Opinionated - Best time to get back IOK

[blueazure]

Just a small problem , the loc is fenced!! will be hard to replicate 65 model.

who says we will cross Loc on foot ?

ukr border was also fenced , russia simply flew air borne VDV over in mi 17s

 

[Joe Shearer]

Of course weapons and volunteer mujahideen should keep on flowing.

Does that mean they are flowing across currently?

We entered with Op Gibraltar, we entered in Kargil but unfortunately the Kashmiris didn't give us the welcome we were hoping for, now it's too risky.

We were told these were mujahideen who were not Pakistani service people in any way.

Not all of it. Even fenced parts can be cut, as shown by the TTP at the Afghan border. And the LoC fencing is quite primitive in many areas.

So it isn't impenetratable, in spite of extensive monitoring.....

 

[Joe Shearer]

This might have been true 100 years ago but nowadays regardless of genetic capability, it comes down to how good you are at aiming and shooting.

Please - leave him alone.

Some of them grow up, pass exams, and join the military. Some day, they might be engaged in planning. I earnestly request all members to refrain from discouraging this fresh young talent.

Or do you seriously think India can waltz into Islamabad within 24 hours?

Could we shoot for 48?

ukr border was also fenced , russia simply flew air borne VDV over in mi 17s

 

[Joe Shearer]

Nobody knows what is flowing or what isn't. Most likely there is no support to Kashmiri insurgents at the moment.

I don't know who infiltrated but no serious infiltration can occur without Pak Army's approval. That area is heavily monitored on both sides.

Got it.

That was fair, but very diplomatically phrased. We both know what you might have said, and where what you did say is, in relation to that.

When you make up your mind to speak up, we'll be listening.

 

[TheTallGuy]

My opinion

Any military operations depends on casus belli : An act or situation that provokes or justifies a war.

what can happen? call me crazy! there are lot scenarios?

Can the repeat of 14-Feb-19?

this will not instigate military clash per say since that since 26-Feb-19 has created as new normal and since then there is no major attacks on Indian Army in IOK or on Indian territory. (Strategic victory for India is this sense)

the 27-Feb-19 OSR was riposte but due to our proportionate response has created the new norm.

==
So to start a proper military invasion and liberation of Kashmir you require a bigger much bigger casus belli on both side.

so an act of like assassination of Modi or any political Heavy weight and leading for hardliner leader in office "Like Yogi" could initiate the conventional war.

rest assured Nuclear over hang has turned into myth. its not the deterrence anymore. if it was 26-Feb-19 air strikes would not have happened as Pakistan is very clear in first use policy.

that did not deter Indian Govt. or Indian Armed forces so Nuclear weapons deterrence is of Past now. again conventional military has gained importance.

thats is my crazy opinon.

 

[arjunk]

Could we shoot for 48?

If Modi is flying in to formally surrender to Pakistan, then we can shoot for 12

rest assured Nuclear over hang has turned into myth. its not the deterrence anymore. if it was 26-Feb-19 air strikes would not have happened as Pakistan is very clear in first use policy.

Pakistan's policy is that it will go nuclear if the conventional forces are destroyed. A single impotent airstrike or ceasefire violation by India does not justify a nuclear response.

India has a no first use policy and unless Pakistan succeeds in launching Ghazwa e Hind or something crazy which threatens India's existence, then they will not go nuclear either.

 

[Qutb-ud-din-Aibak]

My opinion

Any military operations depends on casus belli : An act or situation that provokes or justifies a war.

what can happen? call me crazy! there are lot scenarios?

Can the repeat of 14-Feb-19?

this will not instigate military clash per say since that since 26-Feb-19 has created as new normal and since then there is no major attacks on Indian Army in IOK or on Indian territory. (Strategic victory for India is this sense)

the 27-Feb-19 OSR was riposte but due to our proportionate response has created the new norm.

==

I agree with this there needs to be a reason and imho the best reason could be a civil war breaking out in India which technically could happen down the line and this will serve as the casus belli we need

 

[Joe Shearer]

If Modi is flying in to formally surrender to Pakistan, then we can shoot for 12

Be careful what you pray for; you might get it. If the elections go the way we hope, you may have to keep him with you for life. We could throw in Fatty, if you want an, aah, package deal. Large package.

Pakistan's policy is that it will go nuclear if the conventional forces are destroyed. A single impotent airstrike or ceasefire violation by India does not justify a nuclear response.

Good to hear that, as far as the Sanghis who keep posturing at the expense of our serving men and officers are concerned, and irrelevant for all decent people.

India has a no first use policy and unless Pakistan succeeds in launching Ghazwa e Hind or something crazy which threatens India's existence, then they will not go nuclear either.

The original mistake was going nuclear at all.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Most likely there will be a big attack by Kahsmiri, and India will blame us as usual and do something stupid, dragging us into a conflict. Kashmir is quiet today doesn't mean it will remain that way. Naturally our own attention will turn towards Kashmir when things settle on the Western border.

I hope you are wrong. In spite of having complete incompetents, and knaves as well as fools in power in Delhi, we are enjoying a very short lull in Kashmir.

 

[arjunk]

The original mistake was going nuclear at all.

No, imagine how many wars South Asia would see.

 

[Joe Shearer]

No, imagine how many wars South Asia would see.

Damn.

You have a point.

 

[FuturePAF]

There is a scenario where if China invaded Taiwan, India uses the opportunity to try to take back land controlled by China in the Himalayas, thinking the Chinese are preoccupied. That could be a casus belli for a major counter offensive in the region.

 

[K_Bin_W]

Clear the snakes within your sleeves before undertaking such an adventure.

That is the key otherwise taking care of bharat is not an issue it's a 1000 year precedent..

 

[Joe Shearer]

We get blamed even if a single bullet is fired in Kashmir. You guys give us too much credit, so it's not in our hand.

Fair enough.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Not stating it while sitting in a AC room been to Pulwama lost my leg in a battle and my cousin's were betrayed by the Main land Kashmiris and in a Single battle In the forest of Kupwara we lost 24 Fighters to Mukhbiri by our Kashmiri guide only 4 returned back to Azad Kashmir . Things are not as simple other wise In 2018 we gave them the M4s all were confiscated by the Indian army because some idiots were missing their moms back in Srinagar so pointed out our weapons storage.

And secondly Indians sent it's trained Team In Panjgur they had reached our FC HQ meanwhile we Sent a team to target a certain Indian military target all our Boys are martyred Via Mukhbiri not even close to the target. That's how F uped things are for Pakistani Fighters in Kashmir right now .

@Flash_Ninja