Option's for PAF ?

[Armchair]

Money remains an issue plus threat of sanctions.
I have been following this debate.
There are 2 questions which need answering in my view.
Which platform and when.
What is the need.
The need is evident. Mirages are long past their prime and need replacing. However the issues are perrenial for PAF. Firstly where is the money going to come from. Secondly currently PAF is all hands on deck integrating JFT into the system. Block 3 is going to be inducted and with newer capabilities will need a lot of work utilizing newer te h to the max. We have seen PAF has not been able to stand up more than 1 squadron a year inspite of potential for production being upto 25 units/yr. In this environment I dont see anything new coming till at least 2020/21. I more squadron will be stood up in the interim possibly before a hiatus for retooling in preparation for block 3. There are foreign orders to be filled as well.
So whatever happens will happen afterwards.
Now this period in my view is crucial. Our adversary will be inducting the Rafale which is a very capable platform. Any capability acquired would have to be technologically superior to it as paisa for paisa Indian buying power will always be more than ours. In this light in my humble opinion SU or EFT can ony provide appropriate/comparative capabilities which can be countered by increasing the numbers of Rafales. This is a problem that PAF has to grapple with.
Taking it further again there are also a myriad of issues with integrating both platforms. Potentially both are sanctionable as well.Then lack of commonality of spares and weaponry creates additioanl headaches as well as integrating diverse hardware into the netcentric environment. This makes it unlikely for PAF to acquire any of these platforms in my opinion.
The answer has to be Chinese platform. The queztion is which?
In my humble opinion J10 does not give us the bang for buck. It will therefore be either the J11/16 or J20/31or similar AC.
THE problems with J11/16 are known. Which makes me think it will have to be the latter. Any escort mission/work horse jobs will be assigned to progressively advanced JFTs as it seems the most logical solution given the paucity of funds involved.Of the 2 even though the 20 is much more capable it is an overkill for PAF so either J31will be acquired which has multiple advantages or a similar fighter will be inducted. 2 -3 squadrons will give us the breathing space before the Project Azm bears fruit in the form of a light single engined product( I understand this can be refuted in light of the Ex ACMs speech)as the work horse along with J31.
A

Part of the answer perhaps boils down to what the Azm is. Is it:
A) A clean-sheet new design for air superiority, with Saudi help
B) A lightweight multirole 5th gen
C) A modified FC-31
D) A Chengdu design

Applying Occam's Razor, I think twin RD-93 type engines, giving commonality with JFTs is the least assumptive. A conventional wing form would make FCS development considerably simpler. The short time-frame given for development suggests the lowest risk, fastest development choices. So no earth-shattering R&D, just a 5th generation airframe with twin engines.

 

[Signalian]

There is nothing strategic about them.

Ra'ad ALCM.

 

[araz]

Part of the answer perhaps boils down to what the Azm is. Is it:
A) A clean-sheet new design for air superiority, with Saudi help
B) A lightweight multirole 5th gen
C) A modified FC-31
D) A Chengdu design

Applying Occam's Razor, I think twin RD-93 type engines, giving commonality with JFTs is the least assumptive. A conventional wing form would make FCS development considerably simpler. The short time-frame given for development suggests the lowest risk, fastest development choices. So no earth-shattering R&D, just a 5th generation airframe with twin engines.

You are possibly right here. The Ex ACM suggested 6k ferry range which to me points to a large twin engined fighter. The J31 remains an enigma for me. I think till such time that PLAN/PLAAF picks up a few fighters and contributes to development costs, PAF is not interested in going for it. All the news in the Chinese media seems to be of J20 the development of which is on fast track and may well start seeing increased production by 2018/19 from the current low rate production.Even with hand me down tech where will J31 be? What time lines are we talking about as with prototype to finished product could take anywhere between 7-10 years. If there are demands for local production those would be met first so we dont see anything happening for upto 10-12 years. On the contrary J20 will be in full swing by 2022-23 given low rate production has already started. As such do we bite the bullet and go for J20 instead of F31 leaving it to mature/ die a painful slow death? What shape does our own project take and what will happen to JFT? Do we see a lo observable design in its 4th/5th iteration or do we stop production at block 3? Those are points to ponder over. In my humble view collaboration with Turkey is a nonstarter simply due to time scales however collaboration with Engine Tech/ software/ subsystems could be an avenue to explore.
A

 

[Signalian]

B) A lightweight multirole 5th gen

No more light weight. Move into Medium or heavy now. Too much light weights already in inventory.

