Operation Rah-e-Nijat

[ajpirzada]

The last thing i would want is that one of these done 'mistakenly' targeting PA hideouts/posts/camps settled in these areas as part of the operation.

this target has already been achieved. 12 of our soldiers died.
'friendly fire' u know!!!

 

[IceCold]

What you think US using drones without GOP premission?
What ever PA is doing in SWAT and FATA is part of joint US/PA strategy and plan.

Does not matter whether its with the premission or without. The only thing that matters is one wrong/miscalculated strike and BANG there goes the public support down the toilet drain. Also have you forgotten the 12 soliders that were killed in so called friendly fire.

I think it is in best intrest of Pakistan to root out these jehadi organisations fron Pakistan but in the mean time we should get maximum financial and miltery benefits from US , we have more dangrous enemies(Israel&india) still roomig in Afghanistan and Eeastern boarders.

No one is denying this fact however there is no point of US strikes when PA itself is present in the area to take action against BM and his ilks.
And for GOD sake get out of this mentality of getting maximum benefits out of the US. This kind of mentality will lead us no after all don't forget there are no free lunches.

 

[waraich66]

Does not matter whether its with the premission or without. The only thing that matters is one wrong/miscalculated strike and BANG there goes the public support down the toilet drain. Also have you forgotten the 12 soliders that were killed in so called friendly fire.



No one is denying this fact however there is no point of US strikes when PA itself is present in the area to take action against BM and his ilks.
And for GOD sake get out of this mentality of getting maximum benefits out of the US. This kind of mentality will lead us no after all don't forget there are no free lunches.

I could not understand why GOP is not opposing drone attacks ,may be Musharaf had made fews agreement with US for his personal intrests?????

US similar to USSR had intrest in this region , super power never attack any region with out their financial and political intrests ,only peace and change the regime is not their aim ,some time they attack on their friends also,we dont have friendship with US , US could not be sucessful against the insurgency in Afghanistan without the help of PA and local pushtoon tribes.

We should dictate our terms to US to make Pakistan more stronger economically and miltery point of view.

It should be long term peace deal between two nations .

 

[IceCold]

I could not understand why GOP is not opposing drone attacks ,may be Musharaf had made fews agreement with US for his personal intrests?????

US similar to USSR had intrest in this region , super power never attack any region with out their financial and political intrests ,only peace and change the regime is not their aim ,some time they attack on their friends also,we dont have friendship with US , US could not be sucessful against the insurgency in Afghanistan without the help of PA and local pushtoon tribes.

We should dictate our terms to US to make Pakistan more stronger economically and miltery point of view.

It should be long term peace deal between two nations .

GOP is not opposing because then the dollars won't fly in and fill pockets. That is why i mentioned in my previous post that GOP should take a firm stand and for once start thinking of Pakistan for a change. Like i mentioned one wrong drone strike either intentionally or miscalculated and the result could be devastating for the PA who now is enjoying the support of the masses that was not seen before since the start of WOT.

 

[muse]

It's interesting that even as Pakistan's enemies are targetted, some here point not the real world successes but "possible" failures.

While Drone attacks have killed enemies of Pakistan, some lament not that it was the wrong policy to allow abdication of state responsiblity to protect it's citizens against terrorists, but rather the instruments which might enable the state to regain it's much vaunted "sovereignty" over the areas and peoples it has abdicated to the enemies of Jinnah's Pakistan.

Should we not be focusing on real world successes in the use of these instruments to help free us opf terrorists? or should we demoralize our forces and peoples and rob them of this instrument by pointing not to it's successes but it's percieved failures?

 

[waraich66]

It's interesting that even as Pakistan's enemies are targetted, some here point not the real world successes but "possible" failures.

While Drone attacks have killed enemies of Pakistan, some lament not that it was the wrong policy to allow abdication of state responsiblity to protect it's citizens against terrorists, but rather the instruments which might enable the state to regain it's much vaunted "sovereignty" over the areas and peoples it has abdicated to the enemies of Jinnah's Pakistan.

Should we not be focusing on real world successes in the use of these instruments to help free us opf terrorists? or should we demoralize our forces and peoples and rob them of this instrument by pointing not to it's successes but it's percieved failures?

Who ever planned these attacks actually a big stupid not aware of pushtoon tradition , these pushtoon although always supported Pakistan but they have their own jirga laws and rule .

When ever a innocent trible person killed by drone attack as per pushtoon tradition it is allowed to take revenge .

