Operation in Swat - Pakistan's Stalingrad

[PAFAce]

It is pretty obvious that a major military offensive will commence in the Swat Valley very soon. The Army seems to be in an unforgiving mood, and the Taleban have isolated themselves amongst the majority of Pakistan for trying to take advantage of the peace deal to expand. The people of the region have what they want, Shariah Law, and the true intentions of the Taleban have been revealed on them (for the most part).

So, why start a thread to say something we all know? because it seems to me that the importance of this offensive is lost on the Pakistani people. Everyone is talking about it, but noone is really sure how crucial this is. To add to that, the international media is covering the situation better than national media, despite the so-called "media vacuum" in the Swat region.

The simple fact is this, this is the best opportunity the Army has had since 2007 to bring an end to the situation. Our political clowns have finished their act and have settled in a background role (for now), the international "powers" are finally talking some sense, and there is finally wide demand and support for the operation in Pakistan. It seems that the law of probability has done the trick, the chips have fallen in place for the Army just at the right time. And the Army knows it. From what I have been following in the past few days, the Army is finally looking serious, and even the US has taken a notice of that.

People, this is our Stalingrad. We must win this battle for the sake of our existence. How will we do this? I leave to the experts to discuss. I, personally, liked the "classic three-part counter insurgency strategy" suggested by Mullen. "Clearing areas of Taliban control, holding those areas with enough troops so that the local population feels secure, and then building through economic development."

This brings me to my next point. Anti-US sentiments are widespread in Pakistan, from the rich to the poor, and nobody can argue that they are unjustified. There are very good reasons to dislike US policies in Pakistan, and we all know it. However, our feelings toward the US must take a back seat to our fight against the Taleban. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, Pakistan and the US have certain common objectives. Since we need US aid to fight the Taleban; financial, political and military, let's not isolate ourselves by becoming overly aggressive and critical of present US policies. Of course, when "Allied Forces" bomb the crap out of civillians, as recently as yesterday, it does not help their reputation. When Evangelical Christian Paratroopers in the US forces in Afghanistan go out on faith-recruiting and bible-distributing missions instead of peace-keeping ones, it does not help our common cause. These incidents must be protested, but collaboration at the higher levels must be continued. The ugly truth is, Pakistan needs US aid right now, just like they need our actions, and "beggars can't be choosers".

That is all I have to say. My objective was simply to let everyone know how important this battle seems, at least to one young Pakistani. I would like to see as many pictures and videos of Army operations as possible, and I wish the Army all the luck.

Pray for Pakistan.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

"Clearing areas of Taliban control, holding those areas with enough troops so that the local population feels secure, and then building through economic development."

The first can certainly be done, but I am not certain we have the troop numbers to accomplish the second.

IMO, the second will have to be accomplished through a combination of military, paramilitary and local law enforcement and civilian militias. The latter two will require considerable engagement and cooperation between locals and the GoP, GoNWFP and PA, and likely have to go hand in hand with reconstruction and development.

This means the development and implementation of a comprehensive strategy by the GoP, and adequate funding. While I see little sign of competency so far from the GoP in developing a strategy, lack of funding in case one is developed is also a huge concern.

Read this opinion on the resource crunch by Ahmed Rashid:

But the army and the civilian government still lack a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy as well as a plan to deal with the 1 million refugees who have fled the fighting. Every government official I have met says that the country is bankrupt and that there is no money to fight the insurgency, let alone deal with the refugees.
washingtonpost.com

Bear in mind that Pakistan has yet to be reimbursed for expenses amounting to over a billion USD from a year and a half ago. When you consider that Pakistan's entire defence budget is 4.4 Billion USD, that is a huge amount.

Also consider the fact that the US and Pakistan had an agreement on these expense reimbursements - this money was worked into the Pakistani budget, and the US decision to stop the reimbursements (despite detailed accounting and auditing) has had a significant impact.

This does not even include all expenses incurred since the pending reimbursement requests were submitted.

 

[ajpirzada]

we all know how important this operation is. it has become a do or die thing. we have only two options; either win this war or learn to live the taliban way.

but i have got a question. why is army using artillary and y not more man power???

 

[linkinpark]

we all know how important this operation is. it has become a do or die thing. we have only two options; either win this war or learn to live the taliban way.

but i have got a question. why is army using artillary and y not more man power???

May be lack of will or fear of massive exodus of pakhtoon brethren from the PA, who consider Taliban as one of their own.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

May be lack of will or fear of massive exodus of pakhtoon brethren from the PA, who consider Taliban as one of their own.

Why hasn't the FC seen an exodus then, since it is entirely composed of 'Pakhtun brethren' from the tribes?

Using that logic the FC should have ceased to exist by now!