 

[CHACHA"G"]

As I said on this thread before , I will say it again and my post is not for fanboys.
PAF is in bad shape you like it or not , 100 JF-17s gave some breathing space , , , Our Mirages are old some of them are older then me. Our F-16s are old too , only less then 20 of them are relatively new.
Realistically no one will sell us 4.5++ gen heavy 2 engine or medium single engine bird for free !!! European even will not give us any thing even we pay them and even if they sell us fear of sanctions will always stay there.
So only way forward for us is :
Build JF-17 in to more advance blocks , even if we don't upgrade airframe and better & heavy engine . Replace all old F-7s F-6s and A-5s with it (original plan) . In shape of JF-17 we have very potent light weight advance aircraft.
J-10(Pakistani version) only available single engine , medium , delta wing ideal replacement for Mirages , , , Go for it , replace our old birds with them , just make sure the weapons of Mirages can be use on our J-10 to, J-10 will bring more advantages then if we buy some odd numbers of F-16s , , , ,
For heavy better we work on this project , it will be great to see our own Twin engine , Because option available are too expensive.
For 5th Gen only way forward is J-31 buy them with some sort of TOT and use that experience on our own AZM , Twin engine 5th gen (J-31) from China and single engine 5th Gen (AZM) home made (we can join Turkey too).The birds(J-31) we will buy , will help us to counter IAF's Rafals and Su-30s and also provide time to develop our on AZM and our Own heavy.

 

[Armchair]

You are possibly right here. The Ex ACM suggested 6k ferry range which to me points to a large twin engined fighter. The J31 remains an enigma for me. I think till such time that PLAN/PLAAF picks up a few fighters and contributes to development costs, PAF is not interested in going for it. All the news in the Chinese media seems to be of J20 the development of which is on fast track and may well start seeing increased production by 2018/19 from the current low rate production.Even with hand me down tech where will J31 be? What time lines are we talking about as with prototype to finished product could take anywhere between 7-10 years. If there are demands for local production those would be met first so we dont see anything happening for upto 10-12 years. On the contrary J20 will be in full swing by 2022-23 given low rate production has already started. As such do we bite the bullet and go for J20 instead of F31 leaving it to mature/ die a painful slow death? What shape does our own project take and what will happen to JFT? Do we see a lo observable design in its 4th/5th iteration or do we stop production at block 3? Those are points to ponder over. In my humble view collaboration with Turkey is a nonstarter simply due to time scales however collaboration with Engine Tech/ software/ subsystems could be an avenue to explore.
A

Interesting thoughts. J-20s, if offered, should be taken without question as the new Starfighter. 8-9 of them would be enough to create strategic effects, forcing India to invest in defensive measures for its soft underbelly.

Let's see. Its 2018. If we assume 20 approx aircraft per year, by 2025 you get 150 aircraft. Lets assume PAF goes on to produce a total of 300 JFTs. By 2027, you have about 300 JFTs and 60 F-16s.

The simplest Azm project, a twin engined conventional layout, "larger, stealthier JF-17" should be in production by then. Think of the Hornet - Super Hornet analogy, the easiest way to develop a new aircraft.

Ideally, PAF would want to be at 400 aircraft so there is a space for say, 36 units of a new type. If it was 18 units of J-20 and 18 units of JH-7B, it could solve the problem right there. Or PAF could just bite the bullet and accept that its squadron strength will go down for 2-3 years. IAF would also be facing a similar situation by then, so its not the greatest problem.

PAF's other option is to go for 18 Su-35s. Or pick up opportune F-16s.