That is reason they send bombers to attack army and government institutions.

 

[muse]

Fundamentalist

Enough of this distortion of Pashtun tradition -- Is it Pashtun tradition to be indimidated by terrorists?? Is it Pashtun tradition to be Namak haram ? Is it Pashtun tradition to give your young daughters to terrorists?? is it Pashtun tradition to host terrorists??

You seem not to understand Pashtunwali - you imagine it stuck in some time warp, it isn't - in Pakistan, Pakistani law is supreme, supreme!

You do one one justice when you distort Pashtun society and you bring no honor to Pashtun who are pakistani FIRST, LAST and ALWAYS!!

Pakistan will have to do butcher work, because it failed to be forceful earlier and demanding that Pakistani law is supreme. I think you know little of facts on the ground about pashtun society, they are not from some comic book or noble savage idealized, it is a society of real people dealing with real problems.

The more you think of Pashtun as if some savage, the greater you imperil them and surrender them to terrorists from whom they seek escape.
Pashtun society is about abiding by laws, not the lawless savages you suggest, motivated by revenge only -- they know full well that going against the law has consequences and these are sure.

 

[waraich66]

Fundamentalist

Enough of this distortion of Pashtun tradition -- Is it Pashtun tradition to be indimidated by terrorists?? Is it Pashtun tradition to be Namak haram ? Is it Pashtun tradition to give your young daughters to terrorists?? is it Pashtun tradition to host terrorists??

You seem not to understand Pashtunwali - you imagine it stuck in some time warp, it isn't - in Pakistan, Pakistani law is supreme, supreme!

You do one one justice when you distort Pashtun society and you bring no honor to Pashtun who are pakistani FIRST, LAST and ALWAYS!!

Pakistan will have to do butcher work, because it failed to be forceful earlier and demanding that Pakistani law is supreme. I think you know little of facts on the ground about pashtun society, they are not from some comic book or noble savage idealized, it is a society of real people dealing with real problems.

The more you think of Pashtun as if some savage, the greater you imperil them and surrender them to terrorists from whom they seek escape.
Pashtun society is about abiding by laws, not the lawless savages you suggest, motivated by revenge only -- they know full well that going against the law has consequences and these are sure.

Trible Pushtoons have many traditions and jirga laws which are barberian and contradictory to Islamic principles and to Pakistani and International human right laws.

Culture and tradition developed in thausand of years , you can't change it abruptly.

 

[Xeric]

Trible Pushtoons have many traditions and jirga laws which are barberian and contradictory to Islamic principles and to Pakistani and International human right laws.

Culture and tradition developed in thausand of years , you can't change it abruptly.

Pushtoons have 'strict' laws which may contradict the international human right laws but i never knew that they were also barbarians!

Being aggressive and motivated by anger and revenge doesn't necessarily qualify someone as a 'barbarian'

How many times have you seen PUSHTOONS flogging their girls in open? or for that matter exploding themselves to kill innocents?

 

[waraich66]

Pushtoons have 'strict' laws which may contradict the international human right laws but i never knew that they were also barbarians!

Being aggressive and motivated by anger and revenge doesn't necessarily qualify someone as a 'barbarian'

How many times have you seen PUSHTOONS flogging their girls in open? or for that matter exploding themselves to kill innocents?

Pashtunwali
Main article: Pashtunwali
The term "Pakhto" or "Pashto" from which the Pashtuns derive their name is not merely the name of their language, but is synonymous with a pre-Islamic honor code/religion formally known as Pashtunwali (or Pakhtunwali). Pashtunwali is believed to have originated millennia ago during pagan times and has, in many ways, fused with Islamic tradition.[citation needed] Pashtunwali governs and regulates nearly all aspects of Pashtun life ranging from tribal affairs to individual "honor" (nang) and behavior.

Numerous intricate tenets of Pashtunwali influence Pashtun social behavior. One of the better known tenets is Melmastia, hospitality and asylum to all guests seeking help. Perceived injustice calls for Badal, swift revenge. A popular Pashtun saying, "Revenge is a dish best served cold", was borrowed by the British and popularized in the West.[70] Men are expected to protect Zan, Zar, Zameen, which translates to women, treasure, and land. Some aspects promote peaceful co-existence, such as Nanawati, the humble admission of guilt for a wrong committed, which should result in automatic forgiveness from the wronged party. Other aspects of Pashtunwali have attracted widespread criticism, particularly with respect to its influence on women's rights and so-called "honour killings".[71] These and other basic precepts of Pashtunwali continue to be followed by many Pashtuns, especially in rural areas.