Lets not second-guess tactical decisions, or try to to explain them through half-baked theories when we do not have complete details of the operations or tactics employed, let alone the rationale or constraints faced by the PA while conducting operations.

 

[ajpirzada]

May be lack of will or fear of massive exodus of pakhtoon brethren from the PA, who consider Taliban as one of their own.

i didnt ask that question so that someone lik u could update me with his theory... i was hopin for an answer from someone who is aware of the technical details and u dont seem lik one

 

[Solomon2]

Congress should authorize these funds quickly, giving the Obama administration tools to convince the Pakistani people that it is standing behind them. Immediate aid, and providing U.S. helicopters for the army's use, would shore up Pakistanis' resolve and could help persuade the army to accept the counterinsurgency training the United States has offered for the past year

Even Rashid doubts that U.S. money will be enough to overcome the PA's institutional biases.

the extensive conditions -- as varied as improving relations with India, fighting the Afghan Taliban and allowing the U.S. interrogation of Pakistani nuclear scientists -- are too much for any Pakistani government to accept and survive politically.

Which will make U.S. lawmakers consider that maybe no regime in Pakistan is better than one that can't spend money "properly", just as it has been useless to bail out U.S. auto companies. Yes, that may be flawed thinking - but that is the atmosphere in Congress today.

Pakistan is deteriorating, yes, but it is unclear that providing funds to the central government is the best - or even any - way to stabilize the country. It feels more and more like another Nationalist China or Vietnam, a bottomless pit to pour money in to little or no lasting effect, because the primary concern of the governments involved was to see to themselves, rather than their countrymen.

Rather, I suggest the U.S. seek out the bottom-up approach of working through regional governments and the better NGOs. (We're having to do that already anyway, because it isn't like the GoP is taking care of Pakistani refugees, but the UNHCR.)

If the GoP won't resist its greedy urges and is too scared to put its neck on the line for its own people, perhaps it would be best to let it fail and have the international community assist the remnants in stabilization. Then again, the spectre of Bangladesh's birth pangs (at least 300,000 dead) should give us pause...

 

[Skeptic]

we all know how important this operation is. it has become a do or die thing. we have only two options; either win this war or learn to live the taliban way.

but i have got a question. why is army using artillary and y not more man power???

Terming it as a do or die is stretching it a bit too far. I don't think PA or GoP exactly echos the same sentiments or else the troop size would have been much higher. A lot can be attributed to the media hype and the war of words being played out by international community in general.

US is being paranoid and generally has hyped up the fear and abilities of these rogue elements and PA seems to have a measure of them. The idea that a handful of loonies will take over a country of the size of Pakistan is quite ridiculous.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Which will make U.S. lawmakers consider that maybe no regime in Pakistan is better than one that can't spend money "properly",

The Senate bill seems to have not included most of the contentious 'conditions' related to India.

The reports from Zardari's meeting with the Congressional committee, including Berman, pushing the house bill seemed to go off pretty positively, and officially at least the US administration is opposed to the India specific conditions.

What the final reconciled bill looks like we shall have to wait and see, but the odds, at this point, seem to be in favor of something closer to the Senate Bill.

 

[wtf]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/07/world/asia/07refugee.html?hp

Pakistanis Flee Clash of Army and Taliban

Government officials here say that about 40,000 people have already left and that a half million might ultimately be forced to run. That day seemed to come closer on Wednesday. The Pakistan Army reported fighting the Taliban in two places; in Swat, where they claimed to have killed 35 militants, and in Buner, where they said they killed 27. Those reports could not be independently verified, in part because the government has banned reporters from the area.

...
If you do something wrong, if you miss your prayers or something like that, the Taliban will flog you in the street,” he said. “We are Muslims, we don’t have much problem with people trying to enforce the religion — it’s when they cut the throats of the policemen that people become angry. Yes, they are doing that.”
...
Still, some of the refugees milling about the tuberculosis hospital raised doubts about the agenda of Pakistan Army. Some even echoed the widespread view, commonplace in Washington, that the Pakistan Army, or least elements of it, had not merely failed to combat the militants, but had colluded to make them stronger.

“In some places the Taliban and the army are a stone’s throw away,” said Mohammed Javed, who fled his job as an armed guard for Doctors Without Borders in Mingora. “They are just looking at each other, not doing anything. We are ordinary people, and we do not understand.”

--------------------
In Stalingrad, Russians were pretty much using people like cannon fodder due to shortage of guns, the Germans on the other hand were starving/freezing to death. I am not sure we want that scale of fighting in Swat.
While on the other hand, that sort of a will to fight might be a good thing.

 

[PAFAce]

In Stalingrad, Russians were pretty much using people like cannon fodder due to shortage of guns, the Germans on the other hand were starving/freezing to death. I am not sure we want that scale of fighting in Swat.

