PAC And China,s JXX/J14 Project

[gogbot]

Gogbot

This post is specially for you, though i think Taimi Khan answered your queries in very effective way, but you dont seem to be convinced, so here are some thoughts. I posted it in some other thread started by the same respectable member, Storm Force, where he was trying to prove that since PAKFA has made its appearance so Jf-17 program is totally outdated and would be waste of resources.



I think this post should satisfy all of your quires.
(By the way kinshuk, this post got thanked by your Favorite critic Mastan Khan).

Secondly you said, something about J-10 delivery as was late by a good 10 years, now this is what i called ignorance, J-10s delivery was due back in 2009, and deal was almost done, but it was the same J-10 A, with some minor modifications as per PAF requirements, But thanks good and thanks to the thinking heads in PAF, who realized, that in order to meat the challenges posed by MKIs and more then that of the coming MMRCA , they actually need a top notch fighter, and therefore they postponed the delivery in favor of J-10 B until 2013-14. So this the actual logic behind postponing the J-10 A delivery. Please surf around a bit you will find all the truth, you need.

Now some buddy referred to the engine problem associated, Indeed that was true with W-10S and W-10SA, but that has been solved to a greater extent if not completely, and that's why, it is now being used on J-11B, Check it out and you find those pictures.
But more importantly, the engine used proposed for JXX is WS-15 and not WS-10 series, which is totally different from WS-10 series, and the Chinese authorities are very much impressed with its progress and apparently has not met any major setbacks, its very much in its final stages and that's why the Chinese, has even released its Images for the first time. here is the treat for you, enjoy.




Another thing some buddy talked about advance avionics, quiet right but sorry again you guys don't seem to update yourselves with right information. Now i cant discuss more about it but show some more delights, its totally real and not faked or PS.

this one is for J-14. The one pitted against F22


I have a video for it but i cant upload it, need some Chinese, member help to upload that video from the Chinese forums or websites.


These are for J-15 or J-20, the one pitted against FA-35

These are real images and nothing fake in it.I have some more, but cant copy them, due technical problems on the respected sites, and more over the pity is my attachment limit is long over.

I firmly believe china will test fly its Fifth generation fighter between 2011 and 2012. I can put a wager on that. They had firm belief in themselves that's why the opted out of PAKFA, that's a very bold decision, either your stupid to take such step or you have better then whats offered. Now you select any which you like for china.

To add to it, I believe JXX will be much better design wise as compare to PAKFA, as J10 is to SUs or MIGs. China is a giant which has fully awaken and is enjoying a roller coaster ride of Political, Economical and Technological advancements. It will surpass its Adversaries and competitors without even letting them know, and
wave them a good by with a lot of smiles.











adios

Thank for the reply sir.

And i agree with you one these points,

J-XX program exists. It will see some sort of fruition in this decade
China will give it to Pakistan.

I only disagree on the when will Pakistan get the J-XX

i am trying to say is that China wont be able to give it to Pakistan, until the plane is fully developed, and China has satisfied its own security needs first.

Do remember, China inducted the first regiment of J-10s in 2004, and within 2 years of induction in PLAAF, we had decided to acquire it. So it did not took 10 years after which China decided to give it to us, rather just after 2 years of its induction or becoming operational with PLAAF, we were given the go ahead by the Chinese. So it may give you an idea that if we did want J-XX, it won't take 10-15 years, rather just a couple of years or so.

Exactly China saw to its needs first and then two years latter after it was confident with the aircraft enough for production to increase it choose to share with a close ally. After which Evaluations and negotiations commenced.

China has no imminent threat, but we do have, so if we request, we can get items on priority, which we saw in the past also.

So end is, that if we request and a threat is looming, we can get anything from the Chinese on priority basis, even if it has to make Chinese induction stopped for the time being.

Forgive me here , but China is making the J-xx for its needs not those of Pakistan.

They should be concerned enough that Russian USA and India are flying around in stealth aircraft. To see to their needs first before they sell to others even allies.

Not to mention Taiwan is still hot point for war.

And yeah, Chinese have the full capacity to increase production when required, which we are seeing now, with the rate of induction of J-10s. In 2004 first regiment got operational. Regiment consists of around 26 aircrafts. And as of 2010 the rough figure of J-10s in service publicly are 200+, meaning approx 40 aircrafts produced per year, which is quiet a large figure.

Of course but first.

China needs to develop, Production version. at least 8 years away at best.(unless you are telling me China is ahead of Russia)


Then it needs to get IoC, so quality production and maintained issues can be ironed out.