 

[fatman17]

ANALYSIS: Swat to South Waziristan —Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi

It seems that the army is currently blocking exit points from South Waziristan into other tribal areas and the NWFP so that the Taliban do not easily slip out of the region. This is being coupled with air raids and limited ground offensives using heavy guns on selected targets

The current phase of the security operation in Swat involving direct encounters between the army and the Taliban is nearing completion. The army and paramilitary forces have cleared the cities and main roads of the Taliban, who have been killed, arrested or have fled the area. They have also been dislodged from Buner and Dir.

The army will have to stay in these areas for a year or so to help the civilian administration restore basic civic facilities and to facilitate the return of the population that left the area at the beginning of the operation. They will have to maintain tight security to ensure that the remnants of the Taliban do not regroup and launch attacks. It is understandable that the government has decided to set up an army cantonment in Swat so that some troops are permanently present there.

The dislodging of the Taliban from the Swat-Malakand area reassures the people that the army has the capacity to cope with the Taliban challenge and enhances their confidence in the army. However, the Taliban menace cannot be effectively controlled without dismantling its authority structure in the tribal areas, especially South Waziristan, where they have established their main base. The army has already launched an operation in Bannu and has made initial punitive moves in South Waziristan to build pressure on Baitullah Mehsud and his Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan.

The security operation in South Waziristan is going to be a more challenging affair than the Swat action, because the TTP main base is said to be fortified with a strong presence of foreign fighters, including some Al Qaeda elements. The TTP is expected to use tough guerrilla tactics, including suicide attacks in mainland Pakistan through its linkages with local militant/sectarian groups in Punjab. Al Qaeda’s disposition will also influence the situation in South Waziristan. It is difficult to suggest if Al Qaeda will stay neutral or support the TTP.

Security forces have to cover a large area and the Taliban have the option of moving to another agency or cross over to Afghanistan. Another possibility is that the Afghan Taliban may join Pakistani Taliban in their war against Pakistan.

Pakistan and US/NATO troops need to improve coordination to interdict cross-border movement of people and weapons. Such coordination also serves American security interests in Afghanistan. The US is currently sending fresh troops to Afghanistan that are expected to launch a major security operation in July-August in order to ensure a peaceful presidential election in Afghanistan on August 20. The American operation in Afghanistan can cause cross-border movement of Afghan Taliban to the Pakistani tribal areas, adding to Pakistan’s security problems there. This will compromise the effectiveness of American military operations in Afghanistan. Therefore, both Pakistan and the US need to restrict cross-border movement in the next three months for their individual considerations.

It seems that the army is currently blocking exit points from South Waziristan into other tribal areas and the NWFP so that the Taliban do not easily slip out of the region. This is being coupled with air raids and limited ground offensives using heavy guns on selected targets. The air and ground offensive is expected to pick up pace soon, followed by induction of troops into the area, involving direct encounters with the fighters of Baitullah Mehsud.

Four major factors are in favour of the civilian government and the army. First, the dislodging of the Taliban from Swat and adjoining areas is a morale booster for the security forces and the provincial and federal governments. For the first time the civilian government and the army have pursued counter-insurgency single-mindedly and persistently. The army was not deterred by the human losses it suffered in Swat. The top commanders appear fully determined to move decisively against the Taliban and their allied groups.

Second, anti-Taliban sentiments have increased in Pakistan during the last three months. This shift has been caused mainly by stepped up violence in different cities by the TTP and its allied groups based in the Punjab, starting with the March 3 attack on Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore. Other immediate factors are the efforts of the Taliban to expand their control after the agreement between the NWFP government and Sufi Muhammad, and stories of the brutalities the Taliban inflicted on the people.

The Taliban continue to enjoy some support from Islamist political parties, especially the Jama’at-e Islami, which is engaged in a persistent campaign against the on-going security operation in Swat and opposes any operation in the tribal areas. Most Deobandi/Wahhabi religious leaders express support or sympathy for the Taliban. Barelvi religious leaders invariably support the military operation against the Taliban.

This religious-sectarian divide has become sharper after the assassination of Maulana Naeemi in Lahore, a cleric belonging to the Barelvi Islamic tradition, on June 12. The alienated Barelvi religious leaders are now more vocal in criticising the Taliban, especially suicide attacks. Shia religious leaders are also opposed to the Taliban and their violence against Pakistani state and society. These developments have weakened Taliban support even within Islamic circles.

