PAF in 2015 & 2025

[Iceman2]

Assalam-o-Alikum

What do u ppl think abt the future of PAF :flag: in 2015 & 2025 what would it be like?

By 2015 PAF should be like this

150 F-16 A/B/C/D - Upgraded to Block 52+ standards
150 Jf-17
50 J-10 A/B
50 J-10 C/D (Super 10)
60 Mirage ROSE II/III



By 2025 PAF should be like this
150 F-16 C/D 50/52
200 JF-17 A/B & C/D
100 Advanced J-XX
50-60 Eurofigther OR 70-75 JAS-39 Gripen E/F
25 F-22 Raptor OR JSF-35B+ (if available)
150 J-10 C/D+


Plz reply positively,optimistically and try to be realistic as well.

 

[Owais]

There is no chance of getting F22 or JSF. but its possible that we may have 70-80 EUFTyoon till 2025.

 

[A.Rahman]

We will get F-22 when we become 51st US state or when they make someting like enterprise that shoots phasers..

 

[Nasir]

F-16s will definately be not in that numbers, the numbers will decrease over time. Secondly, We will not possibly be getting 100 J-XX fighter aicrafts if we get 150 J-10s. We will either have J-10, J-XX, or Typhoon/Rafale.

 

[Quwa]

PAF by 2015;

• 36+ F-10A/B
• 36 F-16C/D Block 52+
• 60 F-16A/B MLU
• 150+ JF-17

That is as real as it can possibly get; the PAF might add another 30 or so new and used F-16s - but that too under extreme conditions. Besides that, the PAF will procure at least an additional squadron of F-10A/B; and the JF-17 fleet will increase IMO. Anything beyond that would require very tough circumstances - something drastic enough to make PAF procure many more F-16C/Ds and a 4.5 generation fighter from Europe.

Although there was mention of FC-20; that could range from a new J-10 variant or perhaps J-11B. However, unless SAC adds cost-effective engines anad localizes the J-11 110% - I doubt PAF would buy it.

 

[melb4aust]

PAF by 2015;

• 36+ F-10A/B
• 36 F-16C/D Block 52+
• 60 F-16A/B MLU
• 150+ JF-17

That is as real as it can possibly get; the PAF might add another 30 or so new and used F-16s - but that too under extreme conditions. Besides that, the PAF will procure at least an additional squadron of F-10A/B; and the JF-17 fleet will increase IMO. Anything beyond that would require very tough circumstances - something drastic enough to make PAF procure many more F-16C/Ds and a 4.5 generation fighter from Europe.

Although there was mention of FC-20; that could range from a new J-10 variant or perhaps J-11B. However, unless SAC adds cost-effective engines anad localizes the J-11 110% - I doubt PAF would buy it.

I agree with you on the upper figure you've shown, But i am sure no matter what happens PAF is gonna induct J-10, but in small numbers. Just wait and see what India choose for their 125 MRCA's. Though i am not sure how long we have to wait.

 

[niaz]

This is all very well, but would we have the funds?. Chances are that we would have a fully democratic gov't by 2015. Would they have the same commitment to bolstering PAF as Mush.

 

[melb4aust]

This is all very well, but would we have the funds?. Chances are that we would have a fully democratic gov't by 2015. Would they have the same commitment to bolstering PAF as Mush.

It is hard to predict, you never know! even its hard to predict with today's goverment what they are gonna do next. These are all assumptions we made by looking at different events that occured in past and happening today.

2 or 3 years back no 1 could had even predict that the Pakistan can have F-16's in future. Then that earth quake incident happened and so on...

 

[Quwa]

This is all very well, but would we have the funds?. Chances are that we would have a fully democratic gov't by 2015. Would they have the same commitment to bolstering PAF as Mush.

Regardless who is governing Pakistan - democratic or military - the military is always modernized as long as there is strong public opinion and as long as the military is still a powerful institution. It is the one thing all Pakistani governments could do to save their faces; there will be changes in who Pakistan buys from and what not - but the commitment will be the same.

I think the J-10s and other Chinese equipment are coming at discounts on behalf of China to ensure their export success. If something works in Pakistan - a lot of third world nations will show interest; so J-10s, JF-17s, Y-8 AEW, etc, will definitely involve Chinese subsidies. F-16s might be covered by additional U.S aid in the future as the payment plan is 10-15 years.

 

[Neo]

How heavily is this equipment subsidised Mark?
Can we still make it as cheap or even cheaper as China under full ToT?

 

[Quwa]

How heavily is this equipment subsidised Mark?
Can we still make it as cheap or even cheaper as China under full ToT?