 

[araz]

Interesting thoughts. J-20s, if offered, should be taken without question as the new Starfighter. 8-9 of them would be enough to create strategic effects, forcing India to invest in defensive measures for its soft underbelly.

Let's see. Its 2018. If we assume 20 approx aircraft per year, by 2025 you get 150 aircraft. Lets assume PAF goes on to produce a total of 300 JFTs. By 2027, you have about 300 JFTs and 60 F-16s.

The simplest Azm project, a twin engined conventional layout, "larger, stealthier JF-17" should be in production by then. Think of the Hornet - Super Hornet analogy, the easiest way to develop a new aircraft.

Ideally, PAF would want to be at 400 aircraft so there is a space for say, 36 units of a new type. If it was 18 units of J-20 and 18 units of JH-7B, it could solve the problem right there. Or PAF could just bite the bullet and accept that its squadron strength will go down for 2-3 years. IAF would also be facing a similar situation by then, so its not the greatest problem.

PAF's other option is to go for 18 Su-35s. Or pick up opportune F-16s.

Thank you. As mentionned before I do not see the SU35 coming to PAF. Economy of scale demands that you would need at least 2 squadrons to justify infrastruucture costs.which in this case would exceed 4 billion as new weapons also have to be bought. There are a host of other issues which make me think that rather than 2/ 3 types PAF will go for 1 type. Technological superiority needs a platform which has to be better than the adversary to justify the expense. I think we may opt for 2 squadrons of a single platform. In the same vein JH7 is a dead horse and all bets on a dead horse is lost money. Now take this further and you will come to the same conclusion- a platform procured in 2023 giving us respite till 2030 when Azm comes on line(include a grace period of 2-3 yrs accounting for project delays) ie a 5th generation fighter from China= J20.

A

 

[aliyusuf]

Can anyone shed some light on the claims being made from certain quarters that the IAF fighters, based in close proximity to the bases across the border in China that have J-20 stationed on them, are able to pick the J-20s on their radar during their routine flying?

 

[Armchair]

One solution could be to lower the wear and tear on the F-16s by purchasing some second hand J-7Gs. Assign a pair to each squadron of F-16s. Keep flight hours going mainly with simulator and J-7Gs, with only 5-10% of flight time using the F-16s. Mothball a few for good measure. Or use more JF-17Bs for the same game.

 

[GriffinsRule]

Can anyone shed some light on the claims being made from certain quarters that the IAF fighters, based in close proximity to the bases across the border in China that have J-20 stationed on them, are able to pick the J-20s on their radar during their routine flying?

Chinese fly J-20 with Luneburg Lens under the belly so to increase the RCS/radar signature by many folds. So anyone would be able to see the aircraft on their radar at longer ranges. Even F-22 and F-35 fly with such devices. Just google and you will find them

 

[Readerdefence]

Thank you. As mentionned before I do not see the SU35 coming to PAF. Economy of scale demands that you would need at least 2 squadrons to justify infrastruucture costs.which in this case would exceed 4 billion as new weapons also have to be bought. There are a host of other issues which make me think that rather than 2/ 3 types PAF will go for 1 type. Technological superiority needs a platform which has to be better than the adversary to justify the expense. I think we may opt for 2 squadrons of a single platform. In the same vein JH7 is a dead horse and all bets on a dead horse is lost money. Now take this further and you will come to the same conclusion- a platform procured in 2023 giving us respite till 2030 when Azm comes on line(include a grace period of 2-3 yrs accounting for project delays) ie a 5th generation fighter from China= J20.