Third, the military authorities need to exploit the contradictions between Baitullah Mehsud, chief of the TTP, and other militant and tribal leaders that have surfaced this week. Baitullah Mehsud established his control first in the Waziristan area by 2007 after ruthlessly subduing other commanders and tribal leaders who questioned his leadership or methods. Some of these commanders have now declared their opposition to Baitullah.

Two important commanders — Qari Zainuddin and Haji Turkistan — have publicly denounced Baitullah and his violent tactics. More such leaders will surface in the near future, who can be cultivated by Pakistani authorities. Their support will be useful but the Pakistan Army will have to take on Baitullah and his fighters militarily to dislodge them.

Fourth, the recent arrest of some militants in Punjab, accused of involvement in the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team, is a helpful development. If the police and other security personnel contain local militants (‘Punjabi Taliban&#8217, it would vastly reduce Baitullah’s capacity to launch suicide attacks in the cities because he functions in mainland Pakistan though local Islamic extremists and militant-sectarian groups.

These factors have created a favourable environment for a new security operation. Civilian and military authorities are better placed now to move against the TTP. However, this operation could be a long one. The government should make it clear that the security operation does not target the Mehsud tribe but Baitullah and his Pakistani and foreign associates that have established their reign of terror in the tribal areas and sponsor terrorist attacks in mainland Pakistan.

Authorities should not be oblivious to humanitarian issues caused by insurgency and counter-insurgency. The influx of refugees from Swat and adjoining areas is a case in point. A similar problem can arise when a major operation is launched in the tribal areas.

Decisive action in South Waziristan and other tribal areas is a pre-requisite rehabilitating the writ of the Pakistani state and restoring the confidence of the people of Pakistan and the international community in the capacity and determination of the civilian government and especially the military to cope with the Taliban groups. This would also demoralise militant groups in mainland Pakistan.

Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi is a political and defence analyst

 

[fatman17]

ASIA PACIFIC
Date Posted: 19-Jun-2009

Jane's Defence Weekly

Pakistan opens up new front in war against terrorism

View attachment 3518

Trefor Moss JDW Asia-Pacific Editor - London

Key Points
The Pakistan Army has been ordered into South Waziristan to target the terrorist network of Baitullah Mehsud

Artillery and air strikes are weakening known Taliban positions ahead of ground operations, but Pakistan's overstretched army faces a daunting challenge in the remote tribal region


The Pakistan Army is preparing to open up a new front in the war against domestic extremists after receiving orders from President Asif Ali Zardari to expand its operations beyond the Swat valley and target Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Baitullah Mehsud.

The Army confirmed on 16 June that it would be launching an operation into South Waziristan, Baitullah's power base, with its information service announcing the government's decision "to launch a military operation against Baitullah Mehsud and his network".

However, the wisdom of targeting Baitullah and opening up a second front against the Pakistani Taliban was widely questioned, with military operations still ongoing in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and three million internally displaced persons (IDPs), who have fled the fighting in Swat, still waiting to be rehoused.

Baitullah has been blamed for a string of recent terrorist attacks, which have killed over 100 Pakistanis in the past few weeks alone, and he is estimated to have as many as 30,000 followers in the tribal areas. In March, the US put up a USD5 million reward for information leading to his capture.

A military spokesman told Jane's that the army was unable to reveal any details about the timing or scope of the Waziristan mission. However, the army has already begun to conduct 'softening-up' operations, deploying artillery and air power to strike militant targets in the tribal agency ahead of the arrival of ground forces. Local media reported that these operations were continuing on 18 and 19 June, with helicopters and artillery attacking TTP hideouts.

The spokesman also declined to say whether the US was supporting the mission by using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to hit TTP targets in Waziristan, in spite of local reports claiming that a UAV had struck the house of a local Taliban commander on 18 June.

Zardari first revealed that he was planning to send the army into Waziristan in May, as it became clear that the army was making progress in Swat.

However, while the army may for now have checked the spread of extremism in NWFP, the situation in Pakistan remains precarious. "We are still going to face a serious crisis over the summer," said Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia centre at the Atlantic Council. "I'm not sure [eliminating Baitullah] will solve things. The TTP is a brand name, it is a franchise; it's not a homogenous group."

A Pakistani government official told Jane's that while targeting Baitullah would not solve all the country's problems, his acts of terrorism had left the government with no choice but to confront him.

"All you can do against those who cause trouble is take action," he said.