Given the fact that the PAF would risk another 20 years on American fighters; I would say that American subsidizes must be present - at least 50% of the deal should be covered, otherwise Pakistan would not have agreed. If Pakistan was paying for those F-16s entirely - it would've not put itself on the stake for new built aircraft valued 3bn USD! Remember the payment is over a good 10-15 years - it can be covered within the hundreds-millions each year; which the U.S could provide as compensation for the WOT.

As for Chinese equipment; I think the JF-17, Y-8 AEW&C, and land based air defence are coming on discount - they are primarily targetted for export. Their success in Pakistan - a hostile region and mixed heavily with Western and Russian weapons - would be vital for export success in countries in the class of Pakistan. Since Pakistan will be importing local production technology for JF-17 and hopefully other projects - the costs will go up and seem more in tune with the original price. Pakistan has no industrial capability (currently) to produce fighters; and it will take time and a lot of money to get that industrial strength. So the bulk of the expenses in the JF-17 will go into the upgrades (IRST, HMS, Western avionics?) and local production facillities - as opposed to buying the basic airframe and engine.

The J-10 purchase is likely NOT subsidized - as it is China's most expensive fighter; Pakistan is likely receiving a soft loan on these aircraft, and very comfortable payment periods. China is not pinning its J-10 for export - and it would sell them to very close countries; and it is likely that the PAF will be getting J-10s on the same level as PLAAF J-10s - and similar upgrades. Mainly due to the fact that PAF chose the aircraft on the basis that it is the next best thing to Block 52+; and due to the fact that IAF is not getting any weaker. If anything, China would want the J-10 purchase/sale to tell the world that Chinese aircraft are in the same league as higher-tier 4th generation fighters.

China has been very soft on Pakistan; the F-22P light frigates and Z-9EC helicopters were bought using Chinese loans - it is likely J-10 will follow suit. Type 054 was also offered - but likely as a proper deal as the PN Chief at the time said they were too expensive; this was back in IDEAS 2004. The situation has changed quite a bit; we might see Pakistan announce acquisitions such as heavier frigates from China - like Type 054 - and maybe even advanced lead-in jet trainers, L-15?.

Summary; I would say export oriented weapons will be offered and sold to Pakistan at heavy-discounted prices - JF-17, Y-8 AEW&C, F-22P, etc. The higher tier stuff such as J-10A, L-15, Type 054 would be sold at similar standards as PLA counterparts and at comfortable payment installments.

 

[genmirajborgza786]

recently i heard that around 75 or so jas39 grippen's from saab ,swiden is up for sale as the compony is in some financial trouble i think pakistan should utilize this oppurtunity to see if it can get the grippen along with TOT that would be realy one of the best things that can happen at this time about f-16's my only concern is the delivery and i have doubt's regarding that any political change in pakistan which is not in the U.S intrest can sabotage it in no time so its better to get something rather then nothing we have to take all the pictures in to account so i guess, the following will do alot better if all the cards are played well. INSHA'ALLAH
(sorry i am not in to the f-16 fantacy)

75 jas 39 with tot (if possible)
150 jf-17
60 j-10 (in totall)
40 french rafale's or euro fighter typhoon( since their is an indication of that in the PAF)
25 jxx
25 sakui 34 (if we can uitilze the russia card which we should , no matter what)
36 -mig 35( in the same line as the above)

this the best deal we can get. yes we have to work for it no doubt about it but if we are serius their is a chance in todays changing geo-political allainces, of which alot of diplomatic efforts and hard choices( spacialy regarding russia) will have to be made which we should do coz it's in our best interest.

 

[Iceman2]

i opened this thread to know ur views abt PAF in 2015 & 2025 what would it be like?
and about gripen. i heard in the interview that paf was offered TOT for Gripen but they refused.

i would also like to know that as LM is closing the production line for F-16 can we push them for TOT???
and what is the version of radars of pakistani f-16 c/d and what r it's specifications?????

 

[Neo]

Given the fact that the PAF would risk another 20 years on American fighters; I would say that American subsidizes must be present - at least 50% of the deal should be covered, otherwise Pakistan would not have agreed. If Pakistan was paying for those F-16s entirely - it would've not put itself on the stake for new built aircraft valued 3bn USD! Remember the payment is over a good 10-15 years - it can be covered within the hundreds-millions each year; which the U.S could provide as compensation for the WOT.

As for Chinese equipment; I think the JF-17, Y-8 AEW&C, and land based air defence are coming on discount - they are primarily targetted for export. Their success in Pakistan - a hostile region and mixed heavily with Western and Russian weapons - would be vital for export success in countries in the class of Pakistan. Since Pakistan will be importing local production technology for JF-17 and hopefully other projects - the costs will go up and seem more in tune with the original price. Pakistan has no industrial capability (currently) to produce fighters; and it will take time and a lot of money to get that industrial strength. So the bulk of the expenses in the JF-17 will go into the upgrades (IRST, HMS, Western avionics?) and local production facillities - as opposed to buying the basic airframe and engine.