After FoC PLAAF needs to induct the plane is greater numbers. Till they feel they can counter their Security threats.

Then China announces to the world. PAF can then evaluate the aircraft. Negotiations will then commence.

After which orders are placed, with delivery commencing a year or two latter.

All this puts the first J-xx in Pakistani hands at reasonalbe estimates 10-15 years from now.

 

[aimarraul]

Thank for the reply sir.

And i agree with you one these points,

J-XX program exists. It will see some sort of fruition in this decade
China will give it to Pakistan.

I only disagree on the when will Pakistan get the J-XX

i am trying to say is that China wont be able to give it to Pakistan, until the plane is fully developed, and China has satisfied its own security needs first.

there are two J-XX program(SAC ,CAC are both working on 5TH gen jets)，keep this in mind.i think PAF will only purchase the single engine version.

 

[Tiger Awan]

there are two J-XX program(SAC ,CAC are both working on 5TH gen jets)，keep this in mind.i think PAF will only purchase the single engine version.

There are rumors that PAF has been directed not to buy a twin engine aircraft.

But it may be because PAF plans to induct Chinese twin engine stealth version and donot want to have many twin engine aircrafts in its inventory.

 

[SBD-3]

There are rumors that PAF has been directed not to buy a twin engine aircraft.

But it may be because PAF plans to induct Chinese twin engine stealth version and donot want to have many twin engine aircrafts in its inventory.

its about performance, rather than engines.....look at J-10B....So I think PAF will choose what would match FGFA.......or may opt to buy an out performer in small quantity (perhaps 2 squads)

 

[Adios Amigo]

There are rumors that PAF has been directed not to buy a twin engine aircraft.

But it may be because PAF plans to induct Chinese twin engine stealth version and donot want to have many twin engine aircrafts in its inventory.

PAF is modernizing itself according to a plan known as, PAF Modernization Plan 2019 which prohibits PAF from acquiring a double engine platform. JXX will be coming after 2019, most probably around 2021-2022, so one can safely assume that PAF can induct a double engine platform then at time. Moreover as it will be inducted in less numbers so, it wont be any problem.

Apart from that, as per my knowledge both variants of JXX are, double engined.












adois

 

[MZUBAIR]

taimikhan,

I just forgot to add something in my previous post.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/military-aviation/45982-pac-china-s-jxx-j14-project-2.html#post651803

When you said



I have just realized something, any 5th gen fighter China makes is going to cost 100 million or more.

SO do the math on that and

Each squadron will cost you 1.6 billion dollars. For purchasing the aircraft alone.

That's almost half the defense budget for one squadron

I want an honest opinion here, how much of that do you believe that budget can take.

So ur Mr Accountant of Russian and chinees 5th gene fighters.......Could u plz tell us the unit cost of Russian or Chinees 5th gene fighter unit, which are not even evaluated.

5th gene crafts are from new technology, as Russia and China will start production, the overall cost would be decreased........F-22/35 are expensive coz they r unique and lot of money spend by Americans on R&D, where as China and Russia will learn from observations......they wouldnt have to spend more on R&D as US did..........so the more chances that these crafts would be cheaper then westerns as we already saw that J-10B, SU 30, Mig 35, Su 35 are cheaper then any western 4.5th gene air craft.

 

[gogbot]

there are two J-XX program(SAC ,CAC are both working on 5TH gen jets)，keep this in mind.i think PAF will only purchase the single engine version.

I was under impression they were both running competing designs,
Under two separate projects.

 

[albwd]

Off-topic, but so whispers President Zardari: s.u.b.m.a.r.i.n.e.s.

 

[baba firangi]

Get me a source which says it will cost 100M US$s, then we will talk.

There is no source which says that the J-XX(or whatever the heck it will be called as) will EVER be given to Pakistan either.. just inferences and possible scenarios based on past practices...

Everything is just speculation out here... Including the name of the aircraft as well..

 

[TaimiKhan]

There is no source which says that the J-XX(or whatever the heck it will be called as) will EVER be given to Pakistan either.. just inferences and possible scenarios based on past practices...

Everything is just speculation out here... Including the name of the aircraft as well..

Whatever makes you happy is acceptable to us.