The operation in Waziristan - notwithstanding the historical failure of most military campaigns attempted there - is fraught with risk, according to Nawaz. "The threat is that this could create more IDPs and drive the locals to take up arms, including the Mehsuds who don't currently support Baitullah," he said.

The government source said the Waziristan operation would create "no more than half a million more IDPs", since the tribal areas are sparsely populated relative to Swat. And while military operations in Waziristan would be tough, he said they would not be any more challenging than those conducted in the Swat valley, which is itself mountainous and heavily forested.

The main reason to be confident about a successful outcome in Waziristan was "that public opinion has turned against Talibanisation and their ruthless tactics, which are not even Islamic", he continued. "[Even in South Waziristan itself], there are now splinters within the Taliban. The government has succeeded in dividing the movement."

Nawaz added that the influential South Waziri Ahmadzai tribe and its leader Mullah Nazir, who is currently allied with Baitullah, have dealt with the army in the past and could be persuaded to turn against the TTP. Baitullah also faces a serious challenge to his leadership from within his own tribe from an emerging local commander called Qari Zainuddin Mehsud, according to local reports.

"The tribes take their own time," observed the government official, "but now they're reacting against Baitullah. This had to come."

The newfound resolve of the army to confront home-grown extremists has already been demonstrated by the decision to commit several additional army brigades to the fight in Swat, Nawaz added. "But now they are running out of infantry," he said, querying whether the army could commit enough forces to Waziristan to achieve its goals.

Even if the initial campaign goes smoothly, the army arguably lacks a well-planned counter-insurgency strategy to ensure lasting success. "The army needs to get control of as large an area as possible and then the challenge is what are they going to put into it," said Nawaz. "[The fear is that] the army is addressing the symptoms but not the underlying causes [of the tribal areas' problems]."

 

[waraich66]

ANALYSIS: Swat to South Waziristan —Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi

It seems that the army is currently blocking exit points from South Waziristan into other tribal areas and the NWFP so that the Taliban do not easily slip out of the region. This is being coupled with air raids and limited ground offensives using heavy guns on selected targets

The current phase of the security operation in Swat involving direct encounters between the army and the Taliban is nearing completion. The army and paramilitary forces have cleared the cities and main roads of the Taliban, who have been killed, arrested or have fled the area. They have also been dislodged from Buner and Dir.

The army will have to stay in these areas for a year or so to help the civilian administration restore basic civic facilities and to facilitate the return of the population that left the area at the beginning of the operation. They will have to maintain tight security to ensure that the remnants of the Taliban do not regroup and launch attacks. It is understandable that the government has decided to set up an army cantonment in Swat so that some troops are permanently present there.

The dislodging of the Taliban from the Swat-Malakand area reassures the people that the army has the capacity to cope with the Taliban challenge and enhances their confidence in the army. However, the Taliban menace cannot be effectively controlled without dismantling its authority structure in the tribal areas, especially South Waziristan, where they have established their main base. The army has already launched an operation in Bannu and has made initial punitive moves in South Waziristan to build pressure on Baitullah Mehsud and his Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan.

The security operation in South Waziristan is going to be a more challenging affair than the Swat action, because the TTP main base is said to be fortified with a strong presence of foreign fighters, including some Al Qaeda elements. The TTP is expected to use tough guerrilla tactics, including suicide attacks in mainland Pakistan through its linkages with local militant/sectarian groups in Punjab. Al Qaeda’s disposition will also influence the situation in South Waziristan. It is difficult to suggest if Al Qaeda will stay neutral or support the TTP.

Security forces have to cover a large area and the Taliban have the option of moving to another agency or cross over to Afghanistan. Another possibility is that the Afghan Taliban may join Pakistani Taliban in their war against Pakistan.

Pakistan and US/NATO troops need to improve coordination to interdict cross-border movement of people and weapons. Such coordination also serves American security interests in Afghanistan. The US is currently sending fresh troops to Afghanistan that are expected to launch a major security operation in July-August in order to ensure a peaceful presidential election in Afghanistan on August 20. The American operation in Afghanistan can cause cross-border movement of Afghan Taliban to the Pakistani tribal areas, adding to Pakistan’s security problems there. This will compromise the effectiveness of American military operations in Afghanistan. Therefore, both Pakistan and the US need to restrict cross-border movement in the next three months for their individual considerations.

It seems that the army is currently blocking exit points from South Waziristan into other tribal areas and the NWFP so that the Taliban do not easily slip out of the region. This is being coupled with air raids and limited ground offensives using heavy guns on selected targets. The air and ground offensive is expected to pick up pace soon, followed by induction of troops into the area, involving direct encounters with the fighters of Baitullah Mehsud.