Well, ofcourse. The reason I mentioned Stalingrad was the reason you gave.

that sort of a will to fight might be a good thing.

We will have to fight as if we are fighting for our existence because, in a way, we are.

And to anyone who believes there is a "lack of will by the Army", you need to follow the news a bit more. There may be a lack of will in the politicians, but the Army, finally, looks all business and no bull. I hope it remains that way. The Taleban have pretty much shot themselves in the foot, now its time to shoot them in the heart.

 

[wtf]

And to anyone who believes there is a "lack of will by the Army", you need to follow the news a bit more. There may be a lack of will in the politicians, but the Army, finally, looks all business and no bull. I hope it remains that way. The Taleban have pretty much shot themselves in the foot, now its time to shoot them in the heart.

I have no special knowledge about Swat or Buner and I am not judging. I was just paraphrasing the news article from NYtimes which said that Taliban and Army were face to face in some places and not fighting. I won't ascribe that to a lack of will, could be just a concern for civilian casualities.

 

[Hellfire]

we all know how important this operation is. it has become a do or die thing. we have only two options; either win this war or learn to live the taliban way.

but i have got a question. why is army using artillary and y not more man power???

I think that the Indian factor is too deeply institutionalised for the army to be able to remove a sufficient quantity of troops from the eastern sector. As a result, the PA is unable to establish sufficient superiority in terms of personnel. A CI op anyways entails higher ratio to be maintained, add to it the difficult nature of terrain and you are looking at IMO, about 200-250 x 1000 troops (both regular army/FC/PMFs) initially for eastern sector. It shall entail huge costs for additional modifications needed in the regular units to outfit them for CI grid.

I have repeatedly highlighted the possibility of troops being withdrawn from demarcated IB on the east ie in Sindh-Punjab sectors where you have little fear of any Indian adventurism. You may get a few additional troops if you were to reduce a few troops from their offensive role in J&K sector.

The repeated point of cohesive policy in terms of political-military-social approach is fine, but that is for the politicians to formulate. At no point does it decide the nature of troops to be inducted/quantity of personnel/type of weaponry to be introduced. As such the argument of lack of political directive is untenable.

Political objective has been given PA. To ensure peace and security of the region and the citizens. No government can dictate the force levels needed to be inducted to attain the objective. That is purely a military domain and one place where even the political authority is subservient to army's decisions even in a democratic setup.

 

[PAFAce]

I have repeatedly highlighted the possibility of troops being withdrawn from demarcated IB on the east ie in Sindh-Punjab sectors where you have little fear of any Indian adventurism. You may get a few additional troops if you were to reduce a few troops from their offensive role in J&K sector.

I agree with you, but also believe this has to be mutual. India has so far claimed that they are against terrorists and support the forces fighting terrorism, this has to be matched with actions. Increasing troop strength and conducting "exercises" near the border region after the Bombay attack was not a very smart move. However, a political party trying to cash in on the people's emotions just before the elections is nothing new and is not unique to India. It happens all over the world, and it is exactly what happened in India. Widespread warmongering by certain Indians made Pakistanis nervous, and the Armed Forces had to react. Hence, the hesitation in moving troops away from the Indian border.

Common sense must prevail now. Pakistanis and Indians alike must demand a pullback of troops from border regions. Both countries must recognise that they, at least currently, pose little conventional threat to one another. Unfortunately, and call me a pessimist if you like, but I believe that there are certain elements in Indian politics and military that see great benefit in a Pakistan Army divided between the border and FATA. They would rather have a Pakistan fighting in Swat than a Pakistan demanding freedom for Kashmir. Not all Indians share this view, but many do. The outcome of the elections will tell us exactly how many.

Lastly, to those who advocate civil militias, I say that fire does not fight fire. Weapons in the hands of civillians will only lead to more problems. We must disarm the civillian population and take responsibility for their security. Local militias will be ripe recruiting grounds for newer madmen. An alternative to civil militias is police recruitment. Police presence in the region must be increased and armed with the latest weapons and training. Local youth must be recruited to protect the innocent. A sense of pride, a sense of patriotism and a sense of community must be nourished within the people. A capable police, backed by the Fronter Corp, backed by the Army will present a solid platform for human economic development of the region. Ofcourse, before all of that, we must win this battle.

 

[Hellfire]

Increasing troop strength and conducting "exercises" near the border region after the Bombay attack was not a very smart move.

Common sense must prevail now. Pakistanis and Indians alike must demand a pullback of troops from border regions. Both countries must recognise that they, at least currently, pose little conventional threat to one another.

Only one thing PAFAce, there has been no increase in troops level on Indian side. It was all a direct result of media campaign I guess. That is all.