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Offence is best defence against Indian bellicosity
Fri, 2008-12-05 02:11
By Asif Haroon Raja
Of all the regional countries, Pakistan has always been regarded by India as the stumbling block in her ambitions to attain regional ascendancy. Acquisition of nuclear weapons by Pakistan poured cold water on militaristic designs of India but never watered down her urge to undo Pakistan. Since application of force through direct means has become highly risky and costly because of Pakistans conventional and nuclear capability, Indian planners are now burning midnight oil how to weaken and destabilise Pakistan and deprive it of its nuclear weapons by applying indirect strategy.
One of the strategies put into practice is building of dams on all rivers flowing into Pakistan in disregard of Indus Basin Treaty signed in 1960 so as to choke Pakistan. It has already fired the testing round by closing water of River Chenab during the crucial months of August-September 2008 on the pretext of filling the newly constructed Baglihar Dam.
After the demise of her erstwhile mentor USSR in 1991, India hastened to shift into the lap of USA so as to achieve her ambition to become the regional power and attain world power status. Not only has she become a strategic partner of sole super power but has also inked ten-year defence deal and Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. These two deals allow India to procure latest state-of-arts-weapons as well as access to unlimited nuclear materials from all the supplier nations/groups. It has also developed military and nuclear ties with Israel which has become the leading arms supplier to New Delhi. Tel Aviv considers nuclear Muslim Pakistan to be biggest threat to her security and hence considers it natural to have mutually beneficial alliance with India duly complemented by USA and UK.
9/11 provided a godsend opportunity to India to fulfil her unfulfilled dreams. Occupation of Afghanistan by USA opened vast vistas of opportunities for our detractors to indulge in covert operations and soften Pakistan from within. Afghan soil provided an ideal launching pad to launch sabotage and subversive activities in its areas of interest. In a matter of six years, the notorious Indo-Israeli-US-UK alliance has made substantial progress in the targeted regions of Pakistan. Besides inflaming the two extreme flanks of Pakistan, it has succeeded in bogging down major portion of our army in the quagmires of Baluchistan and FATA including some parts of settled areas of Frontier Province with little hope of extrication in the near future. Ethnic tensions have exacerbated and resentment and hatred among the Baloch and the Pashtuns have risen. There is warlike situation in Bajaur and Swat where the army is pitted against the militants since last August and each side has drawn blood, destroyed property and caused large-scale displacement. With the formation of armed lashkars, the tribals are fighting each other which have further compounded matters. Considering the collateral damage incurred, the pro-government lashkars of today will be anti-army militants in the future. Gen Kayani has rightly said that use of force is a short-term remedy and not a long-term solution.
Drone attacks by CIA have purposefully been intensified to ensure that peace doesnt return to the disturbed regions. Suicide attacks by militants are jolting the fabric of security. As if these woes were not enough, Pakistan has been hit by global economic recession. These factors together with poor governance and lackadaisical approach of rulers have pushed Pakistan into the stranglehold of IMF. The rulers have lost their credibility within months on account of the widely held perception that they are hand-in-glove with the Americans. All these challenges make the task of the army that much complicated and taxing. Irrespective of the odds, the army is performing its tasks with admirable efficiency. Firm action taken by the army and Frontier Corps in Baluchistan and in Swat, Darra and parts of FATA has frustrated designs of our adversaries forcing them to resort to other means to achieve their ends. Manipulation of water in rivers by India is one such devious tactic to browbeat Pakistan. While it is easy for USA to arm-twist Zardari and his team, it irritates them to see the unwavering stance of the armed forces and the ISI. Hence they are resorting to defamation of the two institutions through psychological war.
Having succeeded in softening certain parts of body of Pakistan, our adversaries feel that they are in a good position to once again repeat the experiment of blackmailing Pakistan through military coercion. More than two Corps size force is locked up in north-western Pakistan and a Corps is stuck in southern Pakistan for the last so many years because of ongoing insurgencies in FATA, Swat and Baluchistan. Consumption of such a large force deprives Pakistan army of its potent responses in Central Punjab. Economy is on the downturn and civilian leadership is pliant. American leadership is in transitional phase and outgoing Bush Administration is too keen to further milk Pakistan before it departs. Pro-Indian and pro-American elements within FATA and Swat are in duress and sooner than later the tide may swing in favour of Pakistan. India is getting itchy to induct its forces into Afghanistan and be able to play a lead role in war on terror by conducting operations both sides of Durand Line. It is also keen to gain access to land route via Wagah border to be in a position to ship its goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Kashmir has become volatile and pressure on Indian government is mounting. Indian state elections in two states are due in December and general elections in May 2009. Arrest of certain serving officers and their linkage with BJP and indulgence in terrorism has caused reverberations within Indian army and hard-line Hindus.. Differences between Congress and BJP have heightened. The Indo-US-Israeli axis is eager to deprive Pakistan of its nuclear and missile assets and to force Pakistan to accept hegemony of India.