Four major factors are in favour of the civilian government and the army. First, the dislodging of the Taliban from Swat and adjoining areas is a morale booster for the security forces and the provincial and federal governments. For the first time the civilian government and the army have pursued counter-insurgency single-mindedly and persistently. The army was not deterred by the human losses it suffered in Swat. The top commanders appear fully determined to move decisively against the Taliban and their allied groups.

Second, anti-Taliban sentiments have increased in Pakistan during the last three months. This shift has been caused mainly by stepped up violence in different cities by the TTP and its allied groups based in the Punjab, starting with the March 3 attack on Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore. Other immediate factors are the efforts of the Taliban to expand their control after the agreement between the NWFP government and Sufi Muhammad, and stories of the brutalities the Taliban inflicted on the people.

The Taliban continue to enjoy some support from Islamist political parties, especially the Jama’at-e Islami, which is engaged in a persistent campaign against the on-going security operation in Swat and opposes any operation in the tribal areas. Most Deobandi/Wahhabi religious leaders express support or sympathy for the Taliban. Barelvi religious leaders invariably support the military operation against the Taliban.

This religious-sectarian divide has become sharper after the assassination of Maulana Naeemi in Lahore, a cleric belonging to the Barelvi Islamic tradition, on June 12. The alienated Barelvi religious leaders are now more vocal in criticising the Taliban, especially suicide attacks. Shia religious leaders are also opposed to the Taliban and their violence against Pakistani state and society. These developments have weakened Taliban support even within Islamic circles.

Third, the military authorities need to exploit the contradictions between Baitullah Mehsud, chief of the TTP, and other militant and tribal leaders that have surfaced this week. Baitullah Mehsud established his control first in the Waziristan area by 2007 after ruthlessly subduing other commanders and tribal leaders who questioned his leadership or methods. Some of these commanders have now declared their opposition to Baitullah.

Two important commanders — Qari Zainuddin and Haji Turkistan — have publicly denounced Baitullah and his violent tactics. More such leaders will surface in the near future, who can be cultivated by Pakistani authorities. Their support will be useful but the Pakistan Army will have to take on Baitullah and his fighters militarily to dislodge them.

Fourth, the recent arrest of some militants in Punjab, accused of involvement in the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team, is a helpful development. If the police and other security personnel contain local militants (‘Punjabi Taliban’), it would vastly reduce Baitullah’s capacity to launch suicide attacks in the cities because he functions in mainland Pakistan though local Islamic extremists and militant-sectarian groups.

These factors have created a favourable environment for a new security operation. Civilian and military authorities are better placed now to move against the TTP. However, this operation could be a long one. The government should make it clear that the security operation does not target the Mehsud tribe but Baitullah and his Pakistani and foreign associates that have established their reign of terror in the tribal areas and sponsor terrorist attacks in mainland Pakistan.

Authorities should not be oblivious to humanitarian issues caused by insurgency and counter-insurgency. The influx of refugees from Swat and adjoining areas is a case in point. A similar problem can arise when a major operation is launched in the tribal areas.

Decisive action in South Waziristan and other tribal areas is a pre-requisite rehabilitating the writ of the Pakistani state and restoring the confidence of the people of Pakistan and the international community in the capacity and determination of the civilian government and especially the military to cope with the Taliban groups. This would also demoralise militant groups in mainland Pakistan.

Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi is a political and defence analyst

I think Baitullah Mehsud should not be underestimated , he will not fight to defend his home town , he will only defend few startegic location to keep his link with Afghan talaban and try to block supply line of NATO and PA.Mehsud know very well US wanted to continue the supply line for NATO at any cost.

War is FATA will be totally different from SWAT.It will be very slow and nerve breaking gurrilla war.

 

[muse]

In which case we will break your Baitullah's nerves for sure. Baitullah defends nothing but his masters, who are but enemies of Pakistan.

 

[waraich66]

Analysis: Waziristan operation to focus on Baitullah Mehsud
By Bill RoggioJune 17, 2009 2:18 AM
As the Pakistani military gears up for what appears to be a major operation into the Taliban stronghold of South Waziristan, the government and military are signaling that the operation is limited to taking out Baitullah Mehsud. The three other powerful Taliban groups based in North and South Waziristan do not appear to be on the Pakistan Army’s target list.

