Official Budget 2015 Thread

[Kabira]

Economics and overall budget manage is an entire vast subject.In total GDP that would be just less than 2.5% .

For you ,perhaps it would be quite easy to check others ethinicity whether they are dardick or not .
But that knowledge wont be enough for analysing budgetry details

Your cheap shots are not funny anymore i was talking about % of defence budget not GDP. Before writing dick my mallu friend you should check this bbc article

BBC News - Condoms 'too big' for Indian men

 

[SrNair]

Your cheap shots are not funny anymore i was talking about % of defence budget not GDP. Before writing dick my mallu friend you should check this bbc article

BBC News - Condoms 'too big' for Indian men

Sorry that was dardic .Not 'dardick'.Just a typo

 

[Abingdonboy]

GST by April 2016 is something to cheer about all by itself. That's a 0.7-1.2% addition to GDP growth when fully implemented!

$40 billion defence budget out of $288 billion. So India spend 14% of total budget on defence.

But only 1.7% of GDP which is very low by international standards, for comparison your country spends 5-6% of its GDP and over 25% of the national budget on defence.

 

[Kabira]

GST by April 2016 is something to cheer about all by itself. That's a 0.7-1.2% addition to GDP growth when fully implemented!


But only 1.7% of GDP which is very low by international standards, for comparison your country spends 5-6% of its GDP and over 25% of the national budget on defence.

1.7% of GDP? How? Provide source. Pak % was 17.44% not 25%. In terms of GDP 2.6% for 2014-15 budget. Stop making bs numbers.

What is India projected GDP for 2015-16?

 

[Abingdonboy]

Which means out of 40 Billion $, India will buy defence goods of around 16 Billion $ this year.

This is only partially correct, by $16 billion is available to spend on new equipment, India can sign deals worth a hell of a lot more given the fact that for the large deals one only pays 10-15% of the total cost upfront. So India can sign and pay the first instalment of deals worth more than $50 billion this year ( a conservative figure assuming that not all deals will be large with a long pay back period).

 

[Kabira]

Sorry that was dardic .Not 'dardick'.Just a typo

No offence taken because at the end of the day i can understand how rest of Indians treat you. Keep insulting us to feel better

 

[Abingdonboy]

1.7% of GDP? How? Provide source. Pak % was 17.44% not 25%. In terms of GDP 2.6%. Stop making bs numbers.

From the 2014-15 budget so should be in the similar ball park for the 2015-16 budget given the only modest hike in spending but also the growth in the Indian economy at the same time:

The defence budget accounts for 1.78% of the GDP and 12.76% of the total central government expenditure.
Takeaways for Defence in the Union Budget 2014-15: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)

What is India projected GDP for 2015-16?

GDP growth rate should be 8.2-8.5% for 2015-16.

 

[MokshaVimukthi]

This is only partially correct, by $16 billion is available to spend on new equipment, India can sign deals worth a hell of a lot more given the fact that for the large deals one only pays 10-15% of the total cost upfront. So India can sign and pay the first instalment of deals worth more than $50 billion this year ( a conservative figure assuming that not all deals will be large with a long pay back period).

Air Force share in the total budge is around 24-25 %. ........ i.e its capital budget Every Year will be around 4 billion to 6 Billion $.

In that they have to buy aircraft parts, Helicopters, Akash Missiles, A2A Missiles, A2G missiles. transport equipments and aircrafts, ground radars, Ground based equipments for airports and hangars, AWACS, Aircraft upgrade, A2A Refuellers etc.

How much money do they have left for Modern Aircraft purchases ? 2-3 Billion $ a year ?

 

[Kabira]

From the 2014-15 budget so should be in the similar ball park for the 2015-16 budget given the only modest hike in spending but also the growth in the Indian economy at the same time:

The defence budget accounts for 1.78% of the GDP and 12.76% of the total central government expenditure.
Takeaways for Defence in the Union Budget 2014-15: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)


GDP growth rate should be 8.2-8.5% for 2015-16.

Not GDP growth but GDP, what is projected GDP for 2015-16? Then we can calculate % of defence GDP. This year India will spend 13.8% instead of 12.76% last year, so more of budget will be spent on defence. But i agree it should be around 1.8% vs 2.6% for Pakistan.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Air Force share in the total budge is around 24-25 %. ........ i.e its capital budget Every Year will be around 4 billion to 6 Billion $.

In that they have to buy aircraft parts, Helicopters, Akash Missiles, A2A Missiles, A2G missiles. transport equipments and aircrafts, ground radars, Ground based equipments for airports and hangars, AWACS, Aircraft upgrade, A2A Refuellers etc.