With these considerations in view, it is quite likely that the planners chalked out a drama of terrorist attacks on Mumbai to hold Pakistan squarely responsible thereby giving an excuse to India to deploy its forces along its western border on the pattern of 2002. This scenario looks plausible when seen in the light of behaviour of Indian leadership, its media and that of Anglo-American media and officials. India has resorted to gimmickry in the past as well to distract public attention from certain domestic issues and to put pressure on Pakistan. Although the government has affirmed that in case of threat developing on eastern border it would be constrained to pull out its forces from FATA, it is to be seen whether it would be possible as had happened in 2002. Too much of blood has been split in the last six years. Although the signs are very positive, it cannot be presumed with assurance that the whole lot of militants in the northwest would ceasefire and turn their guns towards western border.
Notwithstanding the positive and patriotic response of the armed forces and the people of FATA, it is disgusting to see the pathetic response of our rulers. The country is on fire and the people are finding it difficult to keep their body and soul together, our rulers continue to have fun time. Zardari remains mostly out of country on the plea that India poses no threat to Pakistan. He has still not picked up courage to initiate a letter of complaint to Manmohan Singh for having dishonoured his commitment to compensate for the water loss incurred on account of closure of water in River Chenab which has incurred a loss of 200,000 cusecs water. He and his huge band of ministers have no time to ensure implementation of parliament?s consensus resolution on war on terror but have all the time for foreign trips and merrymaking.
They have closed their eyes to the bleak socio-economic-political and security indicators and are feeling ecstatic that handsome amount of loan has been doled out by the IMF. They are behaving in a meek and cowardly manner in the face of Indian growing belligerence. They think that their timidity and spinelessness would extinguish the anger of Indians and they would forgive them for the uncommitted sin without extracting a price. They must realise that India in connivance with its partners have manufactured a case in which Pakistan has been indicted on charges of abetting terrorism and would also manufacture proofs which will be seconded by her friends. Weakness shown by us would further embolden them and strengthen their case. In the given circumstances, offence is the best form of defence against Indian bellicosity.
Musharraf had buckled under American pressure and he took a u turn on Afghanistan and Pakistan had to pay a heavy price and is still suffering the consequences. He again capitulated in 2002 and ceded far too many concessions to India. Zardari and Gilani are now under test. It will be seen how they behave under duress and whether they too would barter away the sovereignty of Pakistan to stay in power or stand their ground and make the nation proud.
Asif Haroon Raja: is a defence and political analyst and writes regularly for national and foreign newspapers.
- Asian Tribune -
Offence is best defence against Indian bellicosity | Asian Tribune
Fri, 2008-12-05 02:11
By Asif Haroon Raja
Of all the regional countries, Pakistan has always been regarded by India as the stumbling block in her ambitions to attain regional ascendancy. Acquisition of nuclear weapons by Pakistan poured cold water on militaristic designs of India but never watered down her urge to undo Pakistan. Since application of force through direct means has become highly risky and costly because of Pakistans conventional and nuclear capability, Indian planners are now burning midnight oil how to weaken and destabilise Pakistan and deprive it of its nuclear weapons by applying indirect strategy.
One of the strategies put into practice is building of dams on all rivers flowing into Pakistan in disregard of Indus Basin Treaty signed in 1960 so as to choke Pakistan. It has already fired the testing round by closing water of River Chenab during the crucial months of August-September 2008 on the pretext of filling the newly constructed Baglihar Dam.
After the demise of her erstwhile mentor USSR in 1991, India hastened to shift into the lap of USA so as to achieve her ambition to become the regional power and attain world power status. Not only has she become a strategic partner of sole super power but has also inked ten-year defence deal and Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. These two deals allow India to procure latest state-of-arts-weapons as well as access to unlimited nuclear materials from all the supplier nations/groups. It has also developed military and nuclear ties with Israel which has become the leading arms supplier to New Delhi. Tel Aviv considers nuclear Muslim Pakistan to be biggest threat to her security and hence considers it natural to have mutually beneficial alliance with India duly complemented by USA and UK.
9/11 provided a godsend opportunity to India to fulfil her unfulfilled dreams. Occupation of Afghanistan by USA opened vast vistas of opportunities for our detractors to indulge in covert operations and soften Pakistan from within. Afghan soil provided an ideal launching pad to launch sabotage and subversive activities in its areas of interest. In a matter of six years, the notorious Indo-Israeli-US-UK alliance has made substantial progress in the targeted regions of Pakistan. Besides inflaming the two extreme flanks of Pakistan, it has succeeded in bogging down major portion of our army in the quagmires of Baluchistan and FATA including some parts of settled areas of Frontier Province with little hope of extrication in the near future. Ethnic tensions have exacerbated and resentment and hatred among the Baloch and the Pashtuns have risen. There is warlike situation in Bajaur and Swat where the army is pitted against the militants since last August and each side has drawn blood, destroyed property and caused large-scale displacement. With the formation of armed lashkars, the tribals are fighting each other which have further compounded matters. Considering the collateral damage incurred, the pro-government lashkars of today will be anti-army militants in the future. Gen Kayani has rightly said that use of force is a short-term remedy and not a long-term solution.