The South Waziristan operation, called Rah-e-Nijat, or the Way of Salvation, is already underway, according to the Pakistani military’s top spokesman. The military has been positioning troops and armor in the neighboring district of Tank while conducting artillery and airstrikes into regions run by Baitullah Mehsud, the overall commander of the Pakistani Taliban. The main roads in the region are also being blocked to cut off supplies to Baitullah's forces. Further north the military is battling the Taliban in the Jani Khel and Baka Khel regions in Bannu, which borders North Waziristan.

Yesterday the Pakistani military announced that it has received orders to take on Baitullah's powerful Taliban faction in South Waziristan.

"The Army has received requisite orders from the government," Major General Athar Abbas said yesterday during a briefing in Rawalpindi. "Necessary steps and measures are being taken by the military to launch the operation."

Abbas was clear that the focus of the operation will be Baitullah Mehsud. Not mentioned were Taliban commanders Mullah Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadar and the powerful Haqqani network.

"The government has taken a principled decision to launch a military operation against Baitullah and his network," Abbas stated. "It would be premature to discuss tactics or when we will target the person in question," Abbas said, continuing to focus on Baitullah specifically.

Baitullah Mehsud is only part of the problem

While Baitullah and his network of fighters and suicide bombers have wreaked havoc on Pakistan, and his tribal areas have served as a major safe haven for al Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and a host of Punjabi and Kashmiri terror groups, he is but part of the problem in the war-torn country.

Nazir, Bahadar, and the Haqqanis each host their share of training camps and safe houses for al Qaeda and allied terror movements. The groups also conduct cross-border attacks against Coalition and Afghan forces in Afghanistan. Nazir and Bahadar's forces largely fight in the southern and southeastern provinces of Helmand, Kandahar, Zabul, Ghazni, and Uruzgan, Afghanistan, while the Haqqanis are active in Khost, Paktika. and Paktia. Siraj Haqqani, the son of famed mujahedeen commander Jalaluddin, is one of the most wanted men in Afghanistan, as his network has been behind some of the most deadly attacks in the country.

Nazir and Bahadar have formed an alliance with Baitullah at the behest of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar, Osama bin Laden, and Jalaluddin Haqqani. In February, Nazir, Bahadar, and Baitullah formed the United Mujahideen Council and vowed to pool forces to fight the Pakistani state if the military moved into the tribal areas. The council also agreed to continue the jihad in Afghanistan and strike at the US and India.

Nazir and Bahadar are considered "pro-government Taliban" by the Pakistani military and government because they have opposed fighting the Pakistani military and prefer to focus their attention of Afghanistan. The military has cut peace deals with Nazir and Bahadar in the past. These deals are still in effect despite the formation of the United Mujahideen Council and the declaration against the Pakistani state. The Pakistani military also openly supported Nazir as he sought to eject elements of the Islamic Jihad Union, an Uzbek terror group, from his tribal areas.

The Haqqanis have been virtually untouchable. The group operates openly in North Waziristan and runs a network of madrassas in the region.

And the Haqqanis are widely supported by the Pakistani military. In May 2008, General Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan's senior military officer, was overheard by the CIA referring to Jalaluddin Haqqani as "a strategic asset." The CIA also found evidence linking the Pakistani military and intelligence service to last summer's suicide attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul.

The Haqqanis are well respected by all of the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban groups. The Haqqanis have mediated tribal disputes between Baitullah and Nazir and Bahadar, as well as settled the contentious issue between Nazir and the Uzbeks.

The Pakistani military is reportedly seeking to cut deals with Nazir, Bahadar, and the Haqqanis to keep them on the sideline as the Army takes on Baitullah's forces in the upcoming operation. Frantic negotiations are underway with Nazir and Bahadar, both members of the Wazir tribe.

"We have been shuttling between the Taliban and the government for three days to reach some sort of an understanding to keep the Taliban from joining Baitullah,” Waziri tribal elders told Daily Times.

A Baitullah-only operation is a half measure

While taking on Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan is a welcome sign that the government seeks to sustain the offensive against the Taliban which began in late April in Dir, Buner, and Swat, a failure to act against Bahadar, Nazir, and the Haqqanis will leave the Taliban with much of their forces intact. And al Qaeda will remain secure in their havens in North and South Waziristan.

The Taliban warlords may also provide Baitullah and his forces a safe haven if he refuses to commit all of his forces to oppose the Pakistani military in South Waziristan, just as Mullah Fazlullah's forces conduct a tactical retreat in the Swat Valley.