A

Hi araz do you think Chinese will provide us with j20s even in 2024 or beyond my thoughts
Are whatever Chinese technology they are using in j20 is for China specific like f22 kinda thing
For export customers they have j31
And Shenyang is going slowly towards that path of getting their product inducted into Chinese navy on their next ACC as those carriers also need some time to be fully operational so Shenyang has time to get their product mature well in time
I’m sure you have more information them me on this subject as being a senior advisor/ consultant on this form
Your input will be appreciated
Thank you

 

[Army research]

Money remains an issue plus threat of sanctions.
I have been following this debate.
There are 2 questions which need answering in my view.
Which platform and when.
What is the need.
The need is evident. Mirages are long past their prime and need replacing. However the issues are perrenial for PAF. Firstly where is the money going to come from. Secondly currently PAF is all hands on deck integrating JFT into the system. Block 3 is going to be inducted and with newer capabilities will need a lot of work utilizing newer te h to the max. We have seen PAF has not been able to stand up more than 1 squadron a year inspite of potential for production being upto 25 units/yr. In this environment I dont see anything new coming till at least 2020/21. I more squadron will be stood up in the interim possibly before a hiatus for retooling in preparation for block 3. There are foreign orders to be filled as well.
So whatever happens will happen afterwards.
Now this period in my view is crucial. Our adversary will be inducting the Rafale which is a very capable platform. Any capability acquired would have to be technologically superior to it as paisa for paisa Indian buying power will always be more than ours. In this light in my humble opinion SU or EFT can ony provide appropriate/comparative capabilities which can be countered by increasing the numbers of Rafales. This is a problem that PAF has to grapple with.
Taking it further again there are also a myriad of issues with integrating both platforms. Potentially both are sanctionable as well.Then lack of commonality of spares and weaponry creates additioanl headaches as well as integrating diverse hardware into the netcentric environment. This makes it unlikely for PAF to acquire any of these platforms in my opinion.
The answer has to be Chinese platform. The queztion is which?
In my humble opinion J10 does not give us the bang for buck. It will therefore be either the J11/16 or J20/31or similar AC.
THE problems with J11/16 are known. Which makes me think it will have to be the latter. Any escort mission/work horse jobs will be assigned to progressively advanced JFTs as it seems the most logical solution given the paucity of funds involved.Of the 2 even though the 20 is much more capable it is an overkill for PAF so either J31will be acquired which has multiple advantages or a similar fighter will be inducted. 2 -3 squadrons will give us the breathing space before the Project Azm bears fruit in the form of a light single engined product( I understand this can be refuted in light of the Ex ACMs speech)as the work horse along with J31.
A

Azm will be dual engine plane , it's confirmed

 

[khanasifm]

Azm will be dual engine plane , it's confirmed

?? What’s the source of confirmation ??

 

[ziaulislam]

Can anyone shed some light on the claims being made from certain quarters that the IAF fighters, based in close proximity to the bases across the border in China that have J-20 stationed on them, are able to pick the J-20s on their radar during their routine flying?

they shot down many of them already

Let's see. Its 2018. If we assume 20 approx aircraft per year, by 2025 you get 150 aircraft. Lets assume PAF goes on to produce a total of 300 JFTs. By 2027, you have about 300 JFTs and 60 F-16s.

PAF's other option is to go for 18 Su-35s. Or pick up opportune F-16s.

getting 300 thunders by 2027 is wishful thinking, even 250 will be great acheivement
f-16s..PAF has been very unlucky, it messed up in 1990s, 2000s and even recently
su 30 is tricky situation, you dont want to end up not having spares for your strike aircraft

PAF simply needs more f-16s used, speed up jf17

 

[Armchair]

they shot down many of them already


getting 300 thunders by 2027 is wishful thinking, even 250 will be great acheivement
f-16s..PAF has been very unlucky, it messed up in 1990s, 2000s and even recently
su 30 is tricky situation, you dont want to end up not having spares for your strike aircraft

PAF simply needs more f-16s used, speed up jf17

I believe it is possible if 25-30 aircraft are produced every year, something that ramping up production would easily be able to do. Production does get ramped up over time, as experience and resources increase.

Su-35 spare parts is no problem at all as PLAAF flies the same. Issue is, can Russia be convinced to sell this jointly with China?

Meaning say, that the airframe and engines are bought by China, then Chinese avionics and electronics integrated (including Chinese AESA radar), and the final product sold by China to Pakistan. This would keep all stakeholders happy and keep the US mum.