Drone attacks by CIA have purposefully been intensified to ensure that peace doesnt return to the disturbed regions. Suicide attacks by militants are jolting the fabric of security. As if these woes were not enough, Pakistan has been hit by global economic recession. These factors together with poor governance and lackadaisical approach of rulers have pushed Pakistan into the stranglehold of IMF. The rulers have lost their credibility within months on account of the widely held perception that they are hand-in-glove with the Americans. All these challenges make the task of the army that much complicated and taxing. Irrespective of the odds, the army is performing its tasks with admirable efficiency. Firm action taken by the army and Frontier Corps in Baluchistan and in Swat, Darra and parts of FATA has frustrated designs of our adversaries forcing them to resort to other means to achieve their ends. Manipulation of water in rivers by India is one such devious tactic to browbeat Pakistan. While it is easy for USA to arm-twist Zardari and his team, it irritates them to see the unwavering stance of the armed forces and the ISI. Hence they are resorting to defamation of the two institutions through psychological war.
Having succeeded in softening certain parts of body of Pakistan, our adversaries feel that they are in a good position to once again repeat the experiment of blackmailing Pakistan through military coercion. More than two Corps size force is locked up in north-western Pakistan and a Corps is stuck in southern Pakistan for the last so many years because of ongoing insurgencies in FATA, Swat and Baluchistan. Consumption of such a large force deprives Pakistan army of its potent responses in Central Punjab. Economy is on the downturn and civilian leadership is pliant. American leadership is in transitional phase and outgoing Bush Administration is too keen to further milk Pakistan before it departs. Pro-Indian and pro-American elements within FATA and Swat are in duress and sooner than later the tide may swing in favour of Pakistan. India is getting itchy to induct its forces into Afghanistan and be able to play a lead role in war on terror by conducting operations both sides of Durand Line. It is also keen to gain access to land route via Wagah border to be in a position to ship its goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Kashmir has become volatile and pressure on Indian government is mounting. Indian state elections in two states are due in December and general elections in May 2009. Arrest of certain serving officers and their linkage with BJP and indulgence in terrorism has caused reverberations within Indian army and hard-line Hindus.. Differences between Congress and BJP have heightened. The Indo-US-Israeli axis is eager to deprive Pakistan of its nuclear and missile assets and to force Pakistan to accept hegemony of India.
With these considerations in view, it is quite likely that the planners chalked out a drama of terrorist attacks on Mumbai to hold Pakistan squarely responsible thereby giving an excuse to India to deploy its forces along its western border on the pattern of 2002. This scenario looks plausible when seen in the light of behaviour of Indian leadership, its media and that of Anglo-American media and officials. India has resorted to gimmickry in the past as well to distract public attention from certain domestic issues and to put pressure on Pakistan. Although the government has affirmed that in case of threat developing on eastern border it would be constrained to pull out its forces from FATA, it is to be seen whether it would be possible as had happened in 2002. Too much of blood has been split in the last six years. Although the signs are very positive, it cannot be presumed with assurance that the whole lot of militants in the northwest would ceasefire and turn their guns towards western border.
Notwithstanding the positive and patriotic response of the armed forces and the people of FATA, it is disgusting to see the pathetic response of our rulers. The country is on fire and the people are finding it difficult to keep their body and soul together, our rulers continue to have fun time. Zardari remains mostly out of country on the plea that India poses no threat to Pakistan. He has still not picked up courage to initiate a letter of complaint to Manmohan Singh for having dishonoured his commitment to compensate for the water loss incurred on account of closure of water in River Chenab which has incurred a loss of 200,000 cusecs water. He and his huge band of ministers have no time to ensure implementation of parliament?s consensus resolution on war on terror but have all the time for foreign trips and merrymaking.
They have closed their eyes to the bleak socio-economic-political and security indicators and are feeling ecstatic that handsome amount of loan has been doled out by the IMF. They are behaving in a meek and cowardly manner in the face of Indian growing belligerence. They think that their timidity and spinelessness would extinguish the anger of Indians and they would forgive them for the uncommitted sin without extracting a price. They must realise that India in connivance with its partners have manufactured a case in which Pakistan has been indicted on charges of abetting terrorism and would also manufacture proofs which will be seconded by her friends. Weakness shown by us would further embolden them and strengthen their case. In the given circumstances, offence is the best form of defence against Indian bellicosity.
Musharraf had buckled under American pressure and he took a u turn on Afghanistan and Pakistan had to pay a heavy price and is still suffering the consequences. He again capitulated in 2002 and ceded far too many concessions to India. Zardari and Gilani are now under test. It will be seen how they behave under duress and whether they too would barter away the sovereignty of Pakistan to stay in power or stand their ground and make the nation proud.
Asif Haroon Raja: is a defence and political analyst and writes regularly for national and foreign newspapers.
- Asian Tribune -
Offence is best defence against Indian bellicosity | Asian Tribune