Baitullah, his leaders, and a select group of fighters could take shelter in the Haqqani areas in North Waziristan. Baitullah could also transit the neighboring tribal areas and head across the border into southern or southeastern Afghanistan and wait out the Pakistani Army, which by all reports does not have the desire to remain in the tribal areas.

A failure to tackle these commanders also leaves the military exposed to a potential counterattack. Bahadar, the Haqqanis, and Nazir are estimated to have more than 50,000 forces combined. If they decide to honor their agreement with Baitullah under the United Mujahideen Council, these forces could join the estimated 30,000 under Baitullah's command, and slug it out with the Pakistani Army in rugged, mountainous terrain that is well suited to favor the defenders.

The military may be left with no choice but to fight Bahadar and Nazir if they decide to honor their agreement with Baitullah. One of the two leaders has indicated they may be willing to take on the Army. Last week, Bahadar sent hundreds of his fighters to battle the Army in the Jani Khel region of Bannu.

In addition to the forces potentially available from the three senior Taliban leaders, Baitullah’s deputies in the tribal areas are said to have tens of thousands of fighters under their command. Hakeemullah Mehsud, Baitullah's cousin and deputy, is estimated to have more than 8,000 at his disposal in Kurram and Arakzai. Omar Khalid, the able commander in Mohmand, is said to have more than 5,000 fighters. Bajaur's Faqir Mohammed and Swat's Mullah Fazlullah also are estimated to have 5,000 fighters each. The Uzbek fighters under Tahir Yuldashev are said to have more than 4,000 fighters at their disposal. Rehmanullah and Hazrat Ali, Hakeemullah's deputies in Khyber, are said to lead more than 1,200 fighters. And al Qaeda's paramilitary Shadow Army, which operates in both Afghanistan and in Pakistan's tribal areas, has between 8,000 to 12,000 fighters in its ranks.

The military is currently conducting offensives against the Taliban in Swat, Arakzai, Bannu, Bajaur, and Mohmand, but it remains to be seen if these offensives will be sustained. If the Pakistani military eases the pressure on these areas, some of these fighters will be freed up to reinforce Baitullah, making a tough task of dislodging the Taliban commander all the more difficult.

Background on recent fighting in North and South Waziristan

The Pakistani military has avoided targeting the Taliban in North and South Waziristan after suffering a string of humiliating defeats there between 2004 and 2008. The most recent operations in Waziristan resulted in peace agreements that have ceded control of the region to the Taliban.

The last time the Pakistani military took on the Taliban in North Waziristan was in October 2007. The Pakistani military and the Taliban fought pitched battles after the military launched artillery barrages and helicopter and attack aircraft assaults against Taliban-controlled villages in North Waziristan.

The Taliban responded by setting up complex ambushes, including surface-to-air missile traps, a senior US military intelligence official told The Long War Journal. Several Pakistani Army helicopters were said to have been shot down during the fighting. The Pakistani military claimed that 120 Taliban and 45 soldiers were killed in the fighting, but independent reports put the number of soldiers killed much higher.

At the end of October 2007, the government pushed for a peace deal and the fighting waned. The Taliban, led by the Haqqani Network and Hafiz Gul Bahadar, remained entrenched in the region. In February 2008, an official peace agreement was signed.

The last major operation against the Taliban in South Waziristan took place in late January 2008. The military launched an offensive with the declared aim of dislodging Baitullah Mehsud's forces from entrenched positions. Prior to the military’s offensive, the Taliban overran two military forts and conducted numerous attacks against Pakistani forces. More than a dozen of Pakistan’s elite counterterrorism commandos were killed in a single engagement.

The military claimed to have ejected the Taliban from strongholds in Kotkai and Jandola, and said it killed Qari Hussain. Hussain later mocked the government during a press conference in May 2008.

Just 11 days after the fighting in South Waziristan had begun, the military sued for peace. The Taliban retook control of Jandola four months later, after murdering dozens from a rival tribe while the military looked on. The military has since abandoned several forts in South Waziristan and has kept activity there to a minimum.

Taliban forces belonging to Baitullah, Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadar, and the Haqqanis, led by Siraj, have only grown stronger since defeating the Pakistani military during engagements in 2007 and 2008. Tens of thousands of fighters are under the collective command of the leaders. The recent alliance between Baitullah, Nazir, and Bahadar has unified the Waziristan Taliban.



Read more: Analysis: Waziristan operation to focus on Baitullah Mehsud - The Long War Journal