So enjoy and keep dreaming

 

[LCA Tejas]

What is that Which makes Pakistan think That China would sell them JXX In which pakistan is not involved at all... Even If they sell , How will pakistan be able to afford it, now dont tell me that china will sell it with TOT so that pakistan can manufacture it... Now please no Off topic comments, please do answer this question

 

[TaimiKhan]

What is that Which makes Pakistan think That China would sell them JXX In which pakistan is not involved at all... Even If they sell , How will pakistan be able to afford it, now dont tell me that china will sell it with TOT so that pakistan can manufacture it... Now please no Off topic comments, please do answer this question

If you read the posts above yours, you will get the answer that how will we afford it and how have we been affording in the past and present.

 

[LCA Tejas]

If you read the posts above yours, you will get the answer that how will we afford it and how have we been affording in the past and present.

Forgive me sir, But A stealth fighter would cost very high than the other medium class fighters for sure... I have no doubts that Pakistan can Buy it, but cannot afford it on a larger scale, But without TOT Its of no great help for developing nation's ,may it be India or Pakistan.

Like FGFA is coming with TOT and It will Help in the production of MCA.

So sir please Enlighten us by saying how J-XX will be Inducted into PAF and Will Pakistan go for JXX to Counter FGFA which India will produce and Purchase in a higher Scale?

 

[TaimiKhan]

Forgive me sir, But A stealth fighter would cost very high than the other medium class fighters for sure... I have no doubts that Pakistan can Buy it, but cannot afford it on a larger scale, But without TOT Its of no great help for developing nation's ,may it be India or Pakistan.

Like FGFA is coming with TOT and It will Help in the production of MCA.

So sir please Enlighten us by saying how J-XX will be Inducted into PAF and Will Pakistan go for JXX to Counter FGFA which India will produce and Purchase in a higher Scale?

First of all the Chinese fighter aircrafts and the stealth ones won't cost as high if compared to western ones. So comparing western prices to chinese ones won't be suitable. Won't go in detail, but just to give an idea, in the west the manufacturers are private organizations, so they look for profits & good amounts in their prices, their labor cost is very high, in west if one technician or worker working on the stealth program lets suppose earns 100,000US$ per year as wages, in China may be the whole pack of laborers or technicians working on the fighter aircraft may be earning 100,000US$, so in the end you have just millions of dollars difference just in the labor category. Rest of the issues which make up the cost are beside of this one little factor.

Read one of my posts above, in which i have told about the present and past sellers credit based weapon purchases. So we can very well afford them based on these terms.

And as per past history, we can never match IAF in 1:1 ratio, so in the stealth category also, we don't need to match IAF 1on1, 2:1 or even 3:1 can be acceptable. Meaning is IAF has 150 of PAK FAs, we can go with 50-60 or so of the J-XXs.

And yeah, as the production increases, as China would be needing hundreds of these, the cost of production will go down too.

We can't predict about the too far future, but foreseeable future, we can have 3-4 Sqds to have credible deterrent against IAF.

Do remember, we don't have any near future western weapon system purchase possibility, so we can divert our funds to the Chinese platforms without much problem.

 

[LCA Tejas]

First of all the Chinese fighter aircrafts and the stealth ones won't cost as high if compared to western ones. So comparing western prices to chinese ones won't be suitable. Won't go in detail, but just to give an idea, in the west the manufacturers are private organizations, so they look for profits & good amounts in their prices, their labor cost is very high, in west if one technician or worker working on the stealth program lets suppose earns 100,000US$ per year as wages, in China may be the whole pack of laborers or technicians working on the fighter aircraft may be earning 100,000US$, so in the end you have just millions of dollars difference just in the labor category. Rest of the issues which make up the cost are beside of this one little factor.

Read one of my posts above, in which i have told about the present and past sellers credit based weapon purchases. So we can very well afford them based on these terms.

And as per past history, we can never match IAF in 1:1 ratio, so in the stealth category also, we don't need to match IAF 1on1, 2:1 or even 3:1 can be acceptable. Meaning is IAF has 150 of PAK FAs, we can go with 50-60 or so of the J-XXs.

And yeah, as the production increases, as China would be needing hundreds of these, the cost of production will go down too.

We can't predict about the too far future, but foreseeable future, we can have 3-4 Sqds to have credible deterrent against IAF.

Do remember, we don't have any near future western weapon system purchase possibility, so we can divert our funds to the Chinese platforms without much problem.

Thanks for the Answer sir, Satisfactory answer..... But U still havent answered my Important question, Let me put it in this way...

Every Developing country wants to be self sufficient and That too When it comes to defense, So Will pakistan be able to get the TOT from the chinese by just ordering 50-60 JXX? It would not even yield them the Invested Cost in the program.... Well,This is a serious issue to Look into....