not even bothered to pretend to send an A/C carrier.
Pakistan has few friends and fewer resourses so we shall always be on the defensive.Thus we will never have the shiny toy's.So the trick is not to feed the ego to much. Had the PAF been in the IAFs position and acted meekly then you are absolutely right..... Thanks

 

[blain2]

Actually not. I've read convincing literature of the benefits of kinematics and aerodynamics in BVR combat, particularly for platforms like the Eurofighter and F-22 (and Rafale??). Legacy platforms, even F-16s don't compare. These planes were designed for BVR combat from the ground up. Unlike what we have.

Fair enough if you have read to the contrary but in my simple mind, it all boils down to employment. With a comprehensive employment strategy with a mix of 4/4.5 gen platforms and force multipliers, the Rafale threat can be handled.

 

[PradoTLC]

no doubt PAF didn't let us down...

poor Indians felt sorry for them

 

[blain2]

The point MK is making is that when we had the chance to "mow through them like a hot knife through butter" we didn't have the balls to do so. Not now, not in 65 and in fact, never. Every chance we get, we surrender it. Right now we let Modi win when we could have severely damaged his campaign. We let the MKIs go. We let the sub go. No self-respecting nation would have done these blunders.

@MastanKhan thank you for your analysis.

So, basically, all Pakistan can do is keep defending while it gets chipped off bit by bit. East Pakistan, Siachin, TTP, BLA, MQM, bit by bit, in the long term, the only conclusion is, Pakistan will be chipped away. There is no reposte.

Because emotions should not drive national strategy. The response was calibrated and appropriate. Both of these have a very significant meaning. We don't want a war. That is Pakistan's entire national security strategy. It boils down to one basic line I.E. "Pursuit of national interests through avoidance of war." War is a ruin for everyone so why would Pakistan escalate, kill personnel on the ground and do material damage disproportionately so then the other side has to respond in order to do face-saving?

They did not kill anyone on the ground in Pakistan. Now you want Pakistan to not only draw blood, but go all out?

No self-respecting nation rushes to war to ruin itself and its future generations. It's not something to be taken lightly or waged to assuage bruised egos.

If they have done damage, we too have done a lot of damage to them and so it goes. None of the damage is existentialist and in order to pursue your interests, you have take the losses with the gains.

 

[Flight of falcon]

Hi,

If you had known your religion better---you would be accusing and specially in Ramazan---.

Know your religion youngman---know your religion---.



Hi,

Flanker myth is not smashed---. It only got a minor scratch---& it is very much alive---.

Now if the Paf had gone on a one day rampage on all the frontline bases with positive results---maybe you could claim that---.

Now regarding your having dinner with a Paf officer and then claiming about Flanker myth--you can talk tough with me---but you are clueless about the enemy fire power / and the resource of the Flanker---and the Paf's blunder of letting it escape---/

I think you misunderstood.... I really don’t know you or care who you are to talk tough. But bro who taught you to speak like this? I mean I have known some very arrogant people but you beat them all. Do you know how stupid and baseless your 400000 posts are that you are so proud of? I went through a few and had to stop. I am not a kid. I am 45. I mean I would love to know what your back ground is and who taught you to think and type like the way you do.

Sorry for the personal attack but may be someone needs to show you the mirror and help you realize how stupid you sound when you post your trash claiming to be all knowing lord of the war and destruction. Have you ever shot a rifle in your life?

 

[MastanKhan]

I think you misunderstood.... I really don’t know you or care who you are to talk tough. But bro who taught you to speak like this? I mean I have known some very arrogant people but you beat them all. Do you know how stupid and baseless your 400000 posts are that you are so proud of? I went through a few and had to stop. I am not a kid. I am 45. I mean I would love to know what your back ground is and who taught you to think and type like the way you do.

Sorry for the personal attack but may be someone needs to show you the mirror and help you realize how stupid you sound when you post your trash claiming to be all knowing lord of the war and destruction. Have you ever shot a rifle in your life?

You don't like my posts---okay---no problem---why don't you write something---. It is an open forum---. Writing is the best revenge---.

You may not like what I write---and that is your choice---. I write what I know---.

There are many here who don't like me---there are many here who like me---we agree and we disagree---we get mad at each other---but we keep moving forward---.

Paf did perfectly fine job..that shows will power of a nation.if can show their enemies right path then what is point to develop tactics...this operation has given paf a great marketing..all major military establishments of the world stll surprised and shocked..they gave them best possible weapons. When testing came they were blind.. it is great shock..now we have to utilise this in political way...anyway I dont agree with you point of view..shar ki din ki zingi gedear ki 100 sale ki zindgi see betar hain

Hi,

Perfect my foot---. The ACM was happy with what he had done---if it was not for the reaction of the public and the juniors---he was satisfied.

The majority world is shocked at india's incompetence---. The americans and israelis knew what pakistan had---and the Paf gave them the details by showing off---.

Read this posts--- Today at 4:02 PM#30 ---and there are others like this one---.

We gave away our secrets for nothing---just for a little show & pomp---.

 

[masterchief_mirza]

Exchange of air firepower between IAF and PAF on 26th and 27th does suggest that there will always be space for conventional exchange between two neighbouring nuclear-armed states. It would seem that early employment of air power may become a new normal in any future battle scenarios between India and Pakistan. It would thus be extremely vital for Pakistan military and civilian leadership to understand the importance of the air force and ensuring its future transformation to dominate the operational environment that is rapidly and continuously evolving in spheres of technology / capability.

