Outside View: Pakistani Thermidor?

[sonicboom]

Outside View: Pakistani Thermidor?

Dec. 23, 2009 at 9:00 AM
By HARLAN ULLMAN

WASHINGTON, Dec. 23 (UPI) -- Winston Churchill characterized Soviet Russia in terms of riddles and enigmas. Pakistan today can be characterized as seemingly implacable contradictions and collisions between immovable objects and immutable forces -- potentially creating the "mother of all quagmires." A critical question is whether these competing concurrent centrifugal and centripetal forces bring Thermidor to Pakistan?

Pakistan faces potentially nation-wrecking economic, political and security crises in which policies to resolve one exacerbate the others. A pertinent example is support for U.S. actions in Afghanistan and against all persuasions of Taliban. One guaranteed consequence is huge increases in anti-Americanism and even greater opposition to the government. In essence, unchecked, Pakistan could be headed for a political meltdown in which an already dysfunctional government becomes even more dysfunctional and therefore unable to put the nation back on a sage course.

The catalyst that has unleashed this potential for Thermidor was the Supreme Court ruling that abolished the National Reconciliation Ordinance put in place two years ago by President Pervez Musharraf as part of an agreement that permitted former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto to re-enter her country and granted immunity to some 8,000 other politicians largely of the Pakistan's People's Party accused of corruption and fraud. Bhutto was assassinated on Dec. 27 of that same year.

The decision was hailed by a large majority of Pakistanis who believe that an independent judiciary is not only central to a functioning democracy but also as the first step in bringing corrupt politicians to justice. Because of his past reputation, President Asif Zardari was immediately and viciously attacked and demands for his resignation along with many of the government's ministers filled the media. The facts that Zardari was imprisoned for 11 years without a conviction and the notion that citizens are presumed innocent until proven guilty so far have been overlooked or ignored.

But make no mistake. Zardari and his government risk being drowned in a flood of lawsuits and litigation that will follow the abrogation of the NRO. An already dysfunctional government could too easily be rendered impotent and useless, contributing to greater public outrage demanding some measure of government performance.

Much of this furor arises from a mixture of Pakistani society and culture in which rumor, innuendo and bizarre conspiracy theories pass as accepted truths and facts; and ill-conceived bureaucratic government actions. Consider just a few of the more ludicrous examples. After 247 politicians mostly from the PPP were put on a list preventing them leaving the country, the defense minister, Ahmed Mukhtar, was stopped at the Islamabad airport before boarding a flight for an official trip to China. Then, the press reported Interior Minister Rehman Malik had been arrested.

The prime minister had to go on television to refute the false reports over Malik's arrest and cancel the hold on travel, suspending the number two in the interior ministry and other officials for foolishly promulgating the list in the first place. And it gets worse. A very senior retired Pakistani general said the following: "A former head of Pakistan's Inter-service Intelligence agency ISI declared on television that Blackwater was involved in bombings in Pakistan. A former Pakistani Army Chief of General Staff told viewers that America was behind the destabilization of Pakistan."

In this increasingly septic environment, even reasonable conduct often begets minor forms of Thermidor. U.S. Embassy personnel normally keep license plates inside the car as a security precaution to prevent ease of targeting. But when stopped at Islamabad's many security checkpoints, Pakistani police and soldiers, many of whom speak no English, regard this practice as breaking the law and confrontations arise that are widely reported on television.

Rumors abound over a huge secret presence of hundreds of U.S. military members with ulterior motives. Yet this is absolutely false. And the failure of the Pakistani government to grant visas for U.S. government personnel has hurt Pakistan as there are insufficient Americans to process the aid and support that country desperately needs.

Can anything be done by Pakistanis to end this vicious cycle, and to what degree should America help or remain aloof so as not to exacerbate these conditions?

Two actions are crucial. First, Zardari needs to emerge as a statesman and leader and convince his fellow citizens that the principal danger is the insurgency and these domestic diversions must be redressed if the nation is to succeed. Returning power to the National Assembly and the prime minister that had been seized by Musharraf could help this transformation.

Second, there needs to be a serious and comprehensive strategic discussion between the United States and Pakistan to create a comprehensive plan of action for both countries that deals with these multiple crises and the media frenzy that prefers rumor and scandal to fact and reality. Otherwise, Thermidor could be inevitable.


(Harlan Ullman is senior adviser at the Atlantic Council and chairman of the Killowen Group that advises leaders of government and business.)


Outside View: Pakistani Thermidor? - UPI.com

 

[illuminatus]

First things first! Who is Harlan Ullman? Answer: "Harlan K. Ullman (born March 15, 1941), is a political author, commentator, and a retired United States Naval Commander. He is an advisor to government and the private sector and is active in transformation both of business and the Department of Defense. Ullman is known as a developer of the doctrine of Shock and Awe."