Yes but they aren't paying for all these upfront but over a period of many years (up to a decade in some cases) so one can't just look at their long list of equipment to buy, add up the total value of the deals and deduct it from their capex budget for the reasons I have explained.

Not GDP growth but GDP, what is projected GDP for 2015-16? Then we can calculate % of defence GDP. This year India will spend 13.8% instead of 12.76% last year, so more of budget will be spent on defence. But i agree it should be around 1.8% vs 2.6% for Pakistan.

I don't know, it's pretty tricky to figure out because the GoI recalculated the past few years GDP growth recently so this will inherently (positively) effect the GDP of India. A few more months and we should have some concrete numbers. But given only a very modest increase in defence and that India's GDP growth rate was pretty high last year, I don't see the defence budget as a % of GDP being all too dissimilar to last year's 1.78% ceteris paribus.

 

[MokshaVimukthi]

Yes but they aren't paying for all these upfront but over a period of many years (up to a decade in some cases) so one can't just look at their long list of equipment to buy, add up the total value of the deals and deduct it from their capex budget for the reasons I have explained.

2 billion every year for 10 years gives you 20 Billion $. That is what the Rafale will cost over a 10 year period. Which means No budget for PAK FA for the next 15 years. No budget for AMCA or eve for LCA. i.e till 2025.

We can pray that the Budget raises every year, but no planning can be done considering the BEST case scenario. it is done considering the WORST case scenario.

 

[Abingdonboy]

2 billion every year for 10 years gives you 20 Billion $. That is what the Rafale will cost over a 10 year period. Which means No budget for PAK FA for the next 15 years. No budget for AMCA or eve for LCA. i.e till 2025.

We can pray that the Budget raises every year, but no planning can be done considering the BEST case scenario. it is done considering the WORST case scenario.

Umm, what? Firstly the $20 billion figure is far too inflated, ti is closer to $15-16 billion. You are then assuming no growth in the Indian economy which we know is being unduly pessimistic given last year say 7% growth, this year will see 8%+ and this is before the full force of the reforms can begin to take hold and positively benefit the GDP growth rate. So it is more than fair to assume the defence budget is going to be increasing year on year and by a healthy amount.

And where do you get the idea that the payments for the Rafale consume 100% of the available IAF capital expenditure budget??

 

[MokshaVimukthi]

Umm, what? Firstly the $20 billion figure is far too inflated, ti is closer to $15-16 billion. You are then assuming no growth in the Indian economy which we know is being unduly pessimistic given last year say 7% growth, this year will see 8%+ and this is before the full force of the reforms can begin to take hold and positively benefit the GDP growth rate. So it is more than fair to assume the defence budget is going to be increasing year on year and by a healthy amount.

And where do you get the idea that the payments for the Rafale consume 100% of the available IAF capital expenditure budget??

Of the total estimated 4 billion $, I kept aside 2 billion $ for Everything ranging from aircraft parts, Helicopters, Akash Missiles, A2A Missiles, A2G missiles. transport equipments and aircrafts, ground radars, Ground based equipments for airports and hangars, AWACS, Aircraft upgrade, A2A Refuellers etc.

The rest of the 2 Billion $ per year was taken for New fighter purchase. Worst case scenario our Air Force capital will be blocked for the next 7-8 years if we allocate 2 billion per year, making it 14-16 billion $ for Rafale. That is still 2023.

Anyway this is off the cuff calculations, so no need to be so worried. ....... hopefully our defence budget will double every 4 years.

 

[SrNair]

No offence taken because at the end of the day i can understand how rest of Indians treat you. Keep insulting us to feel better

No dude .I am serious .That was a typo mistake.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Of the total estimated 4 billion $, I kept aside 2 billion $ for Everything ranging from aircraft parts, Helicopters, Akash Missiles, A2A Missiles, A2G missiles. transport equipments and aircrafts, ground radars, Ground based equipments for airports and hangars, AWACS, Aircraft upgrade, A2A Refuellers etc.

The rest of the 2 Billion $ per year was taken for New fighter purchase. Worst case scenario our Air Force capital will be blocked for the next 7-8 years if we allocate 2 billion per year, making it 14-16 billion $ for Rafale. That is still 2023.

Anyway this is off the cuff calculations, so no need to be so worried. ....... hopefully our defence budget will double every 4 years.

To be honest I think the calculations are overly alarmist and on the pessimistic side.

Anyway, assuming very healthy growth GDP rates the situation is fine either way (using your calculations or mine), if GDP growth slumps below 6% again though things could get bad.