One small point: I would be shocked if Pak military planners were only just coming round to the base reality that most symmetric military encounters since WW2 are either dependent on or indeed decided by the correct deployment of air power. Any major military action by any major power has been predicated on air superiority first and foremost, with some exceptions in cases of totally asymmetric warfare e.g. Soviet campaign in Afg. So no need to lobby for this. PAF is the pivot upon which all Pak military operations depend.

 

[SQ8]

The point MK is making is that when we had the chance to "mow through them like a hot knife through butter" we didn't have the balls to do so. Not now, not in 65 and in fact, never. Every chance we get, we surrender it. Right now we let Modi win when we could have severely damaged his campaign. We let the MKIs go. We let the sub go. No self-respecting nation would have done these blunders.

@MastanKhan thank you for your analysis.

So, basically, all Pakistan can do is keep defending while it gets chipped off bit by bit. East Pakistan, Siachin, TTP, BLA, MQM, bit by bit, in the long term, the only conclusion is, Pakistan will be chipped away. There is no reposte.

Its not all black and white. The issue lies in indecisive leadership and also the pressures of our allies/friends/powers.

In 65 our plan would have mauled the IAF if not for leadership change at the last minute and the usual self serving suckups foiling our plans. The the IAF behaved the same way it did on the 27th.

In 71 the IAF came back well trained and will a plan, yet we stuck to ours and survived an onslaught.
However, the enemy was able to take the narrative of us attacking their airfield as the trigger to war and they could have repeated it this time as well.

The problem is that when the National leadership has decided that we shall not provoke an all out war and are only engaging in “aggressive diplomacy” then the engagement has to be controlled and strict RoEs adhered to.

Yes, the PAF could have brought down many more IAF aircraft that way by crossing into India deeper but the idea was to not take unnecessary risks both tactically and diplomatically.

The mistake made later had nothing to do with the PAF but with the usual failure of our foriegn office and associated fat flabby corrupt bureaucrats who were unable to wrestle a narrative properly everywhere.

The mistake is our media incapable of pushing a brainwashed narrative like theirs does.

But the crucial mistake was made years earlier when Pakistan was made.. and we never got rid of the ethnic lines or self serving sycophants who took power and looted our coffers throughout.

There are still personnel within the PAF who may have let their American handlers know of any plans.. who may warn the Indians.. there are those who would roll away and bug out at the first sign of a BARS radar showing up on their RWR.. and there are those that made millions by fleecing the PAF for spare purchases or useless equipment.

As long as they and the many remain in our society, India had, has and will continue to defeat us in wars no matter how many small battles we win.

 

[randomradio]

@Hellfire

The bigger they are the harder they fall. Eh?

Here is the situation. Pakistan doesn't have semi-conductor manufacturing. Consequently, PAF has zero knowledge and expertise of sensor manufacturing. They do not understand the state of the art in the field. Which means they don't even understand the extent of French capability. They cannot make a good judgement call on characteristics such as component density, the semi-conductor band gap, power efficiency etc. Without knowing the hardware, they will assume characteristics such as radar temperature that go into computations of radar performance.

Next, Pakistan has no AESA radar manufacturing facility. This means PAF has zero knowledge about the subtlety of AESA characteristics in state of the art systems. How many T/R modules can be fit in a given space? What types of beams can be formed and independently controlled? They may have experience with Chinese systems, but what is the state of the art? Without intimate knowledge in this area, tactics such beaming, exploiting the radar notch become suspect.

Pakistan has not much research into detection algorithms. Maybe some at NUST but certainly not world beating. Today there is a huge body of research that looks at non-Gaussian characteristics of radar response. And partners of Dassault hold extensive IP in this area. They literally define the state of the art.

Here is what PAF us actually capable of. It buys electronics off the shelf and is given a manual detailing capabilities. In order to maintain manufacturer warranties and agreements, it must operate them within specified parameters. They develop their tactics on top of that and are limited in what they achieve as a result. Understand this: PAF is only capable of achieving what its suppliers allow it to achieve. No more and no less.

With Rafale, Dassault's reputation is at stake. It will do everything to guarantee its success against PAF. It has much deeper relationships with suppliers like SAAB. Its engineers understand SAAB systems better than PAF.

This is what PAF is really up against.

Had pointed it out long ago. As long as Pakistan does not make its own sensors and equipment, it has no expertise in this field. So the forces can only use what others think is fine for Pakistan's needs and not what Pakistan actually needs. That's why India started a massive indigenisation program since the 80s and we are reaping the benefits now.

The army operates the Samyukta and more recently Himshakti systems. The navy operates tech developed under Project SANGRAHA. And the air force operates all indigenous EW suites in the Mig-29 and MKI, and similar systems in dedicated EW aircraft.

 

[Army research]

I disagree with the assertion that limited air battle is possible between nuclear adversaries. This mindset seeks to deny or underestimate the existential threat posed by India with full support of a West that is uncomfortable with our nuclear arsenal. It ignores the geo-political realities of the threat of FATF black listing, financial terrorism, and fomenting unrest in the country through proxies.

The next battle may very well be a naval battle. An enemy bent on overpowering us will seek the weakest point. The enemy already understands the efficacy of our air power. It may test the naval power next. Which doesn't mean air power should be ignored, but it cannot be given a single minded focus either.

Such naval confontration will only come if they block our trade or related event , and that equals to the trade of the glorious communist republic of China as well and will bring the might of the PLAN and give it the excuse to set up base in the Indian ocean specifically the Arabian sea