The J-10 purchase is likely NOT subsidized - as it is China's most expensive fighter; Pakistan is likely receiving a soft loan on these aircraft, and very comfortable payment periods. China is not pinning its J-10 for export - and it would sell them to very close countries; and it is likely that the PAF will be getting J-10s on the same level as PLAAF J-10s - and similar upgrades. Mainly due to the fact that PAF chose the aircraft on the basis that it is the next best thing to Block 52+; and due to the fact that IAF is not getting any weaker. If anything, China would want the J-10 purchase/sale to tell the world that Chinese aircraft are in the same league as higher-tier 4th generation fighters.

China has been very soft on Pakistan; the F-22P light frigates and Z-9EC helicopters were bought using Chinese loans - it is likely J-10 will follow suit. Type 054 was also offered - but likely as a proper deal as the PN Chief at the time said they were too expensive; this was back in IDEAS 2004. The situation has changed quite a bit; we might see Pakistan announce acquisitions such as heavier frigates from China - like Type 054 - and maybe even advanced lead-in jet trainers, L-15?.

Summary; I would say export oriented weapons will be offered and sold to Pakistan at heavy-discounted prices - JF-17, Y-8 AEW&C, F-22P, etc. The higher tier stuff such as J-10A, L-15, Type 054 would be sold at similar standards as PLA counterparts and at comfortable payment installments.

Thanks for the detailed analysis Mark.
You certainly know your stuff! :thumbsup:

 

[Quwa]

recently i heard that around 75 or so jas39 grippen's from saab ,swiden is up for sale as the compony is in some financial trouble i think pakistan should utilize this oppurtunity to see if it can get the grippen along with TOT that would be realy one of the best things

The Swedish Air Force is not having any financial trouble - it just does not see the need of 200+ JAS-39 Gripens; and the JAS-39A/B are quite old and have been in service for at least 10 years. What the PAF could do is procure them and upgrade them to C/D or custom standards; but that would be quite expensive, and would also negate the role of JF-17. Gripen was designed as a defensive fighter - yes the JAS-39C/D is more advanced; but eventually surpass it after 2-3 massive upgrades - which according to previous PAC C&Cs will happen every 5 years of JF-17's service/production.

ToT is a broad term - it could range from maintenance and upgrade facilities to production factories; the PAF's C&C said that Pakistan does not have the industrial might to absorb fighter production capability. In fact, JF-17's production within Pakistan Aeronautical Complex will be done in successive phases over a fairly long period of time; and there is no way to start such a thing within 5-6 years. Pakistan will start out with maintenance depots, upgrade facillities, spare-parts production, avionics production, local assembly and eventually full-time production. As you can see its a very long and detailed process; and in order for it to successfully work, a lot of money in education (may it be civil or military) and technological R&D will be needed.

Simply put, Pakistan cannot absorb massive Gripen ToT; if it were to procure Gripen, the best it can do is hope to produce some of the avionics as well as the given maintenance and upgrade depots.

that can happen at this time about f-16's my only concern is the delivery and i have doubt's regarding that any political change in pakistan which is not in the U.S intrest can sabotage it in no time so its better to get something rather then nothing we have to take all the pictures in to account so i guess, the following will do alot better if all the cards are played well. INSHA'ALLAH
(sorry i am not in to the f-16 fantacy)

No offence, but you're the one who is fantasizing and dreaming. Look at the facts my friend - the F-16 deal has been signed and the Gripen was dropped in favour of J-10 (at present). There are many factors involved within the F-16 deal that must have pushed the PAF over towards it; I even named a major factor in my previous post. The acquisition of five different platforms in addition takes dreaming to a new level; it is unlikely the PAF will procure a fourth new platform - it will only happen if something drastic happens over the border.

There is no way the PAF will procure a substantial number of twin-engine fighter aircraft - it simply does not fit in with the PAF's doctrine. Had you kept simply the Gripens in your list - then there'll be some feasibility; however EF-2000, Russian MiGs and Sukhois - and that too all at once, not possible.

this the best deal we can get. yes we have to work for it no doubt about it but if we are serius their is a chance in todays changing geo-political allainces, of which alot of diplomatic efforts and hard choices( spacialy regarding russia) will have to be made which we should do coz it's in our best interest.

I hope I do not offend you; but you have gone beyond dreams if you think the list you presented is economically and politically feasible. I suggest you learn a few things about maintenance, logistics, actual fighter costs, etc, before making irrational statements like above.