Source: Harlan K. Ullman - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It's obvious that such one-sided rant can only be expected from someone that holds ulterior motives. Motives that are related to his/her interest and pay check.

Secondly, haven't we just had enough of the lecturing on what Pakistan must and mustn't do? It's high time that the people of Pakistan took matters into their own hands and decided their own destiny instead of being lectured what they should and shouldn't do.

 

[khanz]

lol this author seems frustrated a change is coming to pakistan for the better their interfence is finally slowly starting to be checked their puppet zardari is going down and i say good riddance.

 

[PAFAce]

Firstly, Thermidor was the revolt against The Terror and The Great Terror spread by Maximillion Robespierre and his fellows in the "Committee for Public Safety" during the early part of the French revolution. So, if I get this article correct, it criticizes Pakistanis for revolting against terror of the "governing body" as was done by the French. I, personally, see little wrong.

I don't care what any American "expert" has to say. The annulment of the NRO is one of the best things to happen to the country in a while. It's put fear into the hearts and minds those who have used Pakistan as their personal playing ground for many years. These same actions anywhere else in the world would be welcomed by the "leftists" all over the world, but because it's Pakistan and the people under most threat are the people who are most favorable to Western interests, it is being given a bad rep.

But now to touch upon some other points:

The decision was hailed by a large majority of Pakistanis who believe that an independent judiciary is not only central to a functioning democracy but also as the first step in bringing corrupt politicians to justice. Because of his past reputation, President Asif Zardari was immediately and viciously attacked and demands for his resignation along with many of the government's ministers filled the media.

The people of Pakistan have every right to ask Zardaro for a resignation, even if it is due to his "past reputation". His "past reputation" as Mr. 10% was established when he was merely the husband of the head of state, so it's perfectly logical for the people of Pakistan to question his activities since he was appointed President. People were asking for Richard Nixon's impeachment and/or resignation even before the "Smoking Gun" audio-tape was revealed. Why is it okay for the American's do that, but not okay for Pakistanis to even suggest that he resign?

It's ridiculous to suggest that the people of Pakistan are somehow to be blamed for wanting Zardari out of power, when this man himself has probably never spent any time living in Zardari's Pakistan. He seems to be a fan of the French Revolution, he should realize that Asif Ali Zardari is Pakistan's King Louis XVI, and his cronies are all a band of Marie Antoinettes.

The facts that Zardari was imprisoned for 11 years without a conviction and the notion that citizens are presumed innocent until proven guilty so far have been overlooked or ignored.

He can lodge a legal claim against this, the judiciary is independent now. However, this does not justify his actions before or since.

Much of this furor arises from a mixture of Pakistani society and culture in which rumor, innuendo and bizarre conspiracy theories pass as accepted truths and facts; and ill-conceived bureaucratic government actions.

And of course, the Americans never believe what is fed to them I mean, right? 62% of the American population were convinced that Saddam Hussain's Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction in significant quantity to pose a threat to American interests, despite UN committees saying otherwise. This number does not represent those who believed Iraq had WMDs but was not a serious threat. So, when it comes to the public's awareness, this man would be surprised to see how informed most Pakistanis are on these issues. That is because, unlike American civilians who only see the War on TV, Pakistani citizens have to face this war every time they wake up in the morning.

In this increasingly septic environment, even reasonable conduct often begets minor forms of Thermidor. U.S. Embassy personnel normally keep license plates inside the car as a security precaution to prevent ease of targeting. But when stopped at Islamabad's many security checkpoints, Pakistani police and soldiers, many of whom speak no English, regard this practice as breaking the law and confrontations arise that are widely reported on television.

This is just pure misinformation. The majority of Islamabad Police have at least enough English-speaking capabilities to have the drivers produce identification. Does this man know that Pakistan is in the middle of a war? What right does he have to be complaining about American diplomats being asked to produce proper identification? To blame it all on the Police's English speaking skills is a pathetic attempt to mask the arrogance and ignorance on display by American diplomats in Pakistan on a regular basis.

First, Zardari needs to emerge as a statesman and leader and convince his fellow citizens that the principal danger is the insurgency and these domestic diversions must be redressed if the nation is to succeed.

Bad idea. Zardari has little to no credibility. As far as PR goes, he is worse for the Americans than Musharraf was, because at least he had support from a few within the Armed Forces. The Americans would do well to deal with the legitimately elected leaders of Pakistan, and not the person who is most willing to bend to their wills. When it comes to mending relations with Pakistanis, the focus is being put on entirely the wrong issues. I have posted elsewhere what I think would best help mend our relations, so I won't repeat it here.
http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakist...engthen-pakistans-sovereignty.